2024 IUFB Season

[Hovadipo]

2 minutes ago, JerryYeagley23 said:

I don’t know, I was asking you. Legitimately. Not adversarially. 
 

If your future opponents are baked in, then when you start the season they judge your whole season for strength. Then is it just adjusted each week as your future (and past?) teams played perform better or worse?

I would assume it’s a KenPom type of deal where it doesn’t really tell you a story until everyone has played some games. I’m clueless enough on this that I asked ChatGPT about ESPN’s formula:

ESPN's Strength of Schedule (SOS) metric primarily evaluates a team's opponents based on the games they have already played, as well as their current performance in the season. While the SOS metric is mainly focused on past and present opponents, it does take future opponents into account to some extent, particularly in the context of how those future opponents are performing throughout the season.

Surely someone on here has some insight on how these things work. @RaceToTheTop is a metrics guy. 

[HoosierFan1994]

3 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

If it’s anything like basketball it should change after each game played.  When teams you played play other teams there should always be some movement.    Last weeks first reveal they were 103 SOS and this week they were 100.  My guess after they  play OSU you will see a bigger jump.   That’s my take on it but I’m a basketball guy and could totally be wrong 

Unfortunately Purdue probably evens it all out. Those clowns are the only B1G team right now that is completely out of a bowl game. 

[go iu bb]

30 minutes ago, Hovadipo said:

Those scenarios all make my Hoosier palms sweat if (IF) we’re 11-1. The strength of schedule emergency chute will always be there for the committee. 

The schedule will look better by then. OSU will give it a big bump. The UCLA win is starting to look better.

[Hovadipo]

Regardless if we ever crack the SOS code, it sure seems to me like the committee is looking at SOR more than SOS, which is great news for the Hoosiers. 

[Uspshoosier]

5 minutes ago, HoosierFan1994 said:

Unfortunately Purdue probably evens it all out. Those clowns are the only B1G team right now that is completely out of a bowl game. 

It might help it actually.  Purdue has a SOS of 12 overall if committee uses ESPNs SOS. From the little research I just did IU has the 8th toughest remaining schedule.  That’s going by espns graphs 

[JerryYeagley23]

5 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

It might help it actually.  Purdue has a SOS of 12 overall if committee uses ESPNs SOS. From the little research I just did IU has the 8th toughest remaining schedule.  That’s going by espns graphs 

They must be factoring in our game against OSU and then our game against Oregon. ;)

[HoosierTrav]

On 11/4/2024 at 6:47 PM, JerryYeagley23 said:

Bare with me here. And to preface, I couldn’t be more excited about the IU football team and this season. And I’m in no way doubting them or their ability to compete at the highest level which is an incredible statement. 

BUT… was thinking about this new landscape with the expanded playoff. Do we think that there’s a possibility that finishing in the 9-12 range might be getting a little bit of a shaft from the players perspectives? I mean, great you made the playoff, huge accomplishment. But say you then “get to” travel to play a road game at Texas and lose. Is that lessor than the experience of playing in a premier bowl game and the week-long buildup and neutral warm weather site? Would winning the gator Bowl or Citrus Bowl be a bigger event for the program? Obviously the dream scenario is winning the first playoff game and getting to a Rose Bowl or Orange Bowl. But it feels to me like this might be a downside to the new system is rewarding our best season ever with an extra away game. Heck even if we get to host, it’s not a bowl game, it’s an extra home game in Bloomington in January. Anybody else feel this way at all?
 

You’re right. I guess we should just win the B1G then. 

[maharkn]

Booger loves IU
Galloway can’t stand IU
Bama at IU would blow up Bloomington but the brackets will change quite a bit over the next few weeks,
Feel confident we will make the playoffs as long as we don’t get blown out at the shoe.

Will probably be the same when the next one comes out, I don’t think bama will move after playing Mercer this weekend


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[Artie86]

 ....I will end all this "what if's" and strenght of schedule crap.... We should have kept the U of L game for this year...

Thanks (former) IU Coach Allen.....

Allen is referring to news that the Big Ten will add USC, UCLA, Oregon and Washington at the start of the 2024 football season. In short, he knows Indiana's schedule is already difficult, and it's not getting much easier, if at all, any time soon. Keeping Louisville on the schedule would add to that difficulty.Sep 19, 2023

 

[Stuhoo]

10 hours ago, Hovadipo said:

Between the CFB video game (seriously, it was a great way to see the CFP play out 5 months early), projections, and now 2 weeks of rankings, it’s been pretty clear for a while to me that the 5 seed is taking the gravy train to the semifinals. 

And if we beat OSU we're the 5 seed.

[Hovadipo]

33 minutes ago, Stuhoo said:

And if we beat OSU we're the 5 seed.

Unless, of course…………..we beat Oregon in a de facto home game and march into that mf as the #1 team in the land. 

[Stuhoo]

1 hour ago, Hovadipo said:

Unless, of course…………..we beat Oregon in a de facto home game and march into that mf as the #1 team in the land. 

So there you have it:

• We are currently the 5/7 seed. I think we're in almost for sure; maybe a 40 point loss and a squeaker over Purdue would (rightfully) kill our chances but anything better than that and we're in somewhere. 
• Lose to OSU and we beat Purdue; those would then be our last pre-playoff games and we end up somewhere in the 9-12 range. If we take OSU to the final whistle and beat down Purdue maybe we're the 7/8 seed.
• Beat OSU and lose to Oregon and we're the 5 seed.
• Beat OSU and beat Oregon and we're the overall #1 seed and #1 team in the nation.

Am I missing anything here?

[JSHoosier]

A complete turnaround, talking about CFP seeding and with Allen we wouldn't even be bowl eligible right now.

[Hovadipo]

17 minutes ago, Stuhoo said:

So there you have it:

• We are currently the 6 seed. I think we're in for almost sure; maybe a 40 point loss and a squeaker over Purdue would (rightfully) kill our chances but anything better than that and we're in somewhere. 
• Lose to OSU and we beat Purdue; those would then be our last pre-playoff games and we end up somewhere in the 9-12 range. If we take OSU to the final whistle and beat down Purdue maybe we're the 7/8 seed.
• Beat OSU and lose to Oregon and we're the 5 seed.
• Beat OSU and beat Oregon and we're the overall #1 seed and #1 team in the nation.

Am I missing anything here?

That about covers it. Your first possibility, the doomsday scenario, ends with a bunch of sad, disappointed Hoosiers and an 11 win Citrus Bowl season. With an opportunity to get to 12 against an SEC team whose entire roster has probably opted out. Pretty unbelievable. 

[8bucks]

18 minutes ago, Hovadipo said:

That about covers it. Your first possibility, the doomsday scenario, ends with a bunch of sad, disappointed Hoosiers and an 11 win Citrus Bowl season. With an opportunity to get to 12 against an SEC team whose entire roster has probably opted out. Pretty unbelievable. 

This would be disappointing but hopefully this becomes sort of the new normal.  Getting to bowl games, typically good bowl games, and hopefully Cig can continue to add pieces such that we are part of the championship discussion here and there.  If we end up with just those results, that is awesome and it will become clear that I was the jinx.  Once I changed companies, was not a corporate sponsor getting all the tickets I wanted for bad teams (basketball and football), and even left the state I may have finally broke the jinx.  

[DChoosier]

11 hours ago, Uspshoosier said:

It might help it actually.  Purdue has a SOS of 12 overall if committee uses ESPNs SOS. From the little research I just did IU has the 8th toughest remaining schedule.  That’s going by espns graphs 

But that same ESPN ranking has PU ranked 113th.  

When we play PU doesn’t their ranking, for purposes of our strength of schedule, carry much more weight than their SOS. I just can’t imagine us getting a bump for beating the 113th ranked team at home.

[TTT]

Beat OSU and Purdue, and proceed on to Oregon and proceed on.

(throw deep vs OSU).

[go iu bb]

1 hour ago, Artie86 said:

 ....I will end all this "what if's" and strenght of schedule crap.... We should have kept the U of L game for this year...

Thanks (former) IU Coach Allen.....

Allen is referring to news that the Big Ten will add USC, UCLA, Oregon and Washington at the start of the 2024 football season. In short, he knows Indiana's schedule is already difficult, and it's not getting much easier, if at all, any time soon. Keeping Louisville on the schedule would add to that difficulty.Sep 19, 2023

 

The schedule looked much tougher last year than it turned out to be. Michigan and Washington were both top 5/10 teams all season and played for the national championship. Then both got new coaches.

A road game at UCLA, a team which won 7 games plus their bowl game last year.  (They are playing better and may end up in a bowl game.)

A Nebraska team many thought would be improved. They are, just not as much as it initially appeared.

Road game at OSU. This one still holds up as a tough game.

So I can see why there was that thought that the schedule would be much tougher this year than it turned out to be. I personally had (still don't) no problem dropping the UL game for a sure win. I've said for a long time that if IU has 3 non-con wins, they just need 3 B1G wins to get to a bowl game.

[hoosiersoxfan]

Find a way to win in Colombus and we are looking at the 1 or 5 seed.  1 seed would be ideal of course, but 5 seed would be fun giving IU an extra home game against most likely Boise State and then a quarterfinal matchup on a neutral field against either the ACC or Big 12 Champion.

Even though there would be an extra game, that might actually be a better path to reach the Semifinals than being the 1 seed and having to play a SEC team or Notre Dame in the quarterfinals.

[Rico]

What a difference a year makes.