They “Retired” Coach Woodson Thread

[Hornsby]

Realistically, what would it take to get an NCAA bid at this point (short of winning the B1G Tournament, of course). Given the lack of quality non-conference wins, does 10-10 get it done? 11-9? 9-11?
Obviously it depends somewhat on what those wins and losses are, and the B1G tourney results.
But how much margin for error do people think Woodson has to make the dance sitting at 2-1 in conference?

I'm guessing 12-8 with the next two games being must wins. You cant lose at home vs usc who is average at best. 5 of 7 on the road after that against much better teams. Probably have to beat illinois as well since they will be highly ranked next week.

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[Uspshoosier]

5 minutes ago, Hornsby said:

I'm guessing 12-8 with the next two games being must wins. You cant lose at home vs usc who is average at best. 5 of 7 on the road after that against much better teams. Probably have to beat illinois as well since they will be highly ranked next week.

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19 minutes ago, IU Prof said:

Realistically, what would it take to get an NCAA bid at this point (short of winning the B1G Tournament, of course). Given the lack of quality non-conference wins, does 10-10 get it done? 11-9? 9-11?

Obviously it depends somewhat on what those wins and losses are, and the B1G tourney results.

But how much margin for error do people think Woodson has to make the dance sitting at 2-1 in conference?

Depends on the wins.  IU could go 9-11 in conference and still make the tourney depending on the wins.   IU has 13 Q1 games left as of today with 5 of those at home. Purdue is 31 so if they get to the 30 that would be 14 Q1 games left with 6 at home.    IU could lose to USC and have enough Q1 games left that they could get in to the tourney easily.    Will that happen? Probably not but as always the path will be there for them.  Plenty of opportunities 

[coonhounds]

If we go 10-10 in conference that will invariably include some really good wins, especially in light of IU 's double plays being against Purdud, Ohio State, and Penn State, all of which are projected as tourney teams. So no doubles against MN, Wash, Rutg, USC, or Nebr; currently thought to be the lowest quality opponents. That would mean 20-12. One B1G tourney win and I think that's a yes at 21-13.
However, given IU's schedule that will be a tall order; while it's nice to see them take care of business at home against Rutgers without Harper, that's not much of a barometer.
 

Last night's game was a huge barometer for me. I will post my negative here and not ruin the hype in the post game thread. We had much better effort last night and shot the ball pretty good from 3. Rutgers was missing a good player and had a insane game from their other star. That's the positive. The bad is rutgers wasn't good other than 1 player. They couldn't rebound and I fear iu won't bring that energy or shooting to often moving forward. Ballo showing effort and doing well is a good sign. The bad is he was suspended for being a idiot and our other big went down with a injury. I worry ballo won't bring that effort to much more but hopefully I am wrong. All that and with 8 to go the game felt comfortable but yet again iu failed to officially put their opponent away imo.

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[IUHoosierJoe]

30 minutes ago, IU Prof said:

Realistically, what would it take to get an NCAA bid at this point (short of winning the B1G Tournament, of course). Given the lack of quality non-conference wins, does 10-10 get it done? 11-9? 9-11?

Obviously it depends somewhat on what those wins and losses are, and the B1G tourney results.

But how much margin for error do people think Woodson has to make the dance sitting at 2-1 in conference?

Short answer is yes, 10-10 would get us in consideration for a bid.  Keep in mind, though, we need to find 8 more conference wins.  At our current level of play, we are likely going to be favored in only 3 of our remaining games.  So, somehow finding those 5 extra wins, while requiring significant improvement in our play, would certainly improve our standing and put us in consideration for a bid.

[Hoosierfanyuh]

13 minutes ago, coonhounds said:

Last night's game was a huge barometer for me. I will post my negative here and not ruin the hype in the post game thread. We had much better effort last night and shot the ball pretty good from 3. Rutgers was missing a good player and had a insane game from their other star. That's the positive. The bad is rutgers wasn't good other than 1 player. They couldn't rebound and I fear iu won't bring that energy or shooting to often moving forward. Ballo showing effort and doing well is a good sign. The bad is he was suspended for being a idiot and our other big went down with a injury. I worry ballo won't bring that effort to much more but hopefully I am wrong. All that and with 8 to go the game felt comfortable but yet again iu failed to officially put their opponent away imo.

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I’ll add that at the 8 minute mark woody did his mass reserve sub in and we have up 8 straight points lol

[ziggyiu]

3 hours ago, Hornsby said:

I don't think it's solely on quinn but he likely has tremendous say. Plus the donors were all in on woodson or they were not giving him 6 million. Now maybe Woodson leaves on his own but forcing him out is a whole other matter.

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For sure, Quinn had tremendous sway, but that sway could diminish this winter and spring as his time as president of the board concludes this spring.

Also, the donors didn't give Woodson $6 million yesterday. That money was donated in March of last year. They've now had time to see that buying Woodson a really good roster wasn't the solution. 

All of this is to say I completely understand why we all are skeptical that IU will do the right thing, there are murmurs that suggest reasons for cautious optimism. 

[Hornsby]

For sure, Quinn had tremendous sway, but that sway could diminish this winter and spring as his time as president of the board concludes this spring.
Also, the donors didn't give Woodson $6 million yesterday. That money was donated in March of last year. They've now had time to see that buying Woodson a really good roster wasn't the solution. 
All of this is to say I completely understand why we all are skeptical that IU will do the right thing, there are murmurs that suggest reasons for cautious optimism. 

True but how well do they know bbal. They could see the recored is 11-3 and say hey that's not bad. This right now is the easiest part of the schedule but not sure they grasp that. They did think 6 million would fix ths problem after all.

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[IUHAHN81]

Look, if Woodson wins the freakin' championship then he goes out retired on top. If he sucks it up and we miss the tournament then he retires because he sucks. Either scenario, it plays into him going bye bye after this year imo. If I don't see ya in the future, I'll cya in the pasture Mike! 

[Scotty R]

3 hours ago, Papacap said:

How bad has IU fallen in terms of expectations? I have friends who thought we played well last night. In fact, they thought we played well against Winthrop. I made the comment that we haven’t beaten anyone good and got the Providence game thrown back. I’m not at the point where I’m rooting for IU to lose but really hope we don’t end up squeaking into the tourney so people can say, we’re back. Either compete for a Big 10 title or suck. 

I thought we played well for most of the game last night not so much vs Winthrop 

[Scotty R]

2 hours ago, IU Prof said:

Realistically, what would it take to get an NCAA bid at this point (short of winning the B1G Tournament, of course). Given the lack of quality non-conference wins, does 10-10 get it done? 11-9? 9-11?

Obviously it depends somewhat on what those wins and losses are, and the B1G tourney results.

But how much margin for error do people think Woodson has to make the dance sitting at 2-1 in conference?

Saw coach Brian Tonsoni who does bracketology and said it would take at least a 12-8 and maybe 13-7

[Stuhoo]

30 minutes ago, Scotty R said:

Saw coach Brian Tonsoni who does bracketology and said it would take at least a 12-8 and maybe 13-7

I like Tonsoni a lot. But he said 10 of 18 B1G teams would be in and 12 or 13 wins is way better than that. 10-10 generally works out to 9th.

[Scotty R]

1 minute ago, Stuhoo said:

I like Tonsoni a lot. But he said 10 of 18 B1G teams would be in and 12 or 13 wins is way better than that. 10-10 generally works out to 9th.

It isn't just about wins though, it is about us not having any quality wins  in the non con

[Uspshoosier]

1 hour ago, Scotty R said:

It isn't just about wins though, it is about us not having any quality wins  in the non con

The thing is moving forward it is about wins.  IU only has one more Q3 game then the rest of way meaning every game they win outside of USC will be a quality win.   Maybe some fall down however the B1G did so good in the non conference that their NET numbers for those top teams are so high it will be hard for them to fall below 30 meaning every home game IU plays will be a Q1.   Give IU the USC game and that’s 3 wins.   If and that’s a big if IU would get to 9-11 that would be 6 quality wins and 9-11 in the 2nd best conference this year.    Just remember the bottom of the bubble is at bottom for a reason.  Not many teams that low would have that many quality wins and O bad losses.   Major advantage for being the SEC or B1G the success early will get those conferences more teams in March.   Don’t have to like it but that’s what will happen.   If not IU then another B1G team that goes 9-11 or heck even 8-12 for some will make the tourney.   

[Hornsby]

The thing is moving forward it is about wins.  IU only has one more Q3 game then the rest of way meaning every game they win outside of USC will be a quality win.   Maybe some fall down however the B1G did so good in the non conference that their NET numbers for those top teams are so high it will be hard for them to fall below 30 meaning every home game IU plays will be a Q1.   Give IU the USC game and that’s 3 wins.   If and that’s a big if IU would get to 9-11 that would be 6 quality wins and 9-11 in the 2nd best conference this year.    Just remember the bottom of the bubble is at bottom for a reason.  Not many teams that low would have that many quality wins and O bad losses.   Major advantage for being the SEC or B1G the success early will get those conferences more teams in March.   Don’t have to like it but that’s what will happen.   If not IU then another B1G team that goes 9-11 or heck even 8-12 for some will make the tourney.   

I remember when Mike Davis went 10-6 in the big ten and missed the tourney. He had played a brutal nonconfernce and only went like 6-5.

 

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[Uspshoosier]

15 minutes ago, Hornsby said:

I remember when Mike Davis went 10-6 in the big ten and missed the tourney. He had played a brutal nonconfernce and only went like 7-5.

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Yeah 15-13 record not going to get you in even going 10-6 in the Big ten. 7 of the 10 big ten wins were against teams that finished .500 or below in conference. 

[Scotty R]

1 hour ago, Uspshoosier said:

The thing is moving forward it is about wins.  IU only has one more Q3 game then the rest of way meaning every game they win outside of USC will be a quality win.   Maybe some fall down however the B1G did so good in the non conference that their NET numbers for those top teams are so high it will be hard for them to fall below 30 meaning every home game IU plays will be a Q1.   Give IU the USC game and that’s 3 wins.   If and that’s a big if IU would get to 9-11 that would be 6 quality wins and 9-11 in the 2nd best conference this year.    Just remember the bottom of the bubble is at bottom for a reason.  Not many teams that low would have that many quality wins and O bad losses.   Major advantage for being the SEC or B1G the success early will get those conferences more teams in March.   Don’t have to like it but that’s what will happen.   If not IU then another B1G team that goes 9-11 or heck even 8-12 for some will make the tourney.   

I will take the word of a guy who does bracketology nationally who said we need to win at least 12 to be considered. Tonsoni actually won 1st place one year in the bracket matrix or whatever they call it.

[Uspshoosier]

3 minutes ago, Scotty R said:

I will take the word of a guy who does bracketology nationally who said we need to win at least 12 to be considered. Tonsoni actually won 1st place one year in the bracket matrix or whatever they call it.

 

[Hovadipo]

Never Been Got

[IUFAN1976]

12 hours ago, Hornsby said:

Nope it is what it is. My point was there is a very good chance he is back if he slides into the tourney. That's why the move needed to be made last year.

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I get that!  I think many of us fear that!  I trust Stuhoo and others know what they are talking about 

[Golfman25]

Once again, someone show me 10, let alone 12 Bigten wins.  With no quality non conference wins, they basically have to run the table.   Any home loss means you have to pick up an extra one on the road.  Given the Woodson era, It’s a tall order.