RaceToTheTop Posted January 18 Posted January 18 Seems very weird to me that IU only moved up one spot in NET with the win at Ohio State. Team sheet is showing good results based metrics (wins/losses) but not good predictive based metrics. Results based: KPI 28, SOR 35, WAB 35 Predictive based: BPI 61, POM 58, T-Rank 62 FWIW, Torvik's ten most recent resumes similar to Indiana's current resume saw five teams in the tournament and five teams miss. The ones that did make it were seeded 10 to 12 except for Boston College in 2009 which had a 7 seed (probably well over seeded). The teams in the last 10 years with the resumes most similar to Indiana were Arizona State in 2023 (11 seed, play in round, won play in game, lost round of 64); Michigan State 2021 (11th seed, play in round, lost); and TCU 2019 (missed tournament). Quote
HoosierHoopster Posted January 18 Posted January 18 41 minutes ago, RaceToTheTop said: Seems very weird to me that IU only moved up one spot in NET with the win at Ohio State. Team sheet is showing good results based metrics (wins/losses) but not good predictive based metrics. Results based: KPI 28, SOR 35, WAB 35 Predictive based: BPI 61, POM 58, T-Rank 62 FWIW, Torvik's ten most recent resumes similar to Indiana's current resume saw five teams in the tournament and five teams miss. The ones that did make it were seeded 10 to 12 except for Boston College in 2009 which had a 7 seed (probably well over seeded). The teams in the last 10 years with the resumes most similar to Indiana were Arizona State in 2023 (11 seed, play in round, won play in game, lost round of 64); Michigan State 2021 (11th seed, play in round, lost); and TCU 2019 (missed tournament). In summary, we’ve got work to do Quote
Uspshoosier Posted January 21 Author Posted January 21 https://x.com/thefieldof68/status/1881469713253024008?s=46 RaceToTheTop 1 Quote
RaceToTheTop Posted January 21 Posted January 21 4 hours ago, Uspshoosier said: https://x.com/thefieldof68/status/1881469713253024008?s=46 I simply don't get how they could be as high as a NET 24. Four quad 1 games, all losses (including one at home). No wins in road games. 8 of their 14 wins are quad 4. Horrible, horrible non-conference SOS (329 NET, 342 RPI, 364 POM). I know the video says they have some holes in their resume, but IMO NET is taking efficiency measures way out of wack. Quote
RaceToTheTop Posted January 21 Posted January 21 On the most up to date Bracketmatrix, IU is in 27 of the 69 (39%) brackets submitted and overall would be the second team out. Also worth mentioning that it improves to 25 out of 47 (53%) if you only include brackets that were submitted after the Ohio State game. i would also suggest (and ask USPS to weigh in) that there will be fewer seed stealers this year as the power 5 teams are currently looking to have so many at large bids and not many mid majors are going to have a team that would be an at large if they don’t win their tournament. Quote
Uspshoosier Posted January 21 Author Posted January 21 7 hours ago, RaceToTheTop said: I simply don't get how they could be as high as a NET 24. Four quad 1 games, all losses (including one at home). No wins in road games. 8 of their 14 wins are quad 4. Horrible, horrible non-conference SOS (329 NET, 342 RPI, 364 POM). I know the video says they have some holes in their resume, but IMO NET is taking efficiency measures way out of wack. Yeah Maryland needs to win some road games and some others. I just posted that for the whole video not Maryland specific. Quote
Uspshoosier Posted January 21 Author Posted January 21 6 hours ago, RaceToTheTop said: i would also suggest (and ask USPS to weigh in) that there will be fewer seed stealers this year as the power 5 teams are currently looking to have so many at large bids and not many mid majors are going to have a team that would be an at large if they don’t win their tournament There will still be bid stealers out there. Not only mid major teams but high major teams like NC State last year that wouldn’t have made it if they didn’t have a ridiculous March run. I haven’t really dove that deep into the mid majors but there will be some out there who get high major bubble teams will be rooting for in their tourney Quote
IUHoosierJoe Posted January 21 Posted January 21 10 hours ago, RaceToTheTop said: I simply don't get how they could be as high as a NET 24. Four quad 1 games, all losses (including one at home). No wins in road games. 8 of their 14 wins are quad 4. Horrible, horrible non-conference SOS (329 NET, 342 RPI, 364 POM). I know the video says they have some holes in their resume, but IMO NET is taking efficiency measures way out of wack. They had some extreme routs early in the season that are still helping their NET. Quote
RaceToTheTop Posted January 21 Posted January 21 3 hours ago, Uspshoosier said: There will still be bid stealers out there. Not only mid major teams but high major teams like NC State last year that wouldn’t have made it if they didn’t have a ridiculous March run. I haven’t really dove that deep into the mid majors but there will be some out there who get high major bubble teams will be rooting for in their tourney On the high major end I see less chance of bid stealers because of the number of teams that would already be at large bids. Jeff Flabjohns 1 Quote
RaceToTheTop Posted January 21 Posted January 21 Lunardi’s bracket this morning has IU as the last team in. cybergates 1 Quote
Uspshoosier Posted January 21 Author Posted January 21 https://x.com/bracketguydave/status/1881832434733605324?s=46 Stuhoo and RaceToTheTop 2 Quote
RaceToTheTop Posted January 22 Posted January 22 2 hours ago, Uspshoosier said: https://x.com/bracketguydave/status/1881832434733605324?s=46 Yeah, IU seems very on the bubble right now in most brackets. My completely not fully researched ranking of Big Ten resumes: Purdue Michigan State Illinois Michigan Oregon Wisconsin UCLA Maryland Indiana Nebraska Ohio State Northwestern Iowa Penn State USC Rutgers Washington Minnesota Quote
Uspshoosier Posted January 22 Author Posted January 22 7 minutes ago, RaceToTheTop said: Yeah, IU seems very on the bubble right now in most brackets. My completely not fully researched ranking of Big Ten resumes: Purdue Michigan State Illinois Michigan Oregon Wisconsin UCLA Maryland Indiana Nebraska Ohio State Northwestern Iowa Penn State USC Rutgers Washington Minnesota Oregon would be higher. They have 7 Q1 wins with USC 1 spot away from having 8 Q1 wins ALASKA HOOSIER and RaceToTheTop 2 Quote
Uspshoosier Posted January 24 Author Posted January 24 https://x.com/thefieldof68/status/1882922327006179339?s=12 Quote
Uspshoosier Posted January 26 Author Posted January 26 Soul crushing loss for the Hoosiers. Math is still there for them but after that one I’m guessing they will fade out of the picture. Mediocre bubble teams are mediocre for w reason and seem to find a way to lose games the should have won. This will haunt them fwgreenway, woodenshoemanHoosierfan and lillurk 2 1 Quote
cybergates Posted January 27 Posted January 27 6 hours ago, Uspshoosier said: Soul crushing loss for the Hoosiers. Math is still there for them but after that one I’m guessing they will fade out of the picture. Mediocre bubble teams are mediocre for w reason and seem to find a way to lose games the should have won. This will haunt them Team Cast has us needing to win 3 games in the B1G tourney to get in now. Quote
woodenshoemanHoosierfan Posted January 27 Posted January 27 Team Cast has us needing to win 3 games in the B1G tourney to get in now.We may not have to worry about that with the way things are going. We may be one of the bottom 4Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk cybergates 1 Quote
Uspshoosier Posted January 27 Author Posted January 27 10 hours ago, cybergates said: Team Cast has us needing to win 3 games in the B1G tourney to get in now. That would depend on how many games they win during the regular season. Math is still there for them to make it without making a run in the B1G tourney however highly unlikely with the gauntlet they have in front of them Quote
cybergates Posted January 27 Posted January 27 46 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said: That would depend on how many games they win during the regular season. Math is still there for them to make it without making a run in the B1G tourney however highly unlikely with the gauntlet they have in front of them Correct. Teamcast has us winning 3 more games in the regular season to be 8-12 in the B1G and then requiring the 3 games in the B1G tourney to be the last of the last 4 in (4th). Quote
Uspshoosier Posted January 29 Author Posted January 29 https://x.com/TheAndyKatz/status/1884254185543389403 a little more on the WAB and NET. Always nice to get more info from the people the help create it. If you listen to it you will notice some notes that I say all the time when dealing with the NET, Quads and such Quote
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