Bracketology and Team Resumes

[BGVille Hoosierfan]

One more win and we are in almost certainly. The best bracketologist had us as a 9 before we won today. 

6 Quad 1 wins for IU now and is good for 2nd most in college basketball. With ZERO Quad 3/4 losses, IU is in A LOT better shape than most realize. Very well could lose out and still get in. Win at least one more whether it’s in the B1G Tourney or regular season and they are LOCKED in.

 

 

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[Uspshoosier]

Where things stand 3 weeks before selection Sunday. Iu picked up a top 25 NET at home today to add to the top 51 NET road win they got earlier in the week. This one was big just to show IU can string together solid wins back to back. Something they haven’t done in over a month. IU is currently in a stretch where they have played 9 straight games against the NET top 51 with 4 more games against NET top 51 teams. That will be 13 straight games against top 51 teams. I’m sure the numbers will change but I think you get my point That is a ridiculous stretch for anyone. Currently IU is 4-5 during that stretch. I can’t emphasize enough how crazy that is. To put that into perspective the ACC leader Duke has only played 2 top 50 NET teams in conference as of today(they only had to play Florida St and Louisville once). Their only other game against a top 50 team in conference will be Virginia(50).

 

I know some have said that just making the tourney this year won’t be enough but for me looking at the numbers if IU makes the tourney in my opinion that is a step in the right direction. This is a gauntlet that IU is going through right now. Good basketball, bad basketball, good coaching, bad coaching, positive fans or negative fans if IU makes the tournament this year this team deserves recognition from all of us. If they don’t make they tourney then I’m guessing all bets are off. Lol.

 

Breaking down the numbers even more today

 

18-9

NET-58

 

Q1a-2-7

 

Wins(12,13)

 

Losses(7, @7, @22, @23, @24, @30, @33) 6 losses to top 35 teams on the road

 

Dukes hardest road game in conference so far was @ NC State which is 52 and they lost by 22

 

Q1b- 4-0

 

Wins(22, 24, 27, @51)

 

Q2a-2-2

 

Wins(neutral- 59,69)

Losses( 37,45 at home)

 

Q3- 3-0

Wins-(91, 118, @186)

Q4- 7-0

 

Sos- 42

Non con sos-79

 

SOR-26

Bpi-40

Ken Pom- 39

Sag-31

Avg NET win-126

Avg NET loss- 25

 

Remaining games

@37

@35

51

30

 

For me IU is a 8 seed at worst and when I look at things closer I might move them to the 7 line after I scrub the seed lines.

 

Bottom line since the Sparty win nothing has change for me on my outlook for IU

 

Get 10 wins or more during regular season in B1G and they were playing for seeding

 

Win 9 and they will be comfortably in the tournament

 

Win 8 and they would be on the bubble with a good chance at making it. I wouldn’t recommend IU to lose out but if they do they could possibly still make the dance depending on what other teams do around them.

 

Enjoy the win tonight guys. I’m looking forward to tuning in to B1G basketball and beyond tonight to see what their thoughts are on today’s game.

 

I will be dropping a top 36 and some mid major teams to monitor sometime this week.

 

 

 

 

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[BGVille Hoosierfan]

So refreshing to have USPS’s takes on here and someone who truly understands college basketball as well as bracketology. So many people think there’s a magic number (20) with a winning conference record is what gets you into the tourney. I’ve argued with people a handful of times about this and they just don’t understand the inner workings of tourney selections and what is valued and I feel like I’m just wasting my breath on these people. So thank you USPS for providing your insight and knowledge of the game and tourney process. We can always count on you.


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[Deserthoozier]

Haven’t read many of the posts above, but the NET looks like complete trash! How are we 58 - even before today’s win - when compared to some many other team’s with higher NET! Just looking at VCU immediately above at 57....1 net win. I get they don’t get the opportunities— but their record/ wins are crap. Input on how this (NET) influences tourney inclusion and seeding?

[Uspshoosier]

Haven’t read many of the posts above, but the NET looks like complete trash! How are we 58 - even before today’s win - when compared to some many other team’s with higher NET! Just looking at VCU immediately above at 57....1 net win. I get they don’t get the opportunities— but their record/ wins are crap. Input on how this (NET) influences tourney inclusion and seeding?

Overall NET number is used as a sorting tool. It will group teams together and then they will dive deeper into the numbers. Net number isn’t going to get you in the tournament, the numbers in your team sheet are. Last year St. John’s got an at large bid with a NET 73 while Nc state, Clemson and Texas got left out while having NET numbers in the 30’s. Don’t get hung up on the overall NET number. With any system there will always be outliers within the numbers. This year IU’s NET number looks to be an outlier compared to where others have them.


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[Hovadipo]

USPS delivers as always, and ours even delivers on Sunday night! Thank you for the write-up. Great stuff. 

[Uspshoosier]

IU moved 6 spots to 52 after the Penn St win

Minny jumped 9 spots 41 after their northwestern win on the road



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[IUc2016]

IU moved 6 spots to 52 after the Penn St win

Minny jumped 9 spots 41 after their northwestern win on the road



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While IU only moved up 4 spots after they beat Minnesota on the road.

Weird.

[HoosierAloha]

That’s just plain goofy. Is the algorithm weighted that much by how efficient (off/def) you play? There’s too much data available for the algorithm not to have been cracked.


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[darB s'tI]

I like how we're positioned. One, it's very good when IU is in the tournament. Our fans watch and travel. The selection committee knows that. Two, forget the NET rankings, Lunardi and all the others that like to play games before the season is over. Just last week "Purdue was a lock" to make it on several sites. Give me a break. We have a strong case to make the tournament and can only improve from here. No bad losses, quite a few great wins and a huge win over FSU. I see three scenarios: We finish very strong: Win both home games, possibly win in Lafayette and maybe pick off a B1G tournament game. And with that, we get a 6 seed. We play as expected, go 2-2 to finish the season and *maybe show up for a game in the B1G, 8-9 seed.  We lay an egg, go 1-3 in our final games and lose our first B1G game.  10-12 seed.  Just a guess, but I'm guessing an accurate guess, wouldn't you guess?

[Feathery]

8 minutes ago, IU-DL said:

I like how we're positioned. One, it's very good when IU is in the tournament. Our fans watch and travel. The selection committee knows that. Two, forget the NET rankings, Lunardi and all the others that like to play games before the season is over. Just last week "Purdue was a lock" to make it on several sites. Give me a break. We have a strong case to make the tournament and can only improve from here. No bad losses, quite a few great wins and a huge win over FSU. I see three scenarios: We finish very strong: Win both home games, possibly win in Lafayette and maybe pick off a B1G tournament game. And with that, we get a 6 seed. We play as expected, go 2-2 to finish the season and *maybe show up for a game in the B1G, 8-9 seed.  We lay an egg, go 1-3 in our final games and lose our first B1G game.  10-12 seed.  Just a guess, but I'm guessing an accurate guess, wouldn't you guess?

Sure, I guess. 

[BGVille Hoosierfan]

https://bracketville.wordpress.com/bracketology/

The #1 ranked bracketologist just updated his bracket this morning. For those that follow bracketology, he is a must follow. I would also advise to not even bother with Lunardi at ESPN. There’s a reason he’s not ranked in the top 50 among bracketolgoists.

 

 

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[Brass Cannon]

2 minutes ago, jbell833 said:

https://bracketville.wordpress.com/bracketology/

The #1 ranked bracketologist just updated his bracket this morning. For those that follow bracketology, he is a must follow. I would also advise to not even bother with Lunardi at ESPN. There’s a reason he’s not ranked in the top 50 among bracketolgoists.

 

 

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Not a bad bracket. No shame losing to Virginia but if we were to win good chance to go to Sweet Sixteen

[MikeRoberts]

Not a bad bracket. No shame losing to Virginia but if we were to win good chance to go to Sweet Sixteen

I don’t mind the San Diego State matchup but do not want to see Virginia in the first game.


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[GloryDays]

1 hour ago, IU-DL said:

I like how we're positioned. One, it's very good when IU is in the tournament. Our fans watch and travel. The selection committee knows that. Two, forget the NET rankings, Lunardi and all the others that like to play games before the season is over. Just last week "Purdue was a lock" to make it on several sites. Give me a break. We have a strong case to make the tournament and can only improve from here. No bad losses, quite a few great wins and a huge win over FSU. I see three scenarios: We finish very strong: Win both home games, possibly win in Lafayette and maybe pick off a B1G tournament game. And with that, we get a 6 seed. We play as expected, go 2-2 to finish the season and *maybe show up for a game in the B1G, 8-9 seed.  We lay an egg, go 1-3 in our final games and lose our first B1G game.  10-12 seed.  Just a guess, but I'm guessing an accurate guess, wouldn't you guess?

I guess your guess is as good as any guess.LOL

[Brass Cannon]

3 minutes ago, MikeRoberts said:

I don’t mind the San Diego State matchup but do not want to see Virginia in the first game.


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Yep would like to keep the 8 seed if we can stay in that bracket. But hopefully Virginia plays their way up by winning their conference tourney. 

[NashvilleHoosier]

47 minutes ago, jbell833 said:

https://bracketville.wordpress.com/bracketology/

The #1 ranked bracketologist just updated his bracket this morning. For those that follow bracketology, he is a must follow. I would also advise to not even bother with Lunardi at ESPN. There’s a reason he’s not ranked in the top 50 among bracketolgoists.

 

 

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It's funny to me how many people still think Lunardi is the go-to guy. Then it occurred to me that us IU fans have sort of been forced to understand the system and bracketologists a little more than others have over the past 2 seasons. I've personally become far more familiar with how the quad systems and NET rankings work, which bracketologists to pay attention to while laughing off Lunardi. I work with 2 Kansas fans who last season and this season have only talked about where Lunardi predicts us to be, and last season were still even talking about RPI. They're knowledgable college hoops fans, but they've never had to care about being on the bubble so they just see what Lunardi says and assume it's accurate enough. 

[raorIU]

https://bracketville.wordpress.com/bracketology/
The #1 ranked bracketologist just updated his bracket this morning. For those that follow bracketology, he is a must follow. I would also advise to not even bother with Lunardi at ESPN. There’s a reason he’s not ranked in the top 50 among bracketolgoists.
 
 
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Ohio State as a 5 seed seems high to me. What have they done to separate them so much from IU? Schedule seems near identical - both have similar class of wins/loses and an identical record.

[WayneFleekHoosier]

Ohio State as a 5 seed seems high to me. What have they done to separate them so much from IU? Schedule seems near identical - both have similar class of wins/loses and an identical record.

Big non conference wins to catapult them.

 

Villanova

Kentucky

Cincinnati

And a now bad UNC who is WAY better than their record.

 

But mostly Villanova and Kentucky.

 

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[Uspshoosier]

Big non conference wins to catapult them.

 

Villanova

Kentucky

Cincinnati

And a now bad UNC who is WAY better than their record.

 

But mostly Villanova and Kentucky.

 

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Win @ Michigan and home win vs Maryland are really good wins in conference as well

 

 

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