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Analysis: Is Kevin Wilson on the hot seat?


IndyHutch
  • I keep reading comments that people believe that Indiana football coach Kevin Wilson is on the hot seat in his fifth year with the Hoosiers. No winning seasons in the first four and a dismal Big Ten record have IU fans a little bit restless. Here's my take on the topic.

I keep hearing the sentiment that the 2015 season is a big year for Kevin Wilson.

IU football needs to win and it needs to win now.

More to the point, Indiana needs to go to a bowl game or Wilson may not be leading the Hoosiers in 2016.

While I understand the frustrations of Indiana football fans and the bowl-game-or-bust mentality, I’m just not in that do-or-die camp just yet when it comes to IU’s fifth-year coach.

Yes, Wilson’s 14-34 overall record in four seasons at IU is certainly not something to get excited about. Even worse is the Big Ten record in that span of 6-26.

Should the IU alumni and its fans expect more? Absolutely. But having expectations and seeing immediate results are often two different things.

I also think that IU athletic director Fred Glass is a strong believer that Wilson is the right guy for the job. He thinks Wilson can get the Hoosiers over the top.

All of that aside, I also get how Indiana fans are so tired of being told, ‘Be patient, be patient.’ Patience only goes so far. I remember a poster that was sold at a local convenience store when I was growing up that showed two vultures sitting in a tree looking down on a herd of animals below. One vulture is saying to the other, “Patience my ass, I want to kill something.’’

And yes, Indiana fans are tired of being patient when it comes to football.

The unfortunate reality is that it’s not going to be easy. Sure, IU’s recruiting classes of late have been some of the school’s best in many years. But that’s almost not a fair comparison. The reality there is that some of those old classes were so bad that it’s almost surprising that Indiana was able to win any games at all.

Recent classes have been better but it’s not like Indiana is pulling in a large number of four and five star recruits. The norm is a bunch of three’s and an occasional four-star sprinkled in.

IU also has an incredibly small margin of error. As we talked about with the J-Shun Harris situation, IU can survive a couple of player losses like that but it can’t lose its top skill players and have a chance to compete in the Eastern Division of the Big Ten. One big loss like Nate Sudfeld a year ago was simply too much for the Hoosiers to overcome.

The other problem for Indiana is the fact that it plays in a division that also includes Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State and Penn State. In order for Indiana to get to a bowl other than something like the Polian Weedeater Bowl (although that is still better than no bowl), IU will have to get to the point where it can beat one or two of those four teams on a somewhat consistent basis.

If not, that margin for error shrinks. Now you go back to that formula where you must win all of your non-conference games and then find a way to win a couple of Big Ten games. And that will soon get more difficult when the Big Ten goes to a schedule where teams will play nine conference and three non-conference games.

So I guess my take on Wilson is pretty simple. As long as Indiana doesn’t do a complete belly flop this year (something that could always force an athletic director’s hand), I think Wilson will likely be back beyond the 2015 season.

That may not be the news that some Indiana fans want to hear but I think it’s the truth. The problem with making a change is that when you do so you often have to wait another three or four years before the new coach gets his own players and has a chance to be successful.

Wilson, in his fifth year, now has his own players and Indiana fans simply have to hope that those players are good enough to get Indiana to just its second bowl game in more than 20 years.

@IndySportsHutch

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The only way he is on the hot seat is if we underachieve and don't make it to a bowl game. 

 

That's kind of what I was alluding to initially. I think it would take a belly flop.

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No extension for Wilson until he's down to one year left and that is only with a bowl game the next 2 years.

If he goes to a bowl game and then we just regress back I will have to just say the bowl was a fluke

So essentially we take a chickenshit approach, hamstringing him in recruiting, so that even if he gets it done the next two years, we've kicked the wheels out from under him for several more years. Now there is a wonderful plan. There will always be unknowns in this, if we have continued improvement, I think we have to make the extension decision quicker than that. 

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So essentially we take a chickens--- approach, hamstringing him in recruiting, so that even if he gets it done the next two years, we've kicked the wheels out from under him for several more years. Now there is a wonderful plan. There will always be unknowns in this, if we have continued improvement, I think we have to make the extension decision quicker than that. 

Agreed, you can't have a lame duck coach. That's why buyouts are minimal at best in the last 2-3 years of a long term contract.

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If he makes a bowl and we don't extend he will leave. No coach can't be expected to recruit at a high level bring in a lame duck status.

If he gets to a bowl and you believe he is the guy, then you extend. If not move on. You can't just let the contract run out.



He's not going to leave with 2 years left. Just because we go to a bowl doesn't mean people are going to be jumping to give him better offers. He'd have to go 7-5 for a decade to hit .500

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That's the problem, no one wants to play for Indiana because they don't win. It's a cycle of losing.

Except that, you know, we have grabbed a bunch of 3 and 4 stars the last few years, finished in the Top 40-50 nationally up around teams like Mizzou and Baylor, and finished in the top half of the B1G. People seem to be ignoring this for some reason, deferring back to the WOE IS ME crap because our class has started out slow (as it does annually). We've finally put some momentum together...it's time to win.

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No extension for Wilson until he's down to one year left and that is only with a bowl game the next 2 years.

If he goes to a bowl game and then we just regress back I will have to just say the bowl was a fluke

Yeah, no. If he gets us to a bowl, he's getting an extension.

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He's not going to leave with 2 years left. Just because we go to a bowl doesn't mean people are going to be jumping to give him better offers. He'd have to go 7-5 for a decade to hit .500


It has more to do with recruiting and perception than anything. Continue to build off improvement.

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He's not going to leave with 2 years left. Just because we go to a bowl doesn't mean people are going to be jumping to give him better offers. He'd have to go 7-5 for a decade to hit .500

No one would care about his overall record. If he takes us to 7-8 wins, it would get a lot of attention. This is looked at as an impossible job. Wilson is pretty well respected.

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No one would care about his overall record. If he takes us to 7-8 wins, it would get a lot of attention. This is looked at as an impossible job. Wilson is pretty well respected.


Anybody can have a good year I'm sorry his track record of failure more that outweighs a potential single season mediocre. I still seriously doubt we even get that

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Anybody can have a good year I'm sorry his track record of failure more that outweighs a potential single season mediocre. I still seriously doubt we even get that

Anybody can have a good year? Maybe in some other places but not at Indiana. I don't understand why some people are so down on Coach Wilson; he had to start from zero after inheriting a program with no talent, no pride, and no desire to win from Lynch. How many players left the program after he came in? I think it was in the double digits. I assume that's what would happen if all of the sudden we got rid of Wilson and brought in another coach. It would be like starting all over again, although with better talent to work with.

It takes time to build a consistent program and no one can deny that unlike the Lynch era, the program has been moving in the right direction under Wilson. It took Cutcliffe 5 seasons to get to a bowl game at Duke. He was 15-33 through his first four seasons at Duke, which is fairly similar to Wilson's 14-34. This is the year to start winning some of those close games though and get over that hump. Let's Dig In!!! lol

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So under Lynch who went 5-7 his 4th year. Wilson has the program moving in the right direction.

And I might buy the lack of talent argument if he had presided over the worst defense in big ten history his first year but not his 3rd year.

Now if he does make a bowl I am not saying fire him. But it would be dumb to extend him because of one good season *cough* crean *cough*. He's still have 2 years left see if he can sustain the momentum before extending him.

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So under Lynch who went 5-7 his 4th year. Wilson has the program moving in the right direction.

And I might buy the lack of talent argument if he had presided over the worst defense in big ten history his first year but not his 3rd year.

Now if he does make a bowl I am not saying fire him. But it would be dumb to extend him because of one good season *cough* crean *cough*. He's still have 2 years left see if he can sustain the momentum before extending him.

 

I really believe unless this team was absolutely awful that you wait and see the results this year and then you give him an extension. Like a lot of other people, I had my concerns about Wilson that first year. It seemed like a lot of people were leaving because they didn't like his system. But sometimes you have to do the weeding out process and I think he has a room full of kids who like the things he's doing. I think he has a good staff and a staff that the recent signing classes feel good about. Now IU just needs to catch a break or two. They need to make the one big fourth quarter stop that allows them to close out a game. They need to avoid the injury bug to key players. They need to have some success and build off of it. But if they do have success, even if it's one year, I think you give Wilson an extension. Because it is hard to recruit with just two years left on your contract and the university sitting there in wait-and-see mode.

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Wilson is a good coach and will be successful when he moves on. I guess at some point you have to make the change. But, it is more about the program sucking as a whole than any one coach.

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Wilson is a good coach and will be successful when he moves on. I guess at some point you have to make the change. But, it is more about the program sucking as a whole than any one coach.


Not sure I buy that Hep built a team that probably would have gone 9-3 with him instead of lynch.

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You never put your coach in lame duck status.  Extend or fire.  6-6 or better and I would think it will be the former.

 

Lame duck status for the coach is just handicapping him and delaying the inevitable firing that will happen with the reduced ability to recruit.

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Not sure I buy that Hep built a team that probably would have gone 9-3 with him instead of lynch.


That's a terrible argument. If my aunt had a penis she'd be my uncle. She doesn't. So who cares. Coulda, woulda, shoulda's are not sound basis for any argument.

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That's a terrible argument. If my aunt had a penis she'd be my uncle. She doesn't. So who cares. Coulda, woulda, shoulda's are not sound basis for any argument.


Ok how about Hep did build a team that went 7-5 in 3 years. So don't blame the program.

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You never put your coach in lame duck status. Extend or file. 6-6 or better and I would think it will be the former.

Lame duck status for the coach is just handicapping him and delaying the inevitable firing that will happen with the reduced ability to recruit.


Guess I don't buy having 2 years left as lame duck

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In a common scenario where a recruit is choosing between 2 schools and where coaching staff is important to him, which coach has a major leg up on landing the recruit?

 

A) Coach with a contract long enough that you would be coached by him during your college career

B) Coach with a contract for 2 years with a decision likely coming after 1 year

 

You're going to have a hard time convincing me that recruiting for Coach B is going to go very well.

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