Bracketology and Team Resumes

[IUHoosierJoe 2,153]

9 minutes ago, TheWatShot said:

I can't get over how bad our NET ranking is. Was it this bad after we had the home losses to IPFW and Indiana State? (I think that was the first year they were used)

 

 

I don’t think it was being used yet then, but it certainly would have been just as bad or worse at this point in the season.  The thing killing our NET right now is the close games we played against horrible teams.  If we can win these next 3 games by a big margin, it will help significantly.

[Uspshoosier 54,428]

When I say I’m not worried about IUs NET number being 110 this is what I mean.   After these 2 non conference games IU only has 3 games where they play a team with a worst NET then them.   Penn St, @Penn st and @Maryland.   The rest of the games will be against teams with better NETs.   That mean every win will give them a chance to move up.   If they don’t win any of those games then they weren’t getting in anyway.   As I’ve said before all this team has shown is that they can’t beat protected seeded teams (Average loss is 12 NET) and winning close games against non tourney teams so far ( average win 186).   Wont fully know if this team is a tournament quality team until they play some 5-12 seed quality  teams and that won’t happen until the B1G.    January is a huge opportunity for IU 

[Stuhoo 89,543]

3 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

When I say I’m not worried about IUs NET number being 110 this is what I mean.   After these 2 non conference games IU only has 3 games where they play a team with a worst NET then them.   Penn St, @Penn st and @Maryland.   The rest of the games will be against teams with better NETs.   That mean every win will give them a chance to move up.   If they don’t any of those games then they weren’t getting in anyway.   As I’ve said before all this team has shown is that they can’t beat protected seeded teams (Average loss is 12 NET) and winning close games against non tourney teams so far ( average win 186).   Wont fully know if this team is a tournament quality team until they play some 5-12 seed quality  teams and that won’t happen until the B1G.    January is a huge opportunity for IU 

+1

The team is 2-0 in the B1G.

• Win 10 of the remaining 18 B1G games, almost all of which will be against top 100 opponents, get to 20-11 overall before the B1G tourney, and we're very likely already a tournament team. 
• Go 9-9 for the rest of the B1G schedule and we may need a B1G tourney win or two. 
• Go 11-7 over the rest of the B1G and we're looking at a decent tourney seed again.

[IU_FanClub 1,857]

We absolutely need to be appealing that Harvard game BS. As of now it would be a Q2 win and at least a shot of being Q2 at the end of the year with them possibly being top 100 as a neutral game. There is zero chance they get into the top 50 to make it a Q2 home game however.

[Uspshoosier 54,428]

26 minutes ago, IU_FanClub said:

We absolutely need to be appealing that Harvard game BS. As of now it would be a Q2 win and at least a shot of being Q2 at the end of the year with them possibly being top 100 as a neutral game. There is zero chance they get into the top 50 to make it a Q2 home game however.

Only chance they would have to get into the top 50 is sweeping Princeton which sits at 14 in the NET.  

[Uspshoosier 54,428]

Even with a down B1G as of today IU has 8 Q1 chances left and 6 Q2 chances left.  Things will change but just giving you guys the lay of the land.  14 Q1 and Q2 opportunities.   Win enough of those games and IUs NET 115 will become respectable.   Don’t slip up in these next 2 and IU will have plenty of chances to build a tourney resume 

[HoosierHoopster 8,317]

1 hour ago, Uspshoosier said:

Even with a down B1G as of today IU has 8 Q1 chances left and 6 Q2 chances left.  Things will change but just giving you guys the lay of the land.  14 Q1 and Q2 opportunities.   Win enough of those games and IUs NET 115 will become respectable.   Don’t slip up in these next 2 and IU will have plenty of chances to build a tourney resume 

As they say, just win. 

The current games matter, but the angst over them is exaggerated, imo. Get through the next couple, get X back, go win some games, the rest will follow.

[Stuhoo 89,543]

Win 20.

The quality of wins will take care of itself if we do so.

[Uspshoosier 54,428]

What does a 17 point win over N Alabama get you?  +17 in the NET.   115 to 98

[Uspshoosier 54,428]

20 hours ago, IU_FanClub said:

We absolutely need to be appealing that Harvard game BS. As of now it would be a Q2 win and at least a shot of being Q2 at the end of the year with them possibly being top 100 as a neutral game. There is zero chance they get into the top 50 to make it a Q2 home game however.

Harvard dropped 20 spots to 124 after their close win over Holy Cross.    If the game is going to count as a home game all Harvard has to do is get to 75 NET to make that game a Q2 home game 

[IU_FanClub 1,857]

37 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

Harvard dropped 20 spots to 124 after their close win over Holy Cross.    If the game is going to count as a home game all Harvard has to do is get to 75 NET to make that game a Q2 home game 

Well it is probably moot now that Malik Mack is out indefinitely with mono

[Uspshoosier 54,428]

12 minutes ago, IU_FanClub said:

Well it is probably moot now that Malik Mack is out indefinitely with mono

Maybe but there are enough teams in the Ivy League that could give them a bump I think they could still get there.   Just got to keep winning until he gets back.   I said they lost close but they actually won that game by 2 with 2FTs with 3 sec to go 

[go iu bb 9,613]

40 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

Harvard dropped 20 spots to 124 after their close win over Holy Cross.    If the game is going to count as a home game all Harvard has to do is get to 75 NET to make that game a Q2 home game 

There is something seriously wrong with that formula if a win can drop you 20 spots 1/3 of the way through the season.

[Uspshoosier 54,428]

6 minutes ago, go iu bb said:

There is something seriously wrong with that formula if a win can drop you 20 spots 1/3 of the way through the season.

Dropped a ton in KenPom as well.   You get a 2 pt home win over a bottom 353 team your going to drop 

[IUHoosierJoe 2,153]

38 minutes ago, go iu bb said:

There is something seriously wrong with that formula if a win can drop you 20 spots 1/3 of the way through the season.

The NET is not a result-based metric; it’s a predictive metric (mostly).  If you beat poor teams by just a couple points (as IU has also done), you’re not expected to do as well in future games.

[Uspshoosier 54,428]

Missed opportunity for a road win against a tournament quality team.   Worst loss of the year but still a Q1 loss.   This loss doesn’t hurt IU at all on their resume.   Problem is while it doesn’t hurt it you missed a chance to bolster it.   IU has played enough games for me to say they will be a borderline bubble team for the rest of the year.    Too many flaws throughout the roster to truly make a run at the B1G title.    Good news for IU is they will have plenty more opportunities to change that narrative but the bad news is the margin of error is razor thin.    The games at home against tournament quality teams and even the bottom feeders become the most important games moving forward with the road games against the bottom of the B1G being a close second.    Road games against tournament quality teams and the home games against the upper B1G are bonus games.    Not what people wanted but with the roster that the staff decided to go into the season with and the production lost from lost year not really surprising.   There is still a path to the tourney just not the path people on here wanted 

[str8baller 7,501]

9 hours ago, Uspshoosier said:

The games at home against tournament quality teams and even the bottom feeders become the most important games moving forward with the road games against the bottom of the B1G being a close second. 

Basically, have to hold serve at home and win one on the road. Any “good loss” at home can be offset by a road win against a bottom dweller, in terms of NET, correct?

[Stuhoo 89,543]

We would be fine if we can fix what's broken. And our guard play is currently broken. 

For me it's not super-complicated:

• Win ten B1G games and we'll be in the NCAA tournament. The quality wins will be a foregone conclusion if we did that.
• It's currently hard to imagine that the team we've seen recently will do that.
• But we're 2-1 in conference with a road win, so there's a clear path to winning ten in conference. 
• It's a long season; when things go well there are stretches that appear hopeless but are not.
• However, when things end badly there are 'canary in the coalmine' games like this one, Army, and Morehead.

[AZ Hoosier 10,901]

27 minutes ago, Stuhoo said:

We would be fine if we can fix what's broken. And our guard play is currently broken. 

The issue is that Woody doesn't have the pieces to fix the guard play. 

[Uspshoosier 54,428]

2 hours ago, str8baller said:

Basically, have to hold serve at home and win one on the road. Any “good loss” at home can be offset by a road win against a bottom dweller, in terms of NET, correct?

In a way.   Basically IUs NET is so bad any road win is going to result in a positive gain.  IU is 108 and only have 2 games left against teams with NET lower than them.   @Penn St and @Maryland and those games are still Q2 games.    Right now IU is a bad loss for teams if they lose to them at Home.  If IU would have won last night that would have been a Q3 loss for Nebraska.  IU just needs to stack wins in the Q2 area of things.  They need to be near perfect against the middle of the pack and then need to win every game against the bottom and if they can win some home games against the top that will help them out significantly.   They have a path to the tourney but not much wiggle room.   Teams at the bottom of the cut line are all flawed teams in their own right.   Plenty of time to turn it around but in my opinion it’s going to be tough. Too many holes in the roster to be consistent enough to stack wins against tournament quality teams