Bracketology and Team Resumes

[Indiana muskie]

16 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

No break in the schedule now to do that.   Only chance was after Maryland and before Illinois.   You would want to do it for a Q1 or Q2 game to improve the Non con SOS.   Would of been a challenge but USC just did it with Pacific 

Tks mailman 

[TheWatShot]

7 hours ago, Indiana muskie said:

Stupid ? Prob wrong thread maybe already brought up. Can IU schedule a game to play to make up for unc Ashville at this point. If so do you do it to get closer to 20 wins . What kinda quad game would you look for if so. 

We had options the week after Christmas and did nothing. This team has made it pretty clear they aren't going to play if they don't have to. 

[IUHoosierJoe]

3 hours ago, TheWatShot said:

We had options the week after Christmas and did nothing. This team has made it pretty clear they aren't going to play if they don't have to. 

Interesting.  Who did we turn down that wanted to play us?

[TheWatShot]

25 minutes ago, IUHoosierJoe said:

Interesting.  Who did we turn down that wanted to play us?

No one in particular reached out to us, but Bellarmine was actively looking for a game that night. It wouldn't have been too difficult to get them here, but Woodson came right out and said after the cancellation that we weren't going to schedule a replacement game. 

[RaceToTheTop]

5 hours ago, TheWatShot said:

We had options the week after Christmas and did nothing. This team has made it pretty clear they aren't going to play if they don't have to. 

A home game against Bellarmine being the difference between 19 or 20 wins would do zero for the resume. They would just be another quad 4 game on the non-conference schedule.

[RaceToTheTop]

15 hours ago, HoosierHoops1 said:

I think your points make sense, but I would gather most people would have predicted Indiana with a much better record against the actual teams, than considering "Michigan, Wisky, Providence" etc.

That was the point.  People tend to look at the name of the school instead of how they have performed.  

[RaceToTheTop]

IU's NET ranking dropped only one spot after the Northwestern game -- 34 now.

[RaceToTheTop]

I know I said I wouldn't be doing long posts on my system.....but anyway:

Here is where I have the field -- again, my system isn't really meant to predict what the NCAA will do, it's more about where I measure teams should be based on their total wins and losses compared to schedule.

Team, overall rank, seed, wins above minimum needed to be a bubble team.

Auburn, 1, 1, +7.7

Kansas, 2, 1, +6.7

Baylor, 3, 1 +6.6

Wisconsin, 4, 1, +6.4

Purdue, 5, 2, +6.2

Providence, 6, 2, +5.9

Arizona, 7, 2, +5.5

Kentucky, 8, 2, +4.8

Villanova, 9, 3, +4.7

Wyoming, 10, 3, +4.3

Texas Tech, 11, 3, +4.2

Gonzaga, 12, 3, +4.1

Houston, 13, 4, +4.1

UCLA, 14, 4, +4.1

Illinois, 15, 4, +4.1

Duke, 16, 4, +3.8

Michigan State, 17, 5, +3.6

Tennessee, 18, 5, +3.5

Ohio State, 19, 5, +2.9

USC, 20, 5, +2.9

Texas, 21, 6, +2.9

LSU, 22, 6, +2.9

Alabama, 23, 6, +2.8

Marquette, 24, 6, +2.8

Colorado St, 25, 7, +2.7

Boise St, 26, 7, +2.6

Davidson, 27, 7, +2.6

St. Mary's, 28, 7, +2.5

Arkansas, 29, 8, +2.5

Xavier, 30, 8, +2.4

Loyala (Ill), 31, 8, +2.1

TCU, 32, 8, +2.1

Murray State, 33, 9, +2.0

North Carolina, 34, 9, +2.0

Wake Forest, 35, 9, +1.9

New Mexico St, 36, 9, +1.8

Iowa State, 37, 10, +1.8

Iona, 38, 10, +1.7

U Conn, 39, 10, +1.6

San Francisco, 40, 10, +1.3

Notre Dame, 41, 11, +1.3

Miami (F), 42, 11, +1.3

BYU, 43, 11, +1.2

Seton Hall, 44, 11 +1 (last four byes)

West Virginia, 45, 12, +0.9 (last four byes)

Creighton, 46, 12, +0.8 (last four byes)

South Dakota St, 47, 12, +0.8

Iowa, 48, 12, +0.7 (last four byes)

Indiana, 49, 13, +0.7 (last four in)

San Diego St, 50, 13, +0,6 (last four in)

Belmont, 51, 13, +0.6 (last four in)

Stanford, 52, 13, +0,6 (last four in)

------------------------

first out:  SMU +0.5

second out:  Ohio +0.5

third out:  Oregon +0.3

fourth out:  St.Louis +0.2

fifth out:  VCU +0.2

sixth out:  UAB +0.1

seventh out:  Michigan +0.1

eighth out:  Florida -0.1

ninth out:  Colorado -0.1

tenth out:  Oklahoma -0.2.

 

 

 

[Hoosierfan1901]

As one would thing that our tournament chances would have plummeted yesterday. It only dropped by roughly 6% to 82% according to Teamrankings and if we somehow get in, will likely be an 9 seed. However, our percentage has seen an -12 decrease in the last 2 games. These next 3 games will be telling

[Uspshoosier]

Did some digging on IU’s road record over the last 6 years.   Yikes   Definitely not road  warriors    
 

Creans  last year through this year.   I need to compare it to other teams but it doesn’t paint a pretty picture.  To say it is hard for the IU program to win on the road would be a understatement 

2017-(2-9)

2018-(3-8)

2019-(3-9)

2020-(2-8)

2021-(3-7)

2022-(2-5 so far)

15-46 overall 

 

[HoosierAloha]

On 2/6/2022 at 6:28 PM, HoosierAloha said:

Would definitely like to stay off that 8/9 seed line. I like your decent chance of a potential 6 seed spot!

Decent change of a potential Sweet 16 too!

Our chance to win it all only dropped 0.1%

[RaceToTheTop]

1 hour ago, Uspshoosier said:

Did some digging on IU’s road record over the last 6 years.   Yikes   Definitely not road  warriors    
 

Creans  last year through this year.   I need to compare it to other teams but it doesn’t paint a pretty picture.  To say it is hard for the IU program to win on the road would be a understatement 

2017-(2-9)

2018-(3-8)

2019-(3-9)

2020-(2-8)

2021-(3-7)

2022-(2-5 so far)

15-46 overall 

 

I assume that is true road games (not neutral courts)?

IMO, would be very beneficial for IU to start looking at a game or two non-conference against a couple mid majors.  Comes with the risk of losing, but the lack of road experience before conference games is not good.

[Uspshoosier]

9 minutes ago, brumdog45 said:

I assume that is true road games (not neutral courts)?

IMO, would be very beneficial for IU to start looking at a game or two non-conference against a couple mid majors.  Comes with the risk of losing, but the lack of road experience before conference games is not good.

Yes true road games 

[Indiana muskie]

2 hours ago, Uspshoosier said:

Did some digging on IU’s road record over the last 6 years.   Yikes   Definitely not road  warriors    
 

Creans  last year through this year.   I need to compare it to other teams but it doesn’t paint a pretty picture.  To say it is hard for the IU program to win on the road would be a understatement 

2017-(2-9)

2018-(3-8)

2019-(3-9)

2020-(2-8)

2021-(3-7)

2022-(2-5 so far)

15-46 overall 

 

That's not good at all.

[RaceToTheTop]

Loyola might be playing themselves into bubble status if they don't win their conference tourney.  Lost at Bradley tonight.  They can try to build up the victory total with what's left, but losses really hurt because the quads left aren't kind.  Currently they have only one victory over a Pom top 50.  No bad losses currently, but a trip up at Illinois St or Valpo could be their undoing.  They previously took double OT at home to beat Valpo.

[Uspshoosier]

Where things stand on Super Bowl Sunday.   IU finds themselves ins pretty familiar place with 3 weeks to go in the regular season.   IU fans are all too familiar with their position.   The season is going to take 1 of 2 turns in coming weeks.  Can this team find a way to take the different path.    Im sure you me by now to know that im going to tell it like it is for their chances whether that is good or bad.   While their is a lot of bad going on IU is still in a position to do something the program hasn’t done since 2016.    With that said please keep this to being about their resume and Bracketology and  not about how bad the program direction is.   Plenty of other places and other threads for that 

The Numbers 

16-8

NET- 42 

Q1a-(1-4)     Q1b-(1-1)

Q2a-(1-3)      Q2b-(1-0)

Q3-(4-0)

Q4-(8-0)

SOS-50

Non con SOS-325

Ken Pom-45

SOR-44

People need to remember that a teams results do not happen in a vacuum.   Other teams are winning and losing around a team that will effect how things are set.   And as bad as IU has looked in these last 3 games their resume and predictive metrics and results based metrics all measure out to a team that for now is still in and not on the bubble.    Not where IU fans as a whole would want them I’m sure they want them closer to the 4-6 range but right now they are in the 9-10 range for me 

not having any losses in the Q3 and Q4 range is huge for teams like IU.  It’s like having an extra Q1 win compared to others teams that have multiple Q3 or even Q4 losses.    When I talk about a loss being a Q1 or Q2 it doesn’t mean as a fan I’m fine with those losses it just means from my bracketologist side I know how they are viewed.   On the flip side IU has 1 major flaw on their resume that will basically end their tournament hopes if they end up falling to the cut line.   History shows the committee will not select a bubble team with a Non con SOS over 270 and IU, Wake and USC among others do.  Committee would have to do something they haven’t done before for one of those teams to make it in at the first 4 with a non con that bad.    If you are a fan of those teams you want your team to avoid that and just win games and avoid the bubble 
 

last year IU was 12-9 on February 20 with 6 games left and was in the 9-11 range and proceeded to lose the last 6.   If you added the 4 or 5 buy games they missed out on they would of been 17-9 or 16-9

this years team is 16-8 heading into a game Feb 15.      Basically the same   
 

Tuesdays game is about as big as they come     Win anther Q1 game and the path is easier.   A loss makes that path a lot harder.   Not impossible just harder.    Plus all B1G, Big 12, Big East bubble teams have an extra opportunity that other conference bubble teams won’t have which is a chance in the conference tournament to pick up Q1 and Q2 neutral court wins.    Other conferences will have opportunities but basically every game played in the conferences I mentioned will feature those opportunities.    Buckle up Hoosier fans  

 

[Stuhoo]

8 hours ago, Uspshoosier said:

Where things stand on Super Bowl Sunday.   IU finds themselves ins pretty familiar place with 3 weeks to go in the regular season.   IU fans are all too familiar with their position.   The season is going to take 1 of 2 turns in coming weeks.  Can this team find a way to take the different path.    Im sure you me by now to know that im going to tell it like it is for their chances whether that is good or bad.   While their is a lot of bad going on IU is still in a position to do something the program hasn’t done since 2016.    With that said please keep this to being about their resume and Bracketology and  not about how bad the program direction is.   Plenty of other places and other threads for that 

The Numbers 

16-8

NET- 42 

Q1a-(1-4)     Q1b-(1-1)

Q2a-(1-3)      Q2b-(1-0)

Q3-(4-0)

Q4-(8-0)

SOS-50

Non con SOS-325

Ken Pom-45

SOR-44

People need to remember that a teams results do not happen in a vacuum.   Other teams are winning and losing around a team that will effect how things are set.   And as bad as IU has looked in these last 3 games their resume and predictive metrics and results based metrics all measure out to a team that for now is still in and not on the bubble.    Not where IU fans as a whole would want them I’m sure they want them closer to the 4-6 range but right now they are in the 9-10 range for me 

not having any losses in the Q3 and Q4 range is huge for teams like IU.  It’s like having an extra Q1 win compared to others teams that have multiple Q3 or even Q4 losses.    When I talk about a loss being a Q1 or Q2 it doesn’t mean as a fan I’m fine with those losses it just means from my bracketologist side I know how they are viewed.   On the flip side IU has 1 major flaw on their resume that will basically end their tournament hopes if they end up falling to the cut line.   History shows the committee will not select a bubble team with a Non con SOS over 270 and IU, Wake and USC among others do.  Committee would have to do something they haven’t done before for one of those teams to make it in at the first 4 with a non con that bad.    If you are a fan of those teams you want your team to avoid that and just win games and avoid the bubble 
 

last year IU was 12-9 on February 20 with 6 games left and was in the 9-11 range and proceeded to lose the last 6.   If you added the 4 or 5 buy games they missed out on they would of been 17-9 or 16-9

this years team is 16-8 heading into a game Feb 15.      Basically the same   
 

Tuesdays game is about as big as they come     Win anther Q1 game and the path is easier.   A loss makes that path a lot harder.   Not impossible just harder.    Plus all B1G, Big 12, Big East bubble teams have an extra opportunity that other conference bubble teams won’t have which is a chance in the conference tournament to pick up Q1 and Q2 neutral court wins.    Other conferences will have opportunities but basically every game played in the conferences I mentioned will feature those opportunities.    Buckle up Hoosier fans  

 

I’m in no way a bracketologist but it feels to me if we win three of our last six we’d have no additional bad losses and at 19-11 we’d be in pretty good shape.

Remember, our schedule just went through it’s roughest stretch, but we “paid forward” in conference by going 7-4 before the road got tough.

If we get a good day where the shots fall and continue to play pretty hard we should have a reasonable outcome.

The highest optimism moments over a long season rarely represent reality, but the toughest stretches also don’t usually paint an accurate picture.

[WayneFleekHoosier]

I’m in no way a bracketologist but it feels to me if we win three of our last six we’d have no additional bad losses and at 19-11 we’d be in pretty good shape.
Remember, our schedule just went through it’s roughest stretch, but we “paid forward” in conference by going 7-4 before the road got tough.
If we get a good day where the shots fall and continue to play pretty hard we should have a reasonable outcome.
The highest optimism moments over a long season rarely represent reality, but the toughest stretches also don’t usually paint an accurate picture.

I think we get in at 19-11, too fwiw.


Sent from my iPad using BtownBanners mobile app

[HoosierAloha]

8 hours ago, Uspshoosier said:

Where things stand on Super Bowl Sunday.   IU finds themselves ins pretty familiar place with 3 weeks to go in the regular season.   IU fans are all too familiar with their position.   The season is going to take 1 of 2 turns in coming weeks.  Can this team find a way to take the different path.    Im sure you me by now to know that im going to tell it like it is for their chances whether that is good or bad.   While their is a lot of bad going on IU is still in a position to do something the program hasn’t done since 2016.    With that said please keep this to being about their resume and Bracketology and  not about how bad the program direction is.   Plenty of other places and other threads for that 

The Numbers 

16-8

NET- 42 

Q1a-(1-4)     Q1b-(1-1)

Q2a-(1-3)      Q2b-(1-0)

Q3-(4-0)

Q4-(8-0)

SOS-50

Non con SOS-325

Ken Pom-45

SOR-44

People need to remember that a teams results do not happen in a vacuum.   Other teams are winning and losing around a team that will effect how things are set.   And as bad as IU has looked in these last 3 games their resume and predictive metrics and results based metrics all measure out to a team that for now is still in and not on the bubble.    Not where IU fans as a whole would want them I’m sure they want them closer to the 4-6 range but right now they are in the 9-10 range for me 

not having any losses in the Q3 and Q4 range is huge for teams like IU.  It’s like having an extra Q1 win compared to others teams that have multiple Q3 or even Q4 losses.    When I talk about a loss being a Q1 or Q2 it doesn’t mean as a fan I’m fine with those losses it just means from my bracketologist side I know how they are viewed.   On the flip side IU has 1 major flaw on their resume that will basically end their tournament hopes if they end up falling to the cut line.   History shows the committee will not select a bubble team with a Non con SOS over 270 and IU, Wake and USC among others do.  Committee would have to do something they haven’t done before for one of those teams to make it in at the first 4 with a non con that bad.    If you are a fan of those teams you want your team to avoid that and just win games and avoid the bubble 
 

last year IU was 12-9 on February 20 with 6 games left and was in the 9-11 range and proceeded to lose the last 6.   If you added the 4 or 5 buy games they missed out on they would of been 17-9 or 16-9

this years team is 16-8 heading into a game Feb 15.      Basically the same   
 

Tuesdays game is about as big as they come     Win anther Q1 game and the path is easier.   A loss makes that path a lot harder.   Not impossible just harder.    Plus all B1G, Big 12, Big East bubble teams have an extra opportunity that other conference bubble teams won’t have which is a chance in the conference tournament to pick up Q1 and Q2 neutral court wins.    Other conferences will have opportunities but basically every game played in the conferences I mentioned will feature those opportunities.    Buckle up Hoosier fans  

 

Are we at a point that we need certain wins or just wins will do?

We still have Wiscy and @O$U during our "rough stretch" before things get quite a bit easier. If we were to only win those easier games (Maryland, Rutger, @Minny) does that matter?

[HoosierAloha]

On 2/9/2022 at 8:33 PM, HoosierAloha said:

Our chance to win it all only dropped 0.1%

Oh noes, our title hopes took another shot. We slipped from 0.2% to 0.1%.