Analysis: Is Kevin Wilson on the hot seat?

I keep hearing the sentiment that the 2015 season is a big year for Kevin Wilson.

IU football needs to win and it needs to win now.

More to the point, Indiana needs to go to a bowl game or Wilson may not be leading the Hoosiers in 2016.

While I understand the frustrations of Indiana football fans and the bowl-game-or-bust mentality, I’m just not in that do-or-die camp just yet when it comes to IU’s fifth-year coach.

Yes, Wilson’s 14-34 overall record in four seasons at IU is certainly not something to get excited about. Even worse is the Big Ten record in that span of 6-26.

Should the IU alumni and its fans expect more? Absolutely. But having expectations and seeing immediate results are often two different things.

I also think that IU athletic director Fred Glass is a strong believer that Wilson is the right guy for the job. He thinks Wilson can get the Hoosiers over the top.

All of that aside, I also get how Indiana fans are so tired of being told, ‘Be patient, be patient.’ Patience only goes so far. I remember a poster that was sold at a local convenience store when I was growing up that showed two vultures sitting in a tree looking down on a herd of animals below. One vulture is saying to the other, “Patience my ass, I want to kill something.’’

And yes, Indiana fans are tired of being patient when it comes to football.

The unfortunate reality is that it’s not going to be easy. Sure, IU’s recruiting classes of late have been some of the school’s best in many years. But that’s almost not a fair comparison. The reality there is that some of those old classes were so bad that it’s almost surprising that Indiana was able to win any games at all.

Recent classes have been better but it’s not like Indiana is pulling in a large number of four and five star recruits. The norm is a bunch of three’s and an occasional four-star sprinkled in.

IU also has an incredibly small margin of error. As we talked about with the J-Shun Harris situation, IU can survive a couple of player losses like that but it can’t lose its top skill players and have a chance to compete in the Eastern Division of the Big Ten. One big loss like Nate Sudfeld a year ago was simply too much for the Hoosiers to overcome.

The other problem for Indiana is the fact that it plays in a division that also includes Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State and Penn State. In order for Indiana to get to a bowl other than something like the Polian Weedeater Bowl (although that is still better than no bowl), IU will have to get to the point where it can beat one or two of those four teams on a somewhat consistent basis.

If not, that margin for error shrinks. Now you go back to that formula where you must win all of your non-conference games and then find a way to win a couple of Big Ten games. And that will soon get more difficult when the Big Ten goes to a schedule where teams will play nine conference and three non-conference games.

So I guess my take on Wilson is pretty simple. As long as Indiana doesn’t do a complete belly flop this year (something that could always force an athletic director’s hand), I think Wilson will likely be back beyond the 2015 season.

That may not be the news that some Indiana fans want to hear but I think it’s the truth. The problem with making a change is that when you do so you often have to wait another three or four years before the new coach gets his own players and has a chance to be successful.

Wilson, in his fifth year, now has his own players and Indiana fans simply have to hope that those players are good enough to get Indiana to just its second bowl game in more than 20 years.

@IndySportsHutch