Bracketology and Team Resumes

[Motley's 25]

2 hours ago, HoosierHoopster said:

So our next 4 are @Iowa, vs. ranked Illinois, @OSU and @NW.  That's a tough stretch. But doesn't seem like any can be called "must wins" (though we really need at least 1, the home game, to have any belief the team will ultimately make it) given the number of Q1 games remaining after that stretch. Just the next 4 has MD, @PU, @Wisc, and vs. ranked (currently) UM. And that just continues in the next 4, against 3 currently ranked teams. Pretty crazy how stacked the B1G is this season. 

I really believe we need to win two of the next three road games to climb into consideration. As others have noted, road games move the needle. Our best win, PSU, just got worse and they've fallen to NET 51. IA, OSU and NW are the most winnable road games until March against WA. OSU would be a very good win for the rankings and they look beatable. 

[Uspshoosier 46,082]

10 minutes ago, Motley's said:

I really believe we need to win two of the next three road games to climb into consideration. As others have noted, road games move the needle. Our best win, PSU, just got worse and they've fallen to NET 51. IA, OSU and NW are the most winnable road games until March against WA. OSU would be a very good win for the rankings and they look beatable. 

IU is already in the field for some bracketologist.  For me they are in the first 4 out range.  If they win 2 of the next 3 roads games they will in the field and probably in the first 4 bye range which will keep them out do the Last 4 in range 

[Motley's 25]

4 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

IU is already in the field for some bracketologist.  For me they are in the first 4 out range.  If they win 2 of the next 3 roads games they will in the field and probably in the first 4 bye range which will keep them out do the Last 4 in range 

But that's the current status following the friendliest part of the schedule. There are losses to come. They can't be in the NET 50s when they hit the Purdue-MSU stretch (3 on the road), when they could easily go 0-4. They need to climb below NET 40 to feel comfortable. 

[Uspshoosier 46,082]

1 minute ago, Motley's said:

But that's the current status following the friendliest part of the schedule. There are losses to come. They can't be in the NET 50s when they hit the Purdue-MSU stretch (3 on the road), when they could easily go 0-4. They need to climb below NET 40 to feel comfortable. 

They could still be in the 50s during that stretch.   Losing on the road especially to top teams won’t drop teams much.   Still have to win games however losing to NET top 30 teams isn’t going to drastically drop them out of the conversation.  

[Class of '66 Old Fart 85,064]

5 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

They could still be in the 50s during that stretch.   Losing on the road especially to top teams won’t drop teams much.   Still have to win games however losing to NET top 30 teams isn’t going to drastically drop them out of the conversation.  

I can understand losing on the road to a top 30 NET team by a narrow margin not hurting your standing.  But if the spread is single digits and you get waxed by 20+ how and why does that not hurt you?  You stunk.  Shouldn't you be penalized?

[IUHoosierJoe 1,172]

3 hours ago, Uspshoosier said:

Lunardi had IU as his last team in as of today.  I personally have them still out but in the First 4 out.   Road wins move the needle.

3 observations I’ve learned from the NET since it’s been put into place 

1.  If you play really bad teams you better beat them by 100 or you could still drop 

2.  If you are going to get blown out, do it on the road against good teams and you won’t be penalized that much 

3.  Winning road games moves the needle 

 

All true about the NET.  Another thing, even if you lose, staying close against really good teams helps, especially on the road.

[DoctorP 1,120]

29 minutes ago, IUHoosierJoe said:

All true about the NET.  Another thing, even if you lose, staying close against really good teams helps, especially on the road.

Feels like a while since we’ve done that. 

[Uspshoosier 46,082]

20 minutes ago, Class of '66 Old Fart said:

I can understand losing on the road to a top 30 NET team by a narrow margin not hurting your standing.  But if the spread is single digits and you get waxed by 20+ how and why does that not hurt you?  You stunk.  Shouldn't you be penalized?

Probably but the NET doesn’t work that way.  Penn St got blasted by Illinois and only dropped 3 or 4 spots.  It would be nice to see how the NET works however the ncaa doesn’t give that info.  I’m not saying it’s right or wrong I’m just telling you that how  it works.    Rpi was easy manipulated by teams and they were hoping the net wouldn’t be but with anything teams are figuring out how to.   You smash your non conference buy games and steal a couple in the non conference against teams with pulse and your NET should be really good heading into conference play where you have wiggle room to take some losses.   Ius problem is they haven’t figured out how to blow out terrible teams early so their NET is low 30s.  Maryland and IUs resumes are not that far apart however Maryland is 23 and IU is in the 50s.   Maryland just lost 2 road games in a row with one coming at Washington and they only lost 5 spots 18 to 23.  

[RaceToTheTop 26,155]

7 hours ago, Uspshoosier said:

Probably but the NET doesn’t work that way.  Penn St got blasted by Illinois and only dropped 3 or 4 spots.  It would be nice to see how the NET works however the ncaa doesn’t give that info.  I’m not saying it’s right or wrong I’m just telling you that how  it works.    Rpi was easy manipulated by teams and they were hoping the net wouldn’t be but with anything teams are figuring out how to.   You smash your non conference buy games and steal a couple in the non conference against teams with pulse and your NET should be really good heading into conference play where you have wiggle room to take some losses.   Ius problem is they haven’t figured out how to blow out terrible teams early so their NET is low 30s.  Maryland and IUs resumes are not that far apart however Maryland is 23 and IU is in the 50s.   Maryland just lost 2 road games in a row with one coming at Washington and they only lost 5 spots 18 to 23.  

Personally, I think getting blasted on the road by a pretty good team and dropping 3 or 4 spots is a pretty on the money drop.  At least in terms of WAB, that's what happens.  

[RaceToTheTop 26,155]

Current WAB values for the rest of the season for IU (the plus WAB numbers are what IU would get for winning;  minus WAB is what gets subtracted for a loss).  Obviously the values will get changed based on the play of their opponents.

• at Iowa win +.65, loss -.35
• Illinois win +.69, loss -.31
• at Ohio State win +.59, loss -.41
• at Northwestern win +.59, loss -.41
• Maryland win +.52, loss -.48
• at Purdue win +.79, loss -.21
• at Wisconsin win +.78, loss -.22
• Michigan win +.66, loss -.34
• at Michigan State win .81, loss -.19
• UCLA win  +.48, loss -.52
• Purdue win +.53, loss -.47
• Penn State win +.30, loss -.70
• at Washington win +.33, loss -.67
• at Oregon win +.75, loss -.25
• Ohio State win +.35, loss -.65

Based on WAB, a bubble team would win go 6-9 against that slate.  Since IU is currently 13-3 and 4-1 in conference, that would put the Hoosiers at 19-12 overall and 10-10 in conference.  IU's current WAB is +1.1;  technically an overall WAB of 0 should put you firmly on the bubble but from my experience calculating WAR from last year (which comes out very similarly to WAB), a number of +1.0 is more likely than not to put you in.  So I would say that a 19-12 and 10-10 record puts IU squarely on the bubble while a 20-11 and 11-9 conference record most likely has IU in.

FWIW, IU's WAB of +1.1 right now ranks 37th.  For all intents and purposes, you can project their season ending WAB by taking their final season number of wins -19 and then adding 1.1. You want to have a positive number at the end of the year and the more above one you are, the safer you are.

 

[RaceToTheTop 26,155]

Just based on my WAR from last year, entering the Big Ten conference tournament:

18-13, 9-11 in conference or worse:  not in

19-12, 10-10 in conference:  sweating out the selection;  my projection is slightly out but not out of the question.

20-11, 11-9 in conference;  in as a 10 or 11, either as last four byes or last four in

21-10, 12-8 in conference;  9 seed

22-9, 13-7 in conference:  6 or 7 seed

23-8, 14-6 in conference;  4 seed

24-7, 15-5 in conference;  3 seed

now just getting silly.

25-6, 16-4 in conference; 2 seed

26-5, 17-3 in conference or better;  1 seed