NCAA MBB Transfer Portal

[cthomas 6,348]

1 hour ago, TeeterInNJ said:

100% true story

I sat next to Jeremiah April and Tim Priller on the first day of Psych 101. We introduced ourselves. 

Jeremiah asked me if I could share my notes with him. Tim told him to take his own. 

I said "You guys are on the basketball team right?" Jeremiah said "Yeah, but if basketball doesn't work out I'm going to move to Colorado and become a Rastafarian." Colorado had just started legal recreational marijuana sales. 

Tim looked mortified, we all awkwardly laughed, and I only sat near them again once all semester. 

I think I'll just excuse myself from the forum until we have a full roster to discuss.

[lillurk 3,738]

Not criticism but some things for everyone to keep in mind:

1. Someone posted the #s with walk-ons removed and it was about 20% of scholarship D1 players.

2. Some of those walk-ons will transfer down and get scholarships at lower levels, but the majority may just land…nowhere, at least on a scholarship. For example: I don’t know former IU walk-on Nate Childress but by all accounts he can really play, maybe he gets a master’s paid for and some cash in his pocket. But it’s also possible he just starts a career, or pursues more schooling without any basketball at all.

3. In fact some former scholarship athletes won’t get offers and will end up having made a bad call to leave a scholarship at their former school. That’s a shame. I don’t have the data but I recall there was some analysis last year for FB or BB that indicated a surprising # of players just don’t have a chair when the music stops. (FWIW I think this is probably not a new phenomenon but a new format in which it occurs; some of the Crean recruiting lowlights mentioned in this thread probably experienced a pre-portal version of this.)

4. National college student persistent rate at by institution is ~75%. I can think of reasons the athlete transfer rate would be different in EITHER direction so it’s possible the equilibrium ends up near the standard student rate when the dust settles. (That would INCLUDE students going pro or dropping out in non-persistence.)

All of this is exacerbated by COVID after-effects still for a few reasons:

5. We still have about two more years of student-athletes with extra years for playing during 2020-2021. There’s some roster crunch created by giving everyone an extra year. (IMHO the Pomeroy argument for giving everyone an extra year permanently is a good one, check it out.)

6. As we expected at the time, a couple years of recruiting, evaluating, and developing were impacted by COVID too, and so the school and player hit rate/fit were probably diminished. If so we might logically assume that would lead to marginally more transfers while some of it “shakes out.”

7. Stating the obvious but for revenue sports, the one-time free transfer is very new and so we’re still developing norms. I wouldn’t be shocked if schools, coaches, or even conferences develop reputations, in fact some already have: it’s hard for non-grad transfers to get into Michigan, On3 ran a whole article on how behind PSU was in NIL, Musselman/Arkansas and Underwood/Illinois have taken plenty, etc. This could also lead to fewer transfers in the future as students who want development pick a school/coach/conference that’s strong there, but another set of students go to the highest bidder out of HS, then some of them realize that was not an ideal choice and use the free transfers to land somewhere great at working with trs.

8. Finally, there’s probably an upper limit on the average annual % of players who transfer. The true number will ebb and flow once the extra COVID years evaporate, but if we assume most players now WON’T sit out and will only transfer once unless as grads, and many students will use one (free or grad) but not both. I’d guess we’re actually close to the upper limit now for all the reasons listed above and the % some years hence may be slightly lower many years.

[jbeaman9 1,021]

#1 transfer portal player Kel'el Ware is in Bloomington and will begin his official visit today at noon and it will continue through tomorrow. He will be visiting with Ledlum. Coach Ya leading the charge on this one and has done a "tremendous job" and "Indiana has a legit shot here" per insiders.

[HoosierFan1994 4,729]

31 minutes ago, jbeaman9 said:

#1 transfer portal player Kel'el Ware is in Bloomington and will begin his official visit today at noon and it will continue through tomorrow. He will be visiting with Ledlum. Coach Ya leading the charge on this one and has done a "tremendous job" and "Indiana has a legit shot here" per insiders.

I have a really good feeling about Ware...feels like when recruits kind of come out of nowhere that's usually a good sign. 

[str8baller 5,133]

34 minutes ago, jbeaman9 said:

#1 transfer portal player Kel'el Ware is in Bloomington and will begin his official visit today at noon and it will continue through tomorrow. He will be visiting with Ledlum. Coach Ya leading the charge on this one and has done a "tremendous job" and "Indiana has a legit shot here" per insiders.

XJ, Galloway, Ledlum, Reneau, Ware would be an interesting starting lineup.  
 

I don’t think we’d see the style of play many are hoping for. But there’s a decent amount of talent there and quite a bit of size. I might have concerns about our perimeter defense again but I suspect it would be better than last year. 

[HoosierFan1994 4,729]

6 minutes ago, str8baller said:

XJ, Galloway, Ledlum, Reneau, Ware would be an interesting starting lineup.  
 

I don’t think we’d see the style of play many are hoping for. But there’s a decent amount of talent there and quite a bit of size. I might have concerns about our perimeter defense again but I suspect it would be better than last year. 

Hope they add Knecht or another wing. Curious if they see Ledlum as a 3 or 4. Really would like for Malik to start. 

[JSHoosier 19,932]

1 minute ago, HoosierFan1994 said:

Hope they add Knecht or another wing. Curious if they see Ledlum as a 3 or 4. Really would like for Malik to start. 

They're recruiting like they want Reneau at the 4, so hopefully he's putting in work.

[HoosierFan1994 4,729]

I laugh at 247 portal rankings...Shedrick was around 42 yesterday. Once Duke gets involved he jumps into the top 20. If Ware commits to IU I bet he goes from 1 to 30.

[RaceToTheTop 25,166]

Jeremiah Davenport, Cincinnati.  6'7" forward.  Bulk three point shooter.  Down year shooting last year, 35/33/78.  Averaged 11.7, 13.4, and 9.1 ppg the past three seasons.

[schoosier 3,462]

17 hours ago, Hardwood83 said:

How do you know what they want? 

He’s on our recruiting board, we have a zoom meeting, and there is mutual interest. I also happen to really like his game. Are you just targeting me or does your comment add anything of relevance? 

[RaceToTheTop 25,166]

10 hours ago, Loaded Chicken Sandwich said:

Oddly enough... I actually liked Hoetzel. He definitely would have been better off on the 12 or 13 team or even the 16 team. Him, Hanner and Which Hand? Stan transferred out... Then we win the B1G. But I do think Hoetzel could have thrived more the year after. He was definitely a good shooter. Oddly enough, he was probably a better shooter than anyone SDSU had on the team this year.

Ended up playing overseas for quite a while.  Last played in 2021.

Of course he's Max Montana now...

[Banksyrules 4,603]

Do you think we need an official rose peddler ? I’m happy to contribute throwing rose peddles for incoming recruits touring the facilities and campus. 

[HoosierHoopster 6,871]

10 hours ago, lillurk said:

Not criticism but some things for everyone to keep in mind:

1. Someone posted the #s with walk-ons removed and it was about 20% of scholarship D1 players.

2. Some of those walk-ons will transfer down and get scholarships at lower levels, but the majority may just land…nowhere, at least on a scholarship. For example: I don’t know former IU walk-on Nate Childress but by all accounts he can really play, maybe he gets a master’s paid for and some cash in his pocket. But it’s also possible he just starts a career, or pursues more schooling without any basketball at all.

3. In fact some former scholarship athletes won’t get offers and will end up having made a bad call to leave a scholarship at their former school. That’s a shame. I don’t have the data but I recall there was some analysis last year for FB or BB that indicated a surprising # of players just don’t have a chair when the music stops. (FWIW I think this is probably not a new phenomenon but a new format in which it occurs; some of the Crean recruiting lowlights mentioned in this thread probably experienced a pre-portal version of this.)

4. National college student persistent rate at by institution is ~75%. I can think of reasons the athlete transfer rate would be different in EITHER direction so it’s possible the equilibrium ends up near the standard student rate when the dust settles. (That would INCLUDE students going pro or dropping out in non-persistence.)

All of this is exacerbated by COVID after-effects still for a few reasons:

5. We still have about two more years of student-athletes with extra years for playing during 2020-2021. There’s some roster crunch created by giving everyone an extra year. (IMHO the Pomeroy argument for giving everyone an extra year permanently is a good one, check it out.)

6. As we expected at the time, a couple years of recruiting, evaluating, and developing were impacted by COVID too, and so the school and player hit rate/fit were probably diminished. If so we might logically assume that would lead to marginally more transfers while some of it “shakes out.”

7. Stating the obvious but for revenue sports, the one-time free transfer is very new and so we’re still developing norms. I wouldn’t be shocked if schools, coaches, or even conferences develop reputations, in fact some already have: it’s hard for non-grad transfers to get into Michigan, On3 ran a whole article on how behind PSU was in NIL, Musselman/Arkansas and Underwood/Illinois have taken plenty, etc. This could also lead to fewer transfers in the future as students who want development pick a school/coach/conference that’s strong there, but another set of students go to the highest bidder out of HS, then some of them realize that was not an ideal choice and use the free transfers to land somewhere great at working with trs.

8. Finally, there’s probably an upper limit on the average annual % of players who transfer. The true number will ebb and flow once the extra COVID years evaporate, but if we assume most players now WON’T sit out and will only transfer once unless as grads, and many students will use one (free or grad) but not both. I’d guess we’re actually close to the upper limit now for all the reasons listed above and the % some years hence may be slightly lower many years.

Great breakdown

[hper50 1,186]

15 minutes ago, Banksyrules said:

Do you think we need an official rose peddler ? I’m happy to contribute throwing rose peddles for incoming recruits touring the facilities and campus. 

I can drive down from Indy and be there by noon for Ware and Ledlum's arrival!

[woodenshoemanHoosierfan 6,198]

Ended up playing overseas for quite a while.  Last played in 2021.
Of course he's Max Montana now...

Wasn't there a really dumb reason he changed his name or am I not remembering correctly.

Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk

[RaceToTheTop 25,166]

2 minutes ago, woodenshoemanHoosierfan said:

Wasn't there a really dumb reason he changed his name or am I not remembering correctly.

Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk
 

Montana was his middle name.  His parents immigrated and visited there and loved the state. 

[RaceToTheTop 25,166]

D.J. Davis, UC Irvine.  6'1" guard.   Bulk three point shooter. 15 points per game last season, shot 40% from three.

[Artie86 1,879]

12 minutes ago, hper50 said:

I can drive down from Indy and be there by noon for Ware and Ledlum's arrival!

you......lol

[Scotty R 2,127]

This is how I see the next two days playing out. All of us are going to be projecting lineups thinking all 3 of these guys will commit the next few days. Then two hours after the OV are over we all panic when no verbals are announced. 

 

 

[Hoosierfan1901 6,150]

4 minutes ago, Scotty R said:

This is how I see the next two days playing out. All of us are going to be projecting lineups thinking all 3 of these guys will commit the next few days. Then two hours after the OV are over we all panic when no verbals are announced. 

 

 

Likely scenario