Bracketology and Team Resumes

[Uspshoosier]

My top 16 for now 
 

1. Bama 

2. Kansas 

3. Purdue 

4. Houston 

5. Texas

6. UCLA 

7.  Zona 

8.  Baylor 

9.   Tenn 

10.   Virginia 

11. Marquette

12. UConn 

13.   Zags 

14.   Iowa St 

15.  Kansas St 

16.   IU 

Considered

Xavier, Miami, St Marys, Creighton 

last couple spots could go either way but for me IU gets the last 4 spot over Xavier because of head to head and X has losses to teams over 100 NET.   Kansas st has a non con sos over 300 so I’m looking forward to see where they sit tomorrow.   
 Kansas is 12-5 in Q1 games with 6 of those on the road.  I don’t think they can be 1 overall but they are definitely 2 overall.     

[RaceToTheTop]

My top 16 WAR through Thursday:

1. Alabama
2. Kansas
3. Purdue
4. UCLA
5. Arizona
6. Houston
7. Baylor
8. Texas
9. Gonzaga
10. Marquette
11. Virginia
12. San Diego St
13. Kansas St
14. Xavier
15. Miami (F)
16. Connecticutt

Just out:  Tennessee, St. Mary's, Iowa State, Indiana

Obviously USPS is the bracket expert, but I'm glad my calculations are getting closer.  13 of the 16 of my match USPS's and the other 3 are in my top 20.

[Uspshoosier]

11 hours ago, Uspshoosier said:

My top 16 for now 
 

1. Bama 

2. Kansas 

3. Purdue 

4. Houston 

5. Texas

6. UCLA 

7.  Zona 

8.  Baylor 

9.   Tenn 

10.   Virginia 

11. Marquette

12. UConn 

13.   Zags 

14.   Iowa St 

15.  Kansas St 

16.   IU 

Considered

Xavier, Miami, St Marys, Creighton 

last couple spots could go either way but for me IU gets the last 4 spot over Xavier because of head to head and X has losses to teams over 100 NET.   Kansas st has a non con sos over 300 so I’m looking forward to see where they sit tomorrow.   
 Kansas is 12-5 in Q1 games with 6 of those on the road.  I don’t think they can be 1 overall but they are definitely 2 overall.     

Baylor-5, 

ucla-6 

texas-7 

zona-8 

more I look the more I think Xavier will be in the top 16 and IU will be the 17th team but I’m going to keep IU at 16th because I can 

[RaceToTheTop]

9 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

Baylor-5, 

ucla-6 

texas-7 

zona-8 

more I look the more I think Xavier will be in the top 16 and IU will be the 17th team but I’m going to keep IU at 16th because I can 

The one that will interesting to me will be where they place UConn

[Uspshoosier]

4 minutes ago, RaceToTheTop said:

The one that will interesting to me will be where they place UConn

Zona for me.   They have 5 Q1a wins but all their losses are to teams projected out of my field 

[WayneFleekHoosier]

Zona for me.   They have 5 Q1a wins but all their losses are to teams projected out of my field 

Zona is interesting. The Eye test depending on the game is as impressive as any team in the country. But the losses are bad. And those eye tests wouldn’t be pretty. At their best, I think they are the best team in the country, but clearly they aren’t always on it.

Tennessee is a bit like this too. Kansas.


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[Uspshoosier]

14 minutes ago, WayneFleekHoosier said:

Zona is interesting. The Eye test depending on the game is as impressive as any team in the country. But the losses are bad. And those eye tests wouldn’t be pretty. At their best, I think they are the best team in the country, but clearly they aren’t always on it.

Tennessee is a bit like this too. Kansas.


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Kansas is just impressive.   Their resume is ridiculous.  12-5 in Q1(5 in Q1a), 4-0 in Q2.   All losses to top 25 NET teams.    Sos-1.   Predictive and Results based metrics are solid.    Earlier in the year people said this Kansas team wasn’t impressive.    For me they would be the number 1 overall seed based on resume but projecting what the committee will do I think it will be Bama 

[RaceToTheTop]

5 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

Kansas is just impressive.   Their resume is ridiculous.  12-5 in Q1(5 in Q1a), 4-0 in Q2.   All losses to top 25 NET teams.    Sos-1.   Predictive and Results based metrics are solid.    Earlier in the year people said this Kansas team wasn’t impressive.    For me they would be the number 1 overall seed based on resume but projecting what the committee will do I think it will be Bama 

Kansas’s WAR for me says they are a tournament worthy team even with a 14-12 record.  Their schedule has been nuts.

[Uspshoosier]

Indiana was the top 4 seed and 13th overall 

[Loaded Chicken Sandwich]

2 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

Indiana was the top 4 seed and 13th overall 

Gonna losing it quick too. 

[Uspshoosier]

6 minutes ago, Loaded Chicken Sandwich said:

Gonna losing it quick too. 

Post about it in the game thread then 

[Loaded Chicken Sandwich]

2 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

Post about it in the game thread then 

What's the case for us over Marquette or Xavier?

[Uspshoosier]

17 minutes ago, Loaded Chicken Sandwich said:

What's the case for us over Marquette or Xavier?

Xavier has lost 2 games to teams 100+ in the NET and lost head to head to IU on their home court.  IU’s overall SOS is better.  Not sure on Marquette I will have to look at it closer and see why they have IU over them.   I had Marquette a 3 seed.     Heck of job by IU to climb to the 4 seed line after you claimed they would go 1-7.  You just never know what will happen.   They might fall or rise but as of today the committee said their resume was 13th 

[Uspshoosier]

Although IU was locked in the tourney with a win against Michigan for me this seals it.    So for anyone that was still stressing about if this team was going to make the tourney after the rough 1-4 start in league play stop stressing.    Locked in and playing the rest of the year to build the resume 

[Uspshoosier]

I’m still at work when I get home I will post more thoughts on the top 16.   Small one though now is X was the last 4 seed and they have a NET around 26.    Just an example of what I try to tell people that a teams overall net number isn’t as important their body of work within the team sheet 

[southsidehoosier]

28 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

Although IU was locked in the tourney with a win against Michigan for me this seals it.    So for anyone that was still stressing about if this team was going to make the tourney after the rough 1-4 start in league play stop stressing.    Locked in and playing the rest of the year to build the resume 

Might take a few years before I’m not stressing the selection show. 6 years ingrained a lot of negative thinking

[lillurk]

Didn’t see the bracket show so if this was mentioned, forgive me: any consideration to IU’s injury issues in slotting them at 13?

[HoosierHoopster]

1 minute ago, lillurk said:

Didn’t see the bracket show so if this was mentioned, forgive me: any consideration to IU’s injury issues in slotting them at 13?

Didn’t catch the show but they generally don’t consider injuries in their slotting 

[RaceToTheTop]

5 hours ago, RaceToTheTop said:

The one that will interesting to me will be where they place UConn

No U Conn in the reveal.  That was the one I was interested in as they were 8 in NET and 5 on Pom.  5-6 in Q1, 3-0 in Q2.  The biggest mark against them IMO was that they were playing really well early but have dropped off some.  Didn't think that they would drop out of the 16 even though I had them barely in.

@Uspshoosier, thoughts on why they were omitted?

Also, with the #11 and #12 teams (Iowa State/Kansas State) playing each other today, does IU move up to a 3 seed?

[southsidehoosier]

4 minutes ago, RaceToTheTop said:

No U Conn in the reveal.  That was the one I was interested in as they were 8 in NET and 5 on Pom.  5-6 in Q1, 3-0 in Q2.  The biggest mark against them IMO was that they were playing really well early but have dropped off some.  Didn't think that they would drop out of the 16 even though I had them barely in.

@Uspshoosier, thoughts on why they were omitted?

Also, with the #11 and #12 teams (Iowa State/Kansas State) playing each other today, does IU move up to a 3 seed?

Wonder if Tennessee dropping a 10 pt loss to UK moves them down