Keys to Victory: Michigan

After spending the first part of the week wallowing in despair, I've decided to take the same approach Kevin Wilson adopted after the Missouri loss. Just act like it didn't happen. Act like the Hoosiers won and resume accordingly. Heck, one NCAA index has the Hoosiers ranked 19th in country! Here are this week's keys to the game:

#1 Get off the "Dadgum" Field

Ask Michigan fans what they are most worried about, and they will most likely tell you it has nothing to do with Indiana. They're worried about their team's affinity for turning the ball over. Michigan has more turnovers than any other B1G team through six games. A third of those turnovers have come from fumbles, and the rest can be attributed to quarterback Devin Gardner.

Gardner has already thrown 10 interceptions and has developed a reputation for making hard-to-watch decisions under pressure. The front seven of Indiana will be responsible for generating this pressure, and the defensive backs will be charged with capitalizing on errant throws. The defense shouldn't have a problem with the pressure application aspect, as Michigan's offensive line has been a woefully weak spot for the team all year. Cornerback Tim Bennett continues to lead the nation in passes defended, but needs to convert some of those into "passes intercepted" (he currently has only 1).

The other way for the Hoosier defense to get off the field is to come up with third-down stops. Perhaps the most telling statistic for the Indiana defense (because there are actually some favorable stats out there) is the rate at which they allow opponents to convert on third-down. The Hoosiers are ranked 118th in the country in first down's allowed, and their opponents are converting on nearly half of their attempts (Michigan State was 10-14 last week). Playing well on first and second down is meaningless if a defense can't make a stop on third. In the words of Kevin Wilson, "we need to get those dad gum third-down stops."

#2 Contain Devin Gardner

He's coming for you, Hoosier defense. Indiana has already been shredded by one dual-threat QB this year (James Franklin), and now they face the tall task of shutting down Devin Gardner, who is coming off a 121 yard rushing performance against Penn State.

Stopping Gardner will be paramount to the Hoosier's efforts for a couple of reasons. Having a running QB doesn't extend Michigan's rushing attack; it is their rushing attack. The actual Wolverine running backs have been awful this year. Last week's leading back, Fitzgerald Toussaint had 27 yards...on 27 carries (the worst performance in the history of UM football).*

Despite Michigan's lack of success in the running game, the Wolverines run the ball 63% of the time. Because they don't run well yet run a lot, they often end up in third and long situations, which favors the defense.**

*Just because the UM running backs have struggled so far this year, doesn't mean they won't all have career days against Indiana (see Michigan State).

**Of course, Indiana would have to stop them on that third and long.

#3 Play through the Pain

The Hoosier arial attack continues to lead in statistical categories, but has looked mediocre in each of the team's losses. The common denominator in each of those games has been the opponents' ability to pressure the QB. When asked about the QB's periodic struggles, Offensive Coordinator Seth Littrell placed the blame on the offensive line, "Some of it's just getting guys blocked up front. When guys are hitting as you throw ball, when you see guys (defensive rushers) coming free as you’re setting up to throw the football, it’s not the most comfortable situation.

This could be a severe issue for the Hoosiers. Michigan has two defensive lineman ranked in the top 3 of the B1G in sacks, Cameron Gordon and Frank Clark (pictured above). Beyond that, they are 3rd in the conference in interceptions (9), meaning their backfield will make the IU QB pay for a hurried throw.

To prevent this from being a disaster, Indiana turns to a line that Fort Wayne sportswriter Pete DiPrimio perfectly described as "a banged-up shadow of what it could have been." The Hoosiers have had an unbelievable six offensive lineman get injured this year. Wilson has been hush-hush as to whether the latest two to get injured will play Saturday, but either way the line can not make any excuses. In the words of Kevin Wilson, "we'll put another dude out there and keep going." Well put, dude.

#4 Big Day for Tre

This could be huge. Tre Roberson's role within the offense has continued to expand, and after an exceptional performance last week (94.2 quarterback rating compared to Sudfeld's 32.4), expect to see him get even more snaps this week. A lot more.

One reason being that Kevin Wilson is still looking to add to the Hoosier's rushing attack: "We've got to find a way to get some run game." With Tre showing improvement, it seems likely one way Wilson will add the run-game is by playing Roberson more and more.

The second reason I believe Tre is poised for big game has more to do with Michigan. The Wolverines struggled mightily against Penn State’s version of the hurry up offense, which pales in comparison to Indiana’s when it’s clicking. Furthermore, they struggled against the only semi-mobile QB they have faced this year against Minnesota, allowing freshman QB Mitch Leidner to rush for 66 yards. UM Defensive Coordinator Greg Mattison uses mass rotations on his defense, something that a hurry up offense makes difficult. He likes to keep bodies fresh, especially along the defensive line (much like Indiana). If Tre is given a chance, he could be the difference in the game. A hurry-up offense with a mobile QB seems to be UM’s perfect storm right now.

Will Tre capitalize and return to his role as a major factor in the offense, or will he remain a rarely used afterthought?

#5 Make Tackles

'Nuff said.

Prediction

Last week, I went with a stat-loaded and backed prediction. That didn't work. This week, I'm going on a hunch. Michigan has been week against weak opponents, hurry-up offenses, and a mobile QB. Indiana is probably weak in their eyes, but much better than the 1-6 Akron team they beat on a last second goal-line stand and the 0-5 UCONN team the edged out 24-21. A hurry-up offense with a mobile QB seems to be Michigan's kryptonite. I'm saying Tre rides his confidence from the MSU game to a career day.

INDIANA 38 MICHIGAN 35