Bracketology and Team Resumes

[RaceToTheTop]

46 minutes ago, Hoosier987 said:

Looks like big gains on net rankings come from double digit wins on the road. Opportunity awaits Saturday but Michigan is borderline Quad 1 or 2 game. They’re number 70 in Net.

A win over Michigan probably bumps them down to a quad 2, a loss keeps them a quad 1.

[realTomCrean]

8 minutes ago, RaceToTheTop said:

That's actually the life of a husband arguing with his wife.

^^ Sage wisdom for the young and unmarried posters on this site

[Uspshoosier]

33 minutes ago, RaceToTheTop said:

A win over Michigan probably bumps them down to a quad 2, a loss keeps them a quad 1.

My guess is Michigan wouldn’t move down much if they lost at home to IU (20 NET).   There is big movement when you lose to teams that you should beat at home.   IU’s biggest decline came when they lost at home to Northwestern. As long as it was a close loss I think they would stay the same.   Losing tonight to Nebraska would cause them to drop.   Either way I fully expect Michigan to be well within the top 75 at the end of the year.  I personally think they get back in the tournament discussion in the next couple weeks 

[Hovadipo]

http://bball.notnothing.net/big10.php?sport=mbb

 

I love this freakin' site. Every year. 

[BGVille Hoosierfan]

I always thought 18 wins would get us in for sure but 17 may just do it. Michigan went 17-14 last year and made it in safely last year. Our metrics are great and we won’t move much the rest of the year given the remaining games are all Q1/2 games.

[RaceToTheTop]

3 hours ago, Uspshoosier said:

My guess is Michigan wouldn’t move down much if they lost at home to IU (20 NET).   There is big movement when you lose to teams that you should beat at home.   IU’s biggest decline came when they lost at home to Northwestern. As long as it was a close loss I think they would stay the same.   Losing tonight to Nebraska would cause them to drop.   Either way I fully expect Michigan to be well within the top 75 at the end of the year.  I personally think they get back in the tournament discussion in the next couple weeks 

Think they are right in the discussion if they win their next two games -- home against Nebraska and Indiana.  Killer stretch at the end at the end, though -- four of six on the road (Wisconsin, Rutgers, Illinois, Indiana) and the two at home are Wisky and Michigan State.  I believe you've preached the magic 4 over .500 being the typical breaking point and if they aren't at four over .500 by the end of the regular season, they'd have to win two in the BTT to get there.  So I would think that really need to go 5-3 in the final stretch of the regular season.  They would be 17-14 if they go 4-4 and 18-15 even if they win their first BTT game and lose the next.

Four of the final six against Wisconsin and Indiana.  Probably need to win three of those.

[Uspshoosier]

37 minutes ago, RaceToTheTop said:

Think they are right in the discussion if they win their next two games -- home against Nebraska and Indiana.  Killer stretch at the end at the end, though -- four of six on the road (Wisconsin, Rutgers, Illinois, Indiana) and the two at home are Wisky and Michigan State.  I believe you've preached the magic 4 over .500 being the typical breaking point and if they aren't at four over .500 by the end of the regular season, they'd have to win two in the BTT to get there.  So I would think that really need to go 5-3 in the final stretch of the regular season.  They would be 17-14 if they go 4-4 and 18-15 even if they win their first BTT game and lose the next.

Four of the final six against Wisconsin and Indiana.  Probably need to win three of those.

History tells you a team better be 4 games or more or you are not getting in.   Their are some exceptions to the rule like Michigan last year 

 

[Uspshoosier]

2 hours ago, BGVille Hoosierfan said:

I always thought 18 wins would get us in for sure but 17 may just do it. Michigan went 17-14 last year and made it in safely last year. Our metrics are great and we won’t move much the rest of the year given the remaining games are all Q1/2 games.

I wouldn’t recommend losing out to test it but I would be confident in saying that they would be in the last four in or first 4 out if they didn’t win another game.  Problem with that is that they would have to rely on teams not stealing bids.    One more win and I would have to see what happens around them but I would feel confident locking them in with a little wiggle room but 17 wins for me doesn’t lock them in for me.   19 wins and they are a stone cold lead pipe lock for me 

[Class of '66 Old Fart]

In USPS we trust.  

[RaceToTheTop]

Updated and reconciled WAR ratings through yesterday's games (for those of you not tired of me talking about them).  Cut off point for an at large bid is currently at 47.

Big Ten:

• Purdue #1
• Indiana #22
• Michigan State #28
• Illinois #35
• Maryland #38
• Rutgers #40
• Iowa #41
• Northwestern #43

also considered:

• Wisconsin #49
• Penn State #60

Michigan still at a negative WAR value (-0.64).  Home wins in their next two games (Nebraska, Indiana) would them on the positive side and the 'also considered' group.

 

 

[RaceToTheTop]

@Uspshoosier

thoughts on at large status of Utah State, Nevada, San Diego State, New Mexico and Boise State if they don't get the auto bid?

While my numbers have the pecking order as San Diego St, Nevada, Utah St, New Mexico, then Boise St, I'm not very confident on that order (FWIW, my numbers love the MWC and have all five in).  Utah State I am sure is last in the pecking order because of no quad 1 wins.  Nevada IMO is a near lock because of the Q1/2 wins and road wins, but I keep seeing them in brackets slightly below New Mexico and Boise State.  Regardless of what my numbers say, I think the pecking order is San Diego St, Nevada, New Mexico, Boise State, and then Utah State.

[Uspshoosier]

22 minutes ago, RaceToTheTop said:

@Uspshoosier

thoughts on at large status of Utah State, Nevada, San Diego State, New Mexico and Boise State if they don't get the auto bid?

While my numbers have the pecking order as San Diego St, Nevada, Utah St, New Mexico, then Boise St, I'm not very confident on that order (FWIW, my numbers love the MWC and have all five in).  Utah State I am sure is last in the pecking order because of no quad 1 wins.  Nevada IMO is a near lock because of the Q1/2 wins and road wins, but I keep seeing them in brackets slightly below New Mexico and Boise State.  Regardless of what my numbers say, I think the pecking order is San Diego St, Nevada, New Mexico, Boise State, and then Utah State.

About the same as last time we talked about them.    San Diego St (7-8 seed )

Boise St 9 or 10 seed,  Nevada and New Mexico not far behind them in the  Last 4 in  to First 4 byes range      Utah St with lots of work to do       San Diego St is the safest out of the bunch     Other 3 are bubbly 

 

[Uspshoosier]

20 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

About the same as last time we talked about them.    San Diego St (7-8 seed )

Boise St 9 or 10 seed,  Nevada and New Mexico not far behind them in the  Last 4 in  to First 4 byes range      Utah St with lots of work to do       San Diego St is the safest out of the bunch     Other 3 are bubbly 

 

Probably can make an argument that Nevada should be in front of Boise St but I would have to look at it deeper 

[Uspshoosier]

Shouldn’t be long before committee will do their top 16 show.   That will give us a road map on what this selection committee is valuing more 

[NashvilleHoosier]

Wisconsin's win last night moves them back into a Q2 win for us, so as of this moment we have a 8-7 combined Q1/Q2 record. Anybody know if we've ever had an over .500 Q1/Q2 record this late in the season in the NET era?

[Uspshoosier]

23 minutes ago, NashvilleHoosier said:

Wisconsin's win last night moves them back into a Q2 win for us, so as of this moment we have a 8-7 combined Q1/Q2 record. Anybody know if we've ever had an over .500 Q1/Q2 record this late in the season in the NET era?

Probably not or if they did they lost a bunch in a row to move it down.   The 2 years IU made the tourney(covid year I’m counting as they would have made it) they were 9-12 in the top 2 Quads in 2020 before the B1G tourney shut down and last year they were 8-12 in the top 2 Quads entering selection Sunday 

[str8baller]

Lunardi has us at 16 

[Scotty R]

19 hours ago, str8baller said:

Lunardi has us at 16 

Wonder why in his updated  bracket he has us as a 5 seed

[Uspshoosier]

47 minutes ago, Scotty R said:

Wonder why in his updated  bracket he has us as a 5 seed

Because he moved the Zags ahead of them after last nights game 

[Loaded Chicken Sandwich]

On 2/9/2023 at 9:38 AM, Uspshoosier said:

About the same as last time we talked about them.    San Diego St (7-8 seed )

Boise St 9 or 10 seed,  Nevada and New Mexico not far behind them in the  Last 4 in  to First 4 byes range      Utah St with lots of work to do       San Diego St is the safest out of the bunch     Other 3 are bubbly 

 

I guess I don't get the love for San Diego State. But I guess I'd need to see al their numbers. New Mexico probably has the best win out of any of them over Saint Mary's on the road(?).