Keys to Victory: Penn State

All streaks come to an end.

At least that’s what Hoosier fans will be telling themselves Friday night as they try to get some sleep before the Nittany Lions roll into Bloomington.

Penn State has truly been a nightmare for the Hoosiers over the years. They are a perfect 16-0 all-time against Indiana and have given IU fans some truly haunting memories. I personally had my first trip to Memorial Stadium ruined when Larry Johnson gashed the Indiana defense for 327 yards (11 years later IU still hasn’t figured out how to stop the run). And who could forget this miserable ending:

Think of that next time Gerry DiNardo seems to have all the answers on the Big Ten Network.

But, as Coach Wilson pointed out, these are two completely unique teams playing Saturday. Here is what Indiana will need to do to start the Big Ten season off with a win.

#1 Score Early

The Indiana offense is to blame for each of the Hoosier’s losses this year. That’s right. The offense.

Sit tight.

Much has been made of the need for the Hoosiers to develop a running game. It is absolutely essential that they balance their attack in order to become less predictable, but this appears to be a function of play calling rather than ability.

On paper, Indiana has three different running backs averaging over 6 yards per carry, and only four other B1G running backs are averaging more yards per game than Tevin Coleman. Indiana obviously has the ability to run the ball, so why are they 10^th in the conference in the category?

It appears to be a consequence of the Hoosier's inability to put points on the scoreboard early on in games. The all-powerful Hoosier offense has scored a grand total of 0 first quarter points each of their losses. When the offense is playing from behind, the coaches tend to rely too heavily on the passing game, making the offense easier to defend for opposition.

The first key to knocking off the Nittany Lions then will be for the offense to do something they haven't done much of this year: score early.

#2 Score Often

Although the Indiana State game has skewed the statistics, this is another area where the Indiana offense hasn't been up to snuff.

Indiana’s football team is not designed to play in low scoring games. A natural consequence of running the no-huddle offense and scoring 13 times under 90 seconds through 4 games is that the defense is called upon to play more downs with less rest. With the current talent-level, the defense is not expected to shut teams out, but to force enough punts and turnovers so that the offense has adequate opportunities to outscore their opponents. The defense has given the offense sufficient opportunities, but the offense has not capitalized at an acceptable rate thus far.

A closer look at the Missouri makes this crystal clear.

Through 3 quarters, Indiana’s offense accounted for 1 net score on 12 possessions (an interception returned for a TD negates one of the IU scores). On the other side of the ball, the Indiana defense forced a turnover or punt on 6 of Missouri’s 10 possessions.

In other words, the Indiana defense had a 60% success rate while the offense had one of 8%. For Indiana to win, the offense obviously has to have a higher success rate than the defense, and that’s not going to happen at 8%.

Here’s another way of looking at things. Let’s say the IU defense gets 1 point for every possession they reach their goal (prevent the opponent from scoring). We will similarly award the IU offense 1 point for each possession they reach their goal (scoring). Additionally, we will subtract a point from the offense if they allow the opposing defense to score. The score through 3 quarters in the Missouri game would have been:

FINAL SCORE

IU Defense: 6 IU Offense: 1

For Indiana to be successful this week (and for the rest of the season) the offense has to improve their efficiency, and this week is a great place to start.

Penn State fans are understandably nervous about the matchup between the Nittany Lion's defense and Hoosier's offense. Although PSU has the 11^th ranked defense in the country, they were torched last week by their first real competition. Central Florida used their dynamic passing offense to expose PSU’s first-year corners and force the Nittany Lions to make plays in space, a task at which the PSU defensive unit failed miserably.

The exciting news for Hoosier fans is that Indiana runs the same style of offense as the Bulls, and they're even better at it. Indiana enters Saturday's contest ranked 14 spots higher in passing yards per game and 33 spots higher in rushing yards per game. From a purely statistical standpoint, anything UCF was able to do against the Penn State defense, Indiana should be able to do better.

#3 Relax and Play Football

It was clear last week that Indiana let the magnitude of a game against the SEC get to them, especially on the offensive side of the ball. The IU recievers had several uncharacteristic drops early on and never got into a rhythm on offense. Shane Wynn spoke this week about the need to relax and have fun.

We need to play the way we practice. In practice nobody is afraid to make a mistake. Nobody is afraid to do something wrong. We're all having fun. In a game you've got that tight edge that something bad is going to happen. You can't do that.

-Shane Wynn

The result of the Missouri game had much more to do with what the Hoosiers didn’t do than anything the Tigers actually did. Therefore, Indiana spent most of their time during the bye week focusing on themselves rather than their future opponents.

While the offense needs to relax, the defense needs to get comfortable. Up to this point, the players inability to grasp the defensive concepts has hindered their ability to simply go out and play football. If you've watched any games this year, the players' confusion is evident. They frequently can be be seen looking around or throwing their hands up in the air in desperation while looking to the sidelines for guidance. Defensive coordinator Doug Mallory spoke to this point earlier this week.

Once kids get comfortable with [the schemes], the game slows down. It allows them to play with a lot more confidence It allows them to play faster.

-Defensive Coordinator Doug Mallory

Hopefully the players and coaches have figured out their own defense during their bye week.

#4 Make the Phenom Look Like a Freshman

There is no denying the talent of Penn State freshman quarterback Christian Hackenberg. Hackenberg arrived in Happy Valley over the summer as the top rated quarterback prospect in the country. Thus far, he has backed up the hype by throwing for 1,027 yards and 5 touchdowns in his first four games. However, he has also thrown for 4 interceptions, fumbled 3 times, and been sacked 9 times. Additionally, this weekend will be Hackenberg's first road test. In summary, he's got all the tools, but he's still a true freshman.

The Hoosiers will have to take a page out of Missouri's book and find a way to constantly pressure the young QB. There is no reason to think this won’t happen as the Penn State offensive line has looked vulnerable and despite all the heat the IU defense has taken, they currently lead the B1G in sacks per game. Who knew?

If Indiana can't pressure the quarterback, expect a lot of pitch-and-catch between Hackenberg and last year's B1G receiver of the year, Allen Robinson. You might remember him from his beastly 197 yard 3 TD performance against the Hoosiers last year. Of course this year he will have to against Indiana corner Tim Bennett who leads the entire country in passes broken up. WHO KNEW?!

#5 Stop the Three Headed Monster

Although I’ve argued the responsibility for this year’s losses should be placed primarily on the offense, there is no denying that the run defense must improve. The NIttany Lions will deploy a formidable trio of running backs against the Hoosiers. Zach Zwinak, the bruiser pictured below, will be used to pound away at the defensive interior which will then set up speedsters Akeel Lynch and Bill Belton for the big play.

As we say every week, Penn State's game plan will involve running the ball to keep it out of Indiana's hands, making the ability to stop the run crucial. Indiana does have more players ranked in the top 11 of the B1G in tackles than any other team (Cooper, Heban, Bennett, Simmons- WHO KNEW?!?), and they will all be called upon to make stops Saturday.

Prediction:

Penn State fans are legitimately terrified of what the Indiana offense might do to their defense. If they don't have any faith in their defense, then neither do I. They did shut out Kent State last week, but KSU is ranked 115 out of 123 schools in total offense (interesting to note Purdue comes in right behind them at 117). Operating under the assumption that Indiana took the bye week to get their confidence restored and learn the defense, I'm going out on a limb.

INDIANA 38 PENN STATE 17