What Can IUBB do to Revive Your Excitement/Confidence?

[Brass Cannon]

2 minutes ago, Hoosierfan2017 said:

We didn’t make the dance last year. It’s not Archie’s fault that the tournament got canceled, but it is his fault that we went 9-11 in the conference. We’ve finished worse in the conference each of his three years so far. We’ve went from t-6th to 9th to t-10th. There was no need for a complete rebuild when Archie took over. Our team wasn’t great but we didn’t have terrible players either. We landed Romeo, which should have ended the rebuild right there, but we missed the tournament with him too. 
 

Do I want to sit through another rebuild? No. But I also don’t want to sit through another bad year like the past three. If Archie can’t get the job done, and he sure hasn’t looked like he can get the job done so far, then firing him and hiring a new coach will be the only answer. He’s in a worse position in year 4 than Tom Crean was, and Crean actually had to do a complete rebuild. All of Archie’s recruiting momentum is gone. He has whiffed on target after target in the 2021 class. I see no reason not to expect next year to be more of the same mediocrity. 
 

And if it’s not the NBA where coaches can step right in and succeed, why have we seen other coaches do that? Chris Mack made the tournament in his first season at Louisville and then went 15-5 and finished second in the ACC in his second season. It seems like IU is the only place where multi-year rebuilds are the norm. 

FA starts next year.  A good coach will be able to assemble a roster he can succeed with next year if we have the guts to fire Archie. 
 

Archie was a PG that can’t find a PG for his offense.  Using Al as a PG is almost as bad as Crean using Morgan

[pumpfake]

Honestly, I can't think of much that can be done short term.  I haven't seen any proof that CAM can "coach em' up".  I don't have any faith that anything will change with the current players, staff,  or recruiting fortunes in the foreseeable future.

Beyond that, I'm tired of bringing in modestly successful coaches or an unproven one.  We are mired in mediocrity with a fanbase that expects much more and an administration which doesn't.

[Loaded Chicken Sandwich]

Why does everyone believe you have to start from scratch with a coaching change? Or that it takes 5 years for a coach? Even Crean made it work in year 4. This team would get absolutely ran out of the gym against the 11-12' team. Hire a good coach. Experienced or not. Time for a change before it's too late. 

[pumpfake]

14 minutes ago, Hoosierfan2017 said:

We didn’t make the dance last year. It’s not Archie’s fault that the tournament got canceled, but it is his fault that we went 9-11 in the conference. We’ve finished worse in the conference each of his three years so far. We’ve went from t-6th to 9th to t-10th. There was no need for a complete rebuild when Archie took over. Our team wasn’t great but we didn’t have terrible players either. We landed Romeo, which should have ended the rebuild right there, but we missed the tournament with him too. 
 

Do I want to sit through another rebuild? No. But I also don’t want to sit through another bad year like the past three. If Archie can’t get the job done, and he sure hasn’t looked like he can get the job done so far, then firing him and hiring a new coach will be the only answer. He’s in a worse position in year 4 than Tom Crean was, and Crean actually had to do a complete rebuild. All of Archie’s recruiting momentum is gone. He has whiffed on target after target in the 2021 class. I see no reason not to expect next year to be more of the same mediocrity. 
 

And if it’s not the NBA where coaches can step right in and succeed, why have we seen other coaches do that? Chris Mack made the tournament in his first season at Louisville and then went 15-5 and finished second in the ACC in his second season. It seems like IU is the only place where multi-year rebuilds are the norm. 

I'd just add Underwood to the list of recent coaches that turned things around in the same timeframe.

[8bucks]

I wanted Archie to succeed and though he still might the evidence is lacking and the definition of success seems to be changing. 
 

while I would prefer we hit a home run with a young guy who can lead us to greatness for decades. That may be too much to ask though and I would be fine with someone who had won at this level even if older. 

[JSHoosier]

1 hour ago, Treesh said:

Well our defense has improved each year. Something CTC could never do, because he was too worried about scoring, which is fair of course. 
 

Only time will tell to see if Archie will be on a similar path. We made the dance last year and I believe we will this year as well. For a complete rebuild in terms of basketball standpoint for these players, It’s a step in the right direction. 
 

Does the fan base really want to sit through another rebuild with a new coach? And yes it will be a rebuild, this isn’t the NBA where coaches can just step in and win right away. I like Josh’s comment with Dane Fife. Indiana guy with years of experience under a great coach in Izzo. Would it be risky? YES! 
 

My list is short- Brad Stevens. Unrealistic but there’s always a chance of anything in life. We need a coach with final four experience. We can list a lot of coaches with conference championships but who cares about those honestly. 
 

I won’t be ready to move on from Archie until maybe mid next season at the earliest. I like him, I think he’s pretty darn good actually. If our players could shoot, I think we’re in a different situation. Rob / Hunter / Al didn’t pan out like we all thought they could. (maybe not Al but you get it). 

It's kind of his fault that the roster still can't shoot, he should not get a pass for having the same problems every year.

[Loaded Chicken Sandwich]

When your guards consistently don't pass it to you so they can "run the offense"....

 

[TXHoosierDaddy]

This is supposed to be the year with TJD. After this year we almost certainly lose him and have no immediate replacement. I would say if we can't have moderate success this year it isn't looking any better next year and Archie will start to be on the hot seat. Lot of bball to play this year but based on what we've seen its hard to imagine this team being over .500 in the BIG. 

[Loaded Chicken Sandwich]

The consensus seems to be from many fans that you can't fire Archie after 4 years because then it seems like you aren't patient... Even if results are bad, you have to ride it out for X amount of years for a reputation of patience rather than expectations of delivering. This is why the program is in the crapper. 

[Hoosierfan2017]

32 minutes ago, Loaded Chicken Sandwich said:

The consensus seems to be from many fans that you can't fire Archie after 4 years because then it seems like you aren't patient... Even if results are bad, you have to ride it out for X amount of years for a reputation of patience rather than expectations of delivering. This is why the program is in the crapper. 

I understand not firing him after this year because it’s a weird pandemic season. Things would have to go completely off the deep end this year for that to happen. But his seat should be red hot going into next year.

[Brass Cannon]

1 minute ago, Hoosierfan2017 said:

I understand not firing him after this year because it’s a weird pandemic season. Things would have to go completely off the deep end this year for that to happen. But his seat should be red hot going into next year.

If a guys seat is hot how often do they come out of it successfully?   

[Hoosierfan2017]

2 minutes ago, Brass Cannon said:

If a guys seat is hot how often do they come out of it successfully?   

Not very often I have to imagine. I fully expect him to be fired pretty soon. I just don’t think it’ll be after this season. Next year is when I think it’ll happen, barring a huge turnaround. 

[craigyv88]

My only expectations or aspirations at this time are to beat Purdue, be competitive night in and night out, and just be in the tournament regardless of seed.  Just those things alone would restore excitement and confidence for me, but they have been tough to come by.

I’m not on the fire Archie train yet and I would like for him to succeed, but to throw out a name just for fun, how about the coach that beat us last night?  That may sound like being a prisoner of the moment but I was a proponent of Chris Collins getting a hard look when the job was open in 2017 and he had just taken NW to the tournament for the first time ever.  He has a solid coaching pedigree and background having spent 13 years as an assistant at Duke prior to getting the NW job, and his father was a long-time coach in the NBA.  And, if you throw out last year where NW’s rotation was primarily freshman/sophomores and a lacrosse player, his win pct at Northwestern is not all that different than Archie’s at IU (.520 vs .571) and he has a tournament victory in the past four seasons, something that can’t be said about CAM or CTC.   NW has also lost a lot of close games in recent years so that win pct could easily be a bit better.  His teams have an identity on offense and play hard.

Finally, Collins is an underrated recruiter with strong ties to the Chicago area that date back to before his time at NW.  Robbie Beran, Miller Kopp, and Pete Nance were all 4-star recruits and 2021 commit Casey Simmons is as well.  NW also received consideration from top-5 national prospect Pat Baldwin Jr and Collins was involved in some big-time recruitments while at Duke.

Not saying we need to pull the plug on Archie and throw big money at Collins ASAP, but he has always intrigued me as a coaching prospect and always struck me as a better coach than what he’s  given credit for.

[mdn82]

Just win.

[WayneFleekHoosier]

If Archie was being honest with himself, he’d have to admit he’s not living up to the expectations of his hiring. I’m certain he is aware of this. I like his competitive spirit and I thought that alone might be enough to burst through, but each year as our team stagnates I lose hope. At what point does Archie lose confidence? Has that already happened?

You can feel it amongst the fanbase, can’t be easy for Archie. He needs a Hail Mary. I just don’t know what he can do. He doesn’t have the horses. He hasn’t recruited the horses. It’s a failing proposition.


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[TheWatShot]

1 hour ago, TXHoosierDaddy said:

This is supposed to be the year with TJD. After this year we almost certainly lose him and have no immediate replacement. I would say if we can't have moderate success this year it isn't looking any better next year and Archie will start to be on the hot seat. Lot of bball to play this year but based on what we've seen its hard to imagine this team being over .500 in the BIG. 

We're not "almost certainly losing him." This is something that's been posted so many times, it's now taken as fact. We don't know what his plans are. But having said that, I'm not sure why he'd want to spend another season in this offense. 

[Brass Cannon]

1 minute ago, TheWatShot said:

We're not "almost certainly losing him." This is something that's been posted so many times, it's now taken as fact. We don't know what his plans are. But having said that, I'm not sure why he'd want to spend another season in this offense. 

Your most talented scorer should never have to beg for the ball.  If you have several studs that’s one thing but when he’s it he should touch the ball every possession in a position to score. 

[WayneFleekHoosier]

Just win.

True story


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[Brass Cannon]

Just now, WayneFleekHoosier said:

True story


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Best I can do for you is a mediocre Kenpom ranking.  Can I have an extension?

[lillurk]

7 minutes ago, mdn82 said:

Just win.

I’d agree with this. Obviously it’s not quite this simple but in my opinion IU should almost always be a top ~7 tourney seed, of course often shading higher and acknowledging that even the best programs have down years in a success cycle occasionally. The down years are easier to endure if you’re otherwise consistently winning.

Once in the tournament, IU should regularly make the second weekend and threaten to go deeper, achieving it sometimes, of course. The nature of tournaments means even the best years (‘12, ‘13) sometimes fall short of their potential, and other teams (‘16) roughly meet it but could luck into more with a favorable path.

At a place like IU this is imminently reasonable, even quickly after a coaching change. Sampson didn’t have tons beyond DJ White and some serviceable B1G caliber guys, he made the tourney both years (and had a great team in y2). Crean inherited nothing and had the aforementioned ‘12 and ‘13 teams in years 4 and 5. Archie inherited a few B1G caliber pieces — less than Sampson but way, way more than Crean — and hasn’t met my outlined expectations above.

It’s of course still possible he meets them this year, and if that sets a new level for his version of the program, the slow growth will be easier to forgive. But:

1. There’s no inherent reason the growth had to be this slow. See above, see Illinois or OSU or heck, Rutgers. Those who point to other pack line teams may have a point about the defense’s timeline to elite status, but I’m skeptical it has to be that way.

2. in year 4 at IU your offense should be better. Better guard play, better shooting, better depth, better overall results. Even if you’re “defense first,” you can or should outsource to an assistant or tweak.

3. The roster is absolutely his responsibility, good and bad. He didn’t offer Eric Hunter. He slow-played Aaron Henry to wait on Damezi. He’s mostly sat out the transfer market even with glaring holes. I know some here like carrying an empty scholarship, but wouldn’t it be nice to have an extra big or a better, experienced guard in that grant right now? And as mentioned elsewhere, while Lander and Stewart early plus Duncomb is an okay if unorthodox 2021 class of sorts, the recruiting has mostly whiffed in 2021 and has nothing beyond that. His teams have consistently been a guy short and/or one injury from disaster 

Without significant growth, that gives me concern about next year’s team even if this year ends up better than last night. Two terrible performances in eight is bad.

In my opinion, there are substantial problems I’ve outlined here that concern me about the big picture of the Miller program as well as the snapshot today, Christmas Eve 2020. I want IU to win consistently and I have some concerns that he’s the guy to make that happen, as I’ve had since the day he started. If he can get the program there of course I’ll be pleased, but I think the reasons here are a stronger argument than the hope, faith, and eternal patience of the folks who think we’re fine still.