Transfer Portal w IU Interest

[HoosierX 1,569]

10 hours ago, IU - Kaulie said:

I’m so excited we got Ballo!  I’m not too concerned about lineups and who gets the last starting spot.  Those things usually work themselves out.  If we do have Carlyle the top 6 are going to play big minutes.  Cupps is going to play and Newton needs to play.  
 

I think we probably leave one scholarship open, so assuming Carlyle is in the fold that’s three more spots to fill.  I hope one of them is Humrichous.  We obviously need a backup big and a sniper to round things out.

What is the date the portal closes to enter?  There will most likely be some late additions and you never know who might enter.

Just curious why you think Newton needs to play? If Carlyle comes, I think the top 7 would be Oumar, Malik, MM, Bryson Tucker, TG, Rice, and Carlyle. I also think Cupps would generally get some minutes as a backup PG and Leal as well will see some time because he brings shooting to the table. Obviously, Newton is a major unknown, and I could be totally wrong, but not sure I see him getting much run.

[Chris007 44,066]

55 minutes ago, Loaded Chicken Sandwich said:

What big names though? I can't really think of anyone that'd be big name who would transfer.

RJ Davis

[RaceToTheTop 25,866]

1 hour ago, Golfman25 said:

So lets just look at before and after:

X (career due to injury):  40% from three; 75% free throws; 11 pts/game

Rice (freshman year): 27.5% from three; 80% free throws; 15 pts/game

Ware (IU only): 42% from three; 63% free throws; 16 points/game; 10 rebounds/game; 56 blocks

Ballo (AZ only): 0 three; 49.5% free throws; 13 points/game; 10 rebounds/game; 45 blocks.

Not sure what balances out what, but kind of looks like a push to me (it's literally a napkin analysis so take it for what it's worth).  Rice gives up some 3 pct., but tends to score a few more points than X.  We lose Ware's outside shot, some FT pct., but the points/boards are in line with each other.   

Seems to me Tucker and the next 1-2 gets will make the difference -- should be significant upgrades from those who left.  Woody's got a lot more cooking to do, IMO.  

Think you need to dig deeper than that on stats.  First off, if you are talking about the comparison of last year's team to next year's the fact is that Xavier Johnson wasn't our point guard.  It was a combination of Johnson and Cupps because of Johnson's injury.  I assume you are wanting to compare to how much we improved since last year, so that is the only thing that is important.

Cupps and Johnson combined for 1228 minutes, or 37.2 minutes average for Indiana's 33 games.  Rice averaged 33.2 minutes for Washington State.  To put them even, let's prorate Johnson and Cupps' stats -- give them 90% of their combined stats to even it up.

This yields:

In 33 games at 33.2 minutes, the Cupps/Johnson combo made 80 of 201 shots (40%), 25 of 69 threes (36%), 52 of 77 free throws (67%), had 111 rebounds (3.4 rpg), 72 assists (2.2 apg);  237 points (7.2 ppg).

Rice shot 44%, 28% from three, 81% from the line, 3.1 reb, 3.8 assists, and averaged 14.8 points.  So Cupps/Johnson isn't even close to what Rice did.  As I said, what Xavier Johnson did previous in his career isn't relevant if you are looking toward amount of improvement.

Now, for Ware and Ballo:  your comparison lacks a couple of items.  First Ballo put his numbers up in 25.9 minutes per game.  Ware put his up in 32.1 minutes per game.  If Ware had played Ballo's minutes, his scoring would have been actually LOWER than Ballo's -- 12.8 points/game.  Same with his rebounding -- in Ballo's minutes, he would have had 8.0 rebounds per game compared to Ballo's 10.1.

[Feathery 4,005]

1 minute ago, Chris007 said:

RJ Davis

Is that even an option? Surely UNC will pay him what he wants. 

[ziggyiu 587]

2 minutes ago, Chris007 said:

RJ Davis

I've seen other rumblings about him. Why doesn't he want to stay at UNC? 

[lillurk 3,756]

1 hour ago, Papacap said:

I’m no NIL expert but big names waiting seems….risky? I get the thought that fewer players means a higher possible NIL as teams panic. But, isn’t it possible that the big money goes and all that’s left is bench player money? 

Feels a little like IU risked it last year for late portal movement — maybe Antonio Reeves? — and got bit. I like this approach better, get your work done and then ask for more cash late if you need more.

[8bucks 6,461]

12 minutes ago, Stuhoo said:

True, but a starting role would be at a mid-major, with substantially less NIL.

I think he should think about going mid major so he can start and hopefully return to freshman form or better.  He could work himself into a high level recruit for a bigger payday his senior year. 

[lillurk 3,756]

32 minutes ago, RaceToTheTop said:

Honestly, this one I find shocking with the assumption that Carlyle is committing this weekend.  But he's a really good buy low option considering his season last year.

Agree, tend to think there may be more meat on the bone with Essegian than a Just A Shooter career. Torvik’s statistical comps for his Frosh year, using only other high-major freshmen are in the attachment. A serious # of pros, with some shot creation.

Maybe he’s not super athletic but I don’t think he’s bad there: shot 61% at the rim and only about the same % were assisted, which is a pretty good proxy for being B1G-caliber athlete.

If he can defend, and the sophomore slump was about injury and the Gard doghouse, I’d expect a nice bench microwave scorer for two years.

 

[RaceToTheTop 25,866]

9 minutes ago, Feathery said:

Is that even an option? Surely UNC will pay him what he wants. 

If he enters the portal, he could drive what they pay him even more.  I don't remember who said it, but there was an insider that had stated that there was someone who was asking for a minimum of 1.5 million and that player wasn't even in the portal yet.

[RaceToTheTop 25,866]

27 minutes ago, Magisterium said:

It may be simplistic but it sounds like Malone (or Humrichous) could provide a lot of the same shooting as Essegian but with more size as well

Maybe, but I doubt Humrichous is going anywhere that would only get the minutes that Essegian would be expecting to get as a bench guy.  Essegian would be a guy who you could use as a bench shooter for a season and if his game shows anything like he was as a freshman, he's a potential starter his senior year.

[RaceToTheTop 25,866]

1 hour ago, Loaded Chicken Sandwich said:

What big names though? I can't really think of anyone that'd be big name who would transfer.

I'd say there have been some decent ones entering just in the last day or two.  Tyrese Hunter is a pretty good one.  Jeremy Roach.

[Loaded Chicken Sandwich 8,680]

35 minutes ago, Chris007 said:

RJ Davis

Would he really leave UNC?

[Golfman25 5,457]

57 minutes ago, RaceToTheTop said:

Think you need to dig deeper than that on stats.  First off, if you are talking about the comparison of last year's team to next year's the fact is that Xavier Johnson wasn't our point guard.  It was a combination of Johnson and Cupps because of Johnson's injury.  I assume you are wanting to compare to how much we improved since last year, so that is the only thing that is important.

Cupps and Johnson combined for 1228 minutes, or 37.2 minutes average for Indiana's 33 games.  Rice averaged 33.2 minutes for Washington State.  To put them even, let's prorate Johnson and Cupps' stats -- give them 90% of their combined stats to even it up.

This yields:

In 33 games at 33.2 minutes, the Cupps/Johnson combo made 80 of 201 shots (40%), 25 of 69 threes (36%), 52 of 77 free throws (67%), had 111 rebounds (3.4 rpg), 72 assists (2.2 apg);  237 points (7.2 ppg).

Rice shot 44%, 28% from three, 81% from the line, 3.1 reb, 3.8 assists, and averaged 14.8 points.  So Cupps/Johnson isn't even close to what Rice did.  As I said, what Xavier Johnson did previous in his career isn't relevant if you are looking toward amount of improvement.

Now, for Ware and Ballo:  your comparison lacks a couple of items.  First Ballo put his numbers up in 25.9 minutes per game.  Ware put his up in 32.1 minutes per game.  If Ware had played Ballo's minutes, his scoring would have been actually LOWER than Ballo's -- 12.8 points/game.  Same with his rebounding -- in Ballo's minutes, he would have had 8.0 rebounds per game compared to Ballo's 10.1.

Too much math. :)  And all good.  All numbers come with a plus/minus variance.  Really looking at big differences, which we don't have.  All I am doing is taking a 30,000 foot look at it -- to answer the question Are we any different?  Last three years have generally been a disappointment, no?  Year 1: play in game, 1st round blowout.  Year 2: 4th seed, 2nd round blowout.  Last season: a complete miss.  

Is Rice "better" than X?  Probably, has more upside.  But he did what he did and the fact is he doesn't shoot the three as good (not saying he can't improve).  

Is Ballo "better" than Ware?  They are different players, with similar numbers.  I am really concerned we end up with two bigs under the basket clogging everything up (like Race and TJD did).    

So like I said, net net it looks like a push to me right now.  We lost 2 good players and replaced them with 2 good players. If we had to take the floor tonight we have:  Rice, Gallo, MM, Malik and Ballo.  How many wins is that better than X, Gallo, MM, Malik and Ware?  Does that lead to more blowouts in non-conference to improve the tournament resume?  These are the big questions.  

Tucker and the next two players are the ones who can potentially make a difference.  If we can upgrade those players that left, maybe we have something.  Maybe one pushed Gallo out of the starting lineup?   Maybe one can shoot?  Maybe one doesn't drop off the big man play when someone is in foul trouble?   Like I said, there is still a lot of work to do.  Am I happy we landed these guys, yes I am.  But I am not falling for the hype.  Call me cautiously optimistic.  

[Demo 20,141]

Haven’t seen this posted yet. An actual highlight reel of Malone. Obviously it’s highlights, but there’s some instructive stuff. Best thing here for me, by far, are his hands. He doesn’t fight the ball in any way, even in traffic. That’s very nice. Also looks to have pretty decent feet in tight quarters That’ll play. Not explosive, but given his big frame and how soft he is right now Marshall could do him some serious good in about 90 days. Don’t love the stroke, but he takes it confidently so I assume it goes in. Hard to tell much past that, but at 1st blush he doesn’t look like he would be out of place on a high major roster, though speed of play might take some time. But in a limited viewing I’m not opposed to the idea.

[rcbowla 7,130]

4 hours ago, Alford Bailey said:

It appears we will do well enough in the portal that Galloway will come off the bench in the role that suits him best. That is a very good thing.

Not sure why so many think this is true. 5th year senior and most trusted player of the HC is most likely starting imo. I could be wrong, for sure, but I don't see a scenario where Galloway is coming off the bench with the current roster projection.

[Golfman25 5,457]

2 minutes ago, rcbowla said:

Not sure why so many think this is true. 5th year senior and most trusted player of the HC is most likely starting imo. I could be wrong, for sure, but I don't see a scenario where Galloway is coming off the bench with the current roster projection.

If you look at Woodson's history, he does seem to favor experienced guys.  See Miller Kopp.  

[RaceToTheTop 25,866]

12 minutes ago, Golfman25 said:

If you look at Woodson's history, he does seem to favor experienced guys.  See Miller Kopp.  

Last season IU's freshmen and sophomores played more minutes than their juniors and seniors.

[rcbowla 7,130]

Just now, RaceToTheTop said:

Last season IU's freshmen and sophomores played more minutes than their juniors and seniors.

I mean Mbagko and Reneau vs Walker and Leal? Yeah of course. That's not really an apples to apples when discussing Galloway vs an incoming Fr or So

[HoosierHoopster 7,021]

1 hour ago, HoosierX said:

Just curious why you think Newton needs to play? If Carlyle comes, I think the top 7 would be Omar, Malik, MM, Bryson Tucker, TG, Rice, and Carlyle. I also think Cupps would generally get some minutes as a backup PG and Leal as well will see some time because he brings shooting to the table. Obviously, Newton is a major unknown, and I could be totally wrong, but not sure I see him getting much run.

Personally I wouldn’t say needs to play, but he’s really talented. Question is all about his health, not ability. If he’s full go he will definitely challenge for minutes. He has a major injury to overcome but he was dressed at end of season and has an entire summer of conditioning coming. I hope he’s ready to play, he’ll make us better if he is

[HoosierTrav 7,890]

1 hour ago, Chris007 said:

RJ Davis

What? Really? That seems like it would be seismic.