Transfer Portal w IU Interest

[IUFAN1976 3,166]

15 minutes ago, IndyHoops said:

One that can shoot better than 29% from 3. Perkins is a healthy X…it will be a nice little pick up but a long way from solving the guard problem.

Spot on.  He needs to swing for the fence on both point and shooting guards.  I would be willing to take Perkins if his role was to come off the bench, just like Gallo’s should be

[IndyHoops 461]

Just now, IUFAN1976 said:

Spot on.  He needs to swing for the fence on both point and shooting guards.  I would be willing to take Perkins if his role was to come off the bench, just like Gallo’s should be

I find it hard to believe that Perkins is going to go somewhere to come off the bench. Same with Tucker. So, you have 4 of the 5 starter spots filled with a Perkins commit. I’m fine with this if the last spot is a shooter…backed up by a shooter… with a shooter backing up Perkins 

[Mike Wiemuth (iuinphilly) 48]

Btw…..my first time writing in this forum.  Found your discussions intriguing.  Hope to stick around.

[Demo 20,031]

23 minutes ago, IUFAN1976 said:

Spot on.  He needs to swing for the fence on both point and shooting guards.  I would be willing to take Perkins if his role was to come off the bench, just like Gallo’s should be

Who ya got in mind? 

[Mike Wiemuth (iuinphilly) 48]

If you look at Box Plus Minus scores from the team last year, one thing stands out…Ware will be hard to replace.  He’s a 8.5 BPM while the rest of the starters total BPM is 8.4 combined (Reneau: 4.4, Mgbako: 2.2, Gallo: 2.1, XJ: -0.3).

To get “safely” back into the tournament you’ll need a start BPM  total around 30-35.  So without Kel’el, where is that hole getting filled?  Let’s say you bump MM and MR to 15 combined (which is possible), you have to find another 15+ from the other 3 slots.  
 

Perkins is a 5 BPM.  So he’s on target, but just barely.  You might need one or two guys more in the 7 range like Nelson/Estrada from Bama.  Either way, you’ll need to hit some home runs very soon.

[HoosierHoopster 6,983]

35 minutes ago, Mike Wiemuth (iuinphilly) said:

Btw…..my first time writing in this forum.  Found your discussions intriguing.  Hope to stick around.

Welcome to posting here

[IUFAN1976 3,166]

27 minutes ago, Demo said:

Who ya got in mind? 

I’m not the coach, but Walker’s stats look appealing but he played in a mid level conference.  But it is up to MW and staff to find a point guard that is a good shooter, assist man and decent at putting pressure on the ball on the defensive end.  

[Stuhoo 80,877]

31 minutes ago, Mike Wiemuth (iuinphilly) said:

If you look at Box Plus Minus scores from the team last year, one thing stands out…Ware will be hard to replace.  He’s a 8.5 BPM while the rest of the starters total BPM is 8.4 combined (Reneau: 4.4, Mgbako: 2.2, Gallo: 2.1, XJ: -0.3).

To get “safely” back into the tournament you’ll need a start BPM  total around 30-35.  So without Kel’el, where is that hole getting filled?  Let’s say you bump MM and MR to 15 combined (which is possible), you have to find another 15+ from the other 3 slots.  
 

Perkins is a 5 BPM.  So he’s on target, but just barely.  You might need one or two guys more in the 7 range like Nelson/Estrada from Bama.  Either way, you’ll need to hit some home runs very soon.

Welcome to the board Mike!

Love me some good analytics. While Ware won’t be replaced (though Huntley-Hatfield could get close) you are gauging starting lineup analytics only. And those starters may include two new starting guards; as you said, we have work to do to upgrade those spots.

By the end of this year our bench kinda stunk. I sincerely believe we will be deeper next year, though it’s currently a guess and a wait and see exercise.

[AH1971 1,482]

2 minutes ago, IUFAN1976 said:

I’m not the coach, but Walker’s stats look appealing but he played in a mid level conference.  But it is up to MW and staff to find a point guard that is a good shooter, assist man and decent at putting pressure on the ball on the defensive end.  

Perkins has better “stats” than Walker playing in a much tougher conference.

[8bucks 6,455]

31 minutes ago, Mike Wiemuth (iuinphilly) said:

If you look at Box Plus Minus scores from the team last year, one thing stands out…Ware will be hard to replace.  He’s a 8.5 BPM while the rest of the starters total BPM is 8.4 combined (Reneau: 4.4, Mgbako: 2.2, Gallo: 2.1, XJ: -0.3).

To get “safely” back into the tournament you’ll need a start BPM  total around 30-35.  So without Kel’el, where is that hole getting filled?  Let’s say you bump MM and MR to 15 combined (which is possible), you have to find another 15+ from the other 3 slots.  
 

Perkins is a 5 BPM.  So he’s on target, but just barely.  You might need one or two guys more in the 7 range like Nelson/Estrada from Bama.  Either way, you’ll need to hit some home runs very soon.

Interesting info. Appreciate the insight. 

[Mike Wiemuth (iuinphilly) 48]

2 minutes ago, Stuhoo said:

Welcome to the board Mike!

Love me some good analytics. While Ware won’t be replaced (though Huntley-Hatfield could get close) you are gauging starting lineup analytics only. And those starters may include two newcomers; as you said, we have work to do to upgrade those spots.

By the end of this year our bench kinda stunk. I sincerely believe we will be deeper next year, though it’s currently a guess and a wait and see exercise.

Thanks.  You’ll find I tend to delve into stats a good deal.  I co-host a pod on the Back Home Network called X’s and Joes where we share our research on college basketball trends.  
 

I do think IU could really put together a pretty decent roster for next year, but it will take hitting on some upper tier dudes during a time where the staff is facing some headwinds.  Guess we’ll see if they can pull it off.

[Stuhoo 80,877]

8 minutes ago, AH1971 said:

Perkins has better “stats” than Walker playing in a much tougher conference.

For me? All of this griping about Perkins as a distance shooter is ONLY warranted if Woody installs a modern offense.

If we are going to spread the perimeter and only feed the post to kick out for moving shooters at the arc? Then true; Perkins is not the optimal get.

But if we’re going to run old-fashioned zoom actions and short frame pin-downs to get guards going downhill? Perkins is awesome, and he defends with energy and strength. Perkins is also a really good scorer in transition in a way that Leland Walker can never be.

[Mike Wiemuth (iuinphilly) 48]

6 minutes ago, Stuhoo said:

For me? All of this griping about Perkins as a distance shooter is ONLY warranted if Woody installs a modern offense.

If we are going to spread the perimeter and only feed the post to kick out for moving shooters at the arc? Then true; Perkins is not the optimal get.

But if we’re going to run old-fashioned zoom actions and short frame pin-downs to get guards going downhill? Perkins is awesome, and he defends with energy and strength. Perkins is also a really good scorer in transition in a way that Leland Walker can never be.

I do like Perkins physicality.  IU has been muscled around by B10 guards for a too long , so TP definitely helps fill that gap.  

He’s also shown his capacity to score 20+ vs many Big10 squads, including many IU guards usually struggle against….Wis, ILlL, PU, MSU.  He got to the line for 170 FT attempts this year and hit 79%. IU’s total guard core got to the line for 182 combined attempts and hit just 61%. 
 

There is plenty to like there.
 

 

[IndyHoops 461]

15 minutes ago, Stuhoo said:

For me? All of this griping about Perkins as a distance shooter is ONLY warranted if Woody installs a modern offense.

If we are going to spread the perimeter and only feed the post to kick out for moving shooters at the arc? Then true; Perkins is not the optimal get.

But if we’re going to run old-fashioned zoom actions and short frame pin-downs to get guards going downhill? Perkins is awesome, and he defends with energy and strength. Perkins is also a really good scorer in transition in a way that Leland Walker can never be.

If there are 2 bigs standing in the paint, going to be hard to get anything for guards going downhill. Also, won’t the defense just pack the paint without a threat from deep? Haven’t we already tried this? 

[IndyHoops 461]

5 minutes ago, Mike Wiemuth (iuinphilly) said:

I do like Perkins physicality.  IU has been muscled around by B10 guards for a too long , so TP definitely helps fill that gap.  

He’s also shown his capacity to score 20+ vs many Big10 squads, including many IU guards usually struggle against….Wis, ILlL, PU, MSU.  He got to the line for 170 FT attempts this year and hit 79%. IU’s total guard core got to the line for 182 combined attempts and hit just 61%. 
 

There is plenty to like there.
 

 

Perkins also played within Fran’s system. I doubt Perkins sees those numbers in Woodson’s system. The defense is nice, but again, my concern is MM at the 3 and MR at the 4 on defense. 

[Mike Wiemuth (iuinphilly) 48]

Just now, IndyHoops said:

Perkins also played within Fran’s system. I doubt Perkins sees those numbers in Woodson’s system. The defense is nice, but again, my concern is MM at the 3 and MR at the 4 on defense. 

Yup.  That would be my concern too.  I’m not sold on him being the best answer.  Remember,  most of the best options aren’t in the portal yet.  The best players won’t start deciding on schools until mid-April.  
 

It’s all about who is slotted where. If you do bring in Perkins, you have to bring in a high-capacity shooter at the 2 and move Gallo to the bench.  Perkins and Gallo starting together will invite a defense with one guy marking Mgbako and 4 guys all in the lane at all times.  Also, it could add some more pressure to have a 5 that can step out.  I can make a case for Perkins, but it then leads to other options being closed off.

[AH1971 1,482]

4 minutes ago, IndyHoops said:

Perkins also played within Fran’s system. I doubt Perkins sees those numbers in Woodson’s system. The defense is nice, but again, my concern is MM at the 3 and MR at the 4 on defense. 

Which even furthers the need for a PG who is a strong on-ball defender. Perkins was a plus defender on a bad defensive team. Guys like Malik Mack and Leland Walker were bad defenders in bad conferences. Perkins had excellent TO rate which is essential playing in Woodson’s system.

[RaceToTheTop 25,837]

9 minutes ago, IndyHoops said:

Perkins also played within Fran’s system. I doubt Perkins sees those numbers in Woodson’s system. The defense is nice, but again, my concern is MM at the 3 and MR at the 4 on defense. 

Still need to account for Tucker.  If MM is at the 3 and MR at the 4, where is Tucker?  If Tucker is at the 2?  Is he at the 3 with MM shifting to the 4 and Reneau to the 5?

 

[IndyHoops 461]

1 minute ago, RaceToTheTop said:

Still need to account for Tucker.  If MM is at the 3 and MR at the 4, where is Tucker?  If Tucker is at the 2?  Is he at the 3 with MM shifting to the 4 and Reneau to the 5?

 

That’s the million dollar question…

[IndyHoops 461]

2 minutes ago, AH1971 said:

Which even furthers the need for a PG who is a strong on-ball defender. Perkins was a plus defender on a bad defensive team. Guys like Malik Mack and Leland Walker were bad defenders in bad conferences. Perkins had excellent TO rate which is essential playing in Woodson’s system.

IU had the 83rd best defense according to KenPom. Which needs improvement….

IU had the 106th best offense….

I know what I would prioritize.