Transfer Portal w IU Interest

[RaceToTheTop 26,738]

2 hours ago, WayneFleekHoosier said:

Kanaan Carlyle visiting in a couple weeks.

 

i shouldn’t be surprised that a staff that doesn’t understand basketball analytics doesn’t take at least some “money ball” approach to recruitng.  
 

underwhelming player imo.  Another poor shooting guard.  

Disagree.  His shooting numbers were basically Mgbako's shooting numbers last year, both as freshman in power 5 conferences.  Top 60 recruit from last season.  Can play the 1 or 2.   Had 28 points in an 18 point win over Arizona and 31 points in a loss to Washington State.

If it was a junior/senior putting up those numbers I'd be concerned, but I think jumps from freshman to sophomores are to be expected.

[IUCrazy2 2,559]

6 hours ago, Uspshoosier said:

Why are people worried about what a former poster that nobody listened to anyway or agreed with in the first place enough to post screenshots of their Twitter account? Just let him post his noise elsewhere.  I hardly paid attention to it when it was on here I’m certainly not going to go out of my way to find it elsewhere.  

Speaking for me, whether that poster is connected to someone on the staff or not (it is a possibility), that person does seem to be sharing thinking that is conceivably in parallel to the coaching staff's thinking.

Everything should be a grain of salt but there is the possibility that following that person is giving a little window into the culture of our coaching staff.  (And IMO it isn't pretty but your mileage may vary.)

[RaceToTheTop 26,738]

2 hours ago, WayneFleekHoosier said:

I look at all of it.

But at some point you are to a degree what your stats say you are. He’s young enough he can grow and get better. That needs factored in as well but we need guys who ready to roll.


Sent from my iPad using BtownBanners mobile app

Just to show the comparison:

Mgbako:  27 mpg, 39.5% fg, 32.7% 3 pt, 82.1 ft, 4.1 reb, 1.3 ast, 12.2 pts

Carlyle:  25.6 mpg, 38.6% fg, 32.0 3 pt%, 77.6 ft, 2.7 reb, 2.7 ast, 11.5 pts

[Hoosier DaDa 2,918]

15 minutes ago, RaceToTheTop said:

Just to show the comparison:

Mgbako:  27 mpg, 39.5% fg, 32.7% 3 pt, 82.1 ft, 4.1 reb, 1.3 ast, 12.2 pts

Carlyle:  25.6 mpg, 38.6% fg, 32.0 3 pt%, 77.6 ft, 2.7 reb, 2.7 ast, 11.5 pts

Those numbers for a freshman I likey, BUT can he defend?

[Certified Sunshine Pumper 9,499]

18 minutes ago, RaceToTheTop said:

Just to show the comparison:

Mgbako:  27 mpg, 39.5% fg, 32.7% 3 pt, 82.1 ft, 4.1 reb, 1.3 ast, 12.2 pts

Carlyle:  25.6 mpg, 38.6% fg, 32.0 3 pt%, 77.6 ft, 2.7 reb, 2.7 ast, 11.5 pts

I think there is a massive confusion about how hard this stuff is to do as a FR/what a good shooting % from 3 is, currently. 

[Hoosierfan2017 22,138]

4 minutes ago, btownqb said:

I think there is a massive confusion about how hard this stuff is to do as a FR/what a good shooting % from 3 is, currently. 

32% from 3 is definitely not a good percentage. Especially when it’s on meh volume. IU shot 32% from 3 as a team last year - good for 273rd in the country. 

[OKHOOSIER 3,195]

Watched a couple recorded ISU games I had saved this week, and the word enamored does not do justice to how much I like Conwell. Thats a must get if he doesn’t follow Shertz to the Saint Louis Pigs. 

[lillurk 3,835]

14 minutes ago, Hoosierfan2017 said:

32% from 3 is definitely not a good percentage. Especially when it’s on meh volume. IU shot 32% from 3 as a team last year - good for 273rd in the country. 

He took 100 3s in 23 games, playing 25 minutes. 46% of his field goals were 3PA. It’s true that 32% is pedestrian in a vacuum, but please read this, to the point @btownqb and @RaceToTheTop are making:

https://johngasaway.com/2019/11/01/one-shooting-forecast-for-tre-jones-and-his-statistical-cohorts/

The short version: frosh who shoot lots of 3s have the trust of their coaches and typically turn into good shooters. Tre Jones’ % increased by 10 points as a sophomore to 36%, and he’s currently shooting 35% from the longer NBA line. (He’s not the only example therein.)

[HoosierHoopster 7,271]

7 minutes ago, lillurk said:

He took 100 3s in 23 games, playing 25 minutes. 46% of his field goals were 3PA. It’s true that 32% is pedestrian in a vacuum, but please read this, to the point @btownqb and @RaceToTheTop are making:

https://johngasaway.com/2019/11/01/one-shooting-forecast-for-tre-jones-and-his-statistical-cohorts/

The short version: frosh who shoot lots of 3s have the trust of their coaches and typically turn into good shooters. Tre Jones’ % increased by 10 points as a sophomore to 36%, and he’s currently shooting 35% from the longer NBA line. (He’s not the only example therein.)

There are a gazillion examples. Always great to see frosh shooting higher 3-point percentages on equivalent number or more shots, but plenty of shooters improve (as they should) by soph year, it's a huge jump to the college level with experienced college players defending the shot

[AKHoosier 7,084]

5 minutes ago, lillurk said:

He took 100 3s in 23 games, playing 25 minutes. 46% of his field goals were 3PA. It’s true that 32% is pedestrian in a vacuum, but please read this, to the point @btownqb and @RaceToTheTop are making:

https://johngasaway.com/2019/11/01/one-shooting-forecast-for-tre-jones-and-his-statistical-cohorts/

The short version: frosh who shoot lots of 3s have the trust of their coaches and typically turn into good shooters. Tre Jones’ % increased by 10 points as a sophomore to 36%, and he’s currently shooting 35% from the longer NBA line. (He’s not the only example therein.)

Plenty of players regress from year to year too.

Remember, "It's not my job to get Miller Kopp shots." Kopp was a good shooter too. 

A player can have the confidence of his coach, but what if his coach is Mike Woodson and would rather he throw it into the post?

For the record I do like Carlyle, think he would be a good one to add. But he's not inspiring a ton of confidence that he'll fix our outside shooting woes.

[Hoosierfan2017 22,138]

13 minutes ago, lillurk said:

He took 100 3s in 23 games, playing 25 minutes. 46% of his field goals were 3PA. It’s true that 32% is pedestrian in a vacuum, but please read this, to the point @btownqb and @RaceToTheTop are making:

https://johngasaway.com/2019/11/01/one-shooting-forecast-for-tre-jones-and-his-statistical-cohorts/

The short version: frosh who shoot lots of 3s have the trust of their coaches and typically turn into good shooters. Tre Jones’ % increased by 10 points as a sophomore to 36%, and he’s currently shooting 35% from the longer NBA line. (He’s not the only example therein.)

The article states that 

“Since 1992-93, when the sports-reference.com data (highest recommendation) on such things kicks in, we’ve seen 135 major-conference player-seasons that met the following criteria:

1. Freshman or sophomore
2. At least 100 three-point attempts
3. Three-point percentage under 30
4. Returned the following season

Collectively, those 135 players went 6,197 of 17,753 on their threes the following season. That nets out to 34.9 percent.” 

34.9% from 3 isn’t good either. Tre Jones’ 36% his sophomore year at Duke wasn’t bad, but it wasn’t great either given his lowish volume (3.7/game).

Sure players improve and can become good shooters. It just seems like every year we’re banking on players improving over the summer, and more often than not they don’t. Jordan Geronimo was going to take a huge jump. Then Tamar Bates was going to take a jump. This past year it was going to be Gunn and Banks.

IU has millions of dollars to spend on portal players. Instead of bringing in guys you hope can improve on shooting, why not spend that on a couple guards who are already shooting 40% or better from 3? Our last really good team had 5 rotation players shoot 40% or better from 3. Thomas Bryant was the only guy who shot worse than 34.7% from 3 on that team, and he was at 33.3%. 

[SamIam 679]

13 minutes ago, HoosierHoopster said:

There are a gazillion examples. Always great to see frosh shooting higher 3-point percentages on equivalent number or more shots, but plenty of shooters improve (as they should) by soph year, it's a huge jump to the college level with experienced college players defending the shot

Perfect example is the aforementioned Ryan Conwell, who shot only 30% last year. This year he hit 73 more 3's than he did as a freshman at a 42% clip.

It's hard to adjust to the speed and physicality of the game as a freshmen, 32% is a fine percentage to expect a jump next year. 

[RaceToTheTop 26,738]

1 hour ago, AKHoosier said:

Only one of those schools is close to home (IU) so he certainly seems ok with not coming back to Indiana anytime soon.

Thought that might have been something to tip the scales in our favor.

Can think of it that way, or can think of it as if he chooses to move close to home, there is no competition.

[lillurk 3,835]

10 minutes ago, Hoosierfan2017 said:

The article states that 

“Since 1992-93, when the sports-reference.com data (highest recommendation) on such things kicks in, we’ve seen 135 major-conference player-seasons that met the following criteria:

1. Freshman or sophomore
2. At least 100 three-point attempts
3. Three-point percentage under 30
4. Returned the following season

Collectively, those 135 players went 6,197 of 17,753 on their threes the following season. That nets out to 34.9 percent.” 

34.9% from 3 isn’t good either. Tre Jones’ 36% his sophomore year at Duke wasn’t bad, but it wasn’t great either given his lowish volume (3.7/game).

Sure players improve and can become good shooters. It just seems like every year we’re banking on players improving over the summer, and more often than not they don’t. Jordan Geronimo was going to take a huge jump. Then Tamar Bates was going to take a jump. This past year it was going to be Gunn and Banks.

IU has millions of dollars to spend on portal players. Instead of bringing in guys you hope can improve on shooting, why not spend that on a couple guards who are already shooting 40% or better from 3? Our last really good team had 5 rotation players shoot 40% or better from 3. Thomas Bryant was the only guy who shot worse than 34.7% from 3 on that team, and he was at 33.3%. 

Guys with 3 years of eligibility left who shoot well enough for you and have the other skills we’d want to see are lottery picks.

IU definitely needs to shoot better but it also needs much better guard play overall. Lots of the good guards in the portal they’re in on have shooting skill but simply staring at the 3p% column may not show that in a helpful context.

Not every player added this offseason is going to already have everything we’d want on paper.

[RaceToTheTop 26,738]

13 minutes ago, Hoosierfan2017 said:

The article states that 

“Since 1992-93, when the sports-reference.com data (highest recommendation) on such things kicks in, we’ve seen 135 major-conference player-seasons that met the following criteria:

1. Freshman or sophomore
2. At least 100 three-point attempts
3. Three-point percentage under 30
4. Returned the following season

Collectively, those 135 players went 6,197 of 17,753 on their threes the following season. That nets out to 34.9 percent.” 

34.9% from 3 isn’t good either. Tre Jones’ 36% his sophomore year at Duke wasn’t bad, but it wasn’t great either given his lowish volume (3.7/game).

Sure players improve and can become good shooters. It just seems like every year we’re banking on players improving over the summer, and more often than not they don’t. Jordan Geronimo was going to take a huge jump. Then Tamar Bates was going to take a jump. This past year it was going to be Gunn and Banks.

IU has millions of dollars to spend on portal players. Instead of bringing in guys you hope can improve on shooting, why not spend that on a couple guards who are already shooting 40% or better from 3? Our last really good team had 5 rotation players shoot 40% or better from 3. Thomas Bryant was the only guy who shot worse than 34.7% from 3 on that team, and he was at 33.3%. 

So based on that analysis....Myles Rice would project to be a 35% three point shooter next year and Carlyle would be better than that (he was at 32% as a freshman, so probably extrapolates to 37-38%).

Myles Rice is a solid player right now.  Myles Rice shooting 35% from three is a REALLY good player.  Carlyle shooting 37-38% from three makes him a more than solid player as well.

I mean, we could look for someone who all that they can do is shoot the ball, but I'd rather have a high volume 35 or 37% three point shooter who helps out in more ways.  There are players out there like IU picked up in Evan Fitzner mold who shoot 41% from three for threes but can't do anything else.  Fitzner washed out at IU, and even if he had shot 41% he simply didn't add anything else.

[HoosierHuddle 244]

Amari Williams, center from Drexel, has scheduled an official visit for Indiana (along with Florida, St. John's and Creighton). 

[Artie86 2,227]

10 minutes ago, HoosierHuddle said:

Amari Williams, center from Drexel, has scheduled an official visit for Indiana (along with Florida, St. John's and Creighton). 

https://www.thedailyhoosier.com/drexel-transfer-center-amari-williams-has-an-indiana-visit-scheduled/

[IUFAN1976 3,787]

15 minutes ago, HoosierHuddle said:

Amari Williams, center from Drexel, has scheduled an official visit for Indiana (along with Florida, St. John's and Creighton). 

There is our possible rim protector!  

[ebridges24 2,446]

16 minutes ago, HoosierHuddle said:

Amari Williams, center from Drexel, has scheduled an official visit for Indiana (along with Florida, St. John's and Creighton). 

Numbers went down from junior to senior year, but he played 5 less minutes a game.

[ebridges24 2,446]

Coming in the same time as Carlyle, hope that helps.