Bracketology and Team Resumes

[Uspshoosier]

27 minutes ago, go iu bb said:

They don't take injuries into account when looking at the record. So they won't look at a team and say they'd have won x more games or this game or that game with the player.

They sometimes take them into account when doing seeding, I believe. If an injured starter has recently returned they might get a seeding bump. Conversely, if a team's star player goes down and won't be available for the tournament, that could drop their seed.

I think they also factor them for teams on the bubble, it can be the difference between making the tournament or not. This one I'm less sure of than the others above.

Always a gray area when it comes to injuries and the selection committee.  Honestly what they do with injuries changes year to year with the committee members.    Injuries are definitely factored more into seeded then they would be overall selection.   A team better have the resume to back up getting selected instead of hoping committee will select you because a player came back.    A few years ago Notre Dame lost Bonzi Colson for a chunk of the season.   If had been healthy the whole year they would have been a tourney team.    He came back and they won some games but for me didn’t have the resume to get selected.   Committee put them as first team out.  I personally think they just put them there to make them feel better because I didn’t have them near the cut line but the point was committee could have put them in a close not to do so.    

[HoosierHoopster]

 

The NCAA "committee" 

[lillurk]

That CBS analyst with IU at, effectively, #6, and Katz with IU at 5 are more or less saying they believe IU is the team it was through the UNC game and since PSU. Torvik post-PSU has IU 6th, IU’s first seven game had them 13th over that span. And for one reason or another Torvik has been lower on IU than the other computer metrics all year.

Do I buy that you can just wipe those six weeks away? Well they count on the resume. But I think 1) IU’s clearly capable of playing at that level, including on the road and in neutral gyms. 2) There are some hard-to-measure narrative reasons that help explain the poor play period (injuries, TJD sat some of the cupcakes during the omitted stretch, moping about injuries, the defense was shockingly bad for parts of that stretch, maybe the players’ only meeting made a difference…). 3) Notably, the other teams ranked highly in those samples are largely teams that we’d all agree really are top 10 or 15 level good.

[LIHoosier]

14th in the AP Poll, +4

[HoosierHoopster]

12th in power rankings

12. Indiana Hoosiers (18-7)
Previous ranking: In the waiting room
This week: at Northwestern (Wednesday), vs. Illinois (Saturday)

Outside of Trayce Jackson-Davis' dominance and Jalen Hood-Schifino generally playing Robin to his Batman, Indiana's stretch of eight wins in nine games has seen a variety of different ways to win. Four of the first five wins in the run came by at least 15 points, but the last three have come by a combined 12 points. The Hoosiers made nine 3s in a win over Michigan State and 10 3s in a win over Ohio State -- but made five or fewer in the other six wins. Race Thompson essentially missed four of the wins (three DNPs, and one game with four minutes) and played in four. As long as Mike Woodson has the likely runner-up for National Player of the Year, though, that might be all that matters.

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/35645277/alabama-new-no-1-purdue-upset-men-college-basketball-power-rankings-2022-23

[lillurk]

As of today, none of the bracket matrix participants worse than the 5 line. A few have them a 3

[NashvilleHoosier]

9 hours ago, LIHoosier said:

14th in the AP Poll, +4

Completely useless fact of the day....the highest ranked team with 7 or more losses. Carry on.

[southsidehoosier]

Last time bracketology was this exciting and not anxiety inducing was 2016

[Uspshoosier]

Probably move views in the bracketology thread when IU is safe I’m guessing.   Top 16 from the selection committee will be this Saturday.    If IU wins tomorrow my guess is they will be included.    As always I will release my top 16 sometime before 

[AKHoosier]

18 minutes ago, southsidehoosier said:

Last time bracketology was this exciting and not anxiety inducing was 2016

Definitely. 

And even then, I knew we really had no chance to get further than the 2nd weekend. Beating UK was awesome though.

This year feels different. If UNC could make a run to the title game last year, no reason to think we can't do the same this March if our guards don't disappear. 

[HoosierHoopster]

40 minutes ago, southsidehoosier said:

Last time bracketology was this exciting and not anxiety inducing was 2016

Also last time we beat UM at UM. 

[HoosierAloha]

39 minutes ago, AKHoosier said:

Definitely. 

And even then, I knew we really had no chance to get further than the 2nd weekend. Beating UK was awesome though.

This year feels different. If UNC could make a run to the title game last year, no reason to think we can't do the same this March if our guards don't disappear. 

That last part being key. Are our guards capable/likely to make that type of run? Have we seen that level of play from multiple guards for multiple games?

I'd love to watch JHS and one or more of XJ, Tamar, and Gallo take us on a deep tourney run this March/April.

[Stuhoo]

18 minutes ago, HoosierAloha said:

That last part being key. Are our guards capable/likely to make that type of run? Have we seen that level of play from multiple guards for multiple games?

I'd love to watch JHS and one or more of XJ, Tamar, and Gallo take us on a deep tourney run this March/April.

JHS, X, and Gallo have an extremely high ceiling as a March guard trio. Once X is back, Tamar slides to the backup three spot (along with Gallo in crunch time).

Our biggest question mark by far is from our "4-spot buffet" IMO.

[Loaded Chicken Sandwich]

Any news on Xavier Johnson?

[RaceToTheTop]

North Caroilna is 0-9 in quad one games.  While it's certainly good to have 9 of your 10 losses in Q1, zero Q1 wins is no bueno.

Just for the record, Minnesota is 1-9 in quad one games.

[HoosierHoopster]

19 minutes ago, Loaded Chicken Sandwich said:

Any news on Xavier Johnson?

Haven't seen anything new but would be close to shocked if he played this game. If he sees any time in the near future it will almost certainly be spot minutes, no reports of him practicing/scrimmaging, just getting back to healthy.

[HoosierHoopster]

2 minutes ago, RaceToTheTop said:

North Caroilna is 0-9 in quad one games.  While it's certainly good to have 9 of your 10 losses in Q1, zero Q1 wins is no bueno.

Just for the record, Minnesota is 1-9 in quad one games.

With the level of talent on that UNC squad, that's absolutely no bueno

[HoosierHoopster]

1 hour ago, HoosierAloha said:

That last part being key. Are our guards capable/likely to make that type of run? Have we seen that level of play from multiple guards for multiple games?

I'd love to watch JHS and one or more of XJ, Tamar, and Gallo take us on a deep tourney run this March/April.

Besides Stuhoo's point/question on how the 4 works out going forward, it's also somewhat a road game vs home game thing imo for the guards, in particular Bates.  I'm not in the give up on him camp, but he needs to find his mojo / confidence again. He's had some excellent games, but without going back and checking I think they were home, and his away game play just hasn't been there (though I saw a post that said he hasn't shown he can pass, and that's just wrong imo, he's had some terrific passes to the post in traffic and otherwise in moving the ball inside). He was outstanding in that MSU game, but has largely disappeared. And in fairness, Gallo has had some real off games offensively, he brings it defensively every game so he's going to play, but when he contributes more on both ends our overall guard play is much better. It's impressive that we've continued to win despite not scoring that well recently, shows just how good TJD and JHS are and that the team does have depth for other players to show up (like Kopp), but we need those other guys to step up again to run deep.

[Uspshoosier]

16 minutes ago, RaceToTheTop said:

North Caroilna is 0-9 in quad one games.  While it's certainly good to have 9 of your 10 losses in Q1, zero Q1 wins is no bueno.

Just for the record, Minnesota is 1-9 in quad one games.

Almost identical to last year.   They didn’t get their first Q1 win until late into the year.  Then they added a couple more at the end of the year when some teams moved around to make their win against them Q1.  

[HoosierAloha]

10 minutes ago, HoosierHoopster said:

Besides Stuhoo's point/question on how the 4 works out going forward, it's also somewhat a road game vs home game thing imo for the guards, in particular Bates.  I'm not in the give up on him camp, but he needs to find his mojo / confidence again. He's had some excellent games, but without going back and checking I think they were home, and his away game play just hasn't been there (though I saw a post that said he hasn't shown he can pass, and that's just wrong imo, he's had some terrific passes to the post in traffic and otherwise in moving the ball inside). He was outstanding in that MSU game, but has largely disappeared. And in fairness, Gallo has had some real off games offensively, he brings it defensively every game so he's going to play, but when he contributes more on both ends our overall guard play is much better. It's impressive that we've continued to win despite not scoring that well recently, shows just how good TJD and JHS are and that the team does have depth for other players to show up (like Kopp), but we need those other guys to step up again to run deep.

I don't think the 4 is as big of a concern as our guards will be come tourney time. We'll need our guards to play well to make any sort of deep run. That's probably accurate on Bates, along with the majority of our guards/small wings. I believe he's only had a couple (maybe 3ish) games where he's hit multiple threes. (counting games against high major opponents or those with a pulse if that's not stretching it too far for some)