Bracketology and Team Resumes

[Loaded Chicken Sandwich]

I just need to learn bracketology I guess... Would be good for the podcast(and website when I get that back to going).

[Uspshoosier]

1 hour ago, Loaded Chicken Sandwich said:

I guess I don't get the love for San Diego State. But I guess I'd need to see al their numbers. New Mexico probably has the best win out of any of them over Saint Mary's on the road(?).

Love compared to other MWC teams or overall?    I wouldn’t necessarily say I’m in love with their resume having them as an 7 or 8 seed but compared to the other MWC teams it’s definitely the best one.   New Mexico definitely has the best win of the bunch at St Marys but they also have 2 Q3 losses one of which was at home and the other to a team 171 in the NET.   Their Sos is 90th and non con 240.   Compare that to San Diego st who doesn’t have a Q3 loss and sos is 30 and non con 33.  Even though New Mexico won at San Diego St their resume isn’t better.    0 chance you could handle bracketology because you would have to acknowledge some losses as being considered good losses.  Lol 

[Loaded Chicken Sandwich]

1 hour ago, Uspshoosier said:

Love compared to other MWC teams or overall?    I wouldn’t necessarily say I’m in love with their resume having them as an 7 or 8 seed but compared to the other MWC teams it’s definitely the best one.   New Mexico definitely has the best win of the bunch at St Marys but they also have 2 Q3 losses one of which was at home and the other to a team 171 in the NET.   Their Sos is 90th and non con 240.   Compare that to San Diego st who doesn’t have a Q3 loss and sos is 30 and non con 33.  Even though New Mexico won at San Diego St their resume isn’t better.    0 chance you could handle bracketology because you would have to acknowledge some losses as being considered good losses.  Lol 

Well maybe true, but would definitely be interesting. 

[Hovadipo]

Here’s some Quad talk for ya. 

[Uspshoosier]

 

[BGVille Hoosierfan]

Indiana is officially locked into the Tournament! Finally don’t have to sweat out the Big Ten Tournament.

[RaceToTheTop]

My WAR hasn't liked IU all season (starting calculating values in early mid January).....they were 26th entering this week.  They have moved up nine spots this week after the Rutgers and Michigan games and sit at 17.

[RaceToTheTop]

On 2/10/2023 at 5:26 PM, Loaded Chicken Sandwich said:

I guess I don't get the love for San Diego State. But I guess I'd need to see al their numbers. New Mexico probably has the best win out of any of them over Saint Mary's on the road(?).

Pom top 20 non-conference SOS, 26th SOS overall.  I would agree that the number of outstanding wins isn't great, but it's their five losses are teams that are likely in the tournament right now.

Also of note:  24 games against D1 competition, they have played only one game against a team below 169 on POM.  

[RaceToTheTop]

Here are the winners of games I listed earlier as NCAA-ish games to watch today.  Winners are in green.

12	West Virginia	at	10	Texas	12:00 PM	ESPN2
29	Providdence	at	89	St. John's	12:00 PM	Fox
56	Penn St	at	24	Maryland	12:00 PM	BTN
40	Kentucky	at	123	Georgia	12:00 PM	ESPN
47	NC State	at	163	Boston Colleeg	12:00 PM	ESPN+
60	Pittsburgh	at	187	Florida St	12:00 PM	ESPNU
11	Marquette	at	206	Georgetown	12:00 PM	Fox Sports1
12	Kansas	at	54	Oklahoma	1:00 PM	CBS
72	Clemson	at	35	North Caroilna	2:00 PM	ESPN2
6	Connecticutt	at	9	Creighton	2:00 PM	Fox
59	Virginia Tech	at	179	Notre Dame	2:00 PM	ESPN+
2	Alabama	at	27	Auburn	2:00 PM	ESPN
145	Lou Tech	at	34	Florida Atlantic	2:00 PM	ESPN+
17	Rutgers	at	25	Illinois	2:00 PM	Fox Sports1
49	Oral Roberts	at	282	Western Illinois	3:00 PM	none
95	Vanderbilt	at	44	Florida	3:30 PM	SEC network
64	Wisconsin	at	104	Nebraska	4:00 PM	BTN
13	Baylor	at	23	TCU	4:00 PM	ESPN2
82	UNLV	at	22	San Diego St	4:00 PM	Fox
33	Duke	at	14	Virginia	4:00 PM	ESPN
71	Charleston	at	347	Hampton	4:00 PM	none
208	Georgia Tech	at	66	Wake Forest	5:00 PM	ACC network
93	Louisiana	at	144	Troy	5:00 PM	none
114	Charlotte	at	69	North Texas	6:00 PM	ESPN+
45	Mississippi St	at	19	Arkansas	6:00 PM	ESPNU
21	Indiana	at	51	Michigan	6:00 PM	ESPN
31	Oklahoma St	at	18	Iowa St	6:00 PM	ESPN2
48	USC	at	204	Oregon St	6:00 PM	Pac 12 network
7	St. Mary's	at	149	Portland	6:00 PM	CBSSN
55	Missouri	at	4	Tennessee	6:00 PM	SEC network
305	Louisville	at	30	Miami (F)	7:00 PM	ACC network
65	Arizona St	at	253	California	8:00 PM	Pac 12 network
8	Arizona	at	100	Stanford	8:00 PM	ESPN2
171	Wyoming	at	28	Boise St	8:00 PM	CBSSN
57	Seton Hall	at	67	Villanova	8:00 PM	Fox Sports1
36	Texas A&M	at	128	LSU	8:30 PM	SEC network

 

Edit:  Va Tech should be in green.

[Uspshoosier]

I will do a deeper dive later but the short version of why I locked IU into the tourney after this win is because even if IU would lose out they would be 18-14.   4 games over .500 with a massive win against Purdue and 2 road wins against tournament quality teams with 7wins against the field (I have Wisky last 4 in)and 1 other against teams near the cut line is a solid resume for a team near the cut line. Sos top 15.   Even if IU loses out and you compare that to other teams near the cut line IUs resume would be hard to leave out.  Worst loss would be to Penn St who is a bubble team on the road.  5 games left against tournament teams and 1 against a bubble team.   Even if they lost to Minny in B1G tourney that would only be 1 bad loss compared to other teams with multiple near the cut line.    Props to IU players and coaching staff for  not  folding  when they lost 3 straight and was 1-4 to start B1G play and down your starting pg.   they just locked themselves in the tourney on Feb 11th.    Heck of run.    This is the minimum outcome but  with they way they are playing right now they could have their eyes on a 3 seed and if they go nuts and keep winning a 2 seed could be in sight.  Excited to see where they go.   If you have any questions about IU’s resume or about any other teams  feel free to ask.  

[southsidehoosier]

2 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

I will do a deeper dive later but the short version of why I locked IU into the tourney after this win is because even if IU would lose out they would be 18-14.   4 games over .500 with a massive win against Purdue and 2 road wins against tournament quality teams with 7wins against the field (I have Wisky last 4 in)and 1 other against teams near the cut line.   Sos top 15.   Even if IU loses out and you compare that to other teams near the cut line IUs resume would be hard to leave out.  Worst loss would be to Penn St who is a bubble team on the road.  5 games left against tournament teams and 1 against a bubble team.   Even if they lost to Minny in B1G tourney that would only be 1 bad loss compared to other teams with multiple near the cut line.    Props to IU players and coaching staff for  not  folding  when they lost 3 straight and was 1-4 to start B1G play and down your starting pg.   they just locked themselves in the tourney on Feb 11th.    Heck of run.    This is the minimum outcome but  with they way they are playing right now they could have their eyes on a 3 seed and if they go nuts and keep winning a 2 seed could be in sight.  Excited to see where they go.   If you have any questions about IU’s resume or about any other teams  feel free to ask.  

I saw an interview on Friday with a guy on the Jim Coyle show and he said using the Torvik seed calculator the highest he projected IU was a high 3 seed. You think 2 is an outside possibility?

[Uspshoosier]

Just now, southsidehoosier said:

I saw an interview on Friday with a guy on the Jim Coyle show and he said using the Torvik seed calculator the highest he projected IU was a high 3 seed. You think 2 is an outside possibility?

Definitely if they won out and won the B1G tourney that would be hard to leave off the 2 line.    That would be extremely hard to do but let’s just project that to happen.  That’s 4 more Q1 wins and 2 Q2 with a sweep of Purdue.   Add 3 more high wins an and conference tourney championship and for me that’s easily a 2 seed.  It would be interesting if I compare that to the 1 seeds if that happen.    That’s an extreme example that is very unlikely to happen but interesting to project out 

[RaceToTheTop]

4 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

Definitely if they won out and won the B1G tourney that would be hard to leave off the 2 line.    That would be extremely hard to do but let’s just project that to happen.  That’s 4 more Q1 wins and 2 Q2 with a sweep of Purdue.   Add 3 more high wins an and conference tourney championship and for me that’s easily a 2 seed.  It would be interesting if I compare that to the 1 seeds if that happen.    That’s an extreme example that is very unlikely to happen but interesting to project out 

Also noteworthy that some of the teams that would be between IU and that scenario would be teams that are going to be playing each other.  I.e., Arizona and UCLA are going to end the regular season against each other and could meet again in the Pac 12 tournament;  quite a few Big 12 teams fighting for a two seed will also still play each other.  

[Hovadipo]

32 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

Definitely if they won out and won the B1G tourney that would be hard to leave off the 2 line.    That would be extremely hard to do but let’s just project that to happen.  That’s 4 more Q1 wins and 2 Q2 with a sweep of Purdue.   Add 3 more high wins an and conference tourney championship and for me that’s easily a 2 seed.  It would be interesting if I compare that to the 1 seeds if that happen.    That’s an extreme example that is very unlikely to happen but interesting to project out 

In this extremely unlikely scenario, you’d also be 1 more Purdue slip up from a regular season title too, right? That’d be an insane resume. 

[Uspshoosier]

13 minutes ago, Hovadipo said:

In this extremely unlikely scenario, you’d also be 1 more Purdue slip up from a regular season title too, right? That’d be an insane resume. 

I think 2 more.   If IU won out they would be 15-5.   Even if IU beat them again they would need Purdue to lose 2 more for them to get to 5 losses in the conference.   Purdue has taken advantage of their schedule and are going to be tough to catch 

[Hovadipo]

7 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

I think 2 more.   If IU won out they would be 15-5.   Even if IU beat them again they would need Purdue to lose 2 more for them to get to 5 losses in the conference.   Purdue has taken advantage of their schedule and are going to be tough to catch 

Math is hard. 

[Uspshoosier]

Jumped to 17th in the NET 

[HoosierHoopster]

10 hours ago, Uspshoosier said:

I think 2 more.   If IU won out they would be 15-5.   Even if IU beat them again they would need Purdue to lose 2 more for them to get to 5 losses in the conference.   Purdue has taken advantage of their schedule and are going to be tough to catch 

Really wish they’d address the unbalanced scheduling in the B1G. PU was given a clear advantage this year

[HoosierHoopster]

10 hours ago, Hovadipo said:

Math is hard. 

Copy cat

:)

[Hoosierfan1901]

Team Rankings:

Has us 100% in now

Likely a 4 seed

Projected to lose in the R32