Bracketology and Team Resumes

[Uspshoosier]

Cuse up 30 on Florida St.   Cuse is going to mess around and make that loss a Q1 loss for IU. Lol 

[HoosierAloha]

1 minute ago, IUc2016 said:

again, as both USPS and I have said, you are making a separate argument.

have a good day.

Thank you, have a good day too.

[RaceToTheTop]

36 minutes ago, Five Prime said:

Also, if it's flipped (non con 50, conf 300) is it better?  And why?  Because of apparent control over non con schedule?

I don't think they ever put conference SOS on the sheets -- just non conference and overall SOS.  And overall is a more valuable metric, even if non-con is a factor.

The closest comparison would be to look at IU v. Mississippi Valley State if they were both 18-12.  IU non con of 323, overall of 51.  Mississippi Valley State had a non-con of 38 and an overall of 303.

IU going 18-12 with those SOS's are an NCAA tournament bubble team.  If MIssissippi Valley State was 18-12 with their actual SOS's, they aren't even an NIT team....hell, they wouldn't even get close to sniffing a tournament like CBI.

[RaceToTheTop]

On 3/7/2022 at 1:01 PM, TheWatShot said:

I did an NIT bubble watch in Archie Miller's first season. It was actually kind of fun, hoping all these teams I'd never heard of could avoid upsets in their conference tournaments. Unfortunately, too many of them lost, and we had to wait 'till next year for some NIT redemption. 

There is an NIT bracketology site.  It should be noted that some teams they have both in their NCAA bracketology as well as their NIT bracketology -- the reason being that they expect a couple of teams at the bottom to lose their spot to auto bids.  They have Wyoming and Notre Dame in both brackets -- I don't agree that either are in the last four, but USPS is correct in that Notre Dame is closer to the cut line than most think.  I have them in the last four byes.

https://thebarkingcrow.com/nit-bracketology/

[Indiana muskie]

19 minutes ago, HoosierAloha said:

 

NET and other metrics (see: efficiency), you know the things we could control that would help us get over that incredibly difficult bubble hump we have struggled with for 5 or 6 years?

I can see where we would blame the Big 1.o or ACC or Big East as we're the only ones that have games scheduled for us...

Easy way to get over the hump is to win more games simple as that,   just my thoughts . Woody has been fighting that hump all year like punch drunk Bowery boxer .

[HoosierAloha]

4 minutes ago, Indiana muskie said:

Easy way to get over the hump is to win more games simple as that,   just my thoughts . Woody has been fighting that hump all year like punch drunk Bowery boxer .

It is pretty simple from a 50,000 feet view but... when we're cutting bubblicious hairs each year noncon SOS, efficiency, etc. play a big part of that. Showing up a few more times this season would have had us sitting on the right side of the bubble entering the Big 1.o tourney.

[Uspshoosier]

5 minutes ago, HoosierAloha said:

It is pretty simple from a 50,000 feet view but... when we're cutting bubblicious hairs each year noncon SOS, efficiency, etc. play a big part of that. Showing up a few more times this season would have had us sitting on the right side of the bubble entering the Big 1.o tourney.

This is the first time I can remember where the non con sos is a negative.  I’m sure it’s happened but I can’t remember an IU Non con sos in the 300’s 

[HoosierAloha]

15 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

This is the first time I can remember where the non con sos is a negative.  I’m sure it’s happened but I can’t remember an IU Non con sos in the 300’s 

So they could do it even when the Big 1.o was scheduling games for them?

[RaceToTheTop]

9 minutes ago, HoosierAloha said:

So they could do it even when the Big 1.o was scheduling games for them?

At this point, I'm not even sure YOU know what you are arguing about.

[str8baller]

1 hour ago, vemmeistars said:

I still don't grasp why non conference schedule mattes that much for a power 5 team with a top 50 overall sos. The non conference SOS should be a bigger factor for teams like SMU, VCU, Dayton, etc.

It shouldn’t. But it is what you get when you have people using statistics and formulas they don’t understand along with a general non-understanding a basic stats. The football committee is worse than the basketball one, imo.

 

I always love when one of the members explains something with the rationale of I give them credit for being ranked 5th (or whatever) in ABC formula, but I had to ding them for their SOS rating when inevitably the SOS was already calculated in the ABC formula they were using.  I always want to scream at my tv “hey dingus you just factored in SOS twice…why did you use a SOS weighted system if you wanted to factor in SOS separately in your head!!!” But nobody listens…

 

Either way, our trash non-conf schedule is an embarrassment. Literally swap out the 325 ranked buy games for teams in the 250’s and we’re not in this discussion. 

[HoosierAloha]

37 minutes ago, brumdog45 said:

At this point, I'm not even sure YOU know what you are arguing about.

I don't think there was any arguing. Others posted what they thought was the issue and I replied with my thoughts. We could go point by point if you need clarification.

[RaceToTheTop]

34 minutes ago, str8baller said:

Literally swap out the 325 ranked buy games for teams in the 250’s and we’re not in this discussion. 

But you don't know pre-conference who is 325th or 250th (and for whatever it's worth, the worst team on our schedule was 314 on Pom and was and the only sub 300 team).

Eastern Michigan was 314th in Pom this year.  I wouldn't have looked too closely on Pom's numbers last year because of how abbreviated the schedule was (and how conference heavy)....in 2020 they were at 196.  Northern Illinois was at 296 this year.....two years ago they were 178.  Marshall was at 237 this year....two years they were at 143 (and in the covid year, they were top 100).

The point is that it's not as simple as 'swapping out 250s for 325s' without knowing who they are.

[TheWatShot]

1 hour ago, brumdog45 said:

There is an NIT bracketology site.  It should be noted that some teams they have both in their NCAA bracketology as well as their NIT bracketology -- the reason being that they expect a couple of teams at the bottom to lose their spot to auto bids.  They have Wyoming and Notre Dame in both brackets -- I don't agree that either are in the last four, but USPS is correct in that Notre Dame is closer to the cut line than most think.  I have them in the last four byes.

https://thebarkingcrow.com/nit-bracketology/

I had totally forgotten, but this website actually inspired my NIT bubble watch discussion 4 years ago. 

[Uspshoosier]

12 minutes ago, HoosierAloha said:

I don't think there was any arguing. Others posted what they thought was the issue and I replied with my thoughts. We could go point by point if you need clarification.

Issues change year to year.  I was just pointing out this year one of IU’s  issue is the terrible non con sos which they hadn’t had to deal with the last couple years being on the bubble.  If you break it down year to year it’s quite comical how this program has found ways to find itself out of the tournament 

Creans last year- only team ever to beat 2 teams in the non-conference that went on to become 1seeds and not get an-at large bid 

Archie’s first year- didn’t beat a tournament team all year 

2nd year- had a historic losing streak (12 of 13) and was still one of the first 4 out 

3rd year- once in a lifetime global pandemic cancels the tournament where they were going to make it. 
 4 year- Shortened season where they had enough good wins, sos and non con sos was great but just didn’t have the quantity of wins to make it 

Woodys 1st year- TBD 

[Uspshoosier]

Committee gets going today 

[IU_FanClub]

BC up 1 at half. I doubt they pull it out but I'll still be watching haha

[str8baller]

1 hour ago, brumdog45 said:

But you don't know pre-conference who is 325th or 250th (and for whatever it's worth, the worst team on our schedule was 314 on Pom and was and the only sub 300 team).

Eastern Michigan was 314th in Pom this year.  I wouldn't have looked too closely on Pom's numbers last year because of how abbreviated the schedule was (and how conference heavy)....in 2020 they were at 196.  Northern Illinois was at 296 this year.....two years ago they were 178.  Marshall was at 237 this year....two years they were at 143 (and in the covid year, they were top 100).

The point is that it's not as simple as 'swapping out 250s for 325s' without knowing who they are.

 the point you’re getting at is we’re kind of screwed this year by historically bad Mac-type teams,  and I agree that that’s the main culprit. But we do put reliably bad 300-level teams on every year. 
 

 I’m talking about the Jackson St’s, Howard’s, Chicago St’s, etc …that we always have on our schedule once or twice every year. Those teams are reliably 300+ (Or close) almost every year. 
 

Those games are a waste of time. They can’t help the players that much because they’re not competitive. Winning by 40 doesn’t off-set the crappy SOS hit because most formulas have a max score cut-off. They’re there because they are a cheap buy and season tix are sold no matter what. But they’re a waste for everyone and help bring the SOS down every year.  
 

I wasn’t really talking about E Michigan, because you’re correct that in most other years they’d be on the right side of 250, or better. (They were 290 last year though, so it’s not completely unexpected that they would suck again). 

[IU_FanClub]

BC and Wake tied at 70 in the last minute. BC ball.

[HoosierHoopster]

1 hour ago, Uspshoosier said:

Committee gets going today 

Do you have their bank account routing & account numbers? I'll send in the payment, let's get us in!

[Hovadipo]

2 minutes ago, HoosierHoopster said:

Do you have their bank account routing & account numbers? I'll send in the payment, let's get us in!

I have the committee's joint Venmo account info.

Send $5,000 to @DefinitelyNotHovadipo42069 and we'll be dancing!