IUBB Offseason Topic

[lillurk]

I tend to think this is a tournament-caliber team, as @Stromboli says, given the experience, depth, and pretty evenly distributed roster construction. (As an aside, I think we'll see some creative workarounds to the lack of a clear backup 5: against less threatening interiors, some combo of two or three of Morgan/Hartman/McSwain/Smith could provide serviceable spot minutes, and I like the possibility of Moore's skill and height challenging oafish bigs like Haas to defend him out to 24 feet to shoot or drive.)

In general I think IU's probably seen as roughly a bubble team at the moment: some reasons to believe, some reasons for concern. There aren't a ton of statistical models projecting the year publicly yet, but T-Rank is a decent-enough one and has IU in a mid-conference logjam just a couple games out of third. I don't think there's any adjustment for the coaching change there, though, so if IU's the team he projects on offense but a bit better on defense, they'd jump more comfortably into that Northwestern-Iowa-Minnesota Maryland tier, as all those teams' offensive projections are in the same ballpark as IU, with defenses a point or two better per 100 possessions.

If IU wins a couple or more of the four tough non-conference games (Seton Hall, Duke, Louisville, Notre Dame) without dropping any others, they'll be in a good place. My hunch is the most likely outcome is they win one of those and have lots of work to do in conference but once we see the team we'll know more.

There are some winnable road conference games on the schedule (Illinois, Ohio State, Rutgers, Nebraska, maybe more), so even if they drop a couple at home, if they otherwise hold serve they should be able to get to 18-12 (9-9) or 19-11 (10-8). I don't think the above is wildly optimistic but it isn't a shoo-in, either. Assuming you win a conference tournament game or two, that's probably good enough for an at-large bid.

The upside this year, theoretically, is in maintaining Crean-era offensive efficiency (roughly top 30 even in a less-than-great year) and adding an equivalently good defense. That's maybe a top 20 or 30 squad, so you're comfortably in the tourney. At that point things can break all sorts of ways.

[Stuhoo]

 

The toughest non-conference schedule in the B1G + Archie's first year as an attractive story line = us in the tourney with 19 wins.

 

[WayneFleekHoosier]

Our big 4 games. Tough. I think we are near underdogs in all 4.
Win probability IMO
@Seton Hall 35%
Neutral Notre Dame 50/50
@Louisville 5%
Duke 20%

I think we go 1-3. 2-2 would be gigantic in that stretch.





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[lillurk]

2 minutes ago, WayneFleekHoosier said:

Our big 4 games. Tough. I think we are near underdogs in all 4.
Win probability IMO
@Seton Hall 35%
Neutral Notre Dame 50/50
@Louisville 5%
Duke 20%

I think we go 1-3. 2-2 would be gigantic in that stretch.





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Agreed. Maybe Seton Hall or ND isn't as good as expected, maybe there's a little Assembly Hall magic there for Duke...but I think we should be ecstatic if we split 'em. Win two, don't drop a game you should win, 10-8 in conference, and you're 20-10 with some good wins. That puts you somewhere between a six seed and a nine most years, I think.

[Crimson and Cream]

3 hours ago, Stromboli said:

I was just putting some furniture together and thinking about this. Just why are we being predicted to miss the tournament? That makes no sense! This is a well built team! Our main concern is that we don't have a backup center! Most teams can't field one good center. We have plenty of height and big bodies to compete.

Good to see these tweets. I wonder sometimes if Archie doesn't get excited about what he's got brewing here.

Missed the tournament, lost 3 to NBA, and no high profile recruits result in low expectations as far as others around the country are concerned. Not to mention a new coach, which we know in reality is an upgrade but to the general eye is viewed as a big change to overcome.

[Str8Hoosiers]

On 9/2/2017 at 9:18 PM, Stuhoo said:

 

Yes! I'm thinking that it is very likely that we start three guards. Very likely. I also think that Hartman will play starters minutes as the sixth man.

 

To expand on this, which 3 guards? 

I agree Hartman will get a lot of minutes regardless if he starts or not.

I see Green starting at some point in the season if not the beginning.  RoJo i feel is better as a starter... I think Josh & Cujo off the bench for guards. 

[HoosierAloha]

Which 4 players are future NBAers? Moore, Davis, Smith, Morgan?

I'd like to be optimistic but there is a lot of work to do. I could see us squeaking in but not sure we'll be comfortable on selection Sunday. We'll need to go 10-2 or 9-3 at worst in the OOC schedule. We'll need to beat a good team or two at home in the conference too. It can be done but it'll be a challenge.

[Hoosierfan2017]

5 minutes ago, HoosierAloha said:

Which 4 players are future NBAers? Moore, Davis, Smith, Morgan?

[Brass Cannon]

This roster does not lack talent or experience. The question is ultimately can Archie take this group of Athletes that Crean assembled and make a team of basketball players. 

If he can we should be a tourney team no problem. 

[mdn82]

Oddly outside of 2011-2013 this is one of my favorite teams Crean assembled. I personally know people are low on us much like Cody's freshman year. I think this team has the potential to surprise teams and I feel they should. IMO this team is lacking a true PG, but has a PG in their coach that can get most out of that role. We are also lacking big depth. This is going to be a rotational team with depth in wings. I think we will be a tough out.


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[8bucks]

This roster does not lack talent or experience. The question is ultimately can Archie take this group of Athletes that Crean assembled and make a team of basketball players. 

If he can we should be a tourney team no problem. 

I agree. Where we lack 5 star talent we hopefully make up for it with senior 4 star talent. If Archie can get Creans guys to buy in then we can have a very good year

[Stuhoo]

Gonna be a lot of 8-12 win teams in the B1G this year. We will be one of em. If we're on the good side of that pack life will be lovely.

[Class of '66 Old Fart]

Another series of tweets from Nick Baumgart

IU had a TO rate of less than 18.6% once in CTC's tenure (17.2% in 14-15). IU turned it over 21.4% (21.3% B1G) last yr. Work cut out....

Talking turnovers. Archie Miller was 102-36 in the four seasons the Flyers' TO rate was 18.6% or less, just 37-27 in two seasons above....

Among IU returners:  Newkirk 23.8% TO rate / Johnson 20.7 / Hartman DNP / Morgan 17.2 / Davis 20.8 / Jones 20.2 / Green 28.8 / McSwain 26.3 / McRoberts 21.0

How could an improvement in TO rate from 21% to 18%?  Consider IU lost 16 gms last yr, 9 by single digits -- 7 by 5 or less, 13 by 12 or less

 

[Stromboli]

One of the reasons I'm not as high on Green as the rest of the fanbase seems to be.  Also why I think the best backcourt may be Johnson and Jones.

[Stuhoo]

1 minute ago, Stromboli said:

One of the reasons I'm not as high on Green as the rest of the fanbase seems to be.  Also why I think the best backcourt may be Johnson and Jones.

I'm with you.

 

[Trish]

Josh / Greene

RoJo / CuJo / Al

Smith / Freddie

Collin / Morgan

Davis / Moore

 

I think the biggest concern when looking at our team and even this projected depth chart above is our scoring ability. We saw how inconsistent Rojo was last year. If he can turn things around and be more consistent, that will help greatly. Of course, Justin Smith is a freshman so I'm not quite sure how well he'll be able to score off the bat. Collin can spread the floor and get some high IQ baskets down-low from smart plays (cutting, STS, etc). Davis in his brand new body will be exciting. This will be Archie's best big man he's ever had. Davis has shown the ability to score down-low. Now that we have a coach who knows basketball, we might actually get the ball to him down there (Crazy thought, I know). 

I really like Morgan coming off the bench. He brings some energy, toughness, and general basketball IQ. I'm not sold on his ability to stretch the floor like Collin, but he could provide some huge minutes for us. Collin starting is a must for me. Just a general leader who makes his teammates better imo. While he struggles on defense, his basketball IQ influences his teammates on the court. 

I'm hoping for big things from Cujo and Greene this year. Greene had some nifty passes out on the court last year which makes me believe he could slide into that role as a back-up PG to Josh Newkirk. Josh has shown the ability to defend and get to the basket. Now if he can add a more consistent shot while finishing around the rim, he could really flourish. He'll need to improve his basketball IQ however. He made some really questionable decisions last season running the PG spot. Having a natural PG as a head coach will help him I'm hoping.

Our new defense should be exciting. I've been reading up on the pack-line defense and I actually use some of it's elements in my personal basketball coaching philosophy. I think our defense will be improved but our offense is up in the air for me at this time. Nonetheless, I'm finally exciting about IU basketball again.

 

#TeamTank paid off last year boys!

[Brass Cannon]

3 hours ago, Class of '66 Old Fart said:

Another series of tweets from Nick Baumgart

IU had a TO rate of less than 18.6% once in CTC's tenure (17.2% in 14-15). IU turned it over 21.4% (21.3% B1G) last yr. Work cut out....

Talking turnovers. Archie Miller was 102-36 in the four seasons the Flyers' TO rate was 18.6% or less, just 37-27 in two seasons above....

Among IU returners:  Newkirk 23.8% TO rate / Johnson 20.7 / Hartman DNP / Morgan 17.2 / Davis 20.8 / Jones 20.2 / Green 28.8 / McSwain 26.3 / McRoberts 21.0

How could an improvement in TO rate from 21% to 18%?  Consider IU lost 16 gms last yr, 9 by single digits -- 7 by 5 or less, 13 by 12 or less

 

I'm not going to hold TOs against them from last year. They played in a system where TOs were expected. And hitting 3 shots was more likely to get you put on the bench than 3 straight turnovers. 

Gonna really mess with the outcomes. 

[Walking Boot of Doom]

32 minutes ago, Brass Cannon said:

I'm not going to hold TOs against them from last year. They played in a system where TOs were expected. And hitting 3 shots was more likely to get you put on the bench than 3 straight turnovers. 

Gonna really mess with the outcomes. 

While playing in a different system could help, the players still made decisions that lead to turnovers. I'm skeptical that we will see many sudden significant individual improvements, but I do expect Archie's teaching and system to lower the TO rate. 

[Brass Cannon]

2 minutes ago, Walking Boot of Doom said:

While playing in a different system could help, the players still made decisions that lead to turnovers. I'm skeptical that we will see many sudden significant individual improvements, but I do expect Archie's teaching and system to lower the TO rate. 

I think being held accountable for TOs will cause them to make fewer silly decisions that lead to the TOs. 

Their poor decisions were never corrected. Why wouldn't they do them again. 

[HoosierAloha]

Josh / Greene
RoJo / CuJo / Al
Smith / Freddie
Collin / Morgan
Davis / Moore
 
I think the biggest concern when looking at our team and even this projected depth chart above is our scoring ability. We saw how inconsistent Rojo was last year. If he can turn things around and be more consistent, that will help greatly. Of course, Justin Smith is a freshman so I'm not quite sure how well he'll be able to score off the bat. Collin can spread the floor and get some high IQ baskets down-low from smart plays (cutting, STS, etc). Davis in his brand new body will be exciting. This will be Archie's best big man he's ever had. Davis has shown the ability to score down-low. Now that we have a coach who knows basketball, we might actually get the ball to him down there (Crazy thought, I know). 
I really like Morgan coming off the bench. He brings some energy, toughness, and general basketball IQ. I'm not sold on his ability to stretch the floor like Collin, but he could provide some huge minutes for us. Collin starting is a must for me. Just a general leader who makes his teammates better imo. While he struggles on defense, his basketball IQ influences his teammates on the court. 
I'm hoping for big things from Cujo and Greene this year. Greene had some nifty passes out on the court last year which makes me believe he could slide into that role as a back-up PG to Josh Newkirk. Josh has shown the ability to defend and get to the basket. Now if he can add a more consistent shot while finishing around the rim, he could really flourish. He'll need to improve his basketball IQ however. He made some really questionable decisions last season running the PG spot. Having a natural PG as a head coach will help him I'm hoping.
Our new defense should be exciting. I've been reading up on the pack-line defense and I actually use some of it's elements in my personal basketball coaching philosophy. I think our defense will be improved but our offense is up in the air for me at this time. Nonetheless, I'm finally exciting about IU basketball again.
 
#TeamTank paid off last year boys!

I'm not sure about that depth chart. I'd probably have Hartman and Morgan starting. What's the upside of Morgan coming off the bench and Smith starting?

I'd go
Newkirk - Green
Johnson - Jones - Durham
Morgan - Smith
Hartman - Moore
Davis - McSwain

I don't know how much we'll see of McSwain. He has the strength to defend the post but not the height/length. I think we'll need a Morgan, Smith, or Moore at the PF spot when Davis gets rest. McSwain could body up on an opposing Big with those guys coming from the weak side or digging with a guard. I don't think Hartman at PF and McSwain at C would work.