Bracketology and Team Resumes

[reconmkd 4,374]

1 minute ago, TheWatShot said:

Can't wait to spend the next 3 days analyzing our path to the tournament and getting optimistic just so we can get kicked in the groin again Thursday. 

Saturday was a little different for me. I went into the game thinking the worst was going to happen, so the result wasn't as bad as it could have been, but I was still a little upset it was so close and got my hope up a little. I expect the same for Thursday, I don't see any way we come out of that game with a W, which I completely hate that feeling. I have never been that way, even in our darkest times, I have always had some sort of hope that IU will get a W.

[TheWatShot 13,956]

1 minute ago, IUc2016 said:

that was me last week prior to the rutgers game. Trying to just stay away from it this week and not get my hopes up.

I'll be studying the NIT bracketology instead lol

I did an NIT bubble watch in Archie Miller's first season. It was actually kind of fun, hoping all these teams I'd never heard of could avoid upsets in their conference tournaments. Unfortunately, too many of them lost, and we had to wait 'till next year for some NIT redemption. 

[Uspshoosier 45,663]

6 hours ago, str8baller said:

Man…O$U faltering down the stretch and out of the top 25 hurts us a little. Blowing that game in Madison hurts us the most. Had we not engaged in that epic collapse, I think we’d almost surely be playing for seeding  right now.  
 

That game will haunt me for a while. Let’s hope it doesn’t come back to haunt the team. 

Them faltering down the stretch actually didn’t hurt that much.   Still a top 22 NET win.    AP top 25 is irrelevant in eyes of committee 

[IUc2016 7,121]

1 minute ago, TheWatShot said:

I did an NIT bubble watch in Archie Miller's first season. It was actually kind of fun, hoping all these teams I'd never heard of could avoid upsets in their conference tournaments. Unfortunately, too many of them lost, and we had to wait 'till next year for some NIT redemption. 

Well hey at least Woody is one year ahead of Archie! this team is guaranteed at least an NIT invite.

[str8baller 5,225]

23 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

AP top 25 is irrelevant in eyes of committee 

You keep saying that, but looking at the criteria published by the NCAA shows they can consider about anything, including all sorts of systems, rankings, and metrics. In fact the first metric listed for committee consideration is…the “eye test!” It’s literally quite a subjective process. 
 

 I think it’s a little silly to think 12 individuals won’t place any emphasis on the most popular poll in the sport. In fact, a committee member doesn’t have to factor in anything, and could make their entire analysis based on the AP poll if they so choose.  (That would make them qualified for the football selection committee too, btw). 
 

This is especially true of a committee selection pieces that is a glorified poll itself. 
 

NET is neat. But pointless. I doubt if more than 1 member could explain it in full.  5 years from now we’ll look at NET people the same way we currently look at the past folk who spent a bunch of time discussing the stupid RPI. 

 

[Uspshoosier 45,663]

9 minutes ago, str8baller said:

You keep saying that, but looking at the criteria published by the NCAA shows they can consider about anything, including all sorts of systems, rankings, and metrics. In fact the first metric listed for committee consideration is…the “eye test!” It’s literally quite a subjective process. 
 

 I think it’s a little silly to think 12 individuals won’t place any emphasis on the most popular poll in the sport. In fact, a committee member doesn’t have to factor in anything, and could make their entire analysis based on the AP poll if they so choose.  (That would make them qualified for the football selection committee too, btw). 
 

This is especially true of a committee selection pieces that is a glorified poll itself. 
 

NET is neat. But pointless. I doubt if more than 1 member could explain it in full.  5 years from now we’ll look at NET people the same way we currently look at the past folk who spent a bunch of time discussing the stupid RPI. 

 

Eye test isn’t used much anymore    Trying to get away from it 

reason I called the ap poll irreverent is because I’ve seen interview with past committee chairs and the current one where they say as much about it.   If it was important it would be on the team sheets and it isn’t 

 

[Uspshoosier 45,663]

NET isn’t going anywhere.   The ncaa themselves came up with the metric by talking to a bunch of analytics guys and having google come up with a  formula to replace the RPI.   Since it’s their own creation it’s here to stay 

[Uspshoosier 45,663]

AP ranking – The Associated Press has been ranking the top basketball teams since 1948. In its current form, the poll ranks the top 25 teams in Division I via a ranking that is compiled from the ballots of 65 sports journalists across the country. The ranking has no official weight in the selection process, and even a No. 1 ranking in the AP poll does not technically guarantee a team a bid to the NCAA tournament. View the current AP rankings here.

[Loaded Chicken Sandwich 8,672]

2 hours ago, Uspshoosier said:

AP ranking – The Associated Press has been ranking the top basketball teams since 1948. In its current form, the poll ranks the top 25 teams in Division I via a ranking that is compiled from the ballots of 65 sports journalists across the country. The ranking has no official weight in the selection process, and even a No. 1 ranking in the AP poll does not technically guarantee a team a bid to the NCAA tournament. View the current AP rankings here.

It's just nice to be considered a Top 25 team. It's an important piece of the puzzle and one that's stayed away from Indiana for much of the last 6 years. 

[IU Scott 2,375]

2 hours ago, Uspshoosier said:

Eye test isn’t used much anymore    Trying to get away from it 

reason I called the ap poll irreverent is because I’ve seen interview with past committee chairs and the current one where they say as much about it.   If it was important it would be on the team sheets and it isn’t 

 

I like the eye test

[Southside 1,914]

36 minutes ago, IU Scott said:

I like the eye test

If we were talking about a lot less teams, I'd agree. 

But way too many teams and games to really use the eyes. 

I'd be fine with a straight up transparent formula. Anything to remove the Bartas of the world.. 

[TheWatShot 13,956]

Northern Kentucky up 25-19 at the half over PFW in the Horizon semifinals. NKU was up 17-5 at one point. 

[HoosierHoops1 5,024]

14 hours ago, NashvilleHoosier said:

I made the mistake of reading first, then realizing I didn't want to see it. 

same here

[IU_FanClub 1,667]

For tomorrow

 

BC over Wake
Butler over Xavier
Clemson over Va Tech
Louisville over Virginia

If one of these happens tomorrow I’ll be happy biggest helper would be Xavier losing followed by Tech

Games that can help our resume:

Nebraska over Northwestern
-Nebraska is 5 spots on the net away from our road win against them being quad 2

St John’s over DePaul
-St John’s is currently quad 2 win but only 4 spots in net away from being quad 3

[Hoosier2016 63]

So realistically....1 win in the BTT we have a marginal shot to get in and 2 wins we're in. Does anyone think 1 win will be enough? 

[vemmeistars 202]

If some of these things happen, 1 win would definitely do it:

Butler beats Xavier

Boston College beats Wake Forest

SMU loses their 1st game (probably Wichita State)

Baylor beats Oklahoma,

Davidson wins A-10

VCU and/or Dayton underachieve in A-10 tournament

North Texas wins CUSA tournament

No crazy winners win the B10, SEC, ACC, P12, B12, Big East

 

Edited March 9, 2022 by vemmeistars

[Stuhoo 80,601]

4 minutes ago, Hoosier2016 said:

So realistically....1 win in the BTT we have a marginal shot to get in and 2 wins we're in. Does anyone think 1 win will be enough? 

If enough things break correctly? For sure.

If not? First four out.

If we lose to Michigan? Off to the NIT for sure.

[vemmeistars 202]

Also, if IU wins against Michigan and Illinois, the focus really should be shifting toward winning BTT more than worrying about making tourney.

[IU_FanClub 1,667]

I just really can't see them leaving us out with another win especially it being quad 1 on a neutral floor

[Uspshoosier 45,663]

11 minutes ago, IU_FanClub said:

I just really can't see them leaving us out with another win especially it being quad 1 on a neutral floor

If they win one and lose the next they would still have losing record against the top 3 Quads (12-13)and have a Non Con Sos 314.  Those 2 are major red flags for bubble teams trying to get in.   Usually if you have that bad of non con sos you are safely in the field or you are completely left out.    Drake last year had the worst non con Sos ever to get selected to the first 4 and theirs was around 260.  IU could still get in with just 1 one if things fall the right way but if I was IU I would recommend winning more then 1 to feel safe