A Case for Dusty May

[lillurk 3,738]

A Case for Dusty May

 

There are no sure things in coaching hires but I think we can approach things with more nuance than hand-waving him into a pile with coaches who’ve had one good March run and flamed out later. (Also I think lots of the coaches being dismissed that way have had pretty good careers if they ended up getting a high-major chance anyway.)

 

In his first HC job, he is the best coach in FAU’s history by many orders of magnitude. Even setting aside weighing last year’s F4 run too heavily, the team’s best ever Torvik finish before May was 184th, back in 2011. May arrived in ‘19 and has been higher than that EVERY YEAR.

 

FAU has been D-1 since ‘93 and he’s the third longest-tenured coach in their history. He already has 115 of their 378 all-time D-1 wins. His career win% is 64.2%, FAU before him was 35.5%.

 

Second, even setting aside the F4 run, last year’s team was 31-3 before the tournament, with strong predictive/performance numbers. They were quite underseeded at 9. Again, at FAU. He’s cruising to an at-large, and they would’ve been so last year…at FAU. That’s not Dayton, or VCU, Gonzaga, or Wichita State, someplace with a strong hoops culture and history.

 

Third, the manner in which his FAU roster last year and this have been built bodes well for his ability to identify and develop players. Boyd, Martin, and Davis are homegrown, and each from a different region of the country. Goldin, Gaffney, and Greenlee were down-transfers from high majors, but none of the three was an established difference maker, and 2 of the 3 had very little college game tape. As far as I can tell those are the only transfers — nothing wrong with TRs but it speaks to his ability to find and build players, not just work with top ### guys. At IU you can get in the door with those guys. If he can build some guys who’ll get NBA looks with what was available to him at FAU, he can win at IU. Occasionally I see folks suggest they’re concerned about his recruiting but that misses how the sausage is made: you are only getting top guys at FAU if you 1) parent them, 2) their parents work there, or 3) some other absurd thing like 1 or 2. If he can compete like this without obvious HS talent, he’ll be fine, and IU has had dudes under every 21st century coach.

 

It’s also noteworthy that he kept the squad together this year. Even after last year’s success, I’m sure there were tantalizing opportunities for many (most?) of his roster. I think that level of buy-in and relationship scales up. They tend to spread minutes around, too, which isn’t always the answer but suggests mutual trust. This isn’t just a couple diamond-in-the-rough studs.

I’m sure we all figured they’d be pretty good this year, but I’ve been impressed that they’ve actually met or outperformed computer projections, which thought they’d be good but could be more “bubble team” than top 25.

 

I would rather win ugly than lose pretty, but FAU plays modern, attractive hoops and competes on defense. By % of minutes played their top 5 most-used players this year are wings or guards. They play one true big about 90% of the time…and the 10% that’s not true are minutes with no big or a hybrid forward at the 5, not plodding two big lineups. They’ve been well-rounded on both sides of the ball, i.e. their success isn’t JUST dependent on dominating the turnover battle or strong shooting or something else that’s gonna graduate with one particular class.

 

Finally, I love his quiet confidence. He thought he could stay and win at FAU. People know he wants the IU job, even though he knows what expectations that means. Arrogance gets in the way of self-improvement, but to win at a high level some confidence is a must.

 

I hope to watch the track record get longer, but what’s there is already really impressive, and makes me think he could jump somewhere like Louisville, Michigan, etc. and succeed quickly and for awhile. Let’s hope he does so at IU eventually. (Cc @DLG3)

[Hovadipo 55,069]

Really, really high quality post there, @lillurk. Appreciate your thoughts.

[Stuhoo 79,683]

6 minutes ago, lillurk said:

A Case for Dusty May

 

There are no sure things in coaching hires but I think we can approach things with more nuance than hand-waving him into a pile with coaches who’ve had one good March run and flamed out later. (Also I think lots of the coaches being dismissed that way have had pretty good careers if they ended up getting a high-major chance anyway.)

 

In his first HC job, he is the best coach in FAU’s history by many orders of magnitude. Even setting aside weighing last year’s F4 run too heavily, the team’s best ever Torvik finish before May was 184th, back in 2011. May arrived in ‘19 and has been higher than that EVERY YEAR.

 

FAU has been D-1 since ‘93 and he’s the third longest-tenured coach in their history. He already has 115 of their 378 all-time D-1 wins. His career win% is 64.2%, FAU before him was 35.5%.

 

Second, even setting aside the F4 run, last year’s team was 31-3 before the tournament, with strong predictive/performance numbers. They were quite underseeded at 9. Again, at FAU. He’s cruising to an at-large, and they would’ve been so last year…at FAU. That’s not Dayton, or VCU, Gonzaga, or Wichita State, someplace with a strong hoops culture and history.

 

Third, the manner in which his FAU roster last year and this have been built bodes well for his ability to identify and develop players. Boyd, Martin, and Davis are homegrown, and each from a different region of the country. Goldin, Gaffney, and Greenlee were down-transfers from high majors, but none of the three was an established difference maker, and 2 of the 3 had very little college game tape. As far as I can tell those are the only transfers — nothing wrong with TRs but it speaks to his ability to find and build players, not just work with top ### guys. At IU you can get in the door with those guys. If he can build some guys who’ll get NBA looks with what was available to him at FAU, he can win at IU. Occasionally I see folks suggest they’re concerned about his recruiting but that misses how the sausage is made: you are only getting top guys at FAU if you 1) parent them, 2) their parents work there, or 3) some other absurd thing like 1 or 2. If he can compete like this without obvious HS talent, he’ll be fine, and IU has had dudes under every 21st century coach.

 

It’s also noteworthy that he kept the squad together this year. Even after last year’s success, I’m sure there were tantalizing opportunities for many (most?) of his roster. I think that level of buy-in and relationship scales up. They tend to spread minutes around, too, which isn’t always the answer but suggests mutual trust. This isn’t just a couple diamond-in-the-rough studs.

I’m sure we all figured they’d be pretty good this year, but I’ve been impressed that they’ve actually met or outperformed computer projections, which thought they’d be good but could be more “bubble team” than top 25.

 

I would rather win ugly than lose pretty, but FAU plays modern, attractive hoops and competes on defense. By % of minutes played their top 5 most-used players this year are wings or guards. They play one true big about 90% of the time…and the 10% that’s not true are minutes with no big or a hybrid forward at the 5, not plodding two big lineups. They’ve been well-rounded on both sides of the ball, i.e. their success isn’t JUST dependent on dominating the turnover battle or strong shooting or something else that’s gonna graduate with one particular class.

 

Finally, I love his quiet confidence. He thought he could stay and win at FAU. People know he wants the IU job, even though he knows what expectations that means. Arrogance gets in the way of self-improvement, but to win at a high level some confidence is a must.

 

I hope to watch the track record get longer, but what’s there is already really impressive, and makes me think he could jump somewhere like Louisville, Michigan, etc. and succeed quickly and for awhile. Let’s hope he does so at IU eventually. (Cc @DLG3)

Want someone who has built a program and won without resources?

FAU's home gym:

Holds 2,900.

[Gnet550 920]

4 minutes ago, lillurk said:

A Case for Dusty May

 

There are no sure things in coaching hires but I think we can approach things with more nuance than hand-waving him into a pile with coaches who’ve had one good March run and flamed out later. (Also I think lots of the coaches being dismissed that way have had pretty good careers if they ended up getting a high-major chance anyway.)

 

In his first HC job, he is the best coach in FAU’s history by many orders of magnitude. Even setting aside weighing last year’s F4 run too heavily, the team’s best ever Torvik finish before May was 184th, back in 2011. May arrived in ‘19 and has been higher than that EVERY YEAR.

 

FAU has been D-1 since ‘93 and he’s the third longest-tenured coach in their history. He already has 115 of their 378 all-time D-1 wins. His career win% is 64.2%, FAU before him was 35.5%.

 

Second, even setting aside the F4 run, last year’s team was 31-3 before the tournament, with strong predictive/performance numbers. They were quite underseeded at 9. Again, at FAU. He’s cruising to an at-large, and they would’ve been so last year…at FAU. That’s not Dayton, or VCU, Gonzaga, or Wichita State, someplace with a strong hoops culture and history.

 

Third, the manner in which his FAU roster last year and this have been built bodes well for his ability to identify and develop players. Boyd, Martin, and Davis are homegrown, and each from a different region of the country. Goldin, Gaffney, and Greenlee were down-transfers from high majors, but none of the three was an established difference maker, and 2 of the 3 had very little college game tape. As far as I can tell those are the only transfers — nothing wrong with TRs but it speaks to his ability to find and build players, not just work with top ### guys. At IU you can get in the door with those guys. If he can build some guys who’ll get NBA looks with what was available to him at FAU, he can win at IU. Occasionally I see folks suggest they’re concerned about his recruiting but that misses how the sausage is made: you are only getting top guys at FAU if you 1) parent them, 2) their parents work there, or 3) some other absurd thing like 1 or 2. If he can compete like this without obvious HS talent, he’ll be fine, and IU has had dudes under every 21st century coach.

 

It’s also noteworthy that he kept the squad together this year. Even after last year’s success, I’m sure there were tantalizing opportunities for many (most?) of his roster. I think that level of buy-in and relationship scales up. They tend to spread minutes around, too, which isn’t always the answer but suggests mutual trust. This isn’t just a couple diamond-in-the-rough studs.

I’m sure we all figured they’d be pretty good this year, but I’ve been impressed that they’ve actually met or outperformed computer projections, which thought they’d be good but could be more “bubble team” than top 25.

 

I would rather win ugly than lose pretty, but FAU plays modern, attractive hoops and competes on defense. By % of minutes played their top 5 most-used players this year are wings or guards. They play one true big about 90% of the time…and the 10% that’s not true are minutes with no big or a hybrid forward at the 5, not plodding two big lineups. They’ve been well-rounded on both sides of the ball, i.e. their success isn’t JUST dependent on dominating the turnover battle or strong shooting or something else that’s gonna graduate with one particular class.

 

Finally, I love his quiet confidence. He thought he could stay and win at FAU. People know he wants the IU job, even though he knows what expectations that means. Arrogance gets in the way of self-improvement, but to win at a high level some confidence is a must.

 

I hope to watch the track record get longer, but what’s there is already really impressive, and makes me think he could jump somewhere like Louisville, Michigan, etc. and succeed quickly and for awhile. Let’s hope he does so at IU eventually. (Cc @DLG3)

I do think Woodson does deserve another year to see what he can do...and this year isn't over by any means.  It would be pretty cool if Dusty May was his eventual successor though.....I live in Clay County, neighboring Dusty's home county, Greene County.  I also have played sports with (as an adult basketball, volleyball, softball) and against (in school) against some of Dusty's relation, so I feel like that would be pretty cool!

[lillurk 3,738]

2 minutes ago, Hovadipo said:

Really, really high quality post there, @lillurk. Appreciate your thoughts.

Thanks, I waited awhile to post after you cooked someone else for a “wall of text” over the weekend

[Chris007 43,566]

4 minutes ago, lillurk said:

A Case for Dusty May

 

There are no sure things in coaching hires but I think we can approach things with more nuance than hand-waving him into a pile with coaches who’ve had one good March run and flamed out later. (Also I think lots of the coaches being dismissed that way have had pretty good careers if they ended up getting a high-major chance anyway.)

 

In his first HC job, he is the best coach in FAU’s history by many orders of magnitude. Even setting aside weighing last year’s F4 run too heavily, the team’s best ever Torvik finish before May was 184th, back in 2011. May arrived in ‘19 and has been higher than that EVERY YEAR.

 

FAU has been D-1 since ‘93 and he’s the third longest-tenured coach in their history. He already has 115 of their 378 all-time D-1 wins. His career win% is 64.2%, FAU before him was 35.5%.

 

Second, even setting aside the F4 run, last year’s team was 31-3 before the tournament, with strong predictive/performance numbers. They were quite underseeded at 9. Again, at FAU. He’s cruising to an at-large, and they would’ve been so last year…at FAU. That’s not Dayton, or VCU, Gonzaga, or Wichita State, someplace with a strong hoops culture and history.

 

Third, the manner in which his FAU roster last year and this have been built bodes well for his ability to identify and develop players. Boyd, Martin, and Davis are homegrown, and each from a different region of the country. Goldin, Gaffney, and Greenlee were down-transfers from high majors, but none of the three was an established difference maker, and 2 of the 3 had very little college game tape. As far as I can tell those are the only transfers — nothing wrong with TRs but it speaks to his ability to find and build players, not just work with top ### guys. At IU you can get in the door with those guys. If he can build some guys who’ll get NBA looks with what was available to him at FAU, he can win at IU. Occasionally I see folks suggest they’re concerned about his recruiting but that misses how the sausage is made: you are only getting top guys at FAU if you 1) parent them, 2) their parents work there, or 3) some other absurd thing like 1 or 2. If he can compete like this without obvious HS talent, he’ll be fine, and IU has had dudes under every 21st century coach.

 

It’s also noteworthy that he kept the squad together this year. Even after last year’s success, I’m sure there were tantalizing opportunities for many (most?) of his roster. I think that level of buy-in and relationship scales up. They tend to spread minutes around, too, which isn’t always the answer but suggests mutual trust. This isn’t just a couple diamond-in-the-rough studs.

I’m sure we all figured they’d be pretty good this year, but I’ve been impressed that they’ve actually met or outperformed computer projections, which thought they’d be good but could be more “bubble team” than top 25.

 

I would rather win ugly than lose pretty, but FAU plays modern, attractive hoops and competes on defense. By % of minutes played their top 5 most-used players this year are wings or guards. They play one true big about 90% of the time…and the 10% that’s not true are minutes with no big or a hybrid forward at the 5, not plodding two big lineups. They’ve been well-rounded on both sides of the ball, i.e. their success isn’t JUST dependent on dominating the turnover battle or strong shooting or something else that’s gonna graduate with one particular class.

 

Finally, I love his quiet confidence. He thought he could stay and win at FAU. People know he wants the IU job, even though he knows what expectations that means. Arrogance gets in the way of self-improvement, but to win at a high level some confidence is a must.

 

I hope to watch the track record get longer, but what’s there is already really impressive, and makes me think he could jump somewhere like Louisville, Michigan, etc. and succeed quickly and for awhile. Let’s hope he does so at IU eventually. (Cc @DLG3)

Great job!! Love it and I'm sold. Louisville scares me though. If he goes there and does well, he probably won't leave again. It's two hours from family. Louisville has already checked out Beard and said no supposedly. Mick Cronin wants Louisville badly, so if he would leave that would open up that job but they have already said no on Beard so Dusty could be an option there. We need to move now. 

[lillurk 3,738]

1 minute ago, Stuhoo said:

Wanna see someone who has built a program and won without resources?

FAU's home gym:

Like many of you I have attended multiple IHSAA tournament games at larger HS gyms.

[Chris007 43,566]

1 minute ago, Gnet550 said:

I do think Woodson does deserve another year to see what he can do...and this year isn't over by any means.  It would be pretty cool if Dusty May was his eventual successor though.....I live in Clay County, neighboring Dusty's home county, Greene County.  I also have played sports with (as an adult basketball, volleyball, softball) and against (in school) against some of Dusty's relation, so I feel like that would be pretty cool!

Clay County?? So that's what's wrong with you. Just messing with you. Yes, he comes from a good family. 

[Hornsby 1,651]

I do think Woodson does deserve another year to see what he can do...and this year isn't over by any means.  It would be pretty cool if Dusty May was his eventual successor though.....I live in Clay County, neighboring Dusty's home county, Greene County.  I also have played sports with (as an adult basketball, volleyball, softball) and against (in school) against some of Dusty's relation, so I feel like that would be pretty cool!

I don't he has. He had three years to prove what he can do which is plenty of time. Nothing is suddenly going to change next year with a 66 year old man. He is what he is and last year is his ceiling imo. If IU fans are ok with that then I guess keep him. I have no doubt May will be hired by Louisville if we don't pull the plug on Woodson.

 

Sent from my SM-A146U using Tapatalk

 

 

 

[Hoosierfan2017 20,876]

I would probably rather just have a fourth year of Woody than fire him and hire May after this season. 

[Chris007 43,566]

3 minutes ago, Hoosierfan2017 said:

I would probably rather just have a fourth year of Woody than fire him and hire May after this season. 

[lillurk 3,738]

12 minutes ago, Gnet550 said:

I do think Woodson does deserve another year to see what he can do...and this year isn't over by any means.  It would be pretty cool if Dusty May was his eventual successor though.....I live in Clay County, neighboring Dusty's home county, Greene County.  I also have played sports with (as an adult basketball, volleyball, softball) and against (in school) against some of Dusty's relation, so I feel like that would be pretty cool!

 

12 minutes ago, Chris007 said:

Great job!! Love it and I'm sold. Louisville scares me though. If he goes there and does well, he probably won't leave again. It's two hours from family. Louisville has already checked out Beard and said no supposedly. Mick Cronin wants Louisville badly, so if he would leave that would open up that job but they have already said no on Beard so Dusty could be an option there. We need to move now. 

 

2 minutes ago, Hornsby said:

I don't he has. He had three years to prove what he can do which is plenty of time. Nothing is suddenly going to change next year with a 66 year old man. He is what he is and last year is his ceiling imo. If IU fans are ok with that then I guess keep him. I have no doubt May will be hired by Louisville if we don't pull the plug on Woodson.

 

Sent from my SM-A146U using Tapatalk

 

 

 

Tend to agree that Woodson deserves another year if he wants it, though of course his direct report needs to give him some clear feedback about the issues everyone sees (Dolson sees it too, I’m sure).

That’s clearly fair, unless he’s just done, in which case we have no choice. Practically speaking CMW’s buyout is 50% of remaining salary after 4/1/25.

Are we sure May would go to UL? I’m not convinced. There was some reporting/rumor going around that they were pretty low on cash, he probably has the guys to be prettt good again at FAU next year, and if he has an inkling the dream job might come available….

Even if UL is interested — and I’m not convinced — I don’t know if the interest is mutual.

[WayneFleekHoosier 47,942]

Want someone who has built a program and won without resources?
FAU's home gym:

Holds 2,900.

The counter is he doesn’t know what the beast of the B1G is all about.
Had no pressure at FAU. This year he has medium pressure but I’d still a Cinderella story. Being the hunted is a different beast with less margin for error at an entirely different level of skill and athleticism.

The Arizona win was very nice. But it was still under the Cinderella pretenses.

It certainly seems like what Indiana admin has in mind though. And I get it.


Sent from my iPad using BtownBanners mobile app

[Hoosierfan2017 20,876]

3 minutes ago, Chris007 said:

The mid-major flavor of the year doesn’t excite me. I want to poach a coach from another program. If IU can’t do that (and I don’t think they can), then we’re likely in for another multi-year slow burn rebuild. I’m not interested in that. I’ve been hearing “it’s only year X, wait till he gets his guys and system in place” for far too long. Get me a guy who can kick a** in year 1 and I’ll be excited. 

[southsidehoosier 4,967]

23 minutes ago, Chris007 said:

Clay County?? So that's what's wrong with you. Just messing with you. Yes, he comes from a good family. 

I mean they have the Cory apple festival. I married a Clay Co girl. Guess she didn’t find anyone at her family reunion to date

[Stuhoo 79,683]

5 minutes ago, Hoosierfan2017 said:

The mid-major flavor of the year doesn’t excite me. I want to poach a coach from another program. If IU can’t do that (and I don’t think they can), then we’re likely in for another multi-year slow burn rebuild. I’m not interested in that. I’ve been hearing “it’s only year X, wait till he gets his guys and system in place” for far too long. Get me a guy who can kick a** in year 1 and I’ll be excited. 

1. Props for being consistent
2. On the other hand "less optimistic than @Hornsby" is quite a feat to accomplish lol.

[Hornsby 1,651]

1. Props for being consistent
2. On the other hand "less optimistic than [mention=8814]Hornsby[/mention]" is quite a feat to accomplish lol.

Not really I just don't think Woodson is the guy. Maybe he will prove me wrong but some were still saying archie is the guy four years in. Many knew after two years he wasn't.

Sent from my SM-A146U using Tapatalk

[AKHoosier 6,739]

He plays a fun style that flows way better than our offense. Better basketball minds than mine can probably put details and specifics around that statement. 

I just know what I see when I watch his games vs ours.

I say with our NIL, fan support, and recruiting grounds I'd sure as heck be happy with him at the helm.

[Artie86 1,866]

22 minutes ago, lillurk said:

 

 

Tend to agree that Woodson deserves another year if he wants it, though of course his direct report needs to give him some clear feedback about the issues everyone sees (Dolson sees it too, I’m sure).

That’s clearly fair, unless he’s just done, in which case we have no choice. Practically speaking CMW’s buyout is 50% of remaining salary after 4/1/25.

Are we sure May would go to UL? I’m not convinced. There was some reporting/rumor going around that they were pretty low on cash, he probably has the guys to be prettt good again at FAU next year, and if he has an inkling the dream job might come available….

Even if UL is interested — and I’m not convinced — I don’t know if the interest is mutual.

I thought I read somewhere that Coach May currently has an "out" clause ONLY for IU, in his current contract with FAC....if they offer. Any truth to that?

[Hoosierfan2017 20,876]

15 minutes ago, Stuhoo said:

1. Props for being consistent
2. On the other hand "less optimistic than @Hornsby" is quite a feat to accomplish lol.

I’m very pessimistic when it comes to about everything, lol. I want to see IU move like the top dogs move. Poaching someone’s coach would be a clear signal that we’re ready to start doing so. Hiring May is a wait and see move. I’m too impatient at this point for that. 

May could succeed here, and he very well may be the best we can do. It just doesn’t fire me up.