GOP Debate...

[Bryan Medema 1,488]

That wasn't just Bloomington, that was everywhere. That's why I wonder if little Bush has a chance if he gets the nomination

 

I have serious doubts with Bush in a GE. He lacks the charisma of a candidate like Obama or the folksy charm of his brother. His only gimmick is that he's the son of one President and the brother of another- not a good selling point.

 

Also, with all the assumptions about politicians being stupid, I'd like to post one of my favorite articles of all time, "George Bush is Smarter than you"

 

http://keithhennessey.com/2013/04/24/smarter/

[Alford Bailey 12,393]

I have serious doubts with Bush in a GE. He lacks the charisma of a candidate like Obama or the folksy charm of his brother. His only gimmick is that he's the son of one President and the brother of another- not a good selling point.

 

Also, with all the assumptions about politicians being stupid, I'd like to post one of my favorite articles of all time, "George Bush is Smarter than you"

 

http://keithhennessey.com/2013/04/24/smarter/

    I'm probably as far right both fiscally and morally as they come. Please not another Bush.

[seanmm1971 1,437]

I have 0 idea who will be the eventual candidate, but if I was a betting man, I would place the odds at 5/2 that it will be an anti establishment candidate. People seem to be to their breaking point with the establishment. See Bernie Sanders, Donald Trump's #'s right now.

[Defenserocks28 393]

Anyone ever heard of the 13 keys to the White House? Was developed by Allan Lichtman.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Keys_to_the_White_House#The_Track_Record_for_the_Keys

 

Basically, has never gotten the popular vote winner wrong in the general presidential election.  And what's really cool is he usually makes his picks a year or more in advance. Here's his pick for Obama in 2012 over a year in advance (Aug 2011).  Here he is predicting a democratic victory in 2008 (picked in Oct 2007).  

 

The Keys retrospectively account for the popular vote winners of every presidential election from 1860 through 1980 and prospectively forecast the popular-vote winners of all eight presidential elections from 1984 through 2012.^[1] The Keys model predicted George W. Bush’s reelection in April 2003, nearly a year before any other scientific model. In the late spring of 1988, the Keys predicted George H. W. Bush’s victory when he trailed Democrat Michael Dukakis by 17 percentage points in the polls. It predicted Bill Clinton’s win in the complex three-candidate election of 1992. In six elections, the keys have predicted three Republican and three Democratic victories in the popular vote.

 

Keys are below: 

 

The Keys are statements that favor the re-election of the incumbent party. When five or fewer statements are false, the incumbent party is predicted to win; when six or more are false, the challenging party is predicted to win.^[4]

1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
5. Short term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
6. Long term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

[Stuhoo 81,365]

 

Anyone ever heard of the 13 keys to the White House? Was developed by Allan Lichtman.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Keys_to_the_White_House#The_Track_Record_for_the_Keys

 

Basically, has never gotten the popular vote winner wrong in the general presidential election.  And what's really cool is he usually makes his picks a year or more in advance. Here's his pick for Obama in 2012 over a year in advance (Aug 2011).  Here he is predicting a democratic victory in 2008 (picked in Oct 2007).  

 

The Keys retrospectively account for the popular vote winners of every presidential election from 1860 through 1980 and prospectively forecast the popular-vote winners of all eight presidential elections from 1984 through 2012.^[1] The Keys model predicted George W. Bush’s reelection in April 2003, nearly a year before any other scientific model. In the late spring of 1988, the Keys predicted George H. W. Bush’s victory when he trailed Democrat Michael Dukakis by 17 percentage points in the polls. It predicted Bill Clinton’s win in the complex three-candidate election of 1992. In six elections, the keys have predicted three Republican and three Democratic victories in the popular vote.

 

Keys are below: 

 

The Keys are statements that favor the re-election of the incumbent party. When five or fewer statements are false, the incumbent party is predicted to win; when six or more are false, the challenging party is predicted to win.^[4]

1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
5. Short term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
6. Long term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

 

 

Very cool post. I count either five or six "falses" (based on one's point of view).

 

Sounds like it's gonna be a close one!

[Bryan Medema 1,488]

Very cool post. I count either five or six "falses" (based on one's point of view).

 

Sounds like it's gonna be a close one!

Same...I had 7 trues (2x.5s came together for one of them), 4 falses, and 2 coin-flips.

[ou812dude 3,326]

Election 2008 (Bloomington) "if you don't vote for Obama, you're screwing the country."

Election 2012 (Ranger School) "if you vote for Obama, you're screwing the country."

Almost like I went from a liberal place to a conservative one...hmm.

Monroe County still carried Obama in 2012 tho...

[Hoosierfan2017 21,564]

Well we're less than 48 hours away from the second GOP debate. Get you popcorn ready ladies, it's going to be one heck of a show. I'm expecting all of the candidates (besides Cruz) to take shots at Donald Trump and for him to brush them off like flies. I only wish the 8:00 debate didn't have so many candidates in it, I guess CNN didn't learn anything from Fox. Full steam ahead! [attachment=2597:image.jpg]

[Yogi'sBicep 1,048]

Trump has a lot of positive. But, I don't believe that he is what we need. It won't happen, kind of just a good thought. Right now, too many negatives. If he wants to get serious, I mean actually going to win this, he has to find much more subtle ground. The GOP wouldn't let a big mouthed, loose cannon win--- I don't think.

I'm personally a HUGE fan of Cruz & Carson.

Rubio is great
Trump is opt 4
Huckabee wouldn't be terrible.

[sirhoosierlot 2,803]

THE RENT IS TOO DAMN HIGH!

[OliviaPope40 6,544]

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/10/opinion/gail-collins-a-presidential-primary-cheat-sheet.html?emc=eta1&_r=0

Cheatsheet for those who need help.

[seanmm1971 1,437]

Carson!

[Bryan Medema 1,488]

Carson!

I don't like Carson, but that's just fantastic.

[Alford Bailey 12,393]

Trump-Cruz ticket is starting to grow with me.

[MartintheMopMan 7,765]

Trump-Cruz ticket is starting to grow with me.

I could not even wrap my brain around that.

 

How could the man who offered $5 million dollars because he didn't believe President Obama was a citizen because he was at worst born in a foreign country to an American mother have as his VP candidate, a man who is confirmed to have been born in a foreign country to an American mother?

 

The ability of the far right to call President Obama a "foreign usurper" while supporting Ted Cruz absolutely baffles me. And, I've never heard a better reason than "Well, Obama set the precedent!". No you morons. If you actually believed in the Constitution the way you say you do, then you can't just do something you previously claimed violated the Constitution. I mean, come on, be the bigger person, "but they did it first" is the excuse of a five-year-old.

 

For the record, I believe President Obama was born in Hawaii, and even if he were born in Indonesia it wouldn't matter because he was a citizen by right of birth through his mother. I just hate the lack of internal inconsistency in arguments. I used to spend a lot of time on the far right and far left news sites just trying to teach people better arguing strategies.

[JaybobHoosier 11,852]

Am I a Trump fan, absolutely. Will I vote for him, no. He's someone that America needed in this race in a big way however. He was needed because he actually speaks his mind, and not hide behind a team of political correctness officers. This country needs help now, and we need someone who can do it without worrying about hurting someone's feelings.

I like Cruz and Carson. I share a lot of their same beliefs and opinions, and I think they would be great for this country.

[MartintheMopMan 7,765]

Am I a Trump fan, absolutely. Will I vote for him, no. He's someone that America needed in this race in a big way however. He was needed because he actually speaks his mind, and not hide behind a team of political correctness officers. This country needs help now, and we need someone who can do it without worrying about hurting someone's feelings.

I like Cruz and Carson. I share a lot of their same beliefs and opinions, and I think they would be great for this country.

Ben Carson is a loon. He believes Obama might cancel the 2016 election to remain as dictator and that's his least crazy belief. He said the U.S. is Nazi Germany and to read Mien Kampf to understand how Obama thinks.

Guy would nuke Canada within a week.

[IU Bud 445]

I think like Hoosierfan2017 said, "but you'll find that at most big universities these days"  I think IU fits that bill, and they have for the last 30 + years or more.  I graduated in '87, was in ROTC and walked across campus almost every day in Uniform.  Many times had things yelled my way, and once was even egged. 

I just think IU has a good contingent of conservatives, but like most college campuses the conservative students are vastly outnumbered by the liberal students. 
 

My daughter is a member of the Young Republicans at her university. She was attacked verbally by a liberal student and accused of not understanding what she believed in.  After a long and vicious tirade, my daughter used the quote of " If you are not a liberal at 25, you have no heart. If you are not a Conservative at 35, you have no brain."

 

My daughter told this person that she is ahead of the curve and the maniac will hopefully figure it out one day.

 

My daughter can defend her beliefs. Like me, economics was easy for her because many of the theories taught came straight from her fiscally conservative views.

 

[jmsgws 2,181]

"If you are not a liberal at 25, you have no heart. If you are not a Conservative at 35, you have no brain."

 

I have to admit I was a lot more conservative at 25 than I am at "cough" "cough" 50.  I used to swallow hook, line and sinker, everthing the Republican Party said.  As I got older, I realized that both parties were full of BS. 

The Republicans talk a good game on fiscal conservatism, but practice something different, and they are much more intrusive into individual liberties than the Democrats. 

The Democrats at least say they are going to try and pay for their spending by taxing more, and seem to support individual liberties more than the Republicans. 

I keep waiting for the perfect politican:  A real Fiscal Conservative, and someone that tries to balance individual liberties with responsible oversight.  I have a feeling I am in for a really long wait.

[JaybobHoosier 11,852]

Ben Carson is a loon. He believes Obama might cancel the 2016 election to remain as dictator and that's his least crazy belief. He said the U.S. is Nazi Germany and to read Mien Kampf to understand how Obama thinks.

Guy would nuke Canada within a week.

What's wrong with bombing Canada? South Park had it right ;) lol