Bracketology and Team Resumes

[Uspshoosier]

13 minutes ago, IU_FanClub said:

St. John's vs Butler tonight at 5 eastern. St. John's is at 78 in the net so a win today could move them into Quad 2 range for us. Not much else going on today but later I'm gonna look at the bubble games for the weekend and see who I need to painfully root against while we aren't playing lol

Richmond/Vcu will be a game to watch tonight.   Vcu can’t afford a loss at home if they want to stay in the at-large picture.  Horizon league will have some good games tonight.     Kent St/Ohio should be a good one.    Nebraska/Maryland I will probably be the only one watching that game.    

[IU_FanClub]

2 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

Richmond/Vcu will be a game to watch tonight.   Vcu can’t afford a loss at home if they want to stay in the at-large picture.  Horizon league will have some good games tonight.     Kent St/Ohio should be a good one.    Nebraska/Maryland I will probably be the only one watching that game.    

Well go Richmond then haha!

[IU_FanClub]

Lunardi's latest bracket has us as a 10 seed still above the Last 4 Byes. Let's just beat OSU on Monday and not blow the rest of our remaining cushion please

[Uspshoosier]

23 minutes ago, IU_FanClub said:

Lunardi's latest bracket has us as a 10 seed still above the Last 4 Byes. Let's just beat OSU on Monday and not blow the rest of our remaining cushion please

Just for reference Lunardi isn’t the best with the accuracy.  He is around 55th last year    

[Hovadipo]

Purely FWIW, from this morning's Bracket Watch on The Athletic:

 

"We compared the top 48 seeds from the 2019 and 2021 tournaments to the NET rankings on those Selection Sundays. Here is what we found, and what it might indicate for 2022:

NET actually correlates pretty well with seeding. The selection committee emphasizes that the NET mostly is used for the quadrant system and is not really looked at as a pure ranking. Quality wins vs. bad losses, schedule strength and computer metrics are all vital ingredients in the stew. But at least in the first two tournaments using it, teams’ seeds hewed closer to their NET number than we imagined.

On average, the NET and overall seed line of the 96 teams we studied fell within 6.7 spots of one another. That includes some serious outliers, such as Georgetown and Oregon State last season and Oregon in 2019, which wouldn’t have been at-large teams but won their conference tournaments and grabbed 12 seeds. Power conference teams, including those in the First Four, will almost never fall below a 12. Taking out those autobid bombers and First Four participants in the two years leaves us with 85 teams. The average difference between the NET and seed for those clubs: 5.4 spots, or a little more than one seed line. And last season, the top eight seeds in the tournament also finished in the top eight of the NET. Pretty tidy.

The five lowest NET-ranked teams to get an at-large bid were … 2019 St. John’s (NET: 73); 2021 Wichita State (72); 2021 Michigan State (70); 2019 Arizona State (63) and 2019 Minnesota (61).

Important context here: the 2019 St. John’s team and last season’s Michigan State squad each owned five Quad 1 victories on Selection Sunday; 2019 Arizona State was 11-6 in the first two quads despite some bad losses. 2021 Wichita State was the big outlier, making the field despite only four Q1 & 2 wins combined (last year, we have may have mentioned, was weird).

This shows that a NET in the 60s or 70s is not necessarily a killer if there are some good wins attached. For whom is that good news for this year? Let’s start with Rutgers.

The Scarlet Knights entered Thursday night ranked 75th in the NET and saddled with three losses in Quads 3 and 4. But after beating Illinois on Wednesday, they also have a 6-3 record in Quad 1. Here’s a partial list of teams that do not have six Q1 victories: Arizona, Kentucky, Tennessee, Duke, UCLA … you get the idea. The committee has shown over and over that winning big games is the most important factor in selection, and Rutgers compares favorably in that regard to those previous at-large invitees.

Other teams that this might apply to include Creighton (71st in NET but owning wins over Villanova, Marquette, BYU and UConn) and Miami (63rd in NET but 4-1 in Q1)."

[HoosierAloha]

8 hours ago, Southside said:

Yup. Even though the PAC has won like how many Natty's in the past 30 years... what, like one?

Good old Bill. He does have his own line of weed though. So his comments aren't really shocking anyone lol.

Puff puff pass Bill.

The PAC 12 does have a boatload of natty's in other sports besides basketball in the past 30 years. I believe that is part of reasoning. Although, it's quite difficult to determine his reasoning for most things unless you're in a special state of mind. What's your name again?

[Hovadipo]

-The Athletic

[Stuhoo]

8 minutes ago, Hovadipo said:

-The Athletic

 

Quick hot take?

Look at that regional as an example -- if we squeak in, there's a lot to be said for preferring to be an 11 seed over an 8 or 9 seed.

 

[Uspshoosier]

9 minutes ago, Hovadipo said:

-The Athletic

Would take that draw in a heartbeat.   Sometimes the draw is more important then the seed.   In this case it is a better draw to be the 11 seed then it is to be the 10,9,8, 7 seed 

[Hovadipo]

3 minutes ago, Stuhoo said:

 

Quick hot take?

Look at that regional as an example -- if we squeak in, there's a lot to be said for preferring to be an 11 seed over an 8 or 9 seed.

 

 

2 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

Would take that draw in a heartbeat.   Sometimes the draw is more important then the seed.   In this case it is a better draw to be the 11 seed then it is to be the 10,9,8, 7 seed 

Absolutely. That would be one heck of a draw. Win your first game, then play first to 50 in the second round where anything can happen.

[Stuhoo]

The calculus is:

• Is a first round 6 seed a significantly tougher opponent than a 8,9, or 10 seed? I would say a little but not much.

The payoff is:

• In the second round how much tougher are the one seeds (currently Gonzaga, Arizona, Auburn) than the three seeds? Answer: A whole bunch very much tougher.

[NashvilleHoosier]

No thank you. Not for me. I think Tenn would beat us by 25 points all while wearing candy striped pants and you guys/gals may not have to deal with the aftermath of that but I WILL!! 

[Hoosier2016]

Finish 3-2 and we're comfortably in...no matter who the 3 teams are we beat...finish 2-3 and we will have to win 1 or 2 in the Big Ten Tourney. Over 50% chance of making the tourney if we reach 19 wins in the regular season. https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-tournament/bracketology/

[IU_FanClub]

49 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

Just for reference Lunardi isn’t the best with the accuracy.  He is around 55th last year    

Bracket Matrix has us as the 2nd 10 seed so I figure it checks out

[Rico]

CBS has us in the First Four playing SMU.  Fwiw, Rutgers is a #11 as is Iowa.  Michigan is in the First Four Out.

[Uspshoosier]

7 minutes ago, Rico said:

CBS has us in the First Four playing SMU.  Fwiw, Rutgers is a #11 as is Iowa.  Michigan is in the First Four Out.

Palm a Purdue grad has IU playing in the first 4.    Then they are safer then I thought. Lol.      Yeah IU is in the (10 seed- first 4 out range).    Win  Monday and they will move up and gives yourself a chance to finish strong.  Lose Monday and you leave yourself 0 margin for error 

[HoosierAloha]

1 hour ago, NashvilleHoosier said:

No thank you. Not for me. I think Tenn would beat us by 25 points all while wearing candy striped pants and you guys/gals may not have to deal with the aftermath of that but I WILL!! 

Final score: Tenn 27 - IU 2?

I'm not sure either team gets to 25 points in a WAS game. This would set basketball back 20 years

[NashvilleHoosier]

1 hour ago, HoosierAloha said:

Final score: Tenn 27 - IU 2?

I'm not sure either team gets to 25 points in a WAS game. This would set basketball back 20 years

They're averaging about 75 points over the past 3 weeks or so. They've put it together recently and are looking pretty darn good. 

[Stuhoo]

23 minutes ago, NashvilleHoosier said:

They're averaging about 75 points over the past 3 weeks or so. They've put it together recently and are looking pretty darn good. 

Bracketology currently has the #3 seeds as Nova, Wisconsin, Texas Tech, and Providence. 

Clear to me that if we were in and played them we would have a real chance against at least two of those teams.

[RaceToTheTop]

1 hour ago, Stuhoo said:

Bracketology currently has the #3 seeds as Nova, Wisconsin, Texas Tech, and Providence. 

Clear to me that if we were in and played them we would have a real chance against at least two of those teams.

I love what providence has done this year but they are likely ripe to an early exit.