Fire or ‘Way to Go!’ Tom Allen?

[Magnanimous 4,507]

5 hours ago, Alford Bailey said:

Tom Crean without the big wins is one description Ive heard.

Tom Allen’s awesome.

[Walking Boot of Doom 18,170]

Tom Allen’s awesome.

Count me as a fan. He’s creating a culture at IUFB and recruits and players are buying.


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[RaceToTheTop 25,018]

But it's not like we have been playing .500 ball against the West anyway.  I think someone posted that we were winning like 35% of our games against the West and 16% against the East.  So playing 6 games against the East and 3 against the West as we currently are produces 6*.16 + 3*.35 = 2.01 conference wins per season.  Switch divisions and it becomes 6*.35 + 3*.16 = 2.58 wins.  So with the winning rates we've had traditionally, we are talking about it being a difference of a win every other year.

My problem is that we typically schedule three non-conference games we should win and still can't make a bowl.  I don't think that asking to go 3-6 in conference more often than not is asking too much regardless of which division we are in.

[RaceToTheTop 25,018]

On 10/5/2019 at 6:47 PM, Old Friend said:

My point East v West is in the West, there are no teams about whom I can reasonably say "Indiana cannot and will not ever consistently reach that level."    In the East, there are 3.   

Indiana can and likely will beat those 3 every now and then,  but more often than not, Indiana will lose those 3 games.   That's just reality, and it's very simply a far more difficult division for Indiana to expect consistent success.  As I mentioned earlier, if Indiana takes the "throw money at it" approach and gains on those 3 programs, it's foolish to think they would simply stand pat.  All 3 would make immediate changes if they - by their standards - "dropped" enough to let Indiana catch them and stay there. 

That's why I don't think Indiana is that far off from its reasonable ceiling.   It's NOT reasonable to start with those 3 games and then go undefeated in the other 9 on a regular basis.   7-2 is more reasonable and 6-3 is probably more realistic.  6-3 makes us 6-6; and that's a pretty good season for Indiana.  8-4 would be a GREAT season for us.  It's hard for me to believe it's reasonable to expect 8-1 in our other 9 games on a regular basis.

I'd love a show of hands to see who really believes Indiana can regularly beat Ohio State, Michigan, or Penn State.

My hand is down.  But our non-conference schedule basically evens that out and puts us at 3-3.....meaning we need three wins against Michigan State, Maryland, Rutgers, Purdue, and two other crossover games.  Typically we lose to Michigan State, but we aren't losing to Rutgers unless we implode.  So now we are 4-4 with Maryland, Purdue, and two crossover games in a majority of years.

So IMO our floor most years is 4-8, our ceiling is 8-4.  IMO Maryland and Purdue are tams we should be playing coin toss games.  So there are five results left:  4-8, 5-7, 6-6, 7-5, and 8-4.  Three of the five get us in a bowl.  

[Walking Boot of Doom 18,170]

But it's not like we have been playing .500 ball against the West anyway.  I think someone posted that we were winning like 35% of our games against the West and 16% against the East.  So playing 6 games against the East and 3 against the West as we currently are produces 6*.16 + 3*.35 = 2.01 conference wins per season.  Switch divisions and it becomes 6*.35 + 3*.16 = 2.58 wins.  So with the winning rates we've had traditionally, we are talking about it being a difference of a win every other year.

My problem is that we typically schedule three non-conference games we should win and still can't make a bowl.  I don't think that asking to go 3-6 in conference more often than not is asking too much regardless of which division we are in.

I agree that applying historical win rates doesn’t move the needle as much. Not sure of the sample size, but that needs to be understood as well - good or bad (.300 isn’t good regardless).

 

I would say that as an East member we have three games where we have maybe a 10% chance and simply playing opponents where’s it closer to a coin flip instead will result in that elusive 6th win far more often.

 

 

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[DChoosier 7,975]

11 hours ago, brumdog45 said:

But it's not like we have been playing .500 ball against the West anyway.  I think someone posted that we were winning like 35% of our games against the West and 16% against the East.  So playing 6 games against the East and 3 against the West as we currently are produces 6*.16 + 3*.35 = 2.01 conference wins per season.  Switch divisions and it becomes 6*.35 + 3*.16 = 2.58 wins.  So with the winning rates we've had traditionally, we are talking about it being a difference of a win every other year.

My problem is that we typically schedule three non-conference games we should win and still can't make a bowl.  I don't think that asking to go 3-6 in conference more often than not is asking too much regardless of which division we are in.

I posted this a few weeks ago. We have a 4-9 record vs the West since that alignment has been in place. 3/4 of those wins were against Purdue, vs  the horrible Hazel teams, whom we play every year anyway. The other win was against a winless (in conference games) Illinois team.  Ie.....every year we read posts that we should beat 2/3 or 1/3 of the Iowa, Minnesota type teams even through we rarely beat any of those types of teams.  

In a sign that I have have learned very little over the past decades :) After MSU I think we have a really good shot to beat one or two of those types of teams (this year’s version of Michigan, Northwestern etc) this season. Hope it happens as we need a bowl to help with recruiting mojo. In particular the speed/talent we are getting from Florida is having a positive impact that we need to continue.

The previous post........That is true, and I think that we got hosed when they split the league, but the East-West division started in 2014 and we are 4-9 vs the West with 3 of those wins being against Purdue (which has obviously since improved under Brohm) and the other was against an Illinois team that went 0-9.  I think we would have more “hope” in the West but so far the results say our record would not have changed to any great degree.

[Alford Bailey 12,356]

2 hours ago, DChoosier said:

I posted this a few weeks ago. We have a 4-9 record vs the West since that alignment has been in place. 3/4 of those wins were against Purdue, vs  the horrible Hazel teams, whom we play every year anyway. The other win was against a winless (in conference games) Illinois team.  Ie.....every year we read posts that we should beat 2/3 or 1/3 of the Iowa, Minnesota type teams even through we rarely beat any of those types of teams.  

In a sign that I have have learned very little over the past decades :) After MSU I think we have a really good shot to beat one or two of those types of teams (this year’s version of Michigan, Northwestern etc) this season. Hope it happens as we need a bowl to help with recruiting mojo. In particular the speed/talent we are getting from Florida is having a positive impact that we need to continue.

The previous post........That is true, and I think that we got hosed when they split the league, but the East-West division started in 2014 and we are 4-9 vs the West with 3 of those wins being against Purdue (which has obviously since improved under Brohm) and the other was against an Illinois team that went 0-9.  I think we would have more “hope” in the West but so far the results say our record would not have changed to any great degree.

Exactly. Good post.

[Loaded Chicken Sandwich 8,623]

The crazy thing about this season is that the team is absolutely good enough to beat Rutgers, Maryland, Nebraska and Northwestern and be 7-2. But this team is also 1 injury away from being 5-7(Penix going down). Maryland, Nebraska, NW and Purdue are on our level. This team could pull off an 8-4(5-4) record. That’s without beating OSU, MSU, PSU or UM. Though we definitely have s shot against UM with it being a home game.


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[JSHoosier 19,846]

I could agree there'd be more hope of we were in the rest.  I disagree that it'd actually make much, or any, difference.  Over the last 3 seasons we're 2-7 against the West, a sub .300 winning %.

[Old Friend 8,389]

1 hour ago, JSHoosier said:

I could agree there'd be more hope of we were in the rest.  I disagree that it'd actually make much, or any, difference.  Over the last 3 seasons we're 2-7 against the West, a sub .300 winning %.

The past has nothing to do with where we are now.  Depth and Penix make a huge difference.  We're better than Illinois and Purdue.  As good as Minnesota, Nebraska, and Northwestern, and I think competitive with Iowa.  In the East, there are 3 NCAA football blue bloods who will ALWAYS spend more money than Indiana and will ALWAYS have far greater recruiting clout.   While some in the west have more clout, I'd argue none have nearly as much as the "big 3" do in the east.

Indiana got screwed w divisions.   There's really no way around that, but damn, I want to beat Michigan.

[Loaded Chicken Sandwich 8,623]

The past has nothing to do with where we are now.  Depth and Penix make a huge difference.  We're better than Illinois and Purdue.  As good as Minnesota, Nebraska, and Northwestern, and I think competitive with Iowa.  In the East, there are 3 NCAA football blue bloods who will ALWAYS spend more money than Indiana and will ALWAYS have far greater recruiting clout.   While some in the west have more clout, I'd argue none have nearly as much as the "big 3" do in the east.
Indiana got screwed w divisions.   There's really no way around that, but damn, I want to beat Michigan.

You can say it’s the past, but Allen and this team have to prove they can beat Nebraska and Northwestern. The next 4 weeks are the biggest 4 weeks of Allen’s career. We can become bowl eligible after 8-9 games.


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[lucel15 3,052]

2 hours ago, Loaded Chicken Sandwich said:

The crazy thing about this season is that the team is absolutely good enough to beat Rutgers, Maryland, Nebraska and Northwestern and be 7-2. But this team is also 1 injury away from being 5-7(Penix going down). Maryland, Nebraska, NW and Purdue are on our level. This team could pull off an 8-4(5-4) record. That’s without beating OSU, MSU, PSU or UM. Though we definitely have s shot against UM with it being a home game.


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And that’s the crazy thing isn’t it yet don’t worry let’s fire him and move on, lol

we still have a great shot to do some good things, yet nobody who’s negatively attacked this team and Allen...will talk about the possibly attainable things....it’s poo poo because we haven’t won a huge game yet....which equates to our season is over. Let the “real season” start. So what happens if the basketball team Goes on an L steak again? Can the football fans start a fire Archie thread or will the poo pokers start that thread? Just wondering....

can IUFB win the winnable ones first and then start talking about it’s time to win the ranked games. I’d rather win these next 4 or heck go 3-1 and be sitting at 7-2 or 6-3 rather than whining about top 25 wins.....when no coach has really beat top 25 teams while at IU. But hey reversible jacket fans will fandom and argue what’s never been a thing at IU and that beating top 25 football teams. However if we do let’s say go 4-0 over this next stretch....I can still see some of the commenters on here saying well their teams have given up or they weren’t as good as everyone thought. Who gives a rats butt....if we win 4 or even 3 that’s bowling and sitting at a good mid season record then we have a bye week before we start our end of the season schedule. I’ll be there this weekend rain or shine. go Hoosiers. Also do you make a mean loaded chicken sandwich? Cuz I could go for one during this break of meetings today. We got crap subway catering. Lol. 

[Old Friend 8,389]

34 minutes ago, Loaded Chicken Sandwich said:

You can say it’s the past, but Allen and this team have to prove they can beat Nebraska and Northwestern. The next 4 weeks are the biggest 4 weeks of Allen’s career. We can become bowl eligible after 8-9 games.


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Sigh.   I have said this in one way or another 100 times.   If he doesn't produce, you'll all get your wish.   If he does?  You'll have to eat crow.  Why does the past matter one bit?  We have different players and different coaches.  I sincerely don't understand why that's been so difficult to understand.  NO coach has ever won until he has.  If he doesn't, he gets fired eventually.  It's not as if Indiana gave the guy a lifetime deal.

'I AM saying the past is the past and has nothing to do with where we are now.  Not every coach wins immediately or with someone else's players and scheme.  

[MoyeNeeded 3,073]

Amazing how much the needle moves on this thread even during a off week.

[mdn82 25,510]

Amazing how much the needle moves on this thread even during a off week.

I thought for sure Allen really did a piss poor job on Saturday. He couldn’t even win when there was no opposition. What a jerk. Let’s fire his @$$!!!



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[Loaded Chicken Sandwich 8,623]

Sigh.   I have said this in one way or another 100 times.   If he doesn't produce, you'll all get your wish.   If he does?  You'll have to eat crow.  Why does the past matter one bit?  We have different players and different coaches.  I sincerely don't understand why that's been so difficult to understand.  NO coach has ever won until he has.  If he doesn't, he gets fired eventually.  It's not as if Indiana gave the guy a lifetime deal.
'I AM saying the past is the past and has nothing to do with where we are now.  Not every coach wins immediately or with someone else's players and scheme.  

Right... but no one is going to believe a corner has been turned until they prove they can win the games they are supposed to. They have 5 chances to win 3 games. They can upset Michigan. Penn State can be written in sharpie as a loss for this season. If in 4 weeks they aren’t at least 5-4, why should anyone believe the program is going to get any better? This is ending up to be the absolute best opportunity at a great season we will have because of how the schedule has worked out and how those teams have performed. These next 4 games are going to make or break the season and show us if Allen is the guy or not.


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[Certified Sunshine Pumper 8,934]

I'm still dying at the ridiculousness of this thread.

[lucel15 3,052]

Fire him now. He did what he was supposed to do Against an abysmal Rutger!!!! Fire him immediately I can’t deal with being where we were slotted to be at this point.  Bahhhhhhummbug!!! Give me 6-0!!!!! 

[Hoosierfan2017 20,931]

14 minutes ago, lucel15 said:

Fire him now. He did what he was supposed to do Against an abysmal Rutger!!!! Fire him immediately I can’t deal with being where we were slotted to be at this point.  Bahhhhhhummbug!!! Give me 6-0!!!!! 

Wow, he beat perennial powerhouse Rutgers. Better give him a lifetime contract before someone else snatches him up. 

[Stuhoo 79,794]

;)