You be the Committee

[RaceToTheTop 26,304]

7 hours ago, hoopsta007 said:

It’s beating a dead horse but Texas is still in Joe’s field and Butler is still in the running for an at large bid. He really gets paid for this stuff?

 

6 hours ago, Lebowski said:

15 losses Texas won't get in.  They face Kansas.  

Florida has the same win-loss record as IU and the only win (not plural) worth a darn is then #13 LSU on the road.  Ole boy from ESPN has FL as a 'Last Four Byes', not only in but with a freakin' bye?  The more I look at ESPN's analogy the better I feel about IU's chances of dancing.

 

Yeah, I get that Texas played a tough non-con schedule...but they likely will finish 16-16.  If you use Lunardi’s logic, a loss to Texas would move them from bye to last four in.  Even an upset win over Kansas and a loss in the next round leaves them 17-16....meanwhile we had a talking head on national TV saying IU shouldn’t be in because of their record but dudn’t Mention Alabama, Florida, or Texas — teams with our record or worse.

[BGVille Hoosierfan 2,913]

Yeah, I get that Texas played a tough non-con schedule...but they likely will finish 16-16.  If you use Lunardi’s logic, a loss to Texas would move them from bye to last four in.  Even an upset win over Kansas and a loss in the next round leaves them 17-16....meanwhile we had a talking head on national TV saying IU shouldn’t be in because of their record but dudn’t Mention Alabama, Florida, or Texas — teams with our record or worse.

Texas is only in some brackets for one reason and that’s the Longhorn Network but even all that $ isn’t going to help them get a bid at 16-16. As far as the the talking heads go, they are just that...talking heads and shouldn’t be listened to when it comes to this process. These guys have never been in the “war room” during the selection process and are clueless as to what is measured/valued for the seeding. I used to always use Lunardi and used to be so shocked when the actual field/seeds were announced. Outside of the first 3 seeds he’s basically useless. I now venture over to his bracketologies for comic relief. Do yourself a favor and go to bracketmatrix.com and you can literally find 65+ bracketologists more accurate than Lunardi. You’ll get a lot better understanding looking at the top 10 ranked Bracketologists including Bracketville, Delphi, and Andy Bottoms.


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[Old Friend 8,389]

The talking heads know nothing about how the selection process works.   I've listened to Greg Shaheen 3 times on the radio since last Wednesday, and he'd be the best authority on that matter.   Amazing how differently he explains things than the talking heads seem to believe the process works.

Indiana has 4 wins against teams (MSU twice, Marquette, Wisconsin.  How high did Louisville get?) which have touched the top 12 this season.  I don't know of many if any other teams (in similar situations)  which can say that.  Indiana (and God this is refreshing to say) is playing its best basketball right now.   That matters.

Indiana's worst loss on paper was to Rutgers, who's 79th in Sagarin this week. (Northwestern is 74th).  For the sake of the discussion, Indiana is 32nd right now.  Texas lost to Radford..#137.  That's a horrible loss.   They also lost to our friend Tom Crean at Georgia.  They have some GREAT wins too....North Carolina being their best, and their SOS is #5  (Indiana #13).    They have a case...but I don't think as strong as Indiana.

Florida was 1-9 against top 25.  Indiana 4-6.  Florida was 3-11 against top 50.  Indiana 6-12.   Our resume is better than Florida.  Florida doesn't have any horrible losses; but they did lose to Butler; who has fallen off the map.  

Alabama lost to Northeastern, #99 Sagarin.   They lost to Georgia State.  #119.  They lost to Texas A&M #80.  We shouldn't have to worry about Alabama.   If Indiana wins one in Chicago, it's at least 50/50 we get in.   If we win 2, I think it's a no brainer.

[HoosierAloha 30,077]

I think Arizona is in a tough situation in their conference tourney. They’ll get either Stanford or UCLA in their first game. Those will be quad 3 games. If they make it past that game they’ll face either Utah, Washington State, or Oregon. Oregon and Utah would be quad 2 games and WSU a quad 3 game. They’ll have to make it to the title game and hope Washington gets there too in order to have a quad 1 game in their tourney. That shows how bad the PAC 12 has been this season.


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[Hoosier1984 1,573]

Nick Ward looks to be back for MSU if we get to that second game


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[WayneFleekHoosier 48,672]

Wesson and Ward unfortunately will make things tough.


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[cbp4iu 1,624]

If Wofford loses... Are they a guaranteed lock? Looking at their schedule... Kinda a meh schedule

[Uspshoosier 46,368]

If Wofford loses... Are they a guaranteed lock? Looking at their schedule... Kinda a meh schedule

Guaranteed lock. Not even close to the bubble


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[Alford Bailey 12,415]

Hopefully 1 more win is enough. The odds of beating MSU 3 times in a season are not good.

[JHoosier914 1,187]

Guaranteed lock. Not even close to the bubble


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Good thing they didn’t lose.


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[Bobman1 2,909]

Wesson and Ward unfortunately will make things tough.


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C’mon Fleek there’s always a half full side of things! Could’ve easily beaten OSU with Wesson a few games ago and already did beat MSU with Ward on the road. Only difference is IU’s playing a lot better now than during either one of those games!


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[WayneFleekHoosier 48,672]

C’mon Fleek there’s always a half full side of things! Could’ve easily beaten OSU with Wesson a few games ago and already did beat MSU with Ward on the road. Only difference is IU’s playing a lot better now than during either one of those games!


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Agree. Excited to watch. Those guys just make it tougher. Expected both of them being back so no surprise there for me.


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[Southside 1,914]

15 hours ago, mdn82 said:

I think over the last few weeks you are putting too much emphasis on NET. I feel I have seen a few people say that to you and you continue to be surprised by some of the things you see. The NET is not the be all end all. They aren’t going to use it 1-68 to pick the field. It’s the discussion starter, not discussion ender. That and Joe is far from the best at what he does (that also has not been updated).


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i've actually posted that the NET is not the end all... my post was simply adding the NET, saying Joe was smoking, and commented on his rankings vs NET.... and this thread is full of people surprised that teams move up or down more or less than they expect (in the NET).

regardless, the NET is the new guiding tool. 

in short, Joe is hit or miss. i've been following stats and brackets for 40+ years, so pretty aware there are a lot of factors. this is the first year of NET though, and it's the NCAA's creation. we'll see how much they follow their own tool, and how subjective they will be (compared to other years). IMO, it won't change a lot, the NCAA Committee will just look a little sillier when they ignore their own system.

[Rico 3,109]

3 minutes ago, Irish YJ said:

i've actually posted that the NET is not the end all... my post was simply adding the NET, saying Joe was smoking, and commented on his rankings vs NET.... and this thread is full of people surprised that teams move up or down more or less than they expect (in the NET).

regardless, the NET is the new guiding tool. 

in short, Joe is hit or miss. i've been following stats and brackets for 40+ years, so pretty aware there are a lot of factors. this is the first year of NET though, and it's the NCAA's creation. we'll see how much they follow their own tool, and how subjective they will be (compared to other years). IMO, it won't change a lot, the NCAA Committee will just look a little sillier when they ignore their own system.

40+ years?  You are going back in time to when there were only 32 teams.  I know, I was there.

[Walking Boot of Doom 18,170]

Hopefully 1 more win is enough. The odds of beating MSU 3 times in a season are not good.

Keep seeing this statement lately, and I recalled this tweet:

As he clarifies in a reply, it’s hard to beat a good team. So if you run the same scenario three times odds are you won’t win all three. However, the data suggests that coaches’ “can’t win three times” statement may be false.


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[Southside 1,914]

1 hour ago, Rico said:

40+ years?  You are going back in time to when there were only 32 teams.  I know, I was there.

lol. yup, 40+ years. i was at IU during the BK years too. the olden days when during frosh year you had to share a phone box with a rotary phone and super long cord, with the room next door. tacos across the street were only like 50 cents though IIRC, so there were a lot of good things lol.

getting old.

[Class of '66 Old Fart 85,587]

5 hours ago, Irish YJ said:

getting old.

Nope.  You're just becoming more vintage!  lol

[Alford Bailey 12,415]

8 hours ago, Walking Boot of Doom said:

Keep seeing this statement lately, and I recalled this tweet:

 

 

 

As he clarifies in a reply, it’s hard to beat a good team. So if you run the same scenario three times odds are you won’t win all three. However, the data suggests that coaches’ “can’t win three times” statement may be false.


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How many of those were a good team beating a bad team for the third time and how many were a ninth place team beating the conference champions for the third time? Im guessing the latter was close to zero.

[Uspshoosier 46,368]

The reason some bracketologist have IU out and behind some teams that they probably should be in front of I’m going to try and explain it to you. In a normal bubble IU chances would be around 20% instead of 70%. Bracketologist rely on numbers to make their bracket. They also rely on what the committee has done through the history of the past teams that have gotten at-large bids. For example history shows that the magic record for at-large bids is 4 games or better over .500. Usually if you are under that I don’t seriously consider that team. Only 2 times in history has the committee selected a team 4 games under .500 in conference (Florida St, Iowa St). Only 2 times in history have they taken teams with 15 losses. Those 3 things is why a lot are saying they need 2 to feel safe. 2 wins gets them to 4 games over .500. Personally I feel they get in with 1 more win with how terrible the bubble is this year but I would be sweating. Hope that helps


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[mdn82 25,546]

The reason some bracketologist have IU out and behind some teams that they probably should be in front of I’m going to try and explain it to you. In a normal bubble IU chances would be around 20% instead of 70%. Bracketologist rely on numbers to make their bracket. They also rely on what the committee has done through the history of the past teams that have gotten at-large bids. For example history shows that the magic record for at-large bids is 4 games or better over .500. Usually if you are under that I don’t seriously consider that team. Only 2 times in history has the committee selected a team 4 games under .500 in conference (Florida St, Iowa St). Only 2 times in history have they taken teams with 15 losses. Those 3 things is why a lot are saying they need 2 to feel safe. 2 wins gets them to 4 games over .500. Personally I feel they get in with 1 more win with how terrible the bubble is this year but I would be sweating. Hope that helps


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Excellent explanation. Made perfect sense.


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