Bracketology and Team Resumes

[Hovadipo 54,002]

14 hours ago, Uspshoosier said:

https://x.com/roccomiller8/status/1749221732265976201?s=46

I know you're a Rocco guy, but are you personally feeling the same as him here? Can they afford to drop one to anyone but Drake or Bradley?

[Uspshoosier 44,700]

5 minutes ago, Hovadipo said:

I know you're a Rocco guy, but are you personally feeling the same as him here? Can they afford to drop one to anyone but Drake or Bradley?

Yeah I’m not on the same page as him just yet.   They could lose  at Southern Illinois and I think they could still get an at-large as long as they win home games against Drake and Bradley.    Southern is a Q2 game on the road as of now.    For me ISU has to win the homes games against Drake and Bradley and take no more then 1 loss to the remaining Q3 and Q4 games.  Problem is the got 9 of those left and only 3 Q2 games.    You going to the Drake game?   I’m thinking of going 

[Hovadipo 54,002]

4 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

You going to the Drake game?   I’m thinking of going

I'd like to, but making sure the evening tip-off works schedule-wise. Another national TV game for the fellas.

[Uspshoosier 44,700]

Now begins IUs final grasps at turning the season around.  Now comes a stretch of games that are more winnable then the previous games.    IU just played 3 straight upper bracket teams and clearly the 3 best teams in the B1G.  While it would have been nice to steal one of those games IU has shown all year they are not on that level.  6 of their losses are to Q1a teams and most of those are double digit losses.   
 IU has 10 Q1 and Q2 games left and 1 Q3 game left.   8 of the 11 games are to teams with a NET of 58 or worse with only 3 of them against top 30 NET.   While it doesn’t look good the schedule sets up nicely for them to make a push.  6 home games and 5 road games left.    Need to beat some tournament quality teams and get that NET down to at least the 70s.    One positive for IU is their overall SOS is 19 with a non con sos 134 

[str8baller 4,917]

29 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

IU has 10 Q1 and Q2 games left and 1 Q3 game left.   8 of the 11 games are to teams with a NET of 58 or worse with only 3 of them against top 30 NET.   While it doesn’t look good the schedule sets up nicely for them to make a push.  6 home games and 5 road games left.    Need to beat some tournament quality teams and get that NET down to at least the 70s.    One positive for IU is their overall SOS is 19 with a non con sos 134 

Approaching it from a more conventional outlook, I’d say even with our crappy metrics getting to 20 wins would give us a good shot at the tourney. That would mean 8-3 on the way out from this point.  
 

At Purdue is almost a certain loss. Wisconsin and MSU at home plus @OSU and @Minny (tough place to play) and @ Maryland are probably coin flips at best.   
 

Both the efficiency rankings and eye test suggest Indiana isn’t going to run that set-up successfully. On the other hand, that’s why they play the games.  
 

Maybe winning 7/11 games and going on a two game run in the BTT like Woody’s first year gets it done?

[Uspshoosier 44,700]

3 minutes ago, str8baller said:

Maybe winning 7/11 games and going on a two game run in the BTT like Woody’s first year gets it done?

Possibly it all depends on what the bottom of the bubble looks like.   Main thing is they got to beat some tournament quality teams and avoid  losses to Penn St.   Nebraska is getting blown out on the road and Ohio St is struggling.   IU will have plenty of opportunities.  Let’s see how they do against other teams that have flaws in the conference.   For me the Northwestern home game and Sparty home game are big ones because they are tourney teams in the 7-10 seed range.    IU hasn’t had many games against tournament quality teams that are at the bottom of bracket. 

[Stuhoo 78,020]

2 hours ago, str8baller said:

Approaching it from a more conventional outlook, I’d say even with our crappy metrics getting to 20 wins would give us a good shot at the tourney. That would mean 8-3 on the way out from this point.  
 

At Purdue is almost a certain loss. Wisconsin and MSU at home plus @OSU and @Minny (tough place to play) and @ Maryland are probably coin flips at best.   
 

Both the efficiency rankings and eye test suggest Indiana isn’t going to run that set-up successfully. On the other hand, that’s why they play the games.  
 

Maybe winning 7/11 games and going on a two game run in the BTT like Woody’s first year gets it done?

For me I think it all starts with getting Ware back, and according to Woody he did non-contact this week.

As bad as our guards have been, it seems like X has dug out of complete disaster mode and maybe Leal is a do-no-harm backup option.

Our schedule lines up; now we need to beat Iowa and PSU at home. If we don’t win those two it’s looking incredibly grim.

[realTomCrean 1,482]

IU currently: Q1: 0-7, Q2: 2-1, Q3/4: 10-0

Remaining games: Q1: 4, Q2: 6, Q3/4: 1

Home: 6 games, Away: 5

Q1 Games: MSU, Wisconsin, @PU, @OSU -- have to go 2-2 at minimum for any chance at a bid in my estimation. Interested to hear USPS take on if IU finishes 12-8 (20-11) what the chances look like

[Uspshoosier 44,700]

28 minutes ago, realTomCrean said:

Interested to hear USPS take on if IU finishes 12-8 (20-11) what the chances look like

 It would depend on how the rest of the bubble looks and also which games they won.   If they went 12-8 but didn’t beat any tournament quality teams then they are probably not going to get in however if they beat Purdue on the road, Wisky at home, Sparty and Northwestern they could possibly get in with less then 12 games.    A lot of typing to say not enough information at this time to tell you if 20-11 would get them in 

[fwgreenway 490]

Maybe this should be in a prediction thread, but I'm curious to see what Uspshoosier thinks if IU wins the next 2 (Iowa & Penn St) then loses the next 2 OSU & PU with a record of 6-7 in the BIG and then wins the remaining 7 games and finishes 13-7 in the BIG. Not sure why but I got that feeling.

[Uspshoosier 44,700]

29 minutes ago, fwgreenway said:

Maybe this should be in a prediction thread, but I'm curious to see what Uspshoosier thinks if IU wins the next 2 (Iowa & Penn St) then loses the next 2 OSU & PU with a record of 6-7 in the BIG and then wins the remaining 7 games and finishes 13-7 in the BIG. Not sure why but I got that feeling.

They would be in.   That would include a massive home win vs Wisky and 2 other home wins against Northwestern and Sparty plus 3 more road wins.    They would be in and the board wouldn’t be sweating on selection Sunday if that were to happen.    Personally I don’t see them winning 7 straight 

[Uspshoosier 44,700]

IU currently has an overall SOS of 18.     If they got anywhere near the cut line that will be a huge positive for them when compared to other bubble teams 

[WayneFleekHoosier 47,517]

Compared to where we stand now, 12-8 finish would be a miracle.  That’s my best hope as of today and seeing this team play 20 games. 

[RaceToTheTop 24,551]

My current WAR rankings and # of bids that each conference deserves (this is prior to the New Mexico/Nevada game):

Multi-bid leagues:

• AAC (2):  Florida Atlantic (18), Memphis (33)
• ACC (3):  Clemson (26), Duke (32), Virginia (44)
• Big 10 (4):  Purdue (1), Wisconsin (6), Illinois (23), Northwestern (28)
• Big 12 (10):  Houston (3), Kansas (5), Texas Tech (11), Iowa St (24), Baylor (27), Oklahoma (29), Kansas St (35), TCU (40), Texas (47), Cincinnati (49)
• Big East (4):  U Conn (2), Marquette (13), Creighton (31), St. John's (42)
• MWC (6):  Utah St (8), San Diego St (12), New Mexico (18), Nevada (22), Colorado St (30), Boise St (43)
• Pac 12 (5):  Arizona (7), Utah (34), Oregon (38), Colorado (39), Washington St (48)
• SEC (9):  Ole Miss (10), South Carolina (14), Auburn (15), Tennessee (16), Alabama (17), Kentucky (21), Florida (37), Miss St (41), Georgia (45)

Teams with one bid that are above the at-large cut line:

Atlantic 10:  Dayton (9),  Ivy:  Princeton (35), MVC:  Indiana St (20), OVC:  McNeese St (46),  WAC:  Grand Canyon (25)

Last four byes:  Mississippi St, St. John's, Boise St, Virginia

Last four in:  Georgia, Texas, Washington St, Cincinnati

First four out:  BYU, Butler, Pittsburgh, Michigan St

 

[Uspshoosier 44,700]

1 hour ago, RaceToTheTop said:

My current WAR rankings and # of bids that each conference deserves (this is prior to the New Mexico/Nevada game):

Multi-bid leagues:

• AAC (2):  Florida Atlantic (18), Memphis (33)
• ACC (3):  Clemson (26), Duke (32), Virginia (44)
• Big 10 (4):  Purdue (1), Wisconsin (6), Illinois (23), Northwestern (28)
• Big 12 (10):  Houston (3), Kansas (5), Texas Tech (11), Iowa St (24), Baylor (27), Oklahoma (29), Kansas St (35), TCU (40), Texas (47), Cincinnati (49)
• Big East (4):  U Conn (2), Marquette (13), Creighton (31), St. John's (42)
• MWC (6):  Utah St (8), San Diego St (12), New Mexico (18), Nevada (22), Colorado St (30), Boise St (43)
• Pac 12 (5):  Arizona (7), Utah (34), Oregon (38), Colorado (39), Washington St (48)
• SEC (9):  Ole Miss (10), South Carolina (14), Auburn (15), Tennessee (16), Alabama (17), Kentucky (21), Florida (37), Miss St (41), Georgia (45)

Teams with one bid that are above the at-large cut line:

Atlantic 10:  Dayton (9),  Ivy:  Princeton (35), MVC:  Indiana St (20), OVC:  McNeese St (46),  WAC:  Grand Canyon (25)

Last four byes:  Mississippi St, St. John's, Boise St, Virginia

Last four in:  Georgia, Texas, Washington St, Cincinnati

First four out:  BYU, Butler, Pittsburgh, Michigan St

 

Acc should have North Carolina as well.   They are a 1 seed for me as of today 

[raorIU 306]

1 hour ago, RaceToTheTop said:

My current WAR rankings and # of bids that each conference deserves (this is prior to the New Mexico/Nevada game):

Multi-bid leagues:

• AAC (2):  Florida Atlantic (18), Memphis (33)
• ACC (3):  Clemson (26), Duke (32), Virginia (44)
• Big 10 (4):  Purdue (1), Wisconsin (6), Illinois (23), Northwestern (28)
• Big 12 (10):  Houston (3), Kansas (5), Texas Tech (11), Iowa St (24), Baylor (27), Oklahoma (29), Kansas St (35), TCU (40), Texas (47), Cincinnati (49)
• Big East (4):  U Conn (2), Marquette (13), Creighton (31), St. John's (42)
• MWC (6):  Utah St (8), San Diego St (12), New Mexico (18), Nevada (22), Colorado St (30), Boise St (43)
• Pac 12 (5):  Arizona (7), Utah (34), Oregon (38), Colorado (39), Washington St (48)
• SEC (9):  Ole Miss (10), South Carolina (14), Auburn (15), Tennessee (16), Alabama (17), Kentucky (21), Florida (37), Miss St (41), Georgia (45)

Teams with one bid that are above the at-large cut line:

Atlantic 10:  Dayton (9),  Ivy:  Princeton (35), MVC:  Indiana St (20), OVC:  McNeese St (46),  WAC:  Grand Canyon (25)

Last four byes:  Mississippi St, St. John's, Boise St, Virginia

Last four in:  Georgia, Texas, Washington St, Cincinnati

First four out:  BYU, Butler, Pittsburgh, Michigan St

 

No North Carolina?

[HoosierHoopster 6,517]

On 1/28/2024 at 9:09 AM, Uspshoosier said:

Now begins IUs final grasps at turning the season around.  Now comes a stretch of games that are more winnable then the previous games.    IU just played 3 straight upper bracket teams and clearly the 3 best teams in the B1G.  While it would have been nice to steal one of those games IU has shown all year they are not on that level.  6 of their losses are to Q1a teams and most of those are double digit losses.   
 IU has 10 Q1 and Q2 games left and 1 Q3 game left.   8 of the 11 games are to teams with a NET of 58 or worse with only 3 of them against top 30 NET.   While it doesn’t look good the schedule sets up nicely for them to make a push.  6 home games and 5 road games left.    Need to beat some tournament quality teams and get that NET down to at least the 70s.    One positive for IU is their overall SOS is 19 with a non con sos 134 

Hmm. Makes me think of a couple years ago when UM had a lousy record, lost all kinds of games, we beat them, then they got a higher seed (we were play in iirc), and it was bc their SOS was really high

[TheWatShot 13,496]

3 minutes ago, HoosierHoopster said:

Hmm. Makes me think of a couple years ago when UM had a lousy record, lost all kinds of games, we beat them, then they got a higher seed (we were play in iirc), and it was bc their SOS was really high

I think they got in with 17 wins, which seemed absolutely crazy. Naturally, our fans pitched a huge fit about it and their fans mocked and ridiculed us. Then, because the college basketball universe just HAS to work this way no matter what, they ended up going to the Sweet 16 while St. Mary's took our lunch money and gave us a swirly. 

[HoosierHoopster 6,517]

2 minutes ago, TheWatShot said:

I think they got in with 17 wins, which seemed absolutely crazy. Naturally, our fans pitched a huge fit about it and their fans mocked and ridiculed us. Then, because the college basketball universe just HAS to work this way no matter what, they ended up going to the Sweet 16 while St. Mary's took our lunch money and gave us a swirly. 

Yep I remember that well lol

[LIHoosier 25,333]

21 minutes ago, TheWatShot said:

I think they got in with 17 wins, which seemed absolutely crazy. Naturally, our fans pitched a huge fit about it and their fans mocked and ridiculed us. Then, because the college basketball universe just HAS to work this way no matter what, they ended up going to the Sweet 16 while St. Mary's took our lunch money and gave us a swirly. 

They were also penalized by having to travel from Indy to Ann Arbor...back to Indy