Bracketology and Team Resumes

[Hoosierfan1901]

20 minutes ago, BtownStrength said:

Definitely could happen. Most likely path would be in the 8/9 game if Iowa St gets the 1 seed. I'm mentally preparing for Greenville, SC (Duke region) or Philly (UConn region) but St Louis would be fantastic. 

Some brackets have 2 of the 10-7 matchups as part of the St Louis locations. I guess Illinois could get an #1 seed too, sure the NCAA would love a potential IU-UI matchup in the 2nd round. But it’s looking like Greenville as of now.

USA Today’s 2/10 bracket had us playing in St. Louis against Villanova in the 10-7 matchup.

[HoosierHoopster]

Call me crazy (fair lol) but if we do stay on course and get in, with the kind of solid, tenacious play they’ve shown over the past 6 games, this is the kind of team that can be dangerous and get hot in March — outside shooting, experienced, aggressive D, good point guard play, low TO team. If you’re on the other side of the bracket might have concerns seeing IU. 

[Brass Cannon]

1 hour ago, HoosierHoopster said:

Call me crazy (fair lol) but if we do stay on course and get in, with the kind of solid, tenacious play they’ve shown over the past 6 games, this is the kind of team that can be dangerous and get hot in March — outside shooting, experienced, aggressive D, good point guard play, low TO team. If you’re on the other side of the bracket might have concerns seeing IU. 

If we get the right seeding I could see a sweet sixteen.  And honestly Wilkerson is the kind of guy that gives us a chance in any game 

[IU Prof]

11 hours ago, Brass Cannon said:

If we get the right seeding I could see a sweet sixteen.  And honestly Wilkerson is the kind of guy that gives us a chance in any game 

My gut also tells me that Tucker is going to go on a heater late in the season...

[hoosiersoxfan]

25 minutes ago, IU Prof said:

My gut also tells me that Tucker is going to go on a heater late in the season...

Waiting for the game where Devries, Wilkerson, and Dorn all catch fire at the same time, hopefully in March.  

[Uspshoosier]

Wisky moved up 6 spots to 37 with that road win.  That’s a pretty big jump this late into the season.    This site today 

[Home Jersey]

[Home Jersey]

More stolen content from Reddit:

Based on simulations of the remaining season using KenPom-style efficiency ratings. Tie-breaking done using official B1G tie-breaking rules.

[TheWatShot]

I wish we were more comfortably in. Still hearing comments from old heads that we won't get in unless we win out because we have too many losses. 

[Golfman25]

15 minutes ago, TheWatShot said:

I wish we were more comfortably in. Still hearing comments from old heads that we won't get in unless we win out because we have too many losses. 

I am no bracketologist, nor did I sleep at a Holiday in, but I think we need to get to 20 wins.  So with 5 games left, 3-2 would put us at 11-9 in conference, and 20-11 overall.  Stealing one over Purdue or Mich State, would really set us up.  Otherwise, it could come down to beating OSU on the road.  

[Stuhoo]

6 minutes ago, Golfman25 said:

I am no bracketologist, nor did I sleep at a Holiday in, but I think we need to get to 20 wins.  So with 5 games left, 3-2 would put us at 11-9 in conference, and 20-11 overall.  Stealing one over Purdue or Mich State, would really set us up.  Otherwise, it could come down to beating OSU on the road.  

Agree, but not quite.

We will have a B1G tournament game, so to get to 20 wins we need to win three out of six.

[HoosierHoopster]

1 minute ago, Golfman25 said:

I am no bracketologist, nor did I sleep at a Holiday in, but I think we need to get to 20 wins.  So with 5 games left, 3-2 would put us at 11-9 in conference, and 20-11 overall.  Stealing one over Purdue or Mich State, would really set us up.  Otherwise, it could come down to beating OSU on the road.  

USPS has this stuff down much better than me, but imo it comes down to quality of the W's not 20 wins. If we lose to both MSU and PU, but beat OSU we'd be 11-9 in conf, that may be enough but not sure on quality of W's, might then be a bubble team. If we somehow were to lose to OSU (I don't think we will), I don't think 10-10 gets us in with that last loss. 

I posted earlier I wasn't optimistic on a 11-9 finish -- totally miscalculated then. Can't see us finishing worse than 11-9, that's with losses to PU and MSU, and I am cautiously optimistic that we'll beat MSU and end up 12-8 -- that should squarely get us in, imo.

[HoosierHoopster]

1 minute ago, Stuhoo said:

Agree, but not quite.

We will have a B1G tournament game, so to get to 20 wins we need to win three out of six.

Only quibble here is the NCAA committee sometimes seems to just disregard conf tourneys

[str8baller]

2 hours ago, Home Jersey said:

More stolen content from Reddit:

Based on simulations of the remaining season using KenPom-style efficiency ratings. Tie-breaking done using official B1G tie-breaking rules.

Sounds about right. Our Efficiency rankings have settled back into bubble team/11th-12th seed territory.  Obviously resume matters more at this point in the season but that is kind of what that chart is showing too. 
 

At the beginning of the year folks were talking about having a really good offense. I said if we could stay top 50 in defense along with a top 25 offense we’d be in really good shape. We have a barely top 50 defense, but unfortunately our offense has slipped to 38th.  
 

Gonna be a dog fight but I still think taking care of Minny/NW will be cutting it real close but gives us a 50/50 shot of getting in. Getting one more win gives us a pretty limp resume but seals the deal. 

[RaceToTheTop]

@Uspshoosier

If Miami (Ohio) were to finish the regular season undefeated but then lose in their conference tournament, do you believe the committee could still keep them out of the tournament?  

Hard to think that a one loss team could be left out, but they didn't do themselves any favors playing a non-conference schedule without any quad 1 or 2 games (their non-conference SOS is ranked 359th on Pom and that doesn't account for the fact that they played three non-conference games against teams below D1.

51st in NET, 84th in Pom (16 spots below Akron), 0-0 in quad 1, 1-0 in quad two. 

[RaceToTheTop]

8 hours ago, TheWatShot said:

I wish we were more comfortably in. Still hearing comments from old heads that we won't get in unless we win out because we have too many losses. 

Winning out would put IU at 22-9 and 13-7 in conference.  I don't know what old heads are saying that IU has to win out, but those old heads seem out of touch if they think it takes IU 22 wins at a minimum to get in.

[Uspshoosier]

8 hours ago, TheWatShot said:

I wish we were more comfortably in. Still hearing comments from old heads that we won't get in unless we win out because we have too many losses. 

Definitely don’t have to win out.  If won out they would be a 5 or 6 seed.   Just need to be 4 games over .500 

[Uspshoosier]

8 hours ago, HoosierHoopster said:

Only quibble here is the NCAA committee sometimes seems to just disregard conf tourneys

Anything after Friday it seems they don’t factor it but if it’s before that then they take it into account.  IU beat Michigan and Illinois in Woodys first year and needed both those games to get in.  IU was second to last team in that year.  If they wouldn’t have won those conference tourney games they would have been out. 

[RaceToTheTop]

13 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

Definitely don’t have to win out.  If won out they would be a 5 or 6 seed.   Just need to be 4 games over .500 

I assume by 4 over .500 you mean 4 more wins than a .500 record because 19-11 would be 8 games over .500, right?

I think being 19-11 puts it in the hands of the committee and bid stealers.  I'm hoping for at least 20-10 where even if you had UNC's AD making the field out, IU would be in.

EDIT:  IU plays 31 games, so the numbers above don't work in my post.

 

[Uspshoosier]

20 minutes ago, RaceToTheTop said:

@Uspshoosier

If Miami (Ohio) were to finish the regular season undefeated but then lose in their conference tournament, do you believe the committee could still keep them out of the tournament?  

Hard to think that a one loss team could be left out, but they didn't do themselves any favors playing a non-conference schedule without any quad 1 or 2 games (their non-conference SOS is ranked 359th on Pom and that doesn't account for the fact that they played three non-conference games against teams below D1.

51st in NET, 84th in Pom (16 spots below Akron), 0-0 in quad 1, 1-0 in quad two. 

If they go undefeated and lose to Akron in the conference tourney I think they leave them in and put them in the First 4.  I think they lose at Umass this week