IUBB @ O$U - 2/21/22 @ 7:00 on FS1-TV

[RaceToTheTop 24,660]

13 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

Brown is actually one of pennys 3 assistant coaches 

I know, I just assumed given his age he isn’t doing much of the recruiting.  My assumption is that is mainly Hardaway.

[HoosierAloha 30,021]

58 minutes ago, brumdog45 said:

Statistically, we are still better with TJD (per cbbanalytics).  Our top five in terms our production with them on the court compared to off is X, Race, TJD, Galloway and Kopp.

Was that challenged? TJD while integrating other players strengths into the offense... we might be able to get above a PPP. That diagonal pass led Bates straight into a wide open three. Unfortunately, that's the exception instead of the norm.

[Brass Cannon 24,112]

53 minutes ago, HoosierAloha said:

Was that challenged? TJD while integrating other players strengths into the offense... we might be able to get above a PPP. That diagonal pass led Bates straight into a wide open three. Unfortunately, that's the exception instead of the norm.

Yeah the people pretending that we will be just fine next year are trying to claim we are better without TJD

[HoosierAloha 30,021]

Yeah the people pretending that we will be just fine next year are trying to claim we are better without TJD

We’ll have to see if he actually goes, who replaces him, and the other pieces. The result could be anywhere from great to oh **** we’re really bad.


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[HoosierHoops1 5,024]

13 hours ago, Trish said:

We still have shot at dancing.

We just have to win out regular season and win two games in the B1G.

Easy! 

win the next 3 and we are probably in.

[Trish 11,453]

11 minutes ago, HoosierHoops1 said:

win the next 3 and we are probably in.

3 wins and 2 wins in the big ten and we’re in. 

[HoosierHoops1 5,024]

12 minutes ago, Trish said:

3 wins and 2 wins in the big ten and we’re in. 

I don't think it'll take that much, but hopefully we get the 3 wins to make the rest matter.

[str8baller 4,937]

4 hours ago, brumdog45 said:

Two coin flips have a 25% of being called right.  Pom puts it at about 30% to win the next three, Tarvik about 40%.

Yep. And if you generously assume we’re 75% to beat Maryland at home the odds of us winning all three are about 19%. 
 

Kenpom is going to have Rutgers seriously  underrated compared to how they’ve played the last few weeks. 

[HoosierTrav 7,655]

6 hours ago, Chris007 said:

It changes with every school. It used to be they did video work, scheduled hotels & food for away trips, basically anything but coaching on the court during practice.

I think with Armond it's just being close to Woodson, who he has coached with for many years. Bouncing ideas off of him and helping him make the in-game decisions and as USPS said being his right-hand man. 

This news about Woody and the staff is somewhat of a bombshell for me. I’ve been mostly a supporter of CMW bc I thought he was a better leader than his predecessor. Now I see it isn’t the case and it makes me finally want to give up rooting for this program.   The organizational dysfunction is truly unbelievable. Structural, cultural, and leadership patterns are completely broken and needing fundamental change. If we can’t count on anything with this program, it’s that we can count on it not getting fixed. 

[RaceToTheTop 24,660]

49 minutes ago, str8baller said:

Yep. And if you generously assume we’re 75% to beat Maryland at home the odds of us winning all three are about 19%. 
 

Kenpom is going to have Rutgers seriously  underrated compared to how they’ve played the last few weeks. 

Doesn't mean they will continue to do so.  The four games prior to that streak they lost to Minnesota, Maryland, and Northwestern and only beat Nebraska by 2.  They followed up the good streak of play by losing to Purdue by a dozen -- Purdue's first win by double figures in six games.  And prior to that bad string, they had won four of five conference games.  Rutgers has simply been unpredictable.  The best prediction of them going forward is they will continue to be unpredictable.

[RaceToTheTop 24,660]

57 minutes ago, str8baller said:

Yep. And if you generously assume we’re 75% to beat Maryland at home the odds of us winning all three are about 19%. 
 

Kenpom is going to have Rutgers seriously  underrated compared to how they’ve played the last few weeks. 

You're just making numbers up now.

Pom:  72%*55%*68% = 27%.

Tarvik:  81%*64%+79% = 41%.

I'm not 'generiously assuming' anything.  I'm citing others have projected and not just throwing a random number out like '19%'.

 

 

[RaceToTheTop 24,660]

3 hours ago, HoosierAloha said:

Was that challenged? TJD while integrating other players strengths into the offense... we might be able to get above a PPP. That diagonal pass led Bates straight into a wide open three. Unfortunately, that's the exception instead of the norm.

I have no idea what you are trying to say.  My statement was about the five players we have had the biggest difference in value when they are on the court as opposed to when they are off statistically for the year.  There is one correction -- Phinisee's on/off comparison is better than Kopp's.  So the five players who as individuals have shown to have the best value for our team as individuals are X, Race, TJD, Phin, and Galloway.....and after those five, it statistically has been a big drop off.  It's not a combination we have used much -- but there enough evidence to say it might be one we should have tried.

[HoosierAloha 30,021]

12 hours ago, brumdog45 said:

Statistically, we are still better with TJD (per cbbanalytics).  Our top five in terms our production with them on the court compared to off is X, Race, TJD, Galloway and Kopp.

 

11 hours ago, HoosierAloha said:

Was that challenged? TJD while integrating other players strengths into the offense... we might be able to get above a PPP. That diagonal pass led Bates straight into a wide open three. Unfortunately, that's the exception instead of the norm.

 

8 hours ago, brumdog45 said:

I have no idea what you are trying to say.  My statement was about the five players we have had the biggest difference in value when they are on the court as opposed to when they are off statistically for the year.  There is one correction -- Phinisee's on/off comparison is better than Kopp's.  So the five players who as individuals have shown to have the best value for our team as individuals are X, Race, TJD, Phin, and Galloway.....and after those five, it statistically has been a big drop off.  It's not a combination we have used much -- but there enough evidence to say it might be one we should have tried.

Was that challenged? (Statistically, we are still better with TJD)

I haven't looked for a few games but Kopp in Big 1.o play was at or towards the bottom of the rotation players. He's been really bad. He exploded for 7 points against O$U but took 8 shots to get there. We used that lineup as our "closing" lineup for awhile no? It's crazy that we're clamoring for Phin. If only the players would have developed or played how we thought they could.

[Chris007 43,367]

9 hours ago, HoosierTrav said:

This news about Woody and the staff is somewhat of a bombshell for me. I’ve been mostly a supporter of CMW bc I thought he was a better leader than his predecessor. Now I see it isn’t the case and it makes me finally want to give up rooting for this program.   The organizational dysfunction is truly unbelievable. Structural, cultural, and leadership patterns are completely broken and needing fundamental change. If we can’t count on anything with this program, it’s that we can count on it not getting fixed. 

I don't look at it as being that bad. He's listening to people, maybe just not the ones we want. I think giving another off-season around the assistants will only help. It takes time to build trust. 

[Stuhoo 78,425]

 

Re Woody's leadership? I wouldn't be swayed by the negative or positive opinions. It's well and good to have those opinions, but take them for what they are.

I look to the evidence. Of good and bad coaching decisions, and of team demeanor and motivation.

Interpreting the evidence is a subjective task. It's usually hard to draw broad conclusions, but one can be informed and start to see themes and trends.

Generally? For me I still see a lot of hope for the program's future with Woody. That doesn't necessarily mean a smooth ride or a straight path to success. But currently I still err on the side of this working out well.

 

[RaceToTheTop 24,660]

1 hour ago, HoosierAloha said:

 

 

Was that challenged? (Statistically, we are still better with TJD)

 

More than one person on here has said that this team is 'better without TJD' and they were looking forward to him being gone.

[RaceToTheTop 24,660]

1 hour ago, HoosierAloha said:

 

I haven't looked for a few games but Kopp in Big 1.o play was at or towards the bottom of the rotation players. He's been really bad. He exploded for 7 points against O$U but took 8 shots to get there. We used that lineup as our "closing" lineup for awhile no? It's crazy that we're clamoring for Phin. If only the players would have developed or played how we thought they could.

In terms of Kopp, I later corrected that to say Phin was in the top five in on/off court comparisons and not Kopp.  Top five are X, Race, TJD, Phin and Galloway.  Kopp is sixth but there is a big gap between our top five and players after that.  Kopp/Stewart/JG/Bates/Durr/Lander have numbers very similar to each other in +/-.  There is some randomness involved in it, but there is a definite gap between the first five and the ones after.  Galloway is fifth on our team in +/1 and the gap between him and #6 is bigger than the gap between #6 and #11.

[reconmkd 4,248]

1 hour ago, brumdog45 said:

More than one person on here has said that this team is 'better without TJD' and they were looking forward to him being gone.

I have been on TJDs case for awhile now, with the inconsistent play, not being focused, forcing post moves on 2-3 defenders, and such. Yes, I have been fed up with him at times, do I want him to leave, no, but would I like the offense to evolve around him, absolutely. Yes, he is our best player, but you cannot focus the offense on his ability in the post, it is too easy to defend. If he were to be able to shoot outside of 5 feet from the basket, it would be a different story, because you would have to defend him differently. I went to 5 games this year, and I know that warmups are different than in game situations, but I have seen him hit jump shots. The ability to shoot is there, just don't understand why he won't do it in a game unless he is forced too, other than confidence. 

My post about what was said on the Assembly Call was not intended to say we are better as a team w/o TJD, it was that the offense finally started moving the ball, players were moving and cutting w/o the ball, and we went on a run when TJD was on the bench. The moment TJD came back in the offense reverted back to force feed the post, movement stopped for the most part outside of the cross court outlet that Tamar nailed a 3. We have to be more than a one trick pony. 

I am perplexed as to why the offense cannot seem to flow like when it did with him on the bench during that run. Why does TJD have to hold the ball for like 3 seconds after catching the ball before he makes any move? It does not work consistently enough in B1G competition for us to win on a consistent basis. If he catches the ball in the post early in the shot clock, and he doesn't have the advantage, the ball needs to come back out immediately and move or someone needs to be cutting to make the defenders move away from him or to make a play. The other B1G teams know that when the ball goes in, the ball will generally not come back out and he is going to try to go left or the ball will come back out on the same side of the court which is easy to recover on defensively.

We have had glimpses of decent ball movement when he is on the floor sporadically throughout the season and it has created many open shot opportunities, some have fallen and many have not. The PU and OSU games are examples that there is offensive opportunities outside of force feeding the post or X jacking up shots like most games. 

This team is definitely flawed, its a puzzle that all the pieces just don't seem to fit together just right on the court. There are missing fundamentals, there are players that are taking too many shots that don't need to be taking them, we have "shooters" that don't put up enough shots due to them standing in the corners for entire possessions, there are players that seem to think "e" is optional and those that just bring the "e" with no other option, and there are players that are just flat out limited. This team has become so predictable and hard to watch at times, especially when it feels like a 4-6 point deficit feels like a 20 point deficit, because the offense just can't seem to get it done. But on the occasions, when the offense moves the ball around and our guards and wings are not stationary, I think the team plays better basketball and that's when we beat teams like PU. They end up creating more opportunities than we ever get from just forcing moves in the post and it should lead to even better opportunities for TJD to score. Of course a lot of this depends on if shots go down, which is a completely different topic for discussion. 

[HoosierHoopster 6,557]

^^

"The other B1G teams know that when the ball goes in, the ball will generally not come back out and he is going to try to go left or the ball will come back out on the same side of the court which is easy to recover on defensively."

This is spot on, imo.

TJD is hands down our best player, but we beat PU because he was on the bench and we went to a guard's game with Rob and X, and PU couldn't handle it.

We need to diversify the O with outside shooting, with actual inside-out play, it's that's simple, we generally lose when we just continue pounding it inside unless the other team is just lacking inside. 

[Hoosier Guy 7,504]

The team has clearly played better in multiple games with TJD on the bench. Purdue, Illinois and Ohio State games all had instances where he was on the bench and the team played well at the time. Offensive flow seems to run more smoothly without him. However, as mentioned above, swinging the ball from side to side is key. That’s basketball 101. Don’t stand in the same spot and swing the ball from one side of the court to the other. The pass to Bates the other night is a prime example of inside out play. He needs to be more unpredictable with the passes