Bracketology and Team Resumes

[Stuhoo]

6 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

Hoosiers 

NET-65

SOS-39

Non con SOS-166

Results Based metrics 

KPI- 41

SOR-50 

WAB-52

Predictives

KenPom-55

Torvik-60 

BPI-58

Q1-2-8

Q2-2-0

Q3-6-0

IU is 10-8 in the top 3 Quads which is important that they stay about .500

3 wins away from home with one being a road win at a current projected tourney team 

you would like to see at least one more win away from home.  (Unwritten rule tells you at-large teams usually have 4 wins away from) teams have gotten in with less but it’s not common 

IU has 9 games left in regular season.  7 of those are against teams currently in the field with 4 at home and 3 away.  
 

Other road game is a Q2 game

As I said a while ago 10-10 probably puts them in the tourney but near the Last 4 in range which then you have to worry about bid stealers.  11-9 and they are in the tourney.  Only my opinion but the math currently backs that up. 

most important games left ranked 

Michigan

UCLA

Ohio st

Penn St 

@washington 

Purdue 

@Oregon

@Sparty

@Wisky 

 

 

So 5-4 when they’re playing a better team in eight of those games. Makes sense, but I’m not seeing it in the cards.

Slight hopey-glimmer? Lat year when Woody seemed like he’d lost the team they reeled off four out of five. But it’s long odds that lightning strikes twice.

[Uspshoosier]

2 minutes ago, Stuhoo said:

So 5-4 when they’re playing a better team in eight of those games. Makes sense, but I’m not seeing it in the cards.

Slight hopey-glimmer? Lat year when Woody seemed like he’d lost the team they reeled off four out of five. But it’s long odds that lightning strikes twice.

Last year they won their last 4 games when they were 6-10.  2 road wins against non tourney teams and 2 home wins against tourney teams however Michigan st was a bubble team and Wisky was sliding.   The teams this year are much better than last year.   If they win 5 more game they will have earned them and deserves a look by the committee has a tourney team.   If they win 6 more it’s a lock 

[Stuhoo]

10 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

Last year they won their last 4 games when they were 6-10.  2 road wins against non tourney teams and 2 home wins against tourney teams however Michigan st was a bubble team and Wisky was sliding.   The teams this year are much better than last year.   If they win 5 more game they will have earned them and deserves a look by the committee has a tourney team.   If they win 6 more it’s a lock 

Yup. Gotta try to draw an inside straight for the second year in a row. 

[Uspshoosier]

2 minutes ago, Stuhoo said:

Yup. Gotta try to draw an inside straight for the second year in a row. 

Definitely wasn’t expecting to lay out a path for IU to play itself into the tourney this year.  Figured they would be solidly projected in all year.   But here we are.  It’s like groundhogs day 

[LIHoosier]

3 hours ago, Uspshoosier said:

Definitely wasn’t expecting to lay out a path for IU to play itself into the tourney this year.  Figured they would be solidly projected in all year.   But here we are.  It’s like groundhogs day 

[Uspshoosier]

IU moved up a spot to 64 from 65 after the game last night.   

[Uspshoosier]

Just now, Uspshoosier said:

IU moved up a spot to 64 from 65 after the game last night.   

Switched with Iowa who was 64.   Home loss vs away loss would be my guess why 

[Class of '66 Old Fart]

13 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

IU moved up a spot to 64 from 65 after the game last night.   

So if we lose out, we might end up in the 50's?   lol

[RaceToTheTop]

On 2/2/2025 at 9:05 AM, Uspshoosier said:

Last year they won their last 4 games when they were 6-10.  2 road wins against non tourney teams and 2 home wins against tourney teams however Michigan st was a bubble team and Wisky was sliding.   The teams this year are much better than last year.   If they win 5 more game they will have earned them and deserves a look by the committee has a tourney team.   If they win 6 more it’s a lock 

I still didn’t like Michigan state getting in especially when they did lose to us when they were on the bubble

[Uspshoosier]

22 minutes ago, RaceToTheTop said:

I still didn’t like Michigan state getting in especially when they did lose to us when they were on the bubble

36 at large spots last year.   Someone has to fill them.   They beat enough tourney teams to earn a spot and had a top 15 sos.  I didnt have a problem them making it.  Virginia on the other hand I didn’t agree with at all 

[RaceToTheTop]

@Uspshoosier

Is it possible that Oregon could miss the big ten tournament but still make the NCAA tournament?  There exists possibilities that then finish 7-13 in conference and miss the BTT tournament on tiebreakers but stack up a ton of quad 1 wins

[Uspshoosier]

7 minutes ago, RaceToTheTop said:

@Uspshoosier

Is it possible that Oregon could miss the big ten tournament but still make the NCAA tournament?  There exists possibilities that then finish 7-13 in conference and miss the BTT tournament on tiebreakers but stack up a ton of quad 1 wins

lol hadn’t really dove into that but yeah that could definitely happen.   If they are on the  cut line and have 8 Q1 wins they are probably getting in.    Luckily I think they win enough to make the B1G tourney but that would be a fascinating scenario to play.   Low key hoping it happens lol 

[Class of '66 Old Fart]

On 2/5/2025 at 12:53 PM, Class of '66 Old Fart said:

So if we lose out, we might end up in the 50's?   lol

Well, we lost yesterday and I see our NET today is 62 up from 64.   PM me for the latest stock tips along with your credit card number.

[Uspshoosier]

The committees top 16 will be revealed this Saturday.   This gives bracketologist a small glimpse of what this years committee find important.  Always gives us clues on how to project the field moving forward.  For example the year IU was projected into the top 16 if gave us the clue that the committee that year valued road wins over tournament quality teams.   Ius road win over Xavier early in the year was huge.   After the reveal I went back through and moved some teams  around the seed list based on that info.    While the top 16 reveal isn’t important in the long run it is important to people who protect the field.    I will post my top 16 projection before Saturday 

[Uspshoosier]

[Hovadipo]

WHERE WE AT MAILMAN

[Uspshoosier]

16 minutes ago, Hovadipo said:

WHERE WE AT MAILMAN

This keeps them in the discussion.  Massive road win against a team solidly in.   If they could have won their home games they are in easily   Moving forward they have 3 home games in a row.  Win those and this thing gets really interesting 

[Uspshoosier]

https://x.com/evanmiya/status/1889533455165219323?s=46

[Uspshoosier]

IU jumped up 5 spots to 56 in the NET.   

[JHoosier914]

I can’t remember but isn’t there a number like ‘no team with a NET better than X has missed the tournament?’

im sure its not in the 50s, maybe not even the 40s.  I’m just curious for those more knowledgeable than me