Game Thread: NCAA R64 vs. Kent State - 3/17 @ 10:45 pm (no lie)ET on TBS

[hoosierbgh]

6 minutes ago, Stuhoo said:

That's an overstatement in my mind.

If both teams play to an equal level of expectation, we are estimated to be about 4 points better. So, if all goes according to plan, It'll be about a nail-biting 70-66 IU victory. 

My prediction?

With complete confidence, I can predict that the game thread will be full of all of these things:

• panic,
• worry,
• joy, and
• shock that we are either trailing or can't put Kent State away.

And then

• extreme anger if we lose or
• great relief if we win by the expected single digits.

It'll probably be a fairly close game, I'd be surprised if it wasn't back and forth for much of the game, but what is this 4 points estimate based on?

Betting, which is influenced by public opinion?

Metrics, which are likely somewhat inflated for Kent St. and deflated for IU based on opponents played?

The fact remains that IU hasn't yet lost to a Kent ST. level team nor has Kent St. beaten an IU level team yet this season. Doesn't mean it can't happen or the game won't be close but it does mean that the predictions that it will happen are based on other things than the demonstrated performance of either team. 

I'd say your predictions are pretty accurate except you forgot the post game predictions of the sky is falling if we lose and the predictions of hanging another banner or criticism of the margin of victory if IU wins. 

[Hoosierfan1901]

Big hit for KSU, seemed like they were hoping he was going to play, takes a big chunk of time too at 27 MPG

 

[Stuhoo]

3 minutes ago, Hoosierfan1901 said:

Big hit for KSU, seemed like they were hoping he was going to play, takes a big chunk of time too at 27 MPG

 

He seems to be a nice player, but they have now won 11 in a row without him.

[hoosierbgh]

31 minutes ago, triple said:

I'll link one.  Criticize all you like, but I'm out.  Life is too short to get into arguments on message boards.  

Go Hoosiers!

March Madness 2023: Ranking every NCAA Tournament first-round game from No. 1 to 32 - CBSSports.com

IMO, the worst thing about that article from an IU perspective is that it is almost entirely about Kent St., they throw a brief mention of JHS in at the end and don't even mention TJD. Basically a slight by omission. 

If it gets more people to tune into the IU game, I'm not going to complain.

[Stuhoo]

10 minutes ago, hoosierbgh said:

 

The fact remains that IU hasn't yet lost to a Kent ST. level team nor has Kent St. beaten an IU level team yet this season. Doesn't mean it can't happen or the game won't be close but it does mean that the predictions that it will happen are based on other things than the demonstrated performance of either team. 

It's a solid point. 

Kent State is 70 in KenPom. The worst KenPom rated team that IU has lost to this season is Northwestern (twice), who is 42 in KenPom.

[sweetpain]

Carey is 6 "1, Jacob's is 6 "3 and Sullinger is 5 "10 maybe. How will they deal with 6"6 JHS? We have definite height advantage. Get them in foul trouble and we cruise. Now if JHS gets fouls that is a problem.

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[rcbowla]

To me it's not about what Kent St can or cannot do. Nor if they are really good or not. It's more what IU can or cannot do and a lot less Kent St. Hoosiers should win, obviously, but they're called upsets for a reason and IU is just as susceptible to one as any other team that comes out playing crap while their opponent has a good to great game.

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[Stuhoo]

2 minutes ago, rcs29 said:

To me it's not about what Kent St can or cannot do. Nor if they are really good or not. It's more what IU can or cannot do and a lot less Kent St. Hoosiers should win, obviously, but they're called upsets for a reason and IU is just as susceptible to one as any other team that comes out playing crap while their opponent has a good to great game.

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They will double Trayce. Can Miller, Trey, JHS and Tamar knock down a few jumpers early?

If they can? We good. If not? Ruh-oh.

[Dave from Dayton]

I speculate that their guards will try to rattle JHS. If JHS gets into foul trouble or can't make plays, then IU may suffer. JHS has to have a good game.

Galloway and others beat that attempt by crisp passing and getting the ball quickly across half cout and then inside. 

Just be quick passers. Kent State does like to steal. Just pass down court.

And be first to the loose balls.

[go iu bb]

2 minutes ago, Dave from Dayton said:

I speculate that their guards will try to rattle JHS. If JHS gets into foul trouble or can't make plays, then IU may suffer. JHS has to have a good game.

He's a freshman but not easily rattled so I doubt they'd have much luck with that. That's one of his strengths.

[Loaded Chicken Sandwich]

This definitely isn't an unfamiliar spot for IU fans. 4 seed in 2012 and people were picking 13 seed New Mexico State as the upset, we won 79-66. Then 12 seed VCU as the upset in the 2nd round, we won a close one 63-61. 2016 as a 5 seed, people were picking 12 seeded Chattanooga as the upset and we won 99-74. 

The MAC recently in the tourney...

2022: (12)Akron lost (5)UCLA 53-57

2021: (13) Ohio beat (4) Virginia 62-58

2019: (6) Buffalo beat (11) Arizona State 91-74

2018: (13) Buffalo beat (4) Arizona 89-68

2017: (14) Kent State lost to (3) UCLA 80-97

[Dave from Dayton]

1 hour ago, go iu bb said:

He's a freshman but not easily rattled so I doubt they'd have much luck with that. That's one of his strengths.

I wonder. For instance, most recently IU struggled defensively and JHS did not do well offensively. 

Our lack of guard depth (and at wings) can cause problems. Maybe not so much against Kent. That's because of IU's height on the front line. 

But at guard, Kent is good and it could depend on turnovers.

Like I said, hope JHS has a great game. 

Will the referees call it tightly? This isn't the BigTen anymore. Watch those fouls!

And personally, I have no respect for their coach. Crean was right...Senderhoff screwed IU and flipped on he who must not be named.

[HoosierHoopster]

3 hours ago, rcs29 said:

To me it's not about what Kent St can or cannot do. Nor if they are really good or not. It's more what IU can or cannot do and a lot less Kent St. Hoosiers should win, obviously, but they're called upsets for a reason and IU is just as susceptible to one as any other team that comes out playing crap while their opponent has a good to great game.

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Dead on. We have to show up and play well, period.

Why I'm optimistic -- regardless of the strengths or weaknesses of Kent, our guys are returning with the experience of getting trounced in the second game last year and having to play in the play-in to advance, and this is TJD's last chance, along with the other seniors. We'll be ready.

[str8baller]

4 hours ago, hoosierbgh said:

Metrics, which are likely somewhat inflated for Kent St. and deflated for IU based on opponents played?

Strength off schedule is factored in on metrics like kenpom and torvick. 

[Class of '66 Old Fart]

Spero Dedes, Debbie Antonelli and A.J. Ross set to be on call for Indiana vs. Kent State on Friday (TBS).

[Whoozhers]

If we get by K State….. We would play at 12:10 EST Sunday?

Is that right?

[OliviaPope40]

Did Galloway just roll out bed?

[RaceToTheTop]

5 hours ago, Dave from Dayton said:

I speculate that their guards will try to rattle JHS. If JHS gets into foul trouble or can't make plays, then IU may suffer. JHS has to have a good game.

Galloway and others beat that attempt by crisp passing and getting the ball quickly across half cout and then inside. 

Just be quick passers. Kent State does like to steal. Just pass down court.

And be first to the loose balls.

JHS should have 4 inches on anyone who is guarding him.  More importantly, he’ll have 4 inches on anyone he guards.  The fact the TJD is capable of bringing the ball up Court on a rebound is important as well.

[RaceToTheTop]

7 hours ago, Stuhoo said:

They will double Trayce. Can Miller, Trey, JHS and Tamar knock down a few jumpers early?

If they can? We good. If not? Ruh-oh.

Doubling Trayce hasn’t really shut him down this year, though, because of how well he passes it.  Teams that have defended us best had a physical big center to guard him with.

[hoosierbgh]

2 hours ago, str8baller said:

Strength off schedule is factored in on metrics like kenpom and torvick. 

Yes, to a degree and within the assumptions of the model.