Bracketology and Team Resumes

[Uspshoosier]

11 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

For reference the NET Sos and non con sos is 176 and 222.   While 222 isn’t setting the world on fire for non con it’s within reason for tourney quality teams.   This will be the SOS that matter during March not KenPom 

Probably worded within reason wrong.   While 222 is noticeably high it’s not bad enough to keep a team out for their non con schedule.    You would like to see a team competing for a top 4 seed to have a better non sos.    I’m by no means saying 222 is great I just wanted to point out it isn’t in the 300’s 

[RaceToTheTop]

1 hour ago, Uspshoosier said:

Probably worded within reason wrong.   While 222 is noticeably high it’s not bad enough to keep a team out for their non con schedule.    You would like to see a team competing for a top 4 seed to have a better non sos.    I’m by no means saying 222 is great I just wanted to point out it isn’t in the 300’s 

I still think that the NCAA averaging opponent's power rating is not the proper way to figure SOS.  If SOS is used to help figure what teams should be in or out, it should measure what a team 'in' would do.  Playing a team ranked #1 and one ranked #339 will almost undoubtedly result in a team that is tournament worthy going 1-1.  Playing two teams ranked #170 will almost assuredly result in 2-0.

[Rico]

A 4 seed:

Bracketology 2023: Odds To Make The NCAA Tournament (teamrankings.com)

[Uspshoosier]

No surprise but IU fell to 23 (from 16) in the NET after they were humbled at Kansas.   IU in the Non con big 4 went 2-2 with losses on the road and Neutral court to 6 and 8 in the NET.   Road and home wins against the 37and 27 teams.    
 

IU showed that they can compete with tournament quality teams but they are not at a level where they can compete with programs that have shown to be elite and are #1 seed worthy.    Zona and Kansas were 1 seeds last year and both are well on their way to a 1 seed again.   I’m a believer in teams and programs having to take steps and not skipping steps to get to where they want to get.   Everyone agrees IU needs to be playing in these types of games but for me it’s just a reminder of how far they still have to go to get to where everyone wants them.    Before the year if I told you they would go 2-2 against top 40 teams with one of those wins on the road everyone would take it but it doesn’t work that way once people saw how they got rolled against top 8 teams they other 2 wins become a foot note.   IU is still at a point to where they need all hands on deck when they are playing the elite and still might not be enough.  Still a lot of season left to figure some things out and get healthy.     IU is a solid tourney team in my opinion just not national title contenders liked we hoped would happen 

[Uspshoosier]

IU’s NET Sos is 31 and IU’s Non con Sos is 36 according to the team sheet today.   Playing at  Kansas must be viewed as a heck of bump in their formula unless that’s a typo.   Interesting how much it changed after that game 

[RaceToTheTop]

6 hours ago, Uspshoosier said:

IU’s NET Sos is 31 and IU’s Non con Sos is 36 according to the team sheet today.   Playing at  Kansas must be viewed as a heck of bump in their formula unless that’s a typo.   Interesting how much it changed after that game 

There is such a huge gap in what the SOS's say.

NET:  IU NET SOS 31, non-con 36.

RPI:  IU 149, non-con 159

Kenpom:  IU 94, non-con 194

FWIW, Elon has a NET of 352 and Kennesaw St has a NET of 167.  Home quad 3 games are from 76 to 160, so it's not unreasonable to think Kennesaw could end up being a Q3.

[go iu bb]

8 hours ago, RaceToTheTop said:

There is such a huge gap in what the SOS's say.

NET:  IU NET SOS 31, non-con 36.

RPI:  IU 149, non-con 159

Kenpom:  IU 94, non-con 194

FWIW, Elon has a NET of 352 and Kennesaw St has a NET of 167.  Home quad 3 games are from 76 to 160, so it's not unreasonable to think Kennesaw could end up being a Q3.

I think RPI and Kenpom are still using some data from last season while NET is only the current season. IIRC, it's not until some time in January before RPI and Kenpom don't depend on the previous season.

[Uspshoosier]

1 hour ago, go iu bb said:

I think RPI and Kenpom are still using some data from last season while NET is only the current season. IIRC, it's not until some time in January before RPI and Kenpom don't depend on the previous season.

KenPom does but RPI doesn’t.   RPI is just an outdated metric that I’m glad they got rid of.   RPI is 25% your winning percentage, 50% opponents winning percentage and 25% opponents opponents winning percentage. If you play bad teams and they play bad teams your RPI Sos will be low.    RPI was easily manipulated by coaches over the years.  Net is to an extent but they still don’t know what’s in the formula to come up with the number unlike RPI which was known 

[Uspshoosier]

Where things stand the day after Christmas with the non conference schedule completed and conference play starting.   
 

IU 10-3(1-1)

NET-21

KPI-38

SOR-31

KenPom-19

Sag-19

BPI-18

SOS-58

Non Con Sos-80

Q1a-(1-3)

Win-(@35).

Losses (@5, @29, neutral-7)

Q1b-(1-0)

Win-(Home-24)

Q2-(0-0)

Q3-(1-0)

Win-(Home-76) 1 spot away from a Q2 win 

Q4-(7-0)  no losses to drag the NET down 

IU has put themselves in position to get its best seed since they were a 5 seed with Crean.    these numbers tell me they are a solid tournament team but not a top 4 seed tournament team.    As far as competing for the top of the B1G  right now as things stand going into B1G play I have IU as the 3rd best resume out of the 14 teams     Purdue (1 seed),  Wisky(last 4 seed), IU( 5 seed), Maryland is close as well being a (5 seed)      Things can and will change but as of now IU is in a really good position moving into January despite the road and neutral losses where they got smacked around.    Looking forward to seeing how the team responds with X being out      

 

[Uspshoosier]

https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/team-net-sheet?team=Indiana

[Uspshoosier]

https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/team-net-sheet?team=Kentucky

[Uspshoosier]

https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/team-net-sheet?team=Kansas

[Uspshoosier]

https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/team-net-sheet?team=Texas-Tech
 

SOS.   Yikes 

[Uspshoosier]

https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/team-net-sheet?team=Purdue

[RaceToTheTop]

4 hours ago, Uspshoosier said:

https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2023/team-net-sheet?team=Texas-Tech
 

SOS.   Yikes 

And lost both games against their only two true opponents.

Of course the same could be said for Kentucky -- while they beat Michigan as of now Michigan isn't a tournament teams.

[Gnet550]

Well that Xavier win looks even better now..especially since it was in their building

[str8baller]

2 hours ago, Gnet550 said:

Well that Xavier win looks even better now..especially since it was in their building

That’s kind of the dumb part of the NET/Quadrant thing…today won’t really change the fact that it was a Q1 win. It was pretty much assured to be that at the time.  To the extent the tournament committee puts a bunch of emphasis on the quadrant win tally versus raw predictor/SoS metrics Xavier being 20th versus 40th doesn’t help us all that much. 

[RaceToTheTop]

48 minutes ago, str8baller said:

That’s kind of the dumb part of the NET/Quadrant thing…today won’t really change the fact that it was a Q1 win. It was pretty much assured to be that at the time.  To the extent the tournament committee puts a bunch of emphasis on the quadrant win tally versus raw predictor/SoS metrics Xavier being 20th versus 40th doesn’t help us all that much. 

It does help in NET SOS which will also help in improving overall NET. It won’t have a big effect but I’m not sure one game that an opponent of yours played really should have a big effect.

FWIW, Xavier had a NET of 26 before the win.

[HoosierAloha]

What's the difference between a Q1a and Q1b win?

[TheWatShot]

7 minutes ago, HoosierAloha said:

What's the difference between a Q1a and Q1b win?