College Bball Thread

[RaceToTheTop]

On 10/21/2023 at 7:40 PM, Loaded Chicken Sandwich said:

The record ain't good... But I know if it were Indiana.. it'd get spun it every direction possible that lead to "competitive 5-13." Which I guess since it 20 games.. 7-13? 5-15? Who knows.

I guarantee that if IU were to go 7-13 or 5-15, YOU wouldn't be calling them competitive.

[Stuhoo]

11 minutes ago, RaceToTheTop said:

Santa Clara beat UCLA 83-72 in a scrimmage.

But UCLA was without three starters 

[RaceToTheTop]

FWIW, KenPom Big Ten projections:

• Purdue 15-5
• Michigan State 13-7
• Illinois 12-8
• Wisconsin 12-8
• Maryland 12-8
• Ohio State 11-9
• Northwestern 10-10
• Michigan 9-11
• Indiana 9-11
• Iowa 9-11
• Nebraska 9-11
• Rutgers 8-12
• Penn State 6-14
• Minnesota 5-15

Warren nolan projections (note that Nolan's projections gives wins automatically to favored teams.......it doesn't include Purdue at Rutgers for some reason)

• Purdue 18 - 1
• Illinois 14 - 6
• Michigan St 13 - 7
• Indiana 11 - 9
• Ohio State 11 - 9
• Wisconsin 11 - 9
• Iowa 10 - 10
• Maryland 10 - 10
• Penn State 10 - 10
• Rutgers 9-10
• Michigan 8 - 12
• Northwestern 8 - 12
• Nebraska 6 - 14
• Minnesota 0 -20

Combination predictions of Pom, Torvik, and Nolan:

• Purdue 16.0 wins
• Michigan State 13.3 wins
• Illinois 11.3 wins
• Wisconsin 11.3 wins
• Maryland 11.0 wins
• Ohio State 11.0 wins
• Indiana 10.3 wins
• Northwestern 9.7 wins
• Iowa 9.3 wins
• Michigan 8.7 wins
•  Rutgers 8.3 wins
• Nebraska 8.0 wins
• Penn State 7.3 wins
• Minnesota 3.3 wins

 

 

[RaceToTheTop]

9 minutes ago, Stuhoo said:

But UCLA was without three starters 

Good to know.  But it's also noteworthy that Santa Clara's leading returner scoring averaged 5 points per game last year.  They lost 70% of their scoring in their four leading scorers:

19.9 ppg from Brandin Podziemski, taken 19th in the NBA draft

15.2 ppg from Carlos Stewart, who transferred to LSU

13.3 ppg from Keshawn Justice, who graduated

7.7 ppg from Parker Braun, who transferred to Kansas

[Stuhoo]

9 minutes ago, RaceToTheTop said:

FWIW, KenPom Big Ten projections:

• Purdue 15-5
• Michigan State 13-7
• Illinois 12-8
• Wisconsin 12-8
• Maryland 12-8
• Ohio State 11-9
• Northwestern 10-10
• Michigan 9-11
• Indiana 9-11
• Iowa 9-11
• Nebraska 9-11
• Rutgers 8-12
• Penn State 6-14
• Minnesota 5-15

Warren nolan projections (note that Nolan's projections gives wins automatically to favored teams.......it doesn't include Purdue at Rutgers for some reason)

• Purdue 18 - 1
• Illinois 14 - 6
• Michigan St 13 - 7
• Indiana 11 - 9
• Ohio State 11 - 9
• Wisconsin 11 - 9
• Iowa 10 - 10
• Maryland 10 - 10
• Penn State 10 - 10
• Rutgers 9-10
• Michigan 8 - 12
• Northwestern 8 - 12
• Nebraska 6 - 14
• Minnesota 0 -20

Combination predictions of Pom, Torvik, and Nolan:

• Purdue 16.0 wins
• Michigan State 13.3 wins
• Illinois 11.3 wins
• Wisconsin 11.3 wins
• Maryland 11.0 wins
• Ohio State 11.0 wins
• Indiana 10.3 wins
• Northwestern 9.7 wins
• Iowa 9.3 wins
• Michigan 8.7 wins
•  Rutgers 8.3 wins
• Nebraska 8.0 wins
• Penn State 7.3 wins
• Minnesota 3.3 wins

 

 

I don’t know who Warren Nolan is. I also don’t know what he is smoking, but I suspect it is meth.

[Hoosier1984]

13 minutes ago, Stuhoo said:

I don’t know who Warren Nolan is. I also don’t know what he is smoking, but I suspect it is meth.

You mean you don’t know the dude who is in parents basement eating a TV dinner who made these predictions?

[RaceToTheTop]

22 minutes ago, Stuhoo said:

I don’t know who Warren Nolan is. I also don’t know what he is smoking, but I suspect it is meth.

His methodology isn't that far off of Torvik or Pom.  But unlike Torvik and Pom, he isn't basing total wins on accumulated percentage.  For instance, if Pom says a team 5 games and the team is predicted to win 40% each time, Pom would predict a record of 2-3.  Nolan is just showing the predicted records if the favorite won each time.  Although I think he overrates Penn State, it's not as bad in that context.

In terms of what Nolan does, USPS is familiar with him.  His site is a great one to go to around tournament time because he creates cards that echo the information that the tournament committee will see.

In terms of his prediction of Penn State going 10-10, he predicts the following scores:

• at Purdue lose by 12
• home against Illinois lose by 1
• at Michigan State lose by 12
• at Indiana lose by 8
• at Maryland lose by 7
• home against Michigan St win by 1
• home against Wisky win by 2
• home against Indiana win by 1
• home against Maryland win by 1
• at Ohio State lose by 7
• at Iowa lose by 6
• at Rutgers lose by 4
• at Northwestern lose by 4
• home Ohio State win by 1
• home Iowa win by 2
• home Northwestern win by 4
• at Nebraska lose by 1
• at Minnesota win by 4
• home Minneosta win by 8
• at Nebraska lose by 1
• home Michigan win by 1

So he has them favored in 10, underdogs in 10.  But the average point margin is -3.8.  In games where the line is one or two points, they are favored in 7 of the 10.  That's an abnormal number and the chances of winning 70% of coin flip games is very little.  If he applied percentages instead of assigning straight wins/losses, he'd probably have them at 7-13.  

As a means of comparison, Pom predicts Penn State to finish 6-14 and an average margin of -6.4.  Torvik predicts Penn State 4-16 with an average margin of -9.2.  I don't know if nolan is so much looking at individual players on teams or more looking at how teams historically do based on their previous season's results.

[Stuhoo]

21 minutes ago, RaceToTheTop said:

His methodology isn't that far off of Torvik or Pom.  But unlike Torvik and Pom, he isn't basing total wins on accumulated percentage.  For instance, if Pom says a team 5 games and the team is predicted to win 40% each time, Pom would predict a record of 2-3.  Nolan is just showing the predicted records if the favorite won each time.  Although I think he overrates Penn State, it's not as bad in that context.

In terms of what Nolan does, USPS is familiar with him.  His site is a great one to go to around tournament time because he creates cards that echo the information that the tournament committee will see.

In terms of his prediction of Penn State going 10-10, he predicts the following scores:

• at Purdue lose by 12
• home against Illinois lose by 1
• at Michigan State lose by 12
• at Indiana lose by 8
• at Maryland lose by 7
• home against Michigan St win by 1
• home against Wisky win by 2
• home against Indiana win by 1
• home against Maryland win by 1
• at Ohio State lose by 7
• at Iowa lose by 6
• at Rutgers lose by 4
• at Northwestern lose by 4
• home Ohio State win by 1
• home Iowa win by 2
• home Northwestern win by 4
• at Nebraska lose by 1
• at Minnesota win by 4
• home Minneosta win by 8
• at Nebraska lose by 1
• home Michigan win by 1

So he has them favored in 10, underdogs in 10.  But the average point margin is -3.8.  In games where the line is one or two points, they are favored in 7 of the 10.  That's an abnormal number and the chances of winning 70% of coin flip games is very little.  If he applied percentages instead of assigning straight wins/losses, he'd probably have them at 7-13.  

As a means of comparison, Pom predicts Penn State to finish 6-14 and an average margin of -6.4.  Torvik predicts Penn State 4-16 with an average margin of -9.2.  I don't know if nolan is so much looking at individual players on teams or more looking at how teams historically do based on their previous season's results.

If Penn State goes 9-1 at home in conference? Rhodes should be conference coach of the year.

But they most certainly won’t do that.

[RaceToTheTop]

8 minutes ago, Stuhoo said:

If Penn State goes 9-1 at home in conference? Rhodes should be conference coach of the year.

But they most certainly won’t do that.

Obviously they won’t and I am working on the assumption that Nolan is using last season as a starting point for this year.

[Rico]

CBS' mid-majors:

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/best-of-the-rest-2023-24-preview-picks-predictions-for-mid-majors-and-more-teams-outside-power-conferences/

[Rico]

46

Indiana

A No. 46 ranking isn't a heavy endorsement for a program like IU, but I've warmed up to Indiana's prospects as the offseason has worn on. Getting Mackenzie Mgbako to Bloomington was a boon; let's avoid the Taco Bell police run-ins moving forward. The former Duke commit figures to have a big role, but the Hoosiers won't rely on him alone. Floor general Xavier Johnson returns for his final season and I think he'll be this team's best player. Transfer center Kel'el Ware was a McDonald's All-American a couple years back. He needs to put some of his game together, and if it happens, I'll have IU too low. Malik Reneau should be a breakout guy, regardless of scoring developments around him. https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/college-basketball-rankings-cbs-sports-top-100-and-1-best-teams-heading-into-the-2023-24-season/

[WayneFleekHoosier]

Norlander and Parrish have zero respect for Woodson and Indiana. Have to make them believers at some point.


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[go iu bb]

1 hour ago, WayneFleekHoosier said:

Norlander and Parrish have zero respect for Woodson and Indiana. Have to make them believers at some point.


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Yeah, IU has enough talent on paper to be ranked much higher than 46. The only reason they can be that low is because they don't think Woodson is a good coach.

[RaceToTheTop]

2 hours ago, WayneFleekHoosier said:

Norlander and Parrish have zero respect for Woodson and Indiana. Have to make them believers at some point.


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FWIW, Pom has Indiana at 49 and Torvik has IU at 34.  By AP voting results, IU would be 40 and by coaches poll IU would be 36.

So by most measures IU is from 34 to 49.   That's basically borderline tournament bid.  Lunardi has IU at #37, a 10 seed and one of the last four byes.

[TheWatShot]

Everyone always talks about March and how far we can realistically go, but we've got to find a way to get this program's floor to be higher than it is right now. 

[HoosierFan1994]

I know Sweet 16's aren't and shouldn't be the standard around here, but that is exactly what this program needs right now. There is something about winning two games in the NCAA Tournament and making it to another weekend of play. I'm a believer this would have happened last year with a healthy Xavier Johnson. However, the national media is weird on who they choose to respect. Illinois has ZERO business being ranked. They have Shannon and that is it. No legit PG. Hawkins is IMO one of the most overrated players in college basketball. 

Bottom line: IU has to start advancing deeper in the tournament. Many feel they underachieved the last two tournaments even though Woodson won a game each year. I love Mike Woodson and what he is doing. He's made this program respectable. He just needs a deep tournament run. 

[Demo]

100% correct. And they’re not always little.

[ebridges24]

On 10/23/2023 at 9:01 PM, RaceToTheTop said:

Santa Clara beat UCLA 83-72 in a scrimmage.

And Santa Clara lost their best player to the draft,  Brandin Podziemski.

[Class of '66 Old Fart]

Ohio’s Attorney General @DaveYostOH is threatening legal action against the NCAA, after Cincinnati transfer Aziz Bandaogo was declared ineligible.  “That decision strikes me as wrong—and likely illegal.”

[Rico]

25 minutes ago, Class of '66 Old Fart said:

Ohio’s Attorney General @DaveYostOH is threatening legal action against the NCAA, after Cincinnati transfer Aziz Bandaogo was declared ineligible.  “That decision strikes me as wrong—and likely illegal.”