Bracketology and Team Resumes

[AZ Hoosier]

2 hours ago, TheWatShot said:

Isn't 14 the only double digit seed Painter has never lost against? Could this be the year? Fingers crossed...

Per Google Gemini, yes. Maybe this is the year for a 14 seed to take them out. 
 

[Brass Cannon]

8 minutes ago, AZ Hoosier said:

Per Google Gemini, yes. Maybe this is the year for a 14 seed to take them out. 
 

Has he lost to a 10 seed.  If Purdue hits a rough stretch chance a 10 gets into the mix 

[LIHoosier]

4 minutes ago, Brass Cannon said:

Has he lost to a 10 seed.  If Purdue hits a rough stretch chance a 10 gets into the mix 

As a player in 1991 to Temple.

[Home Jersey]

 

[Uspshoosier]

 

[Stuhoo]

 

[HoosierHoopster]

^^^ To raise our collective blood pressure, we could have a countdown to selection Sunday post in this thread, lol.

As it stands now we're comfortably in by almost any measure, but still have lots of work to do and that position is by no means secure. 

USC is not a must-win game, but it's one of those few at least apparently 'winnable' road games left on the schedule. i say apparently bc USC isn't bad, it's a streaky team, and we're coming off a  big double OT win and that brings questions about whether they can stay fully 'up' for this game and whether there will be any carry-over fatigue (couple days' rest).

Hope they're full go and attacking with energy against USC, and then we have a bunch of meaningful February games - March is coming soon.

[Uspshoosier]

 

[Uspshoosier]

IU has a chance tonight to win its 3rd straight Q1 game and 2nd straight road win.  Playing in a tough conference can have a double edge sword.  There are no nights off so not many get right games and losses can snowball however if you can string together some wins it usually against tourney quality teams so you resume gets a huge boost.   Not many teams had a better week than IU.  2 Q1 wins with one being against a top 8 net team and a road win against a top 40 net team.  
 

The reason why IU shot up the projections was because there predictive metrics were already great since they took advantage of their non con Q4 games which started them out in a positive.  Their SOS is top 35.  All they were missing were the results against quality teams so their results based metrics were low.   That change last week and now those metrics are trending up.   Puzzle is still not complete with 9 or more pieces to go but last week was a big one for IU.    Big stretch coming up.  Fo me the Wisky game is the most important game left on the schedule.  Win that one and they are in very good shape. 
 

Losses stink but here are their losses according to the NET

3, 10, 11, 17, 19, 28 and 84 ( 5 of those away from home)  

 

 

[Uspshoosier]

20 hours ago, Uspshoosier said:

Fo me the Wisky game is the most important game left on the schedule.

Massive game for IU on Saturday.   IU got the split on the LA trip.  Now they have set themselves up to where if IU wins their remaining home games they will be in great shape and not need phase 3(conference tourney) to  build the resume.   Tourney quality team (lower seeded as of today)at home for a nice Q2 win.   Lose and the path becomes more difficult 

[Stuhoo]

2 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

Massive game for IU on Saturday.   IU got the split on the LA trip.  Now they have set themselves up to where if IU wins their remaining home games they will be in great shape and not need phase 3(conference tourney) to  build the resume.   Tourney quality team (lower seeded as of today)at home for a nice Q2 win.   Lose and the path becomes more difficult 

Beat Wisconsin and Oregon = playing with house money. 

Lose one of those and we've got work to do.

Lose them both? Ruh-roh.

[Golfman25]

On 2/3/2026 at 5:42 PM, Uspshoosier said:

IU has a chance tonight to win its 3rd straight Q1 game and 2nd straight road win.  Playing in a tough conference can have a double edge sword.  There are no nights off so not many get right games and losses can snowball however if you can string together some wins it usually against tourney quality teams so you resume gets a huge boost.   Not many teams had a better week than IU.  2 Q1 wins with one being against a top 8 net team and a road win against a top 40 net team.  
 

The reason why IU shot up the projections was because there predictive metrics were already great since they took advantage of their non con Q4 games which started them out in a positive.  Their SOS is top 35.  All they were missing were the results against quality teams so their results based metrics were low.   That change last week and now those metrics are trending up.   Puzzle is still not complete with 9 or more pieces to go but last week was a big one for IU.    Big stretch coming up.  Fo me the Wisky game is the most important game left on the schedule.  Win that one and they are in very good shape. 
 

Losses stink but here are their losses according to the NET

3, 10, 11, 17, 19, 28 and 84 ( 5 of those away from home)  

 

 

The problem with that is MSU.  Had they won last night, MSU would have been a gravy game.  Now it’s closer to a must win.  They may have to steal one on the road.  Probably comes down to OSU.  Nothing like living on the edge. :)

[Uspshoosier]

14 minutes ago, Golfman25 said:

The problem with that is MSU

MSU is beatable.   They needed OT to win at Rutgers and they are down at Minny tonight.   If it was a road game at MSU I would agree with you however IU playing MSU at home is a very winnable game 

[Golfman25]

1 hour ago, Uspshoosier said:

MSU is beatable.   They needed OT to win at Rutgers and they are down at Minny tonight.   If it was a road game at MSU I would agree with you however IU playing MSU at home is a very winnable game 

So was Iowa.  :)   

[Uspshoosier]

1 minute ago, Golfman25 said:

So was Iowa.  :)   

Yeah.  You win some and you lose some. It’s college basketball 

[Golfman25]

15 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

Yeah.  You win some and you lose some. It’s college basketball 

Yeah, I know.  That's what we have become.  No automatic wins.  No guaranteed tournament bids.  Everything is living on the edge.  It is what it is.  :)  

[HoosierHoopster]

1 hour ago, Golfman25 said:

So was Iowa.  :)   

They’re playing a lot better over this past 4 games. Won’t know until the game is played but looking back at Iowa doesn’t really say anything at this point 

[Uspshoosier]

Minny moved to 72 in the NET meaning all of IUs losses as of today are Q1 games.  ( 5 Q1A and 3 Q1b), 5 of those on road, 1 neutral and 2 home games.  
IU does have 2Q1A wins as well.  

[TheWatShot]

31 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

Minny moved to 72 in the NET meaning all of IUs losses as of today are Q1 games.  ( 5 Q1A and 3 Q1b), 5 of those on road, 1 neutral and 2 home games.  
IU does have 2Q1A wins as well.  

The old heads will never grasp this stuff and I'm here for it. Actually heard one complaining the other day that the Minnesota loss was unacceptable and will keep us out of the tournament if we don't get to 20 wins. 

 

I am a little curious how Minnesota moves up 12 spots after beating MSU but we only moved up 2 spots after beating Purdue. 

[Uspshoosier]

Just now, TheWatShot said:

Actually heard one complaining the other day that the Minnesota loss was unacceptable and will keep us out of the tournament if we don't get to 20 wins. 

Yeah that win won’t keep them out.  The bigger issue of keeping them out would be their inability to win home games against tourney quality teams.   Massive game on Saturday and then need to hold serve at home against Oregon, Northwestern and Minny.   Minny moving up also means that our home game against them will be a Q2 game if their NET stays where it’s at now.   Lots of moving parts still heading into the end of the season