Transfer Portal w IU Interest

[AH1971 2,013]

3 minutes ago, btownqb said:

Frigging great post. It sucks, but the actual best route to "consistently being in a game last year" was just hammer down in the post, there was no variation possible because of the lack of talent and cohesion on the perimeter. 

Insert a couple of these cats and we can play multiple ways. 

Crazy to think that just over 12 hours ago I was called a troll in the other thread for suggesting that having a more dynamic backcourt could lead to a more dynamic offense.

What a time to be alive.

[HoosierHoopster 7,449]

11 minutes ago, AH1971 said:

If outside shooting is still de-emphasized after landing guys like Rice and Carlyle and then potentially someone like Hickman, most people will get their wish and Woodson  will be gone after the year. When guys like Leal, Cupps, and Galloway commandeer you’re backcourt for a majority of minutes, I know shooting 23-25 3P wouldn’t be my game plan.

You are just looking at this past season. All 3 years under Woodson— including Miller Kopp et al — the team has shot by numbers from outside at the bottom of DI ball. It is not the players it’s the system, it’s that simple and you’re ignoring that. 

If we suddenly are shooting by numbers comparable to the top 25% or so of DI that will be a system change and we’ll all be thrilled. 

[AH1971 2,013]

12 minutes ago, HoosierHoopster said:

You are just looking at this past season. All 3 years under a Woodson— including Miller Kopp et al — the team has shot by numbers from outside at the bottom of DI ball. It is not the players it’s the system, it’s that simple and you’re ignoring that. 

If we suddenly are shooting by numbers comparable to the top 25% or so of DI that will be a system change and we’ll all be thrilled. 

We’ve had two mainstays in the backcourt for the majority of those 3 years. Galloway and Johnson aren’t volume 3 point shooters because they aren’t 3 point shooters to begin with. Rice and Carlyle both attempted four 3pt/game as first year players, Galloway and XJ never attempted more than 3 in any of the years they played here. This isn’t hard. Woodson has shown he plays to his personnel. He bet on Xavier Johnson and got burnt. He’s going all in on young, dynamic guards who can not only create for themselves but for others. I’m willing to see that that through. It’s fine if you don’t want too, but that’s your prerogative however.

[Demo 21,327]

1 hour ago, JF87 said:

I did forget.  What was special about how Woodson used JHS?  

It wasn’t that what he did was special. It just demonstrated that he was willing and able to use a guy who was more dynamic off the bounce and would tailor some things for him. JHS wasn’t explosive enough to beat guys cold so they’d run a ton of zoom to get him the ball on the move. He did that a fair amount with Galloway last year, though not with Cupps, and it wasn’t as effective because Gallo isn’t as good. The other thing they did a lot was set their high ball screen as a flat screen so he’d come off it as a straight line drive instead of perpendicular. Didn’t do that for anyone last year. X & O genius? Nope, just a clear example that he’s ready to exploit matchups. If they’re able to bring in, prayers up, both Rice and Carlyle, they’re not gonna look for 50 post touches a game. They’re gonna get those guys the ball on the move and expect them to distort the defense and make reads and plays. Haven’t see Rice enough, but Carlyle can beat guys cold. The last guy on this campus on who could do that was Yogi. I promise that they’ll have end of game plays next year running 1 out with no screener for Carlyle and him just finding a shot. 

[Stuhoo 84,465]

36 minutes ago, Demo said:

It wasn’t that what he did was special. It just demonstrated that he was willing and able to use a guy who was more dynamic off the bounce and would tailor some things for him. JHS wasn’t explosive enough to beat guys cold so they’d run a ton of zoom to get him the ball on the move. He did that a fair amount with Galloway last year, though not with Cupps, and it wasn’t as effective because Gallo isn’t as good. The other thing they did a lot was set their high ball screen as a flat screen so he’d come off it as a straight line drive instead of perpendicular. Didn’t do that for anyone last year. X & O genius? Nope, just a clear example that he’s ready to exploit matchups. If they’re able to bring in, prayers up, both Rice and Carlyle, they’re not gonna look for 50 post touches a game. They’re gonna get those guys the ball on the move and expect them to distort the defense and make reads and plays. Haven’t see Rice enough, but Carlyle can beat guys cold. The last guy on this campus on who could do that was Yogi. I promise that they’ll have end of game plays next year running 1 out with no screener for Carlyle and him just finding a shot. 

From game vids Rice plays tall and while a few inches  shorter,  is a comparable skill set to JHS.

Woody is pretty good at in game schemes.

What he was terrible at last year? Roster construction. He was left with only one guard or wing on the whole roster that had even one outstanding offensive skill—Mgbako, and it took Mgbako until February to show it.

O-Fer guards is a no chance proposition. Rice, Carlyle, and a shooter rectifies that even if neither Cupps or Newton turn into a threat.

[woodenshoemanHoosierfan 6,391]

It is at IU.  And that’s the problem.  
Then look at Painter and Edey.  Uconn let him score his points and defended the perimeter = National Championship.  You need to be more dynamic than just post play.  

I don't think I have seen him argue that we need just post play. Both is needed.

Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk

[RaceToTheTop 27,764]

in terms of Tony A’s analysis, Torvik does projections.  Based on current roster projections, Rice would be projected to be at about the same offensive efficiency as last year while Carlyle would be about 6% higher.

Of note, that’s overall efficiency and not particular to any specific statistic.  Rice had a nice two point shooting percentage and assist to to ratio;  would not be a shock if those dropped a little while his three point percentage climbs

[8bucks 6,842]

1 hour ago, HoosierHoopster said:

You are just looking at this past season. All 3 years under Woodson— including Miller Kopp et al — the team has shot by numbers from outside at the bottom of DI ball. It is not the players it’s the system, it’s that simple and you’re ignoring that. 

If we suddenly are shooting by numbers comparable to the top 25% or so of DI that will be a system change and we’ll all be thrilled. 

This is fair and I don’t expect us to launch 30 three pointers/game next year but I would be more shocked if Woody ran with the same offensive ideas this year.  I do expect some system changes and the emphasis on guards in the portal suggest this is likely. 

[Hardwood83 4,789]

4 hours ago, Home Jersey said:

Carlyle dropped 28 on Arizona on 7/13 shooting from the field and 8-8 from the FT line. 

Career high 31 on Washington State shot 56% from the field and 60% from 3

22 vs Oregon State. Bunch of other games in double figures. 

Not sure how he holds up on defense but I don't think the offense is what we worry about with Carlyle as a sophomore.

Ehhhh, gotta differ with you there. He did have some big games, but had some real stinkers too. Home vs Oregon St he was 1-7fg (0-3 3p) 3-6 FT's, 1 reb with 3 TO's and 3PF's in 27mins.  @ Colorado was 4-17 shooting (2 of 11 3p!) with only 2reb in 33mins. 

Maybe just the ups and down's of a Freshman? Or he's just wildly inconsistent. I got my fill of that with XJ and so many other IU players over the last +20yrs. I think he takes a scholarship from someone that will actually help IU win- Conwell or Hickman for instance. Pass on Carlyle and let him 'develop' somewhere that doesn't need immediate help.  

[Home Jersey 11,346]

3 minutes ago, Hardwood83 said:

Ehhhh, gotta differ with you there. He did have some big games, but had some real stinkers too. Home vs Oregon St he was 1-7fg (0-3 3p) 3-6 FT's, 1 reb with 3 TO's and 3PF's in 27mins.  @ Colorado was 4-17 shooting (2 of 11 3p!) with only 2reb in 33mins. 

Maybe just the ups and down's of a Freshman? Or he's just wildly inconsistent. I got my fill of that with XJ and so many other IU players over the last +20yrs. I think he takes a scholarship from someone that will actually help IU win- Conwell or Hickman for instance. Pass on Carlyle and let him 'develop' somewhere that doesn't need immediate help.  

I'd also prefer Conwell. Hickman I think we need to prioritize regardless. He's not the same prospect as Conwell or Rice IMO but he could still be a very good player. He's got 3 more years of eligibility so who knows. I'm not gonna be mad about the pick up if it actually happens 

[JF87 1,863]

1 hour ago, Demo said:

It wasn’t that what he did was special. It just demonstrated that he was willing and able to use a guy who was more dynamic off the bounce and would tailor some things for him. JHS wasn’t explosive enough to beat guys cold so they’d run a ton of zoom to get him the ball on the move. He did that a fair amount with Galloway last year, though not with Cupps, and it wasn’t as effective because Gallo isn’t as good. The other thing they did a lot was set their high ball screen as a flat screen so he’d come off it as a straight line drive instead of perpendicular. Didn’t do that for anyone last year. X & O genius? Nope, just a clear example that he’s ready to exploit matchups. If they’re able to bring in, prayers up, both Rice and Carlyle, they’re not gonna look for 50 post touches a game. They’re gonna get those guys the ball on the move and expect them to distort the defense and make reads and plays. Haven’t see Rice enough, but Carlyle can beat guys cold. The last guy on this campus on who could do that was Yogi. I promise that they’ll have end of game plays next year running 1 out with no screener for Carlyle and him just finding a shot. 

Thanks, I think this is a fair assessment. 

[Ghost of Rick Majerus 1,011]

I keep coming back here with the hope that one of these guys have made it official, but nothing yet. 

[IU - Kaulie 1,943]

23 hours ago, RaceToTheTop said:

He could but he would literally likely be fourth at the point guard spot next year and third the next

Maybe.  Some run away from competition.  Some seek it, embrace it, and see it as a challenge.  I think Cupps is wired a little different but we will see.

[Silat Player 916]

2 hours ago, Trish said:

Problem is, the Indiana coaching staff doesn’t believe in the 3PT shot.

I'm more concerned whether this staff believes in analytics. If they did, then they would probably believe in the three point shot...

[go iu bb 7,371]

20 hours ago, Class of '66 Old Fart said:

Let's not get too carried away.  Getting the recruits is one thing.  Coaching them is something else.

So you're saying it's too early for the undefeated t-shirts? 

Crap, I wonder if I can get my deposit back...And what am I going to do about this tattoo?

[lillurk 4,194]

8 minutes ago, Silat Player said:

I'm more concerned whether this staff believes in analytics. If they did, then they would probably believe in the three point shot...

I agree. I will say this one is so simple that anyone who took normal HS math should get it, not just 3>2 but 3*33%=2*50%

[IU - Kaulie 1,943]

I haven’t been on in a couple days so trying to catch up.

It looks like a lot of Rice, Carlyle, and Ballo.  
A lot of talk about how good we are going to be, and just wait, because we have never had any guards or wings outside JHS.  Miller Kopp says hello. 
Rice moves the needle, but the three I really liked remains.  So what about Conwell, Hickman, and Humrichous?  If we are prioritizing other guards over Conwell and Hickman, who I think could be had, I think that’s a mistake.

[Jam 278]

I am not sure we are prioritizing over them. It just seems Carlyle has showed more interest. 

[WayneFleekHoosier 49,540]

I feel like some other programs are taking the moneyball analytics approach in portal and we are trying to build the best fantasy team.  I hope Woodson and Indiana can have a big year.  I genuinely think Woodson and his Burners go the fan blaming route if it doesn’t work out.  Scorched earth on the fans is the last thing we need as a program.  
 

It is fun winning recruiting battles. No doubt Kentucky is in a dazed and confused mode with winning recruiting vs winning on the court.  
 

Let’s do both. 

[Feathery 4,005]

1 hour ago, lillurk said:

I agree. I will say this one is so simple that anyone who took normal HS math should get it, not just 3>2 but 3*33%=2*50%

ok I’ll take this one on just to be a contrarian bc I don’t necessarily disagree with you. 
 

Not to be that guy but if you took a 100 3pt shots and made 33% that’s 99 points. If you took 100 2’s and made 50% that’s 100 points. So 3*33 = 2*50% is not correct. It’s actually less than.  
 

Again not trying to be a jerk but the magic number is 34% from 3 is better than 50% from 2. But when you have a quality post like TJD or and Edey shooting 58%/62% from 2 then to value the 3 point line a shooter would need to shoot 38.6% and 41.3% from 3 respectively. 
 

Malik Reneau shot 55.8% from 2, meaning an IU shooter needs to shoot it 37.2% from 3 to break even. Mgbako could do that but not until he got comfortable. There wasn’t anyone else on the roster who could shoot it well enough, outside of Mgbako and Wade, to forgo giving it to Reneau for a 2 pt attempt. Ware shot even better at 59.9% from 2, meaning a 3pt shooter needed to shoot it at 39.9% to break even. Ware shot it from 3 well and should have shot it more and that should definitely be a criticism. 
 

So from an analytic perspective shooting more 3’s as a team wasn’t the correct answer and I didn’t believe it was during the season. Having the right guys shoot them was the correct answer but it was aware and Mgbako, then X when healthy but he was up and down do to being hurt.