College Football Thread

[RaceToTheTop 25,131]

AP Rankings out.  IU at 10 behind Tennessee and SMU.  Boise State at 11, Clemson at 12.

Nightmare scenario would be Clemson beating South Carolina and the committee thinking that SMU, MIami, and Clemson all deserve to be in over IU.

[RaceToTheTop 25,131]

41 minutes ago, RaceToTheTop said:

AP Rankings out.  IU at 10 behind Tennessee and SMU.  Boise State at 11, Clemson at 12.

Nightmare scenario would be Clemson beating South Carolina and the committee thinking that SMU, MIami, and Clemson all deserve to be in over IU.

FWIW, on NCAA.com they were projecting that Tennessee would be ranked 8th, IU 9th, Boise State 10th, SMU 11th and Clemson would be at 14.  I can not explain how in the hell SMU moved up to 9.

[rayl456 481]

Probably already posted, so apologies, but Tulsa fired Kevin Wilson today.  Not that anyone really cares…just fyi.   :)

[Alford Bailey 12,361]

5 hours ago, RaceToTheTop said:

I found where the '106th SOS' came from.  It was ESPN's FPI.  And AFTER the Ohio State game, IU's SOS jumped to #51 on it.  (FPI SOS stinks, FWIW -- IU did NOT have the 106th toughest schedule entering and there is no way SOS should jump 55 spots in week 13).

Also, FWIW, ESPN FPI projects IU with a 97.7% chance to make the playoffs (so basically, just need to beat Purdue).  

Percentage chance to make CFP:
Oregon 99.8%

Ohio State 99.5%

Penn State 98.9%

Texas 97.9%

Indiana 97.7%

Georgia 90.6%

Notre Dame 90.1%

MIami 79.6%

Tennessee 76.3%

Boise St 68%

SMU 62.5%

Alabama 37.4%

Iowa State 27.5%

Arizona State 25.9%

BYU 25.5%

Tulane 24.8%

Clemson 23.8%

South Carolina 23.1%

UNLV 15.9%
 

Army 12.6%

Colorado 6.7%

Texas A&M 6.3%

Ole Miss 6.2%

Everyone else is below 2%

Still giving Alabama a 37% chance lol!

[RaceToTheTop 25,131]

33 minutes ago, Alford Bailey said:

Still giving Alabama a 37% chance lol!

With the latest rankings, I have to say that IU's 98% is inflated given that the voters have SMU and Tennessee both above IU and moved Clemson all the way up to 12.  That doesn't necessarily mean that the CFP will have them in that order, 

My gut says is Indiana is going to be the 10 or 11 seed in the CFP release on Tuesday -- depending on what they do with SMU.  And you will need to keep in mind that the 12 seed will likely be Boise State, so that means the 11 seed is the last at large.  My fear is that Clemson beats South Carolina, Miami beats Syracuse, and SMU beats California and the committee decides that Miami and SMU (who play in the title game) would not be penalized for playing each other and they decide Clemson should leap frog Indiana because of their win over South Carolina.  IMO, that wouldn't be a just decision -- the ACC is weak and the three didn't play each other in the regular season, meaning the best in conference team any of them would have played is unranked Syracuse or Louisville.  But in my opinion, you can't put all three in because at best two of them would have two losses (including the title game loser) and none of their losses were to competition as good as Ohio State (and Clemson was dominated as badly as IU was against Georgia).

Lines of games with CFP significance this week (from Vegas Insider):
Tennessee 10.5 favorite at Vanderbilt

Ohio State 10 point favorite over Michigan

Clemson 4.5 favorite over South Carolina

Alabama 15 point favorite over Auburn

SMU 9 point favorite over California

Miami 10 point favorite at Syracuse

Texas 4 point favorite at Texas A&M

Oregon 18.5 favorite over Washington

Penn State 23.5 favorite over Maryland

Georgia 20.5 favorite over Georgia Tech

Indiana 28 point favorite over Purdue

Ole Miss 30 point favorite over Mississippi State

[hoopsta007 398]

So in everyone’s opinion, after the lack of class by OSU and their ilk (typical, I know), is it counterproductive to root for Michigan and then Oregon? Not sure that Penn St and IU can jump OSU so would that in turn hurt our chances?

[TheWatShot 13,726]

35 minutes ago, hoopsta007 said:

So in everyone’s opinion, after the lack of class by OSU and their ilk (typical, I know), is it counterproductive to root for Michigan and then Oregon? Not sure that Penn St and IU can jump OSU so would that in turn hurt our chances?

They could lose every remaining game by 50 for all I care. Screw those turds. 

[RaceToTheTop 25,131]

54 minutes ago, hoopsta007 said:

So in everyone’s opinion, after the lack of class by OSU and their ilk (typical, I know), is it counterproductive to root for Michigan and then Oregon? Not sure that Penn St and IU can jump OSU so would that in turn hurt our chances?

You could argue that Michigan beating Ohio State helps IU's case since IU beat Michigan.

In terms of Ohio State/Oregon.....if Michigan were to somehow beat Ohio State, then Penn State will be in the conference championship unless they were to lose to Maryland.  

[HoosierFan1994 4,729]

7 hours ago, RaceToTheTop said:

AP Rankings out.  IU at 10 behind Tennessee and SMU.  Boise State at 11, Clemson at 12.

Nightmare scenario would be Clemson beating South Carolina and the committee thinking that SMU, MIami, and Clemson all deserve to be in over IU.

I think it's crap that SMU is ahead of IU. I hope that isn't the case with the CFP committee. Right now, I think IU lands as the 10 seed and would play at...Notre Dame. 

I think the last spot could come down to this: ACC Championship game loser (Miami or SMU) against Clemson/South Carolina winner. I would side with SMU or Miami. 

[steubenhoosier 819]

4 minutes ago, HoosierFan1994 said:

I think it's crap that SMU is ahead of IU. I hope that isn't the case with the CFP committee. Right now, I think IU lands as the 10 seed and would play at...Notre Dame. 

I think the last spot could come down to this: ACC Championship game loser (Miami or SMU) against Clemson/South Carolina winner. I would side with SMU or Miami. 

S Carolina has already lost 3 games and barely beat Old Dominion. In what world are they even in the conversation?

[Demo 19,682]

16 minutes ago, steubenhoosier said:

S Carolina has already lost 3 games and barely beat Old Dominion. In what world are they even in the conversation?

I agree they shouldn’t be in, but they’ve got some good wins and they’ve played better as the year’s gone on. I wouldn’t want to play them. The freshman Sellers kid at QB is a load. The guy some Colts fans keep trying to tell me Richardson can be that kid looks to me like he might actually be. 

[go iu bb 5,579]

32 minutes ago, steubenhoosier said:

S Carolina has already lost 3 games and barely beat Old Dominion. In what world are they even in the conversation?

The world that can't believe IU could actually be good.

[RaceToTheTop 25,131]

1 hour ago, steubenhoosier said:

S Carolina has already lost 3 games and barely beat Old Dominion. In what world are they even in the conversation?

In one where there is potential chaos for the last position.  They aren’t getting in over IU, but if SMU or Miami lose their last regular season game and South Carolina bears Clemson, they are going to be in discussion for the last spot.

[RaceToTheTop 25,131]

1 hour ago, HoosierFan1994 said:

I think it's crap that SMU is ahead of IU. I hope that isn't the case with the CFP committee. Right now, I think IU lands as the 10 seed and would play at...Notre Dame. 

I think the last spot could come down to this: ACC Championship game loser (Miami or SMU) against Clemson/South Carolina winner. I would side with SMU or Miami. 

I am hoping that the CFP isn’t putting SMU ahead of IU….that wouldn’t sit right.  Just my opinion, I think IU will be sitting at the 10 spot in this week’s CFP.

[Hardwood83 4,762]

5 hours ago, Alford Bailey said:

Still giving Alabama a 37% chance lol!

That would be a travesty. I watched the OU game and Bama was thoroughly dominated, much worse than the score. Would love Auburn to pull off the upset though, just to put a stake in their heart. 

[HoosierFan1994 4,729]

1 hour ago, steubenhoosier said:

S Carolina has already lost 3 games and barely beat Old Dominion. In what world are they even in the conversation?

Don't disagree. If they beat Clemson, it could be between them and SMU or Miami. Again, I take the ACC Championship loser over them. But with all the craziness they are probably the first team out in this scenario. 

[JerryYeagley23 3,202]

2 hours ago, RaceToTheTop said:

I am hoping that the CFP isn’t putting SMU ahead of IU….that wouldn’t sit right.  Just my opinion, I think IU will be sitting at the 10 spot in this week’s CFP.

I’m having real trouble taking SMU seriously. They haven’t played Clemson, Miami or Georgia Tech - the 2nd/3rd/5th place teams in the conference. They lost to BYU, beat Duke by 1-point in overtime, and beat Nevada, who is dead last in the mountain west conference with an 0-6 conf record by 5 points on a TD pass with 1:18 left in the game. At some point who you play and the performance has to matter. It’s been held against IU all year and we were demolishing teams until our last two games. What makes SMU’s 10-1 record better than IU’s??

[IUHoosierJoe 1,111]

3 hours ago, JerryYeagley23 said:

I’m having real trouble taking SMU seriously. They haven’t played Clemson, Miami or Georgia Tech - the 2nd/3rd/5th place teams in the conference. They lost to BYU, beat Duke by 1-point in overtime, and beat Nevada, who is dead last in the mountain west conference with an 0-6 conf record by 5 points on a TD pass with 1:18 left in the game. At some point who you play and the performance has to matter. It’s been held against IU all year and we were demolishing teams until our last two games. What makes SMU’s 10-1 record better than IU’s??

Because SMU was a national power back in the 1980s, so they have to be better than IU now.

[hoosiersoxfan 225]

On DraftKings IU went from -450 to make the playoffs before the Ohio State game to -2000 by the end of the night

[HoosierFan1994 4,729]

Lot of people were comparing us to Michigan State a few years ago when they extended Mel Tucker and got beat by Ohio State. Went back and looked

1) Michigan State had already lost a game that year to Purdue. 

2) They lost 56-7 at Ohio State. They fell from 7th to 12th.

I will be extremely frustrated with the committee if Tennessee and SMU are ahead of Indiana. Lowest IU should be tomorrow is 8th. I don't think Georgia and Tennessee should be rewarded for their cupcake wins but there is an argument for Georgia to pass Indiana in the rankings. The committee put IU ahead of Tennessee after they beat Michigan. That same week Tennessee beat Mississippi State. Problem with being ranked 10th is that means you are the last "At-Large" team.