Transfer Portal w IU Interest

[AH1971]

42 minutes ago, WayneFleekHoosier said:

Fair.  But multiple schools are paying for pieces like this.  3 or 4 highly, highly ranked and expensive guys.  At some point you’d think Indiana would see that as a winning strategy and try to join the ranks of the big boys since we are right on the precipice (financially).  It’s always someone else getting the best guys.  

Multiple as in like 1 or 2 schools. We know what kind of season Kentucky had with their $22 million roster. Michigan did it right this year by A+ player evaluation. Lendeborg was obviously the headliner and costed a fortunate, but guys like Mara and Johnson were backup and rotational players at their old programs, they weren’t $3-4 million additions. Cadeau was basically run out of Chapel Hill. It also helped that they had a couple key depth pieces stick around (Tschetter, Gayle, Burnett) and got max output from their freshman.

This is hopefully where Ryan Carr earns his paycheck. Have the foresight to not only see that someone like Nick Boyd is better than Tayton Conerway, but also knows he’s worth half the price. IU isn’t going to go all-in on 2-3 players until they have a balanced roster with some continuity. Nor should they.

[WayneFleekHoosier]

4 hours ago, AH1971 said:

Multiple as in like 1 or 2 schools. We know what kind of season Kentucky had with their $22 million roster. Michigan did it right this year by A+ player evaluation. Lendeborg was obviously the headliner and costed a fortunate, but guys like Mara and Johnson were backup and rotational players at their old programs, they weren’t $3-4 million additions. Cadeau was basically run out of Chapel Hill. It also helped that they had a couple key depth pieces stick around (Tschetter, Gayle, Burnett) and got max output from their freshman.

This is hopefully where Ryan Carr earns his paycheck. Have the foresight to not only see that someone like Nick Boyd is better than Tayton Conerway, but also knows he’s worth half the price. IU isn’t going to go all-in on 2-3 players until they have a balanced roster with some continuity. Nor should they.

Johnson was a big payday. Michigan paid big. Everyone knew that roster was stacked. Especially when Yaxel opted out of the draft. I said so myself, during the portal season. Agree with Cadeau, but they retained players of high worth and added 4-5.  Roster was STACKED. 

Duke, Kansas, UConn, Louisville, UNC, heck even USC, Washington, but the list goes on and on.  Teams that PAID big for 3-5 high level guys. It’s not 1 or 2.  It’s The Who’s who. Texas Tech.  And on and on. 
 

Using Michigan as the example, they retained quality players. We don’t return any quality, unfortunately, but that should free up money. We thought last portal was expensive. lol. We needed to spend there. We paid 5 guys that literally gave us nothing.  But we are in for another rude awakening as players are asking double what they did during the expensive portal from last season.  But certain teams will end up with the top end players. It’ll be the same teams. They always figure it out. It’s our turn. 

[Kentuckysucks]

That George lettice guy says DeVries is working Bigunda heavily but will likely be too expensive.  

[AH1971]

54 minutes ago, WayneFleekHoosier said:

Johnson was a big payday. Michigan paid big. Everyone knew that roster was stacked. Especially when Yaxel opted out of the draft. I said so myself, during the portal season. Agree with Cadeau, but they retained players of high worth and added 4-5.  Roster was STACKED. 

Duke, Kansas, UConn, Louisville, UNC, heck even USC, Washington, but the list goes on and on.  Teams that PAID big for 3-5 high level guys. It’s not 1 or 2.  It’s The Who’s who. Texas Tech.  And on and on. 
 

Using Michigan as the example, they retained quality players. We don’t return any quality, unfortunately, but that should free up money. We thought last portal was expensive. lol. We needed to spend there. We paid 5 guys that literally gave us nothing.  But we are in for another rude awakening as players are asking double what they did during the expensive portal from last season.  But certain teams will end up with the top end players. It’ll be the same teams. They always figure it out. It’s our turn. 

Johnson was nowhere close to $3-4 million. Not even in the ballpark. Nonsense. Who did UConn pay high dollar to from the portal this year? Silas Demery is their only high impact transfer this year and he’s not sniffing $3-4 million. Texas Tech didn’t either. Atwell, Watts, etc all moneyball value finds in the portal. Not to mention 80% of the teams you listed failed to make the 2nd weekend if they even made the tournament at all. Spend wisely, not blindly. We spent a bunch of money on the wrong guys, that’s the problem.

[yogisballin]

Would like to land Tre Singleton. I really like that kids game. He plays hard and that’s something that I really really like.

[WayneFleekHoosier]

18 minutes ago, AH1971 said:

Johnson was nowhere close to $3-4 million. Not even in the ballpark. Nonsense. Who did UConn pay high dollar to from the portal this year? Silas Demery is their only high impact transfer this year and he’s not sniffing $3-4 million. Texas Tech didn’t either. Atwell, Watts, etc all moneyball value finds in the portal. Not to mention 80% of the teams you listed failed to make the 2nd weekend if they even made the tournament at all. Spend wisely, not blindly. We spent a bunch of money on the wrong guys, that’s the problem.

Yaxel, Boozer and Dybantsa were the only ones last year anywhere near 4 million.  And probably only Dybantsa.   
 

can’t compare 3-4 M this year to last year. That’s the mistake our staff made the previous year. We used the season before data to track a players worth.  Rates had doubled.

Rates are up again. The best teams will figure out a way to get the best players. Almost always happens that way.  We have not been forward thinking about the portal or finances.  We keep thinking rates will top off.  We again thought profit sharing would cap it. Clearly that’s not happening.  We need to become forward thinking and behave like a Kansas/Michigan/Etc.  If you get that level of talent plus a decent coach you will at minimum make the tournament and the skies the limit. 
 

I realize money doesn’t materialize from nothing but lesser earning basketball programs are spending more NIL than us on the regular. I’m not sure I understand that math.

[Uspshoosier]

8 minutes ago, WayneFleekHoosier said:

I’m not sure I understand that math

Indiana University isn’t the only school with rich alumni.   Their billionaires have decided to throw money around in this new era.   Maybe something changes and IUs rich alumni start treating it like a hobby and throws money away on kids with no return investment.  

[Golfman25]

15 minutes ago, WayneFleekHoosier said:

Yaxel, Boozer and Dybantsa were the only ones last year anywhere near 4 million.  And probably only Dybantsa.   
 

can’t compare 3-4 M this year to last year. That’s the mistake our staff made the previous year. We used the season before data to track a players worth.  Rates had doubled.

Rates are up again. The best teams will figure out a way to get the best players. Almost always happens that way.  We have not been forward thinking about the portal or finances.  We keep thinking rates will top off.  We again thought profit sharing would cap it. Clearly that’s not happening.  We need to become forward thinking and behave like a Kansas/Michigan/Etc.  If you get that level of talent plus a decent coach you will at minimum make the tournament and the skies the limit. 
 

I realize money doesn’t materialize from nothing but lesser earning basketball programs are spending more NIL than us on the regular. I’m not sure I understand that math.

Let’s see what Kansas/Michigan/Etc. do this year.   They don’t have unlimited money.  At some point this will all break and maybe we’ll go back to college basketball.  

[WayneFleekHoosier]

4 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

Indiana University isn’t the only school with rich alumni.   Their billionaires have decided to throw money around in this new era.   Maybe something changes and IUs rich alumni start treating it like a hobby and throws money away on kids with no return investment.  

I don’t think it’s that simple. At all. There are ways to donate through collectives and charities that provide tax benefits. It’s not a money pit. I think smart, business minded folk in billionaire clubs can figure it out.  

[Stuhoo]

24 minutes ago, WayneFleekHoosier said:

Yaxel, Boozer and Dybantsa were the only ones last year anywhere near 4 million.  And probably only Dybantsa.   
 

can’t compare 3-4 M this year to last year. That’s the mistake our staff made the previous year. We used the season before data to track a players worth.  Rates had doubled.

Rates are up again. The best teams will figure out a way to get the best players. Almost always happens that way.  We have not been forward thinking about the portal or finances.  We keep thinking rates will top off.  We again thought profit sharing would cap it. Clearly that’s not happening.  We need to become forward thinking and behave like a Kansas/Michigan/Etc.  If you get that level of talent plus a decent coach you will at minimum make the tournament and the skies the limit. 
 

I realize money doesn’t materialize from nothing but lesser earning basketball programs are spending more NIL than us on the regular. I’m not sure I understand that math.

Really good discussion.

I think that teams like Michigan and UConn crushed last year's portal in retrospect.

They got a home town discount on select retentions, and identified players like Mara, Morez, and Demary. They now get a discount on the highest price players because those players see the path to NBA success through their programs and can save money on the top tier signees. Just like Cignetti. And like Cignetti, Dusty May and Hurley will continue to identify mid-priced gems because they are that smart and that good. 

Whereas IU overpaid and misidentified last year. 

So IU needs to develop players like Sisley, the three freshmen, and some mid signees to get that discount and not have to overpay going forward.

[WayneFleekHoosier]

1 minute ago, Golfman25 said:

Let’s see what Kansas/Michigan/Etc. do this year.   They don’t have unlimited money.  At some point this will all break and maybe we’ll go back to college basketball.  

They’ll figure it out.  And have the best rosters. When that cap gets reached it’ll be the Dukes/UK/Kansas etc that set the cap.  While still getting the best players. UK spent 22million or so. While a few were around 12-14.  We were in the 10 range. Find out what the cap is and see if you can financially get there. If financially you can’t, then I guess you try to money ball. We spend inordinate money for Operation costs/coaches/etc. earn in the top 5-10. Find a way to translate some of that to talent. If we pay for a top 10 staff and they aren’t, that’s wasted money.  Just get it to the right players instead. 

[Home Jersey]

I do not know exactly how much IU has available to spend. I do not know exactly how much other schools have available to spend. We have reason to believe IU is at a competitive threshold monetarily. Maybe not market leading. 

I am far more concerned with / interested in the skill evaluations than the financial evaluations for next year's team. Hopefully just a few more days until we get some real news.

[Jeff Flabjohns]

Dusty said as much in a presser yesterday. The recruits are now doing homework on them, not the other way around. They’ve built a brand of success and helping guys develop, and done it quickly. 

Yaxel said he could have had way more at UK. 

Can DDv build a brand that attracts top-level talent for more than just money? Year 1 didn’t inspire any confidence 

[Stuhoo]

3 minutes ago, WayneFleekHoosier said:

They’ll figure it out.  And have the best rosters. When that cap gets reached it’ll be the Dukes/UK/Kansas etc that set the cap.  While still getting the best players. UK spent 22million or so. While a few were around 12-14.  We were in the 10 range. Find out what the cap is and see if you can financially get there. If financially you can’t, then I guess you try to money ball. We spend inordinate money for Operation costs/coaches/etc. earn in the top 5-10. Find a way to translate some of that to talent. If we pay for a top 10 staff and they aren’t, that’s wasted money.  Just get it to the right players instead. 

Paying a ton for the people who make the evaluation decisions is very much a Cignetti model; it's no wonder that Dolson likes it.

Of course, many try to emulate successful models, but the devil is in the details, and in this case, our mega-staff budget has not yet turned into evaluation success. But it's too early for me to adjudge whether this staff, which now includes Carr, is up to the task. After this year and the next should have a pretty good idea.

[WayneFleekHoosier]

3 minutes ago, Stuhoo said:

Really good discussion.

I think that teams like Michigan and UConn crushed last year's portal in retrospect.

They got a home town discount on select retentions, and identified players like Mara, Morez, and Demary. They now get a discount on the highest price players because those players see the path to NBA success through their programs and can save money on the top tier signees. Just like Cignetti. And like Cignetti, Dusty May and Hurley will continue to identify mid-priced gems because they are that smart and that good. 

Whereas IU overpaid and misidentified last year. 

So IU needs to develop players like Sisley, the three freshmen, and some mid signees to get that discount and not have to overpay going forward.

Neither were in retrospect though. I was pumping up that Michigan roster immediately. I used them to compare to us and the disparity on what we put together.  I knew that front court would be Dominant. I thought Cadeau might suck and McKinney was a 5 star “wildcard” that popped.  That roster was a monster from inception.

UConn…Karaban returns as an NBA guy. Ball returns as an absolute stud. Tarris Reed, a proven stud.  Then add Demary. And a top notch recruiting class of 5 stars.  Didn’t take much to see that vision. 
 

Go man to man on any of these rosters and you see quickly how deficient we are and have been. 
 

I need to see what the hometown discount really ends up being to retain in this world where money is king. 
 

We need some serious talent upgrades. And we will need to spend to get it.

[WayneFleekHoosier]

5 minutes ago, Stuhoo said:

Paying a ton for the people who make the evaluation decisions is very much a Cignetti model; it's no wonder that Dolson likes it.

Of course, many try to emulate successful models, but the devil is in the details, and in this case, our mega-staff budget has not yet turned into evaluation success. But it's too early for me to adjudge whether this staff, which now includes Carr, is up to the task. After this year and the next should have a pretty good idea.

Yes, this is the big debate. And also another reason last seasons portal efforts frustrated me.  Like a sailboat without a sail. Borderline complete ineptitude in every roster decision made. How can a staff full of basketball lifers in the business settle on some of the decisions they made. And then to think we are paying top dollar for that expertise.
 

In another month lots of questions will get answered. And namely, our ability to attract and recruit despite our 1st year results. That’s the biggest question/worry I have.  How far down the list do we have to go to build this roster? 

[AH1971]

1 minute ago, WayneFleekHoosier said:

Neither were in retrospect though. I was pumping up that Michigan roster immediately. I used them to compare to us and the disparity on what we put together.  I knew that front court would be Dominant. I thought Cadeau might suck and McKinney was a 5 star “wildcard” that popped.  That roster was a monster from inception.

UConn…Karaban returns as an NBA guy. Ball returns as an absolute stud. Tarris Reed, a proven stud.  Then add Demary. And a top notch recruiting class of 5 stars.  Didn’t take much to see that vision. 
 

Go man to man on any of these rosters and you see quickly how deficient we are and have been. 
 

I need to see what the hometown discount really ends up being to retain in this world where money is king. 
 

We need some serious talent upgrades. And we will need to spend to get it.

IU spent more money on their roster than UConn (by a couple million I would guess) and was in the relative ballpark of Michigan. UConn essentially added one big piece in Demery from the portal and hit well on Mullins who took less money to go to UConn. Michigan had a nice core of players on the roster and they were able to go all-in on Yaxel and absolutely crushed their evaluations of Cadeau, Johnson, and Mara, the latter two whom were <20 mpg guys at their old programs. The production from that trio far exceeded their value. 

IU overpaid for a bunch of guys that ended up being duds. Simple as that. Player evaluation is a far bigger concern of mine than it is spending. IU has enough to be more than competitive this year, if not downright good. How they spend and who they spend it on will make the difference. 

[Stuhoo]

10 minutes ago, WayneFleekHoosier said:

Neither were in retrospect though. I was pumping up that Michigan roster immediately. I used them to compare to us and the disparity on what we put together.  I knew that front court would be Dominant. I thought Cadeau might suck and McKinney was a 5 star “wildcard” that popped.  That roster was a monster from inception.

UConn…Karaban returns as an NBA guy. Ball returns as an absolute stud. Tarris Reed, a proven stud.  Then add Demary. And a top notch recruiting class of 5 stars.  Didn’t take much to see that vision. 
 

Go man to man on any of these rosters and you see quickly how deficient we are and have been. 
 

I need to see what the hometown discount really ends up being to retain in this world where money is king. 
 

We need some serious talent upgrades. And we will need to spend to get it.

I guess with Michigan I'm primarily talking about three guys; Cadeau, Morez, and Mara.

Yaxel was a very high-priced signee, but the other three weren't. They weren't low priced, but they probably were in the same general range as Reed Bailey or Conerway, and likely lower priced than Tucker Devries.

You liked the three UM guys collectively better than Bailey, Conerway, and Tucker? So did Dusty May. The key is, Dusty had a track record, a vision to sell, and therefore a choice when he was recruiting the portal. And as AH said, Dusty is a fantastic evaluator. We see it at IUFB; Cig is already raving about Boston College rb Turbo Richard. We absolutely jumped on his @$$ as soon as the portal opened, he wasn't that expensive, and I'll betcha he shows out for IU from day one. Last year Devries had little track record and a much more theoretical vision to sell. That makes the options fewer and the price tag higher. And the staff evaluations sucked last year; hopefully with time and a new GM they are world's better this time.

[Home Jersey]

Two part equation and you need both...

Accurate scouting + Sufficient money

We have the second part. Hopefully we see the first part this year.

[AH1971]

2 minutes ago, WayneFleekHoosier said:

Yes, this is the big debate. And also another reason last seasons portal efforts frustrated me.  Like a sailboat without a sail. Borderline complete ineptitude in every roster decision made. How can a staff full of basketball lifers in the business settle on some of the decisions they made. And then to think we are paying top dollar for that expertise.

Because the staff inherited a roster of zero players and had a 2-3 week period to build a brand new one.