Season Predictions 2019-2020

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59 minutes ago, Stuhoo said:

 

You think that a team that is projected to finish 8th-11th in their conference will be favored in a quasi-road game against UConn? 

11-2 would be unequivocally excellent.

 

Yeah, cause that’s where UConn would be picked to finish in the BIG as well 

But I could see the game being basically a pick em 

 

[mdn82]

No one "expects" IU to be undefeated. But our non-conference schedule is quite easy compared to last year when we won games against the likes of Louisville, Butler, and Marquette. It is the conference schedule this year that is the tougher of the two. And if IU can't do well in the non-conference schedule, the likelihood that we will suddenly make it up during conference play is not great. Losses against non-conference teams will be an indicator of what kind of year we will have.

Actually if you use Torvik last year we had a predicted non con SOS of 164. This year we have 153. Not much difference at all. This year is actually tougher due to it being deeper. When we played the teams last year the teams you spoke of only Marquette was ranked. Coming in at 24 which Notre Dame will be slightly higher. The only thing really missing this year is a Duke pummeling us by 100 from our schedule. The other high end non con are actually comparable if not better and the lower games are better this year.


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[mdn82]

I have us at 18 wins, 20 if things go very well. 

Ditto. 9 wins non con. 9 wins in conference. 1 BTT win is where it ends for me. No tournament wins.


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[Honkyman]

My initial comment was we should know soon enough whether this team will improve over last year's disappointing season by our performance during non-conference games. Suffice it to say the non-conference schedule is easier than the conference schedule irrespective of whether the non-conference schedule is slightly more difficult than last year. If IU struggles during the non-conference schedule, we are not likely to do well in the conference schedule. My point is simply that underachieving against non-conference competition will likely be followed by a mediocre conference record. Hopefully, that will not be the case.

[Walking Boot of Doom]

My initial comment was we should know soon enough whether this team will improve over last year's disappointing season by our performance during non-conference games. Suffice it to say the non-conference schedule is easier than the conference schedule irrespective of whether the non-conference schedule is slightly more difficult than last year. If IU struggles during the non-conference schedule, we are not likely to do well in the conference schedule. My point is simply that underachieving against non-conference competition will likely be followed by a mediocre conference record. Hopefully, that will not be the case.

But that completely ignores improvements made as the season progresses


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[WayneFleekHoosier]

Ditto. 9 wins non con. 9 wins in conference. 1 BTT win is where it ends for me. No tournament wins.


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Fair. If it goes that way I’m admittedly going to lose my patience. We were given promises of competing for B1G championships and national championships. Our recruiting efforts are cool and interesting but on a national scale they aren’t entirely impressive. It may be exactly what we need. I hope it is.

If not, when do we expect things to actually change? Serious question.

Indiana should be a preseason top 25 team every season and finish at or near top 25 every season. That’s my expectations.


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[mdn82]

Fair. If it goes that way I’m admittedly going to lose my patience. We were given promises of competing for B1G championships and national championships. Our recruiting efforts are cool and interesting but on a national scale they aren’t entirely impressive. It may be exactly what we need. I hope it is.

If not, when do we expect things to actually change? Serious question.

Indiana should be a preseason top 25 team every season and finish at or near top 25 every season. That’s my expectations.


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It’s a good question and I don’t know. I think we make the tournament with no wins so I should have worded that better. I think we come in the 8-10 range. To me that’s improvement but I can understand that frustration for sure if it ended that way.


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[HoosierAloha]

Fair. If it goes that way I’m admittedly going to lose my patience. We were given promises of competing for B1G championships and national championships. Our recruiting efforts are cool and interesting but on a national scale they aren’t entirely impressive. It may be exactly what we need. I hope it is.

If not, when do we expect things to actually change? Serious question.

Indiana should be a preseason top 25 team every season and finish at or near top 25 every season. That’s my expectations.


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Well..

This topic can be, and has been, debated ad nauseam. In today’s college game there are two ways to success. The ,not so cheap, and easy way or “in it for the long haul” method. I don’t believe Archie has been given the go ahead for the former so hopefully he can succeed at the latter. I believe that’s why we’re seeing him go after the players he’s going after. I see him really trying to keep players for as long as possible.

As for a date to when things will change? I’m guessing we struggle a bit this season and the natives get extremely restless. He’ll, the pitchforks might even come out in full force. We’ll be on the bubble and many will find enough reason to give up. However, I see next season as the season things “click” with an experienced team and we make noise. We’ll be in the top 25 most of the season with an older team that’ll return a ton of talent. From there, I think we’ll be old and talented for quite some time and people will be happy we stuck with Archie.

Just my 2 cents though.


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[woodenshoemanHoosierfan]

Well..

This topic can be, and has been, debated ad nauseam. In today’s college game there are two ways to success. The ,not so cheap, and easy way or “in it for the long haul” method. I don’t believe Archie has been given the go ahead for the former so hopefully he can succeed at the latter. I believe that’s why we’re seeing him go after the players he’s going after. I see him really trying to keep players for as long as possible.

As for a date to when things will change? I’m guessing we struggle a bit this season and the natives get extremely restless. He’ll, the pitchforks might even come out in full force. We’ll be on the bubble and many will find enough reason to give up. However, I see next season as the season things “click” with an experienced team and we make noise. We’ll be in the top 25 most of the season with an older team that’ll return a ton of talent. From there, I think we’ll be old and talented for quite some time and people will be happy we stuck with Archie.

Just my 2 cents though.


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Good post. But I do feel if the injury bug stays away, especially with RP,we won't be a bubble team. Lose 2 at the most in non conference and no more than 8 in Conference.

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[Josh]

On 7/26/2019 at 9:38 AM, Stromboli said:

 

1.  Overall record, B1G record, post-season results, if any (Edit: I went with 30 total games just based on what has been announced, Stuhoo points out we had 35 last year.  Do what your heart says is right)

2.  Starting 5 for first game of BigTen season

3.  Average PPG for top 5 scorers

4.  A hot take

5.  Another hot take

     

1.  We finish two games over .500 overall.  NIT team.

2.  Green, Phinisee, TJD, Smith, Durham

3. Green 14, Phinisee 12, TJD 10, Smith 10, Durham 10

4. Archie's seat becomes brutally hot early in the season after a couple bad losses.

5. Archie lasts one season past this one.

[Old Friend]

1.  Overall record, B1G record, post-season results, if any (Edit: I went with 30 total games just based on what has been announced, Stuhoo points out we had 35 last year.  Do what your heart says is right)

I'm assuming Hunter gives us something.  22-13   12-8    NCAA Round of 32

2.  Starting 5 for first game of BigTen season

Phinisee, Green, Brunk, Smith, Hunter

3.  Average PPG for top 5 scorers

Green  14.2   Phinisee  12.6    Jackson-Davis  11.7   Durham  10.1   Hunter   8.2

4.  A hot take    Archie Miller will earn the respect of those who doubt him now.

5.  Another hot take   The surprise of the season will be Armaan Franklin.  

[WayneFleekHoosier]

1. 19-12. 1-1 in big. 20-13. Then either 2 or 3 wins and a loss in NIT.
2. Phinisee, Green, Smith, TJD, Brunk. Durham 6th man.
3. Green 15, Phin 11, TJD 10, Durham 10, Smith 10.
4. I’m afraidJerome Hunter doesn’t contribute this year. No info, just my feeling.
5. We have 2 injuries and have to play a walk on minutes in the rotation.
6. Justin Smith? Does he become the player he thinks he is? I pray he does.
7. Our offense is stagnant again. Win games in B1G in 60’s. Have some 50 point games again.


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[woodenshoemanHoosierfan]

Picked up my copy of the Athlon Sports preview today. Since I live in Illinois, the cover is usually an Illini and/or NW player. So glad to see an IU player on the cover, even with a Purdue player with him.

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[Loaded Chicken Sandwich]

1. IU goes 20-16(9-11). Win 1 game in the B1G tourney and 2 games in the NIT(which I included in the record. 17-14 beforehand).

2. I would like to see a starting 5 of Phinisee, Franklin, Smith, TJD, Brunk.

3. TJD averages 14.0 ppg. Green 13 ppg. Phinisee 10 ppg. Durham and Smith 7 ppg.

4. Franklin starts half the season and plays about 18 minutes a game as a spot up shooter and spacer and ends up being the hustle guy this team needs.

5. Team struggles again offensively as Archie continues to run an offense based on lazy pick and rolls rather than ball and player movement. Defense gets better but can’t overcome the offenses let downs. Archie’s seat gets hotter than this take will be.


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[Stromboli]

Now wait right there, Mr. Loaded Chicken Sandwich. This here forum's already got itself a sandwich, and yer lookin at him.

 

 

[mamasa]

16 minutes ago, Stromboli said:

Now wait right there, Mr. Loaded Chicken Sandwich. This here forum's already got itself a sandwich, and yer lookin at him.

 

 

If the two of you had a child....

 

[mdn82]

I feel like I am in the Twilight Zone with the two newbs coming hotter than a true newb. Almost like they have been here before.


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[woodenshoemanHoosierfan]

I feel like I am in the Twilight Zone with the two newbs coming hotter than a true newb. Almost like they have been here before.


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I was thinking the same thing

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[Loaded Chicken Sandwich]

Now wait right there, Mr. Loaded Chicken Sandwich. This here forum's already got itself a sandwich, and yer lookin at him.
 
 

Can we sandwiches not live in harmony? Lol. Be judged by the flavor and not by the contents of the sandwich.


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[GnarlyNormEllenberger]

After watching some Media Day coverage, I'll finally throw in my opinion... just a gut feeling.

1) Before the postseason 18-13 (9-11 in the Big Ten). I believe we'll be squarely on the bubble. I truly think it'll be 50/50 NCAA or NIT. A win or two in the Big Ten Tournament would probably be enough.

2) Starting Five By January: Phinisee, Durham, Hunter, Jackson-Davis, Brunk.

3) Top Five Scorers: Jackson-Davis 12.6, Hunter 12.1, Phinisee 10.3, Green 9.3, Durham 8.2.

Hot Take#1- Green and Smith begin the season in the starting lineup, but are passed by more effective players.

Hot Take#2- Jackson-Davis and Hunter clearly become our top options on offense by January.

A few additional thoughts...

- I've got to watch TJD some over the last three years. When he's "on", he's a LOAD. Sorta reminds me of a more advanced Jeff Newton at his age. He'll have his struggles as a freshman, but he's got A LOT of talent. His talent will make up for his youth in many games.

- People are cautious on Hunter and I get it. But I'm very optimistic about him. I think he's the perfect "3" for us. He may start the first 7-8 games slowly, but I think he'll become a consistent scorer for us and be on the floor more often than not. Let me be clear, this is a prediction. Not my expectation. If he falls short of this, I won't hold it against him as a fan.

- I have trouble seeing this year as a breakout year for Green. He can light it up for sure. And he will several times this year. But after watching three years of sample size... my expectations are low. If he's leading us in scoring this year... I don't see us making the tournament. I may not even see us with a winning record overall.

- My opinion is that Phinisee, Durham and Brunk will be the team leaders and it will be evident.

- I was a bit disappointed (maybe even a little embarrassed?) with how a few of our players handled the media day press conference. This is just my opinion, I'm probably looking into it too much and I know these are college kids. But some of the responses by a few kids seemed a bit snarky, mocking and disrespectful. I understand that not everyone is great at a podium answering questions, but some of the responses seemed a little uncalled for. Again, I'm sure the life of an IU player is difficult. And I know dealing with the media isn't always fun. But I know a simple respectful reply isn't too much to ask because the majority of the team did that.

- I think IU will be considered a team on the rise at the end of the season. TJD, Hunter and Phinisee will be on "Player Watch" lists for the next year and guys like Durham and Brunk will be hailed as great senior leaders to-be. The mood around here will be significantly brighter. Although a few posters will still be making knee-jerk reactions to everything... as per tradition. :)

As always, just my opinion. Nothing more, nothing less.