2022-2023 IUBB Roster Projection

[HoosierHoopster]

2 hours ago, cthomas said:

The difference being that we have size at positions that we didn't with that team. Granted that team had more shooting. I think this one has a very high ceiling.

 

Stoked to see how it pans out, def a high ceiling coming into this season 

[Hoosierfan2017]

42 minutes ago, Five Prime said:

Geronimo was one of our most efficient players last year.  He just needs playing time.  There was already significant improvement in his game over the course of last season.  

The problem for him is that the increased playing time is only coming for him if he can play on the perimeter. He could only get 13 mpg last year with really no competition for the backup 4 spot. Now he’s got Reneau to compete with, who is rated higher than Trayce was in high school (who averaged 14/8 as a freshman). 

[BtownStrength]

48 minutes ago, Brass Cannon said:

His problem is that currently he plays the same position that our two best players are able to play. Besides he’s not going to get to the NBA playing the 4 in college it’s in his and our interest to teach him how to be a wing. Even if there’s growing pains. 
 

This is what I see as well. Geronimo's clear path in college may be a combo forward that plays inside out but in the NBA he should be a pure 3&D wing. He needs to get mich better defensively on the perimeter and develop ball handling skills. Either way I hope he can improve enough outside to get solid wing minutes. 

[CyberHoosier]

Spent some time thinking about what I feel the roster and rotations would/should look like so here's my analysis. Overall I like starting Geronimo at the 3 but it may be Kopp; although I think he would much better thrive as a come-off-the-bench shooter who will hopefully go 2/5 from 3 a night at the least. The only worry is outside shooting on the starting lineup without Kopp and Woody likes Kopp.

X, Race, and TJD should get the same minutes as last season as they are easily our most solid and consistant veterans. Race could lose a couple mins if he doesn't improve as much from last season and JG or Reneau surprise however. JHS is at the 1 anytime X is on the bench. But the two will start together. X will also inevitably be in foul trouble at times, and JHS will be there to keep our offense flowing. Reneau is interesting, I think he will play the 5 when TJD is off the floor as he is like a TJD clone in terms of size, skillset, and being a lefty, but not sure how well TJD and Reneau will work together - that will be fun to see. A 3 man rotation with Race, TJD, Reneau is going to be SCARY. Throw JG in the mix in times of foul trouble as well, and that has to be the best front court in the Big Ten. I also would love to see Geronimo and TJD on the floor more together which is my hope here with JG at the 3. Tamar and Galloway are the biggest question marks still. One of them has the chance to take a lot of the other's minutes and be a major contributor off the bench as our true 6th man. I hope both take major steps in their shooting. Our defense is already going to be very good.

The thing to really think about is we only have 3 proven players, the other 6 rotatonal pieces have a chance to gain some major playing time and get close to 25 a night if they take a step up this year. 

Floor: 6th in the Big Ten (11-9), 21-12 overall, 2nd ROUND NCAA

Cieling: 1st in the Big Ten (15-5) 26-7 overall, FINAL FOUR

Go Hoosiers!

 

[str8baller]

8 hours ago, CyberHoosier said:

Spent some time thinking about what I feel the roster and rotations would/should look like so here's my analysis. Overall I like starting Geronimo at the 3 but it may be Kopp; although I think he would much better thrive as a come-off-the-bench shooter who will hopefully go 2/5 from 3 a night at the least. The only worry is outside shooting on the starting lineup without Kopp and Woody likes Kopp.

X, Race, and TJD should get the same minutes as last season as they are easily our most solid and consistant veterans. Race could lose a couple mins if he doesn't improve as much from last season and JG or Reneau surprise however. JHS is at the 1 anytime X is on the bench. But the two will start together. X will also inevitably be in foul trouble at times, and JHS will be there to keep our offense flowing. Reneau is interesting, I think he will play the 5 when TJD is off the floor as he is like a TJD clone in terms of size, skillset, and being a lefty, but not sure how well TJD and Reneau will work together - that will be fun to see. A 3 man rotation with Race, TJD, Reneau is going to be SCARY. Throw JG in the mix in times of foul trouble as well, and that has to be the best front court in the Big Ten. I also would love to see Geronimo and TJD on the floor more together which is my hope here with JG at the 3. Tamar and Galloway are the biggest question marks still. One of them has the chance to take a lot of the other's minutes and be a major contributor off the bench as our true 6th man. I hope both take major steps in their shooting. Our defense is already going to be very good.

The thing to really think about is we only have 3 proven players, the other 6 rotatonal pieces have a chance to gain some major playing time and get close to 25 a night if they take a step up this year. 

Floor: 6th in the Big Ten (11-9), 21-12 overall, 2nd ROUND NCAA

Cieling: 1st in the Big Ten (15-5) 26-7 overall, FINAL FOUR

Go Hoosiers!

 

Good analysis. If I were critiquing it, I’d probably say that the chances of both 5-stars earning 16+ minutes is unlikely given them being frosh and Woody’s penchant for not playing guys who make mental mistakes on D (a common trait among all frosh no matter how talented). One probably plays closer to 10min and one of Galloway/Bates/Geronimo emerges as the full time starter and hits the 25mpg mark. 

[CSP]

8 hours ago, CyberHoosier said:

Spent some time thinking about what I feel the roster and rotations would/should look like so here's my analysis. Overall I like starting Geronimo at the 3 but it may be Kopp; although I think he would much better thrive as a come-off-the-bench shooter who will hopefully go 2/5 from 3 a night at the least. The only worry is outside shooting on the starting lineup without Kopp and Woody likes Kopp.

X, Race, and TJD should get the same minutes as last season as they are easily our most solid and consistant veterans. Race could lose a couple mins if he doesn't improve as much from last season and JG or Reneau surprise however. JHS is at the 1 anytime X is on the bench. But the two will start together. X will also inevitably be in foul trouble at times, and JHS will be there to keep our offense flowing. Reneau is interesting, I think he will play the 5 when TJD is off the floor as he is like a TJD clone in terms of size, skillset, and being a lefty, but not sure how well TJD and Reneau will work together - that will be fun to see. A 3 man rotation with Race, TJD, Reneau is going to be SCARY. Throw JG in the mix in times of foul trouble as well, and that has to be the best front court in the Big Ten. I also would love to see Geronimo and TJD on the floor more together which is my hope here with JG at the 3. Tamar and Galloway are the biggest question marks still. One of them has the chance to take a lot of the other's minutes and be a major contributor off the bench as our true 6th man. I hope both take major steps in their shooting. Our defense is already going to be very good.

The thing to really think about is we only have 3 proven players, the other 6 rotatonal pieces have a chance to gain some major playing time and get close to 25 a night if they take a step up this year. 

Floor: 6th in the Big Ten (11-9), 21-12 overall, 2nd ROUND NCAA

Cieling: 1st in the Big Ten (15-5) 26-7 overall, FINAL FOUR

Go Hoosiers!

 

Love the mins distribution. We will be very good if we have 9 guys with those min averages. Tweaked at times in the big games, but otherwise we will be playing 9 guys a lot. 

I love the roster makeup, currently. 

9 rotational guys 

3 developing young dudes

1 Leal 

[Hoosierfan2017]

1 hour ago, str8baller said:

Good analysis. If I were critiquing it, I’d probably say that the chances of both 5-stars earning 16+ minutes is unlikely given them being frosh and Woody’s penchant for not playing guys who make mental mistakes on D (a common trait among all frosh no matter how talented). One probably plays closer to 10min and one of Galloway/Bates/Geronimo emerges as the full time starter and hits the 25mpg mark. 

I would be shocked if one of the 5 stars only plays 10 minutes per game. Lander and, to a lesser extent, Bates, have skewed people’s opinions on playing time for 5 star caliber freshmen. Here are our recent ones besides those two as freshmen:

TJD - 29 mpg

Romeo - 34 mpg

Bryant - 23 mpg

Vonleh - 27 mpg

Yogi - 28 mpg 

Zeller - 29 mpg 

If either Reneau or JHS is only playing 10 mpg I’ll be disappointed. 

[PB1230]

35 minutes ago, Hoosierfan2017 said:

I would be shocked if one of the 5 stars only plays 10 minutes per game. Lander and, to a lesser extent, Bates, have skewed people’s opinions on playing time for 5 star caliber freshmen. Here are our recent ones besides those two as freshmen:

TJD - 29 mpg

Romeo - 34 mpg

Bryant - 23 mpg

Vonleh - 27 mpg

Yogi - 28 mpg 

Zeller - 29 mpg 

If either Reneau or JHS is only playing 10 mpg I’ll be disappointed. 

Although, none of the big men had any real competition for minutes, and to a lesser extent neither did Yogi (only other viable guard was Abell). A freshman TJD/Vonleh/Bryant would lose 10-15 minutes walking into our current roster.

[RaceToTheTop]

18 minutes ago, PB1230 said:

Although, none of the big men had any real competition for minutes, and to a lesser extent neither did Yogi (only other viable guard was Abell). A freshman TJD/Vonleh/Bryant would lose 10-15 minutes walking into our current roster.

If Reneau is as good as a freshman as TJD/Vonleh/Bryant we’re, we will be TOUGH.

[Hoosierfan2017]

22 minutes ago, PB1230 said:

Although, none of the big men had any real competition for minutes, and to a lesser extent neither did Yogi (only other viable guard was Abell). A freshman TJD/Vonleh/Bryant would lose 10-15 minutes walking into our current roster.

I don’t agree. I think people are really overhyping our ‘depth.’ Take away the two 5 star freshmen and the top 7 is Trayce, Race, Xavier, Kopp, Geronimo, Bates, and Galloway. That’s the same roster that finished 9th in the conference and got blown out in the round of 64 minus Stewart and Phinisee. 

I’m optimistic for next season because we’re bringing in two top 30 freshman from the high school national champions. I’m expecting them to be major contributors because top 30 guys typically have been on IU teams. If those guys aren’t playing significant minutes then I truly don’t see the top 15 hype that folks are speaking about. 

[Brass Cannon]

14 minutes ago, Hoosierfan2017 said:

I don’t agree. I think people are really overhyping our ‘depth.’ Take away the two 5 star freshmen and the top 7 is Trayce, Race, Xavier, Kopp, Geronimo, Bates, and Galloway. That’s the same roster that finished 9th in the conference and got blown out in the round of 64 minus Stewart and Phinisee. 

I’m optimistic for next season because we’re bringing in two top 30 freshman from the high school national champions. I’m expecting them to be major contributors because top 30 guys typically have been on IU teams. If those guys aren’t playing significant minutes then I truly don’t see the top 15 hype that folks are speaking about. 

I don’t think we need them both to be big contributors.  We need JHS to though simply because who we lost.  We need him to be an upgrade over Stewart and Phinisee. 
 

One value though is that we kept our top 7 together essentially.  Yeah we lost starting minutes because of positions but I think the case could be made those 7 guys were out best 7.  They will now be another year older and more developed.  How many times does a team pull that off 

EDIT 

Looked at advanced Metrics. Of players playing 400+ minutes. We kept our 5 most efficient players who will all be a year older and could theoretically form a decent starting lineup.  Next 4 we’re. Phinisee, Kopp, Stewart(A starter wtf) And Bates.  Of our rotation we kept our top 5 and our 7th and 9th. Losing our 6th and 8th.  
 

By virtue of keeping our top 5 who will be another year developed we are in really good position. Adding two 5 stars to the mix is also key because it’s the rare 5 star that can’t at least be a bench contributor.  

[CSP]

9 minutes ago, Hoosierfan2017 said:

I don’t agree. I think people are really overhyping our ‘depth.’ Take away the two 5 star freshmen and the top 7 is Trayce, Race, Xavier, Kopp, Geronimo, Bates, and Galloway. That’s the same roster that finished 9th in the conference and got blown out in the round of 64 minus Stewart and Phinisee. 

I’m optimistic for next season because we’re bringing in two top 30 freshman from the high school national champions. I’m expecting them to be major contributors because top 30 guys typically have been on IU teams. If those guys aren’t playing significant minutes then I truly don’t see the top 15 hype that folks are speaking about. 

If Archie Miller was the coach I'd agree. 

[Hoosierfan2017]

4 minutes ago, btownqb said:

If Archie Miller was the coach I'd agree. 

Woodson is a better coach than Archie, but even the best coaches need some horses to work with. I want JHS playing 25 mpg and Reneau playing 18-20 mpg.

We have a very solid top 3. Our next four, based on their play last year, was mediocre. If we want to be a top 15 team next year we need a lot more from guys 4-7 than what we got from Bates/Kopp/Galloway/Geronimo. Some of that can be from those four improving, certainly, but what we really need is for the two 5 stars to come in and play like it. 

[PB1230]

1 hour ago, Hoosierfan2017 said:

I don’t agree. I think people are really overhyping our ‘depth.’ Take away the two 5 star freshmen and the top 7 is Trayce, Race, Xavier, Kopp, Geronimo, Bates, and Galloway. That’s the same roster that finished 9th in the conference and got blown out in the round of 64 minus Stewart and Phinisee. 

I’m optimistic for next season because we’re bringing in two top 30 freshman from the high school national champions. I’m expecting them to be major contributors because top 30 guys typically have been on IU teams. If those guys aren’t playing significant minutes then I truly don’t see the top 15 hype that folks are speaking about. 

The reason IU finished 9th was inconsistent play at the 1-3 spots (with the exception X towards the end of the season) exacerbated by injuries of 2 of the primary 5 players in rotation at those spots. The post talent/depth wasn’t an issue. 
 

id say JHS is probably a 20min+ player, but unless Reneau turns out to be a one and done level talent, minutes for him could be hard to come by. 

[lillurk]

IMO TJD returning and the roster changes setup nicely for the 5 star frosh to have roles without a ton of downside risk. Like if JHS had to be your clear primary PG and ballhandler…that can work, but it’s just much more comfortable for him to get a bunch of minutes as a secondary one, focus on defending and playing within the system offensively.

Same with Malik: if he’s ready for 20 MPG, it’s probably there for him to earn. If he’s not quite, well, fine, 12 will do.

[PB1230]

12 minutes ago, lillurk said:

IMO TJD returning and the roster changes setup nicely for the 5 star frosh to have roles without a ton of downside risk. Like if JHS had to be your clear primary PG and ballhandler…that can work, but it’s just much more comfortable for him to get a bunch of minutes as a secondary one, focus on defending and playing within the system offensively.

Same with Malik: if he’s ready for 20 MPG, it’s probably there for him to earn. If he’s not quite, well, fine, 12 will do.

Fundamentally, whether Reneau’s talent warrants 10 or 20 or even 30 minutes, it’s only going to have incremental impact on the season. IU has 120 minutes for the 1-3 spots. 30ish will go to X, and the season will hinge on what happens with the other 90

[Hoosierfan2017]

53 minutes ago, PB1230 said:

The reason IU finished 9th was inconsistent play at the 1-3 spots (with the exception X towards the end of the season) exacerbated by injuries of 2 of the primary 5 players in rotation at those spots. The post talent/depth wasn’t an issue. 
 

id say JHS is probably a 20min+ player, but unless Reneau turns out to be a one and done level talent, minutes for him could be hard to come by. 

The frontcourt definitely wasn’t the issue. Race/Trayce combined for 60 mpg last year, which leaves around 20 mpg for a backup frontcourt player. Race wore down at the end of last year, so maybe Woody tries to play him a few fewer mpg next season. I’d like for Reneau to be good enough to get a large bulk of those minutes, and I expect him to be good enough. He’s ranked/rated in between where Thomas Bryant and TJD were as high school seniors. Both of those guys were good enough as freshmen to be 20 mpg guys on quality teams. I think Reneau will be too. 

[WayneFleekHoosier]

I think the minutes distribution seems along the same lines as I’m thinking.

2 things. 1. Yes we were a mediocre team last year results wise. But we lost a lot of close games. Flip those and statistically we would have had a big season last season on paper.

2. The majority of this team has played together and will be better because of that. Plus with that much returning talent, many will improve/develop in their own personal ways. It happens naturally and with good coaching can happen at an accelerated rate.

Wants:
1. Pick up speed of game in general. More transition play (TJD is a great running big). More 3s and more crashing the boards (if we play Geronimo at the 3 we should have rebounding advantage over most teams. Utilize it).
2. Obviously shooting at every level, but especially FT and 3 ball.

Banks is one I think about. He seems to provide a lot of what we want Race to do. If Race improves/steadies his shooting he gives us what we need. If not and TJD doesn’t improve shooting, we need shooting from the 4/5. Banks could maybe provide that. Not sure he will get that chance.


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[Brass Cannon]

21 minutes ago, WayneFleekHoosier said:

I think the minutes distribution seems along the same lines as I’m thinking.

2 things. 1. Yes we were a mediocre team last year results wise. But we lost a lot of close games. Flip those and statistically we would have had a big season last season on paper.

2. The majority of this team has played together and will be better because of that. Plus with that much returning talent, many will improve/develop in their own personal ways. It happens naturally and with good coaching can happen at an accelerated rate.

Wants:
1. Pick up speed of game in general. More transition play (TJD is a great running big). More 3s and more crashing the boards (if we play Geronimo at the 3 we should have rebounding advantage over most teams. Utilize it).
2. Obviously shooting at every level, but especially FT and 3 ball.

Banks is one I think about. He seems to provide a lot of what we want Race to do. If Race improves/steadies his shooting he gives us what we need. If not and TJD doesn’t improve shooting, we need shooting from the 4/5. Banks could maybe provide that. Not sure he will get that chance.


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Good call on Banks. He might not get much run this year but our front court will likely free up a lot after this year.  I talk a lot about Trayce saying and while I thought he would stay the last couple years. I’m not expecting it. 
 

We are going to lose a lot after next year.  Our guys not getting minutes will hopefully not being transferring because of that.  

[DChoosier]

3 hours ago, PB1230 said:

Although, none of the big men had any real competition for minutes, and to a lesser extent neither did Yogi (only other viable guard was Abell). A freshman TJD/Vonleh/Bryant would lose 10-15 minutes walking into our current roster.

Yogi’s competition was that the previous season, before Yogi arrived, Hulls led IU to the sweet 16 as our junior PG.

I agree we didn’t have a lot of guard depth, in Yogi’s freshman year, but it’s still a big accomplishment (and a testimony to how good most, but not all, highly ranked players are) for a freshman to come and be good enough to move a senior PG to a different position. Handing over the PG keys to a freshman, when you have a proven senior, is a big deal.