Indiana at Wisconsin Game Thread

[DChoosier]

21 minutes ago, Chris007 said:

I'll be interested in seeing what the line will be. 

Speaking of betting:

Whats the over/under for how many minutes of his playing time it takes X to get his third foul? I’d go with 10 1/2 minutes.

[Chris007]

2 minutes ago, DChoosier said:

Speaking of betting:

Whats the over/under for how many minutes of his playing time it takes X to get his third foul? I’d go with 10 1/2 minutes.

I'm guessing 2 quick early ones and then sits out the rest of the half. 

[Hovadipo]

46 minutes ago, rayl456 said:

Wisconsin is just a bad matchup for IU on paper.  We can all see that and we know our history in Madison post BK.  I'm hoping that Coach Woodson begins working the officials early and often about Davison and company.  And once he's warned... have Fife take over for him.

A bad matchup in what way? They have a stud on the wing who could be an issue, but I'm not sure how they handle Trayce and Race. Tough to argue with the history though. Just go into the game knowing you have 4 fouls to work with instead of 5, I guess.

[Stuhoo]

After re-thinking the matchups, knowing about this edition of Wisky's style of play, and seeing data, I predict two things:

1. IU will not get whistled for an especially large number of fouls -- there is no Ethan Happ that inherently draws contact.
2. Every time we do get whistled the board will throw a hissy fit.

 

[Demo]

29 minutes ago, Stuhoo said:

After re-thinking the matchups, knowing about this edition of Wisky's style of play, and seeing data, I predict two things:

1. IU will not get whistled for an especially large number of fouls -- there is no Ethan Happ that inherently draws contact.
2. Every time we do get whistled the board will throw a hissy fit.

 

To your points:

1. Possibly true, though the fact that X, Stewart and Phinisee are all really undisciplined with their hands and have committed a bunch of bad fouls is concerning. An under-appreciated factor in the Syracuse loss was Stewart committing 3 unnecessary, undisciplined fouls. If he doesn’t foul out, they win that game.

2. As inevitable as the tides.

[HoosierAloha]

This might surprise some of you. 
 
Indiana is #40 with 21.9 attempts per game thus far in 2021.. 
Wisconsin is #121 with 18.9 attempts per game thus far in 2021..
Now, whether the foul shots were earned or given is another story.
https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/stat/free-throws-attempted-per-game
 
Free throw attempts per game since the Bo Ryan era (Wisconsin's average - Indiana's average) MOST:
2001-2002  WIS 20.02  IND 19.62
2002-2203 WIS 19.34  IND 23.55
2003-2004 WIS 21.38  IND 18.34
2004-2005 WIS 20.15  IND 20.03
2005-2006 WIS 22.06  IND 16.87
2006-2007 WIS 23.56  IND 18.84
2007-2008 WIS 20.75  IND 23.03
2008-2009 WIS 17.67  IND 18.74
2009-2010 WIS 17.21  IND 22.74
2010-2011 WIS 15.68  IND 19.75
2011-2012 WIS 15.97  IND 23.83
2012-2013 WIS 19.00  IND 25.11
2013-2014 WIS 17.52  IND 24.66
2014-2015 WIS 19.13  IND 19.15
2015-2016 WIS 20.80  IND 19.66
2016-2017 WIS 19.00  IND 20.09
2017-2018 WIS 17.52  IND 20.77
2018-2019 WIS 15.62  IND 19.86
2019-2020 WIS 14.90  IND 15.19
2020-2021 WIS 15.3  IND 23.2
Now, I do realize this is for all games and not just Wisconsin's home games.  It would be interesting to see how many shots they took at home vs away during this time span.  Maybe I'll crunch those numbers before game time if I find the motivation.  But, for now, I thought this was interesting to look at.  I think these numbers would look very striking if you looked at home vs away games, but I figured the free throw attempts stats would have favored more for Wisconsin overall throughout most of the seasons listed.  Granted, you also must take into account the personnel as to how likely a certain player or a specific team is to be fouled (style of play).  And, as stated earlier, this doesn't prove whether the foul shots were earned or given.

While FTA can be an indication of how the whistles go, a better indication is FTR. Wiscy has played at a much slower pace than IU in many seasons. While the FTA star looks like IU has dominated trips to the line, the FTR will share a more accurate picture of how often they went to the line.


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[rayl456]

51 minutes ago, Hovadipo said:

A bad matchup in what way? They have a stud on the wing who could be an issue, but I'm not sure how they handle Trayce and Race. Tough to argue with the history though. Just go into the game knowing you have 4 fouls to work with instead of 5, I guess.

I was speaking about individual defensive assignments only.  Should have been clearer about that.  I agree that inside we should give them plenty of problems.  Kopp seems like a liability on defense against their wing Davis.  But my hope is that we are learning as we play each game and that defensively we improve.  I also think IU might run a few different players at Davis to keep fresh bodies in front of him.  I think we take this game.

[Whoozhers]

Sure would be nice to escape that purgatory of a gym with a W tonight.
Mr Obvious here.
G[emoji459] H[emoji459][emoji459]SIERS!!


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[Chris007]

4 minutes ago, Whoozhers said:

Sure would be nice to escape that purgatory of a gym with a W tonight.
Mr Obvious here.
G HSIERS!!


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Not sure who is playing tonight but I think your a day early

[Whoozhers]

Not sure who is playing tonight but I think your a day early

🤪 ha! Been waiting all day to play tomorrow night! Boo!


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[HoosierHoopster]

2 hours ago, Stuhoo said:

After re-thinking the matchups, knowing about this edition of Wisky's style of play, and seeing data, I predict two things:

1. IU will not get whistled for an especially large number of fouls -- there is no Ethan Happ that inherently draws contact.
2. Every time we do get whistled the board will throw a hissy fit.

 

I'm already throwing a hissy fit

[Stuhoo]

5 minutes ago, HoosierHoopster said:

I'm already throwing a hissy fit

Not you!   Other guys.

[Chris007]

5 minutes ago, Stuhoo said:

Not you!   Other guys.

I bet some of the refs are going to make bad calls tonight to just get ready to make bad calls against us tomorrow night. 

[cthomas]

As this season has progressed, some seem to be making some pretty early determinations about this team and how nothing much has changed. In game threads I read about the same problems with 3 point shooting (not so much lately), turnovers, and foul shooting. CMW is in his first year and has patched together a roster that is, for me at least, fun to watch. The Wisconsin game will not be a referendum on whether things have changed or not. It will simply be another step in the evolution of this team and this season. I'm looking forward to see how this plays out.

[Stuhoo]

3 minutes ago, Chris007 said:

I bet some of the refs are going to make bad calls tonight to just get ready to make bad calls against us tomorrow night. 

[HoosierHoopster]

12 minutes ago, Chris007 said:

I bet some of the refs are going to make bad calls tonight to just get ready to make bad calls against us tomorrow night. 

Warmup 

[Southside]

Gonna be a fun game.

I think we lose a very close game, but would not be shocked if we win.

We'll try to speed things up, they'll try to slow things down. 

They will try to feed it Davis for 3s, we'll try to impose our will with TJD.

I'm most interested to see how Woodson attacks them on O, and what his plan is for Davis.

[Stuhoo]

5 minutes ago, Southside said:

Gonna be a fun game.

I think we lose a very close game, but would not be shocked if we win.

We'll try to speed things up, they'll try to slow things down. 

They will try to feed it Davis for 3s, we'll try to impose our will with TJD.

I'm most interested to see how Woodson attacks them on O, and what his plan is for Davis.

They're gonna smother Trayce like Hoiberg did. Woody has stated that that's our expectation for every game. Leaves more room for Race to flourish. Hope he does.

[HoosierHoopster]

2 minutes ago, Southside said:

Gonna be a fun game.

I think we lose a very close game, but would not be shocked if we win.

We'll try to speed things up, they'll try to slow things down. 

They will try to feed it Davis for 3s, we'll try to impose our will with TJD.

I'm most interested to see how Woodson attacks them on O, and what his plan is for Davis.

How we defend Davis is going to be key, if not the key, imo. 

And another slow start would be hard to overcome in Wiscy's house. Man I hope we come out fully ready and focused.

[Southside]

25 minutes ago, Stuhoo said:

They're gonna smother Trayce like Hoiberg did. Woody has stated that that's our expectation for every game. Leaves more room for Race to flourish. Hope he does.

Yup. That's why I said I'm really excited to see how Woody attacks them on O. 

IMO, we'll have plenty of outside opportunity, and if we shoot 3s well, we might just pull it out. 

While I think Race will be a big factor and get his, I think we need one of the outside shooters to step up and throw some daggers. 

23 minutes ago, HoosierHoopster said:

How we defend Davis is going to be key, if not the key, imo. 

And another slow start would be hard to overcome in Wiscy's house. Man I hope we come out fully ready and focused.

I'm with you on the need to defend Davis....

 Maybe I'm overly optimistic, but I think Woody has a plan for it. Maybe rotate Stewart, Bates and Leal on him, and just really wear him down. I'd like to see Leal get a hot at him given his scrappiness last game.