Bracketology and Team Resumes

[Brass Cannon]

13 minutes ago, RaceToTheTop said:

Joe Lunardi had IU as a 9 seed BEFORE the Wisky game....FWIW.

Good sign. Wanna get 4 of the next 7 then at least one in the BTT to remove all doubt 

[Uspshoosier]

About the 1:12 mark the talk about the IU game 

[Uspshoosier]

Where things stand with a month left in the regular season 

IU has put themselves in position to where if they win their home games they should be comfortable in the tourney.  If they start losing home games then they will have to make it up on the road games where 2 of them are top of the bracket road games and the other is at a bubble team.  They always have the conference tourney to build their resume if things fall through in this last month.   I’ve seen teams completely fall apart in the last month and fall out of the bracket completely and I’ve seen teams solidify and improve  their seeding in the last month.   Not sure what IU will do but the schedule suggests they will have a shot to solidly their seeding and have bonus road games to sky rocket up the seed line if they win any of those games 

18-6 (7-6)

NET-33

Sos-33

Non con-212

Results based metrics 

WAB-40

KPI-53

SOR- 41

Predictive metrics 

Ken Pom- 35 

Torvik-25

BPI- 29

Q1a(2-7) Q1b(0-3)

Q2a(2-0) Q1b(0-0)

Q3(5-0)

Q4 (7-0)

IU has 8 losses which are all in the Q1 area 

breaking it down further 

5 losses are Q1a( 4 away from home )

3 losses are Q1b(2 away from home )

IU has an sos of 33 with 2 away games left against the top 10 in NET and another road game against a top 37 team  with another home game against a top 12 team.   How much higher will their SOS jump up with those 4 games?  They possibly could have a top 10 SOS when it’s all said and done.   
 

Is IUs roster perfect? No it has some flaws and room for improvement next year.   
 

if IU makes the tourney while playing a potentially top 10 SOS with this roster that would be a heck of a start for this staffs time at IU.  I think everyone knew after the first couple games that the roster had some limitations that would hold them back from being able to compete with the top teams in the nation.  As of today 8 of IUs 20 conference games will come against top 18 in the NET.   Buckle up for the last month.   

[Pagoda]

FWIW prediction (betting) markets have us at a ~85% chance to make it.  Feels high, but that’s what it is.

That sort of signals 10-10 is probably enough. 

Though of course getting in with ease should be the goal.  Long way to go.

[Stuhoo]

10 minutes ago, Pagoda said:

FWIW prediction (betting) markets have us at a ~85% chance to make it.  Feels high, but that’s what it is.

That sort of signals 10-10 is probably enough. 

Though of course getting in with ease should be the goal.  Long way to go.

I would assume those odds incorporate the more than 50/50 likelihood that we dump one of the three games we’ll be favored in, and win one of the four games when we’re the underdog.

That would give us a better resume.

[Pagoda]

5 minutes ago, Stuhoo said:

I would assume those odds incorporate the more than 50/50 likelihood that we dump one of the three games we’ll be favored in, and win one of the four games when we’re the underdog.

That would give us a better resume.

I’d guess that’s right, though I am a square that’s for sure.

Even if we screw up one of our three easier home games an MSU or OSU win can cover that up.  Or even a BTT run I suppose.  Several combos can work and that probably pushes up the odds to get in.

[Shooter]

52 minutes ago, Stuhoo said:

I would assume those odds incorporate the more than 50/50 likelihood that we dump one of the three games we’ll be favored in, and win one of the four games when we’re the underdog.

That would give us a better resume.

Yea, I'll be a bit worried if we get to 10-10 by just holding serve on the easier games. That'd leave us 2-12 in Quad 1, which will be an easy talking point against us.

Per Kenpom:

- Chances that we win all three easier home games: 53%

- Chances that we win at least one of the other four games: 75%

[str8baller]

2 hours ago, Pagoda said:

FWIW prediction (betting) markets have us at a ~85% chance to make it.  Feels high, but that’s what it is.

That sort of signals 10-10 is probably enough. 

Though of course getting in with ease should be the goal.  Long way to go.

That’s about what ESPN/Lunardis model has too according to the article I read. 

[Uspshoosier]

IU will have a Q2 loss again when Minny falls to a Q2 game 

[IU Prof]

8 hours ago, Shooter said:

Yea, I'll be a bit worried if we get to 10-10 by just holding serve on the easier games. That'd leave us 2-12 in Quad 1, which will be an easy talking point against us.

Per Kenpom:

- Chances that we win all three easier home games: 53%

- Chances that we win at least one of the other four games: 75%

I'd flip those odds, personally.

[Class of '66 Old Fart]

 

[Uspshoosier]

Took care of business against a team they should have beaten.    IU has put itself in great position. Now they have 2 high level road games that are like bonus games.   Get a split and they are cooking.  A win in either one of these next to games would basically be like winning 2 games.   Still some work to do 

[Jeff Flabjohns]

KP and NET stayed the same at 35, 33 respectively. 9 seed in Lunardis bracket this morning 

[str8baller]

5 minutes ago, Jeff Flabjohns said:

KP and NET stayed the same at 35, 33 respectively. 9 seed in Lunardis bracket this morning 

Gonna be tough to improve our efficiency metrics at this point in the season, especially in the positive direction. We will have to stack some wins, beyond the easy ones to move up that seed line. 

[Uspshoosier]

1 hour ago, str8baller said:

Gonna be tough to improve our efficiency metrics at this point in the season, especially in the positive direction. We will have to stack some wins, beyond the easy ones to move up that seed line. 

Road wins against top of the bracket teams are like gold.   If IU wins one of those games they will jump in the 20s for a the NET.  The offensive and defensive efficiency like you said will probably be hard to improve on 

[Demo]

Delphi with IU up the 9 line.

[Stuhoo]

12 minutes ago, Demo said:

Delphi with IU up the 9 line.

Apropos of nothing and with full understanding that there is absolutely zero chance that the actual bracket will reflect this, but if this Delphi bracket came true @Uspshoosier, Indiana as the lowest ranked 9 seed, would play the highest 8 seed, which would mean a matchup against...

Wilhamena Wigglesworm Wade.

 

[Uspshoosier]

1 hour ago, Stuhoo said:

Apropos of nothing and with full understanding that there is absolutely zero chance that the actual bracket will reflect this, but if this Delphi bracket came true @Uspshoosier, Indiana as the lowest ranked 9 seed, would play the highest 8 seed, which would mean a matchup against...

Wilhamena Wigglesworm Wade.

 

lol.  Luckily for me it probably wouldn’t hold the true seed line for that to happen.  They would have to move some teams around for bracketing principles.  
 

If we did end up playing them then 

 

[Hoosierfan1901]

Seeing that St Louis location has me eyeing the seeding a lot more. Wishful thinking for me.

[BtownStrength]

3 minutes ago, Hoosierfan1901 said:

Seeing that St Louis location has me eyeing the seeding a lot more. Wishful thinking for me.

Definitely could happen. Most likely path would be in the 8/9 game if Iowa St gets the 1 seed. I'm mentally preparing for Greenville, SC (Duke region) or Philly (UConn region) but St Louis would be fantastic.