Bracketology and Team Resumes

[RaceToTheTop 26,319]

1 hour ago, go iu bb said:

WAB = Wins Above Bubble

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/first-college-basketball-net-rankings-released-by-ncaa-tennessee-is-no-1-ahead-of-auburn-gonzaga-duke/#:~:text=This year's NET rankings also,consideration by the selection committee.

"This year's NET rankings also includes a metric called "WAB" -- an acronym that stands for Wins Above Bubble -- which is a metric formulated by analytics website BartTorvik.com that now goes on the Team Sheets for consideration by the selection committee."

https://www.anonymouseagle.com/2024/7/11/24196421/ncaa-mens-basketball-selection-committee-torvik-wins-above-bubble-wab-criteria

"The important part here is where the ratings and rankings on BartTorvik.com are going on the Team Sheets, as are the Wins Above Bubble ratings and rankings. Wins Above Bubble is not all that different than the idea of Wins Above Replacement in baseball. It’s the measurement of how much better you are than a team that would be right on the cut line. How many more wins do you have than a team that would be on the edge of missing the tournament seems like an incredibly valuable measurement."

https://adamcwisports.blogspot.com/2017/01/if-ncaa-really-wants-to-replace-rpi-it.html

Thanks.  I do understand what WAB measures (and I have been running my own WAR calculations that was actually a WAB for the past couple of season).  I also understand that the NCAA is recording WAB values using Torvik's method.  What I don't understand is that on the NCAA NET page they list a 'WAB' measurement that gives a won/loss record and I have no idea how they are calculating it.  Instead what Torvik has IU as a WAB values (which is +0.20) they give a win/loss record of 10-0.

[Uspshoosier 46,416]

1 hour ago, RaceToTheTop said:

Thanks.  I do understand what WAB measures (and I have been running my own WAR calculations that was actually a WAB for the past couple of season).  I also understand that the NCAA is recording WAB values using Torvik's method.  What I don't understand is that on the NCAA NET page they list a 'WAB' measurement that gives a won/loss record and I have no idea how they are calculating it.  Instead what Torvik has IU as a WAB values (which is +0.20) they give a win/loss record of 10-0.

https://stats.ncaa.org/selection_rankings/nitty_gritties/42009/teams/590470/team_sheet

I have no clue what that record means. The page isn’t the official net team sheet and it’s not on the net sheet.    There is a non con WAB on it though 

[RaceToTheTop 26,319]

Really good day for IU's resume.  

Post Rutger:

NET  62

POM 56

Torvik 58

EvanMiya 49

WAB +.20

Non-con SOS (POM) 176

Overall SOS (POM) 108

Quad 1:  0-2  Quad 2:  1-1  Quad 3:  3-0   Quad 4:  7-0

 

Post Penn State:

NET 56 (up 6)

POM 54 (up 2)

Torvik 51 (up 7)

EvanMiya 45 (up 4)

WAB +1.0 (up +0.8).  37th overall.

Non con-SOS (POM) 177 (down 1)

Overall SOS (POM) 74  (up 34)

Quad 1:  1-3  Quad 2:  1-0  Quad 3:  4-0   Quad 4:  6-0.    One of our losses that was quad 2 moved up to quad 1 while one of our quad 4 wins moved up to quad 3.

[LIHoosier 26,572]

Damn Penn St dropped 10 spots in the NET on that loss

[MikeRoberts 7,202]

13 minutes ago, LIHoosier said:

Damn Penn St dropped 10 spots in the NET on that loss

That happens when you lose to a bad team:(

[Uspshoosier 46,416]

47 minutes ago, RaceToTheTop said:

Really good day for IU's resume.  

Post Rutger:

NET  62

POM 56

Torvik 58

EvanMiya 49

WAB +.20

Non-con SOS (POM) 176

Overall SOS (POM) 108

Quad 1:  0-2  Quad 2:  1-1  Quad 3:  3-0   Quad 4:  7-0

 

Post Penn State:

NET 56 (up 6)

POM 54 (up 2)

Torvik 51 (up 7)

EvanMiya 45 (up 4)

WAB +1.0 (up +0.8).  37th overall.

Non con-SOS (POM) 177 (down 1)

Overall SOS (POM) 74  (up 34)

Quad 1:  1-3  Quad 2:  1-0  Quad 3:  4-0   Quad 4:  6-0.    One of our losses that was quad 2 moved up to quad 1 while one of our quad 4 wins moved up to quad 3.

14 Q1 opportunities as of today left 

1 Q2 opportunity left

1 Q3 land mine left.  This is why I’m bullish on 10-10 would get IU in.  Even if some of those Q1 drop to Q2 that’s still good resume wins and the B1G teams metrics are so good now it will be hard for those top teams NET to drop well below to move them to the Q3 area for the remaining home games and no chance the road games fall NET 136 to make is a Q3.   Every B1G team is in the top 100 and there are currently 9 B1G teams currently in the top 30. lol.    Want to see something wild look at IUs rpi team sheet. IU has a top 25 rpi and their sos is 27 and non con is 59. lol.    If this was the old days IU would be in pretty good shape.  lol 

[RaceToTheTop 26,319]

7 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

14 Q1 opportunities as of today left 

1 Q2 opportunity left

1 Q3 land mine left.  This is why I’m bullish on 10-10 would get IU in.  Even if some of those Q1 drop to Q2 that’s still good resume wins and the B1G teams metrics are so good now it will be hard for those top teams NET to drop well below to move them to the Q3 area for the remaining home games and no chance the road games fall NET 136 to make is a Q3.   Every B1G team is in the top 100 and there are currently 9 B1G teams currently in the top 30. lol.    Want to see something wild look at IUs rpi team sheet. IU has a top 25 rpi and their sos is 27 and non con is 59. lol.    If this was the old days IU would be in pretty good shape.  lol 

Torvik has a projection that if IU on the current data, IU could be 19-12 and 10-10 in conference and that all 12 losses would be quad 1....4-12 in quad 1, 4-0 in quad 2, 11-0 in quad 3 and 4.  If that were to happen, I can't imagine IU being left out if they had no quad 2 losses.

That said, NET rankings will shuffle around and regression says some of the teams currently Q1 will fall to Q2.

USC at IU would be the single quad 3, yes?  USC currently at 94.

[Uspshoosier 46,416]

3 minutes ago, RaceToTheTop said:

USC at IU would be the single quad 3, yes?  USC currently at 94.

Yep 

[spe317 612]

Losing to USC at home may stick a fork in our hopes without some bigger quad 1 wins imo. 

[Hoosierfanyuh 2,497]

USC and Washington are two teams i consider we absolutely cannot lose to

[Hoosierfan1901 6,412]

Took an ~18% increase to 69.7% (nice) to make the tournament on TeamRankings. They have us at most likely #11 seed, but currently has us the #10 seed in their main bracket. Would either face Wisconsin, Baylor,  St. John’s or Clemson in the first round.

[Hoosierfanyuh 2,497]

Just have to keep winning, it’s that simple 

[RaceToTheTop 26,319]

On 1/5/2025 at 10:39 PM, Hoosierfanyuh said:

USC and Washington are two teams i consider we absolutely cannot lose to

I wouldn't say that about Washington.  They are NET 91 which is a pretty high quad 2 game on the road.

[RaceToTheTop 26,319]

After the USC win, IU moved up 4 spots on Pom to 50 and 6 spots on Torvik to 45.

[Uspshoosier 46,416]

IU has 11 Q1 opportunities in a row starting Saturday.  6 of their home games left are currently all Q1 opportunities.  11 of the remaining 15 conference games are against the NET top 30.   Personally I don’t feel any B1G team is head and shoulders above the rest especially when they play on the road.  IU will have every opportunity to finish in the top of the B1G.  Finishing top of the B1G in my opinion doesn’t guarantee you automatically contend for a national title or    I don’t see any B1G team  making a deep run in March.   Most of you probably get sick of me saying conferences earn bids in the non conference however the B1G this year is a prime example of that.  People can get on the B1G for lack of teams in the AP top 25(means nothing for selection in March) however the B1G currently has 9 teams in the top 30 of the NET.  Even if some of them drop out of the top 30 they will still be in the Q2a range.    13 Q1 and 2 Q2 games left meaning every win will be a resume win and any loss will not put a black eye on the resume.   Interested to see how this ends up 

[Uspshoosier 46,416]

In the B1G or SEC a team can move the needle big time with a 3 or 4 game win streak against tournament quality teams.  Teams will shoot to the seed list. A team could lose 4 straight and then get hot a stack 4Q1 wins in a row.   Small example of this was before the Penn St win IU game was probably 8th team out on most bracketologist.   After just 1 Q1 road win if you look at most they already have made their way onto most brackets First 4 out.  Just imagine how far up a team would move up stacking 4Q1 games in row 

[Hoosierfan1901 6,412]

https://bracketologists.com/team/indiana-hoosiers

[Hoosierfan1901 6,412]

Opportunities here on out for the regular season + BTT

[Uspshoosier 46,416]

Lunardi had IU as his last team in as of today.  I personally have them still out but in the First 4 out.   Road wins move the needle.

3 observations I’ve learned from the NET since it’s been put into place 

1.  If you play really bad teams you better beat them by 100 or you could still drop 

2.  If you are going to get blown out, do it on the road against good teams and you won’t be penalized that much 

3.  Winning road games moves the needle 

 

[HoosierHoopster 7,237]

12 hours ago, Uspshoosier said:

IU has 11 Q1 opportunities in a row starting Saturday.  6 of their home games left are currently all Q1 opportunities.  11 of the remaining 15 conference games are against the NET top 30.   Personally I don’t feel any B1G team is head and shoulders above the rest especially when they play on the road.  IU will have every opportunity to finish in the top of the B1G.  Finishing top of the B1G in my opinion doesn’t guarantee you automatically contend for a national title or    I don’t see any B1G team  making a deep run in March.   Most of you probably get sick of me saying conferences earn bids in the non conference however the B1G this year is a prime example of that.  People can get on the B1G for lack of teams in the AP top 25(means nothing for selection in March) however the B1G currently has 9 teams in the top 30 of the NET.  Even if some of them drop out of the top 30 they will still be in the Q2a range.    13 Q1 and 2 Q2 games left meaning every win will be a resume win and any loss will not put a black eye on the resume.   Interested to see how this ends up 

So our next 4 are @Iowa, vs. ranked Illinois, @OSU and @NW.  That's a tough stretch. But doesn't seem like any can be called "must wins" (though we really need at least 1, the home game, to have any belief the team will ultimately make it) given the number of Q1 games remaining after that stretch. Just the next 4 has MD, @PU, @Wisc, and vs. ranked (currently) UM. And that just continues in the next 4, against 3 currently ranked teams. Pretty crazy how stacked the B1G is this season.