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Posted
1 minute ago, Loaded Chicken Sandwich said:

Kansas- 70%

Indiana- 25%

St. John's- 4%

Louisville- 1%

Louisville is the final visit which is usually an advantage. The assistant coach who recruited him at Duke is now at Louisville. Louisville  could be the leader.

Posted
Lol
I added a disclaimer to my post. But I don't know why UL wouldn't be the favorite considering they'd have the last visit and the asst coach thing.

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Posted
You have a perfectly reasonable take. So does loaded chicken sandwich 
My giggle was purely based on how reasonable people can come to such diametrically opposed conclusions because no one really knows here.
Well yeah clearly neither of us have a clue. And I'll add that my 'IU Eyore complex' probably comes into play with IU's low chance.

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Posted

I’m thinking about what the original commitment to Duke might mean. Prestige and exposure, winning, PT. Surely NIL $. The assumption is the PT shriveled up and thus the decommitment.

UL and SJU are a distant third and fourth on winning this coming year, you’d expect. SJU is not on the same prestige level. The weights of these things are unknown to us, but I’m sensitive to the idea that IU has a much clearer path to PT, playing through mistakes, almost no chance of getting completely buried on the bench vs. KU.

Where might KU have advantages? Well, maybe prestige if you’re discounting older titles and success, though of course on a flat historical analysis IU has more titles. The other alternative to me seems to be more consistent recent winning. But both were round of 32 exits this year. 

Posted
I added a disclaimer to my post. But I don't know why UL wouldn't be the favorite considering they'd have the last visit and the asst coach thing.

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However, he decommitted from Duke due to role and roster fit. He may have chosen Duke more so because “Duke”. Not saying he doesn’t have a close connection to his recruiter, but I don’t know that it’s a major pull one way vs another considering the role he’s seeking and UL still having a ceiling I could bump my head on.


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Posted


However, he decommitted from Duke due to role and roster fit. He may have chosen Duke more so because “Duke”. Not saying he doesn’t have a close connection to his recruiter, but I don’t know that it’s a major pull one way vs another considering the role he’s seeking and UL still having a ceiling I could bump my head on.


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I would agree and have considered the pull of Duke was more so Duke itself but the fact that he is also going to UL makes me think that connection was pretty meaningful. Idk. Probably only a handful of people do know where he's leaning.

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Posted
24 minutes ago, lillurk said:

I’m thinking about what the original commitment to Duke might mean. Prestige and exposure, winning, PT. Surely NIL $. The assumption is the PT shriveled up and thus the decommitment.

UL and SJU are a distant third and fourth on winning this coming year, you’d expect. SJU is not on the same prestige level. The weights of these things are unknown to us, but I’m sensitive to the idea that IU has a much clearer path to PT, playing through mistakes, almost no chance of getting completely buried on the bench vs. KU.

Where might KU have advantages? Well, maybe prestige if you’re discounting older titles and success, though of course on a flat historical analysis IU has more titles. The other alternative to me seems to be more consistent recent winning. But both were round of 32 exits this year. 

The program prestige thing is always a slippery question. Kansas is one of the undisputed Blue Bloods and now finally got that elusive 4th title. Self is proven. Buuuut program prestige really comes down to whether fans give the prestige or not. Indiana still ranks 3rd in fair market value, behind Kentucky and Louisville. Kansas comes in at 5th. We still have major pull, somehow. 
 

https://graphics.wsj.com/table/COUNT_0330

 

Who knows how adidas weighs in here, but NIL goes well beyond that. I think Woody and his ability to connect with families is huge here. PT and team need is awesome as long as Mackenzie sees himself as a wing. No surprise, the Kansas insiders say he’s a Kansas lock. Funny how that works. 
 

No idea who wins. Woody does have a knack for being the best option at closing time. 

Posted
59 minutes ago, rcs29 said:

I added a disclaimer to my post. But I don't know why UL wouldn't be the favorite considering they'd have the last visit and the asst coach thing.

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Kansas insider said he’d be surprised if the Louisville visit happened. Said he thinks Mgbako will announce following IU visit with it being most likely between IU and Kansas.

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