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Analysis: Is Kevin Wilson on the hot seat?


IndyHutch
  • I keep reading comments that people believe that Indiana football coach Kevin Wilson is on the hot seat in his fifth year with the Hoosiers. No winning seasons in the first four and a dismal Big Ten record have IU fans a little bit restless. Here's my take on the topic.

I keep hearing the sentiment that the 2015 season is a big year for Kevin Wilson.

IU football needs to win and it needs to win now.

More to the point, Indiana needs to go to a bowl game or Wilson may not be leading the Hoosiers in 2016.

While I understand the frustrations of Indiana football fans and the bowl-game-or-bust mentality, I’m just not in that do-or-die camp just yet when it comes to IU’s fifth-year coach.

Yes, Wilson’s 14-34 overall record in four seasons at IU is certainly not something to get excited about. Even worse is the Big Ten record in that span of 6-26.

Should the IU alumni and its fans expect more? Absolutely. But having expectations and seeing immediate results are often two different things.

I also think that IU athletic director Fred Glass is a strong believer that Wilson is the right guy for the job. He thinks Wilson can get the Hoosiers over the top.

All of that aside, I also get how Indiana fans are so tired of being told, ‘Be patient, be patient.’ Patience only goes so far. I remember a poster that was sold at a local convenience store when I was growing up that showed two vultures sitting in a tree looking down on a herd of animals below. One vulture is saying to the other, “Patience my ass, I want to kill something.’’

And yes, Indiana fans are tired of being patient when it comes to football.

The unfortunate reality is that it’s not going to be easy. Sure, IU’s recruiting classes of late have been some of the school’s best in many years. But that’s almost not a fair comparison. The reality there is that some of those old classes were so bad that it’s almost surprising that Indiana was able to win any games at all.

Recent classes have been better but it’s not like Indiana is pulling in a large number of four and five star recruits. The norm is a bunch of three’s and an occasional four-star sprinkled in.

IU also has an incredibly small margin of error. As we talked about with the J-Shun Harris situation, IU can survive a couple of player losses like that but it can’t lose its top skill players and have a chance to compete in the Eastern Division of the Big Ten. One big loss like Nate Sudfeld a year ago was simply too much for the Hoosiers to overcome.

The other problem for Indiana is the fact that it plays in a division that also includes Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State and Penn State. In order for Indiana to get to a bowl other than something like the Polian Weedeater Bowl (although that is still better than no bowl), IU will have to get to the point where it can beat one or two of those four teams on a somewhat consistent basis.

If not, that margin for error shrinks. Now you go back to that formula where you must win all of your non-conference games and then find a way to win a couple of Big Ten games. And that will soon get more difficult when the Big Ten goes to a schedule where teams will play nine conference and three non-conference games.

So I guess my take on Wilson is pretty simple. As long as Indiana doesn’t do a complete belly flop this year (something that could always force an athletic director’s hand), I think Wilson will likely be back beyond the 2015 season.

That may not be the news that some Indiana fans want to hear but I think it’s the truth. The problem with making a change is that when you do so you often have to wait another three or four years before the new coach gets his own players and has a chance to be successful.

Wilson, in his fifth year, now has his own players and Indiana fans simply have to hope that those players are good enough to get Indiana to just its second bowl game in more than 20 years.

@IndySportsHutch

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Anybody can have a good year I'm sorry his track record of failure more that outweighs a potential single season mediocre. I still seriously doubt we even get that

Ok, you seriously have no idea what you are talking about. I didn't say he would just get handed the keys to some SEC job, but he would absolutely get a lot of interest. His "track record of failure" is at a traditionally poor program. This isn't a video game where you take 5 seconds to briefly look at stats and then move on.

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Wilson is a good coach and will be successful when he moves on. I guess at some point you have to make the change. But, it is more about the program sucking as a whole than any one coach.

You keep saying this, It's a hard job, but it's not like we should just disband the program. We're close.

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Not sure I buy that Hep built a team that probably would have gone 9-3 with him instead of lynch.

Based on what? I love Hep. I miss him. But there were fans calling him Coach Hype after his first game where we nearly lost to Nicholls State and went and gave up 60+ points to a bad Minnesota team. He wasn't a miracle worker.

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Yes and no. We haven't won but we've had the most exciting teams we've had in years. Wilson has also gotten the best recruiting classes Indiana has ever gotten. I don't Indiana had ever gotten a 4 star til Wilson got Sudfeld. But eventually there have to be results. There needs to be improvement shown on the defensive side especially. His situation is a tough one. Indiana is historically the worst college football program ever. So how good of a coach can we really get? Plus being in the B1G East with Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State and Penn State... what coach wants to go up against that? We're not going to be able to just go hire Nick Saban and be title contenders after 3 years. We have to get a coach that can make it happen with 3 stars and a couple 4 stars to get us 3 conference wins a year along with 3 or 4 OOC wins.


I would think being in the B1G East would attract a higher quality candidate coach. Our division is right up there with the SEC West and PAC-12 South as the best in college football. If you're a coach who wants to quickly move up, you want a challenge of playing the best. Players want to play against the best to get noticed, the same should be for a coach. Playing in front of enormous crowds at Michigan, OSU, PSU and MSU, access to big markets in the East; the division is an enormous draw for a coach. If a coach is able to turn Indiana around in three to four years, he'd have his choice of any top job in the nation.

Even the worst SEC schools get the best coaching prospects. I think the same would apply to us in the B1G East. Honestly, I don't want a coach who wouldn't be thrilled by the challenge of trying to beat big names such as Harbaugh, Meyer, Dantonio or Franklin on an annual basis.

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I would think being in the B1G East would attract a higher quality candidate coach. Our division is right up there with the SEC West and PAC-12 South as the best in college football. If you're a coach who wants to quickly move up, you want a challenge of playing the best. Players want to play against the best to get noticed, the same should be for a coach. Playing in front of enormous crowds at Michigan, OSU, PSU and MSU, access to big markets in the East; the division is an enormous draw for a coach. If a coach is able to turn Indiana around in three to four years, he'd have his choice of any top job in the nation.

Even the worst SEC schools get the best coaching prospects. I think the same would apply to us in the B1G East. Honestly, I don't want a coach who wouldn't be thrilled by the challenge of trying to beat big names such as Harbaugh, Meyer, Dantonio or Franklin on an annual basis.

I really want to agree with your statements, but I find myself unable to.  I don't think you can compare IU Football to even the worst of the SEC teams.  Even the worst of those programs is a major upgrade from IU football. 

If we had traditionally had even a minimal amount of success I would tend to agree with you, that playing in the B1G East is a draw for a coach. I love Indiana, but I can't see how any successful head coach, from a power conference, would even consider coming to IU. 

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Myself, I happen to think Kevin Wilson is a pretty good coach. When you're around someone and you hear them talk about football, you get a pretty good idea to make that assessment. But being a good coach doesn't necessarily mean you're going to be able to step into a struggling situation and quickly turn it around. And if you don't have immediate success, you're always going to have someone at your door thinking that you need to move on or the university needs to let you go. I just think that's a short sighted view. The follow up question to that is always, "So how many years should he be given to turn something around?"  And unfortunately, I don't think there's a set answer to that question. I think every program is different. And I think a program that has had as little success as this one in the last two decades in clearly different in a multitude of ways.

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Myself, I happen to think Kevin Wilson is a pretty good coach. When you're around someone and you hear them talk about football, you get a pretty good idea to make that assessment. But being a good coach doesn't necessarily mean you're going to be able to step into a struggling situation and quickly turn it around. And if you don't have immediate success, you're always going to have someone at your door thinking that you need to move on or the university needs to let you go. I just think that's a short sighted view. The follow up question to that is always, "So how many years should he be given to turn something around?"  And unfortunately, I don't think there's a set answer to that question. I think every program is different. And I think a program that has had as little success as this one in the last two decades in clearly different in a multitude of ways.

Terry:  I think almost everyone agrees with you.  Where the question comes like you say is "How many years??"

I guess that is why we pay our AD so much money.  I personally have a lot more tolerance for the Football program vs the Basketball program.  :)

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Terry:  I think almost everyone agrees with you.  Where the question comes like you say is "How many years??"

I guess that is why we pay our AD so much money.  I personally have a lot more tolerance for the Football program vs the Basketball program.  :)

 

I would think most people do. But then the expectations for the basketball program are at a completely different level than football. And if they aren't they probably should be. Until Indiana has had any kind of sustained level of winning in football, it's just hard for there to be any kind of lofty expectations. The "hope" for Indiana football for a long time has been to find a way to get to six wins so that the potential for bowl eligibility would be there. It's all about baby steps. Basketball is a different animal. And it likely always will be.

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I really want to agree with your statements, but I find myself unable to. I don't think you can compare IU Football to even the worst of the SEC teams. Even the worst of those programs is a major upgrade from IU football.

If we had traditionally had even a minimal amount of success I would tend to agree with you, that playing in the B1G East is a draw for a coach. I love Indiana, but I can't see how any successful head coach, from a power conference, would even consider coming to IU.

Good points. To clarify my previous post, I don't think IU is drawing any successful head coach from any of the other power conferences. Granted a successful coach at another P5 school is only going to leave his current school if a top job opens. However, a top OC/DC? Absolutely I think we are an attractive option, even if the coach sees us as a stepping stone for a better job done the line. Then again, CKW was a top OC at an elite program...

While Indiana football itself is not more attractive then when CKW took the job, the B1G is much stronger than it was four years ago, especially the East division. Big name coaches are in the division, big crowds and Rutgers and Maryland offer access to big markets and furtive recruiting grounds. I know CKW has been using the East division as a recruiting tool, and we've starting to see better recruits the past couple of years.

With all that said, this is a big year for CKW. I know the record is the bottom line, but if the offense can get back to 2013 form, and the defense shows improvement I think you have to keep him. We have positive recruiting momentum, and starting over would halt that unless you got a HC with name recognition. The important thing is we are getting better at every position, and as long as we keep building on that it makes no sense to stop the progress, even if the progress is slow.

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Good points. To clarify my previous post, I don't think IU is drawing any successful head coach from any of the other power conferences. Granted a successful coach at another P5 school is only going to leave his current school if a top job opens. However, a top OC/DC? Absolutely I think we are an attractive option, even if the coach sees us as a stepping stone for a better job done the line. Then again, CKW was a top OC at an elite program...

While Indiana football itself is not more attractive then when CKW took the job, the B1G is much stronger than it was four years ago, especially the East division. Big name coaches are in the division, big crowds and Rutgers and Maryland offer access to big markets and furtive recruiting grounds. I know CKW has been using the East division as a recruiting tool, and we've starting to see better recruits the past couple of years.

With all that said, this is a big year for CKW. I know the record is the bottom line, but if the offense can get back to 2013 form, and the defense shows improvement I think you have to keep him. We have positive recruiting momentum, and starting over would halt that unless you got a HC with name recognition. The important thing is we are getting better at every position, and as long as we keep building on that it makes no sense to stop the progress, even if the progress is slow.

 

I think you make a lot of really good points.And what you say about the strength of the division is spot on, too. And sure, if and when IU is looking for a new coach again I would think the range of candidates would probably be very similar to where it was the last time when, as you say, IU picked up a OC from an elite program. But in many ways that's another reason why I wouldn't be in a hurry to move too quickly here. It's not as if there's an elite level coach out there who is chomping at the bit to become the next IU football coach. I suppose that's a possibility but that would surprise me.

 

I would agree it's an important season for Kevin Wilson and his staff. I'm still not ready to say, however, that it's bowl game or bust this year that will determine his future at IU.

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Girls please put the claws away. Knock it off with the personal attacks.

Sorry about that.

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So my post gets deleted he gets to edit his. That some bs

Hutch I get that Wilson may understand football extremely well. But that doesn't make him a leader. Yeah you have to be a leader to be a successful coach.

And the problems we are seeing shenanigans off the field and inconsistent play on the field tell me the problem is with leadership.

And while he understands football I think the pressure of the games gets to him and hinders his decisions.

Understanding how something works and getting it to work are 2 very different things. And historically Wilson has not been able to win the game of football. He went winless in his stint as a high school coach for gods sake.

I get that Wilson came into a tough situation. But at the end of the day after 4 years we are still completely reliant on our QBs health and a cakewalk ooc schedule to have any chance at a bowl.

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So my post gets deleted he gets to edit his. That some bs

Hutch I get that Wilson may understand football extremely well. But that doesn't make him a leader. Yeah you have to be a leader to be a successful coach.

And the problems we are seeing shenanigans off the field and inconsistent play on the field tell me the problem is with leadership.

And while he understands football I think the pressure of the games gets to him and hinders his decisions.

Understanding how something works and getting it to work are 2 very different things. And historically Wilson has not been able to win the game of football. He went winless in his stint as a high school coach for gods sake.

I get that Wilson came into a tough situation. But at the end of the day after 4 years we are still completely reliant on our QBs health and a cakewalk ooc schedule to have any chance at a bowl.

I understand your points on his team management skills. While I am a CKW supporter, I want to add to your points: how different is last season if Cam Coffman and Tre Roberson stay? If OSU is able to keep three starting QBs who could start at any other school in the nation, how can we not keep two guys who have to go to an FCS school to play?

If CKW could have convinced one of these guys to stay, we would have still been competitive after Sudfeld went down. Instead, because we didn't have a legitimate backup, the season instantly was lost. With Austin King, and Peyton Ramsey coming in next year, hopefully our QB depth is restocked and we won't run into that problem again.

Not having a legitimate QB recruit for either the 2013 or 2014 classes came back to hurt us. An offense like the one CKW runs should have no shortage of QBs who want to come and run it to put up big numbers.

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I understand your points on his team management skills. While I am a CKW supporter, I want to add to your points: how different is last season if Cam Coffman and Tre Roberson stay? If OSU is able to keep three starting QBs who could start at any other school in the nation, how can we not keep two guys who have to go to an FCS school to play?

If CKW could have convinced one of these guys to stay, we would have still been competitive after Sudfeld went down. Instead, because we didn't have a legitimate backup, the season instantly was lost. With Austin King, and Peyton Ramsey coming in next year, hopefully our QB depth is restocked and we won't run into that problem again.

Not having a legitimate QB recruit for either the 2013 or 2014 classes came back to hurt us. An offense like the one CKW runs should have no shortage of QBs who want to come and run it to put up big numbers.

 

Tre and Cam can obviously play D1 football.  The reason they went the FCS route was because they would have had to sit out a year (again), losing a year of eligibility for both, where in the FCS, they could play right away.  They wanted to be the man, but with a healthy Sudfeld, they weren't going to be.

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Tre and Cam can obviously play D1 football. The reason they went the FCS route was because they would have had to sit out a year (again), losing a year of eligibility for both, where in the FCS, they could play right away. They wanted to be the man, but with a healthy Sudfeld, they weren't going to be.


Right, let me clarify. I didn't mean from a talent standpoint one bit. I meant they wanted to leave so bad that they decided to go FCS. There are plenty of backup QBs across the nation who are capable of starting for other teams or could go FCS and play immediately. That's all I was saying.

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Right, let me clarify. I didn't mean from a talent standpoint one bit. I meant they wanted to leave so bad that they decided to go FCS. There are plenty of backup QBs across the nation who are capable of starting for other teams or could go FCS and play immediately. That's all I was saying.

 

I don't know if they 'wanted to leave so badly' but rather 'wanted to play so badly right now'.  If they (or one of them) knew that Suds would have been injured, they (or one) would have stayed.  They wanted to play now and not wait.  Some have patience, others don't.  This isn't 100% on CKW IMO.

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I don't know if they 'wanted to leave so badly' but rather 'wanted to play so badly right now'.  If they (or one of them) knew that Suds would have been injured, they (or one) would have stayed.  They wanted to play now and not wait.  Some have patience, others don't.  This isn't 100% on CKW IMO.

But not having a capable backup willing to be a backup and wait for there chance is on him.

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But not having a capable backup willing to be a backup and wait for there chance is on him.

 

So he was to anticipate that two backup QBs would skedaddle?  That's practically unheard of.

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