No. 19/17 IUFB vs. No. 9/8 Illinois - Sat 9/20 @ 7:30 on NBC

[Hovadipo]

Never too early to get this thread started. 

Line is currently hovering between IU -4.5/5.5, O/U 52.5.

[Stuhoo]

Let’s 

*******

Go

[Hovadipo]

I can't quit thinking about the parallels between this team and last year's team. A lot of the same/similar pieces on both sides of the ball obviously, but also how the non-con has played out. A solid, but unimpressive win (against a MUCH better opponent this year), a pretty slow start that turns into a thorough thumping in non-con #2, and a complete undressing of an (again, much better) FCS squad.

The thing that stands out the most in the comparison to last year, though, is how vanilla we have been. We did enough to get the looks we needed to get, but especially defensively up front, we haven't put 5% of what we'll unleash in conference on tape. The Illinois OL is weak, Altmeyer is not great against pressure, and that happens to be Bryant Haines' specialty. We are once again toward the top of the country in things like havoc rate without even playing the hits yet. I think this is the week we see Mikail Kamara come back into form. If they're able to create consistent pressure Saturday, it might be a long day for the boys in orange and blue.

I'll be curious to see our OL go up against a really strong group in Illinois. This could easily turn into a low scoring slugfest if we aren't able to crack their code with the RPO and traditional run game. Definitely a clash of strengths there.

I am so fired up for this game. The Rock will be absolutely rockin'.

[coonhounds]

Getting pumped for this game!, hopefully we can win!

Sent from my SM-S926U using Tapatalk

[Dave from Dayton]

The whole world is watching!!      Bison nails visiting Illini.  It is written.  

[IUFootballHappyHappyJoyJoy]

Will definitely be going to Kilroys Saturday night.

[Lebowski]

• The run game this year is all because of the upgrades on the front 5 during the off season. 
• Not having Beebe might be a big factor.
• The run game is key to get a complete blowout.

If the run game isn't working then IUFB is in a dog fight.  Which might be the case, Illinois' D is 14th in the country with 74.7 rushing YDS/G. IUFB's O is 3rd in the country with 307.7 YDS/G. If the run game is same ole same ole the game won't even be close because play action will get us points, quick. 

But overall, the IUFB D will win or lose this game. They can't have missed assignments like they did against ODU. 

Worth the listen. You'll come out of it a little more confident about our chances. 

Things to note since this podcast was released. Illinois' defense is probably a little better than discussed.

[HoosierX]

I'll be going to this one. Super pumped!!

Hopefully it goes as well as the last game I went to in Bloomington. (Nebraska)

[Rico]

13 hours ago, Dave from Dayton said:

The whole world is watching!!      Bison nails visiting Illini.  It is written.  

[Rico]

From "The Champaign Room":

https://www.thechampaignroom.com/illinois-fighting-illini-news/46988/they-got-talent-all-over-the-challenges-illinois-will-face-at-iu-fighting-illini-ncaa-big-ten-indiana-hoosiers

[cthomas]

44 minutes ago, Rico said:

From "The Champaign Room":

https://www.thechampaignroom.com/illinois-fighting-illini-news/46988/they-got-talent-all-over-the-challenges-illinois-will-face-at-iu-fighting-illini-ncaa-big-ten-indiana-hoosiers

I think this game is the first time Mendosa is going to face adversity. He's definitely improved over the season so far but I'm not completely confident in how he's going to handle what's coming. I think this game is going to be determined by which quarterback handles the defensive pressure the best.

[Lebowski]

6 minutes ago, cthomas said:

I think this game is the first time Mendosa is going to face adversity. He's definitely improved over the season so far but I'm not completely confident in how he's going to handle what's coming. I think this game is going to be determined by which quarterback handles the defensive pressure the best.

Altmyer won't be out there having a picnic either. Just google his under pressure stats. This will be his first real test of a solid D from top to bottom. If we can't run the ball we'll be in a dog fight but because of our defense I still like our chances overall. 

[Hovadipo]

7 minutes ago, cthomas said:

I think this game is the first time Mendosa is going to face adversity. He's definitely improved over the season so far but I'm not completely confident in how he's going to handle what's coming. I think this game is going to be determined by which quarterback handles the defensive pressure the best.

Cal was 128th nationally in sack rate last season. Mendoza is very familiar with pressure and getting the ball out quickly. Altmeyer kinda sucks at it.

[Lebowski]

17 minutes ago, Hovadipo said:

Cal was 128th nationally in sack rate last season. Mendoza is very familiar with pressure and getting the ball out quickly. Altmeyer kinda sucks at it.

Altmyer's last year stats highlight a stark contrast between his performance when the pocket is clean versus when he's under duress. While he excels with clean pockets, his numbers take a notable dip when pressured. So the big question marks for all of us are did he work on this during the off season and will our D show up.

[Hovadipo]

9 minutes ago, Lebowski said:

Altmyer's last year stats highlight a stark contrast between his performance when the pocket is clean versus when he's under duress. While he excels with clean pockets, his numbers take a notable dip when pressured. So the big question marks for all of us are did he work on this during the off season and will our D show up.

I think the squad all by itself in the top right of this chart spends its Saturday evening in Altmeyer's earhole.

Maybe I'm confirmation biasing myself into a bad take, but the more metrics I look at the more this feels like we could Nebraska this thing. And we don't even need to go Full Nebraska. Even a half or quarter Nebraska would work.

 

[TTT]

Western Michy vs Illinois 38-0.  However, W. M. 204  yards offensively, 3.5 yards per play, 12 first downs, 3 for 14 3rd downs (big stat failure), 8 punts…..a weak dominant performance depending on how good is W.M…..Not near as good as Old Dominion…expect big/excellent game from IU QB…..which means rest of offense is having a big/excellent game.

[Lebowski]

24 minutes ago, Hovadipo said:

I think the squad all by itself in the top right of this chart spends its Saturday evening in Altmeyer's earhole.

Maybe I'm confirmation biasing myself into a bad take, but the more metrics I look at the more this feels like we could Nebraska this thing. And we don't even need to go Full Nebraska. Even a half or quarter Nebraska would work.

 

Run game is key for Nebraska. And to be fair, Altmyer isn't a freshman. 

[Hovadipo]

10 minutes ago, Lebowski said:

Run game is key for Nebraska. And to be fair, Altmyer isn't a freshman. 

It's Thursday of Illinois week, rational thinking/behavior has come and gone I'm afraid.

[Class of '66 Old Fart]

Jeff Rabjohns @JeffRabjohns

Injury news: Illinois All-Big Ten cornerback Xavier Scott not expected to play Saturday when No. 19 Indiana hosts No. 9 Illinois

[Stuhoo]

3 minutes ago, Class of '66 Old Fart said:

Jeff Rabjohns @JeffRabjohns

Injury news: Illinois All-Big Ten cornerback Xavier Scott not expected to play Saturday when No. 19 Indiana hosts No. 9 Illinois

Excelle…. Uh, I mean… awwww, darn that stinks.