Bracketology and Team Resumes

[Brass Cannon]

13 minutes ago, RaceToTheTop said:

Joe Lunardi had IU as a 9 seed BEFORE the Wisky game....FWIW.

Good sign. Wanna get 4 of the next 7 then at least one in the BTT to remove all doubt 

[Uspshoosier]

About the 1:12 mark the talk about the IU game 

[Uspshoosier]

Where things stand with a month left in the regular season 

IU has put themselves in position to where if they win their home games they should be comfortable in the tourney.  If they start losing home games then they will have to make it up on the road games where 2 of them are top of the bracket road games and the other is at a bubble team.  They always have the conference tourney to build their resume if things fall through in this last month.   I’ve seen teams completely fall apart in the last month and fall out of the bracket completely and I’ve seen teams solidify and improve  their seeding in the last month.   Not sure what IU will do but the schedule suggests they will have a shot to solidly their seeding and have bonus road games to sky rocket up the seed line if they win any of those games 

18-6 (7-6)

NET-33

Sos-33

Non con-212

Results based metrics 

WAB-40

KPI-53

SOR- 41

Predictive metrics 

Ken Pom- 35 

Torvik-25

BPI- 29

Q1a(2-7) Q1b(0-3)

Q2a(2-0) Q1b(0-0)

Q3(5-0)

Q4 (7-0)

IU has 8 losses which are all in the Q1 area 

breaking it down further 

5 losses are Q1a( 4 away from home )

3 losses are Q1b(2 away from home )

IU has an sos of 33 with 2 away games left against the top 10 in NET and another road game against a top 37 team  with another home game against a top 12 team.   How much higher will their SOS jump up with those 4 games?  They possibly could have a top 10 SOS when it’s all said and done.   
 

Is IUs roster perfect? No it has some flaws and room for improvement next year.   
 

if IU makes the tourney while playing a potentially top 10 SOS with this roster that would be a heck of a start for this staffs time at IU.  I think everyone knew after the first couple games that the roster had some limitations that would hold them back from being able to compete with the top teams in the nation.  As of today 8 of IUs 20 conference games will come against top 18 in the NET.   Buckle up for the last month.   

[Pagoda]

FWIW prediction (betting) markets have us at a ~85% chance to make it.  Feels high, but that’s what it is.

That sort of signals 10-10 is probably enough. 

Though of course getting in with ease should be the goal.  Long way to go.

[Stuhoo]

10 minutes ago, Pagoda said:

FWIW prediction (betting) markets have us at a ~85% chance to make it.  Feels high, but that’s what it is.

That sort of signals 10-10 is probably enough. 

Though of course getting in with ease should be the goal.  Long way to go.

I would assume those odds incorporate the more than 50/50 likelihood that we dump one of the three games we’ll be favored in, and win one of the four games when we’re the underdog.

That would give us a better resume.

[Pagoda]

5 minutes ago, Stuhoo said:

I would assume those odds incorporate the more than 50/50 likelihood that we dump one of the three games we’ll be favored in, and win one of the four games when we’re the underdog.

That would give us a better resume.

I’d guess that’s right, though I am a square that’s for sure.

Even if we screw up one of our three easier home games an MSU or OSU win can cover that up.  Or even a BTT run I suppose.  Several combos can work and that probably pushes up the odds to get in.

[Shooter]

52 minutes ago, Stuhoo said:

I would assume those odds incorporate the more than 50/50 likelihood that we dump one of the three games we’ll be favored in, and win one of the four games when we’re the underdog.

That would give us a better resume.

Yea, I'll be a bit worried if we get to 10-10 by just holding serve on the easier games. That'd leave us 2-12 in Quad 1, which will be an easy talking point against us.

Per Kenpom:

- Chances that we win all three easier home games: 53%

- Chances that we win at least one of the other four games: 75%

[str8baller]

2 hours ago, Pagoda said:

FWIW prediction (betting) markets have us at a ~85% chance to make it.  Feels high, but that’s what it is.

That sort of signals 10-10 is probably enough. 

Though of course getting in with ease should be the goal.  Long way to go.

That’s about what ESPN/Lunardis model has too according to the article I read. 

[Uspshoosier]

IU will have a Q2 loss again when Minny falls to a Q2 game 

[IU Prof]

8 hours ago, Shooter said:

Yea, I'll be a bit worried if we get to 10-10 by just holding serve on the easier games. That'd leave us 2-12 in Quad 1, which will be an easy talking point against us.

Per Kenpom:

- Chances that we win all three easier home games: 53%

- Chances that we win at least one of the other four games: 75%

I'd flip those odds, personally.

[Class of '66 Old Fart]