Captain Kirkwood's Pep Talk: Iowa Hawkeyes

Imagine you're not an Indiana fan. Imagine you're a fan of some ordinary, historically decent football team. Now imagine your team is 3-2 with one win against a ranked opponent, only two of your remaining seven foes are ranked and you play in the lowly Big Ten to boot.

You're finishing 8-4 right? I'll take 10-2 and a trip to Pasadena, please.

You don't need to stretch your imagination in order to envision the Hoosiers walking out of Kinnick with a "W" on Saturday. In the last decade, there's only one B1G opponent the Hoosiers have had more success against than the Hawkeyes (Illinois). Shockingly, the Hoosiers have won almost half of their games at Iowa since Kirk Ferentz came to Iowa City a million years ago (winning 5 of 12). It'd actually be an even 50 percent had it not been for the "Immaculate Comback" back in 2009 #neverforget.

Oh, now the memories are flooding back. Remember when Will Meyers had a spectacular one-handed interception to end the game against the 15th ranked Hawkeyes in 2006?

Or how about Kevin Wilson's first B1G win in 2012 against the Hawks when some young guy named Cody Latimer hauled in three touchdowns from some other guy named Cam Coffman.

YouTube is just writing this article for me.

But seriously, ESPN's fancy pants statistics say Iowa only has a 52% chance at winning this game. Basically a toss up. Vegas has the Hawkeyes as mere three point favorites. Basically a toss up. Why? Why is this game always closer than it's supposed to be?

Mostly for this reason: Indiana's great weakness has been its defense for what seems like forever. Their biggest weakness's biggest weakness has been giving up the big play. Lucky for the Hoosiers, Kirk Ferentz doesn't believe in the big play. He's a "grind it out" on the ground kind of guy. Kind of like Wisconsin, but without the really good running backs. It's been an offensive approach that has been much easier for the Indiana defense to handle than anything else they face in the conference.

This year is no different. The Hawkeyes have used two quarterbacks and neither one has been impressive throwing the ball. They instead have relied on their slow and steady ground game, but that old reliable rushing attack has struggled this year. They don't have a running back averaging better than 4.00 yards per carry, and the team is ranked 103 in yards per carry and 91st in yards per game. In other words, their bread and butter has been more like dry, burnt toast this year.

Perhaps the biggest question Saturday will be whether or not Wilson bites on Ferentz's trap. Iowa is big on the "bend-but-don't-break" style of defense. Their main goal is to keep opponents in front of them in order to prevent the big play. Essentially testing their opponent's patience. Daring them to want more than what the defense is giving them. That sounds like a trap Wilson, a man not known for his patience, might walk straight into.

The Hoosiers are ranked 119th in their ability to put together methodical drives. Some more sobering stats, Indiana is 88th in offensive red zone efficiency while the Hawkeyes are 3rd in defensive red zone efficiency. So basically Ferentz is going to bank on Wilson losing patience and trying to bust a big play and then again to go for it on fourth in the red zone instead of taking the points (we've seent this).

Wilson might bite, Coleman may struggle against a top 10 rushing defense, but the Hoosiers will be fine. Iowa is 100th in scoring offense. They only score 22.6 points per game. They haven't scored more than 24 against any FBS opponents. The Hoosier offense looked resurrected last week. As long as the offense keeps it up, and the defense keeps Iowa around their average...roses.

INDIANA 31 IOWA 21

@CappinKirkwood