2019 Off-Season IU Roster News and Moves

[Brass Cannon]

1.5% is not basically the same. 

[Hillsdale87]

1.5% is not basically the same. 

It's the difference of 0.1 points per game across a 30 game season, so while yes, there's literally a difference, it's not an amount that has any impact.


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[ray]

8 minutes ago, Brass Cannon said:

1.5% is not basically the same. 

If we're talking about interest rates on a home mortgage or stock market returns, then I agree. 

When we're talking about Juwan shot 26/88 and Rob shot 27/87, then I disagree.

[Brass Cannon]

3 minutes ago, ray said:

If we're talking about interest rates on a home mortgage or stock market returns, then I agree. 

When we're talking about Juwan shot 26/88 and Rob shot 27/87, then I disagree.

You can disagree all you want that’s not how statistics work

[Hillsdale87]

You can disagree all you want that’s not how statistics work

If Juwan had also shot 27-87 instead of 26-88, would that have had any impact on the season or changed the way anybody defended IU? A difference that small is as likely to be explained by luck as by skill

If you removed all of Juwan's attempts and just doubled Rob's numbers, we would have scored 3 extra points over 35 games. That's immaterial


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[Brass Cannon]

11 minutes ago, Free Jurkin! said:

If Juwan had also shot 27-87 instead of 26-88, would that have had any impact on the season or changed the way anybody defended IU? A difference that small is as likely to be explained by luck as by skill

If you removed all of Juwan's attempts and just doubled Rob's numbers, we would have scored 3 extra points over 35 games. That's immaterial


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3 points is not immaterial. Games are won or lost by that many all the time. 

And using Rob as an example is flawed. When healthy he was shooting a lot better than 1.5% better than Juwan yet, Juwan was still right up there with him on attempts. 

Coaches a lot of time look at Points per 100 possessions. A 1.5% increase in shooting 3s is a big deal on that metric. 

 

[ray]

58 minutes ago, Brass Cannon said:

3 points is not immaterial. Games are won or lost by that many all the time. 

And using Rob as an example is flawed. When healthy he was shooting a lot better than 1.5% better than Juwan yet, Juwan was still right up there with him on attempts. 

Coaches a lot of time look at Points per 100 possessions. A 1.5% increase in shooting 3s is a big deal on that metric. 

 

I used many examples beyond Rob, but regardless, it's not flawed.  Rob played the games and took the shots.  The stats aren't flawed. We're talking about stats in the record books, not what if's.  If anything is flawed in this argument, then it's your attempt to erase some of Rob Phinisee's misses because he was hurt and had to come back from an injury.  I think he'll shoot better next year, but there's no taking away the shots he missed.

My point was there were only two reliable three-point shooters on last year's team.  They shot a combined 88-232...or 37.9%.  The "rest" of the team (Rob Phinisee, Evan Fitzner, Juwan Morgan, Romeo Langford, and Justin Smith) shot a combined 111-387...or 28.6%.  I broke down different combinations earlier to prove that there were only two decent three-point shooters.

 

And three points in one game can change a lot, but we're talking about three points over an entire season of 35 games.

 

Using your metric mentioned above), and this assumes the player shoots a 3-pointer in every possession for 100 possessions (which neither even shot 100 3's for the entire season):

Rob Phinisee - 31 made 3-pointers = 93 points

Juwan Morgan - 29.5 made 3-pointers = 88.5 points

That's a difference of 4.5 points in 100 attempts, which neither even reached (less than half of a point per game, assuming they actually shot 100 threes).

BUT...the season is over and the shots have already been taken, so the real difference is 3 points divided by 35 games (0.08 points per game).  Even if you want to consider the swing of Juwan missing one additional three pointer, that's still only 6 points OR (0.17 points per game).  And my initial argument wasn't even about how Rob Phinisee's shooting should be compared to Juwan Morgan's.  My initial argument was that beyond Al Durham (40-115) and Devonte Green (48-117), no one else shot well (111-387).

 

Yes, you're right we could argue all day.  1.5% means a lot if we consider a compounding effect, but the numbers are static.  The shots have already been taken.  The results are in. 

And I agree with the original poster that Juwan and Romeo took too many threes, but with the exception of two players, the same could be said for the remainder of the team.

 

[monskisprodigy]

Guys, I love numbers as much as the next guy, and always enjoy a good argument in April over 1.5% and the impact of 3 points over 35 games, but I was wondering if there is anyone else out there to throw a scholly at? Or are we looking to bank those if Quiones or Watford choose to take their talents elsewhere. 

I have heard that there doesn't appear to be any real interest in Windham on IU's side. 

[HinnyHoosier]

The Athletic put out its Big Ten power rankings for the upcoming season and had IU 10th. Yikes. This program has fallen off a cliff. IU just has no clue how to compete at the major conference level in both revenue sports..

I'll put stock in what the Athletic has to say when pigs fly. I get that your point is a representative one, but still. Lists like that made in April are why Twitter handles like Freezing Cold Takes exist.


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[MoyeNeeded]

1 hour ago, Iugradman said:

The Athletic put out its Big Ten power rankings for the upcoming season and had IU 10th. Yikes. This program has fallen off a cliff. IU just has no clue how to compete at the major conference level in both revenue sports..

Go back to your cave!

[Walking Boot of Doom]

Go back to your cave!

RAAAWWRRR


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[RaceToTheTop]

9 hours ago, Brass Cannon said:

I wouldn’t call 1.5% difference basically the same. Besides his non-concussion numbers are better. 

It is in the context of 88 attempts.

[Brass Cannon]

1 minute ago, brumdog45 said:

It is in the context of 88 attempts.

That equates to about 4 points. Hardly insignificant. 

[Feathery]

Statistically speaking isn’t 34% the magic number you want to be above when shooting 3’s?  I thought the goal was to be above 34% because that means you are scoring more than if you were shooting 2’s at a 50% rate. Obviously we want as many players as high above that as possible. But I always view 34% as the breaking point. 

[CrossboneIU22]

Looks like anyone wishing for Windham can kiss those wishes goodbye.

[CrossboneIU22]

Jdub‏ @Gohamjdub

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The wait is over. Excited to be a BlueJay  #LETITFLY #ROLLJAYS  @cucoachmac

 

4:30 PM - 24 Apr 2019 from Indianapolis, IN

[Crimson and Cream]

1 minute ago, CrossboneIU22 said:

Jdub‏ @Gohamjdub

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The wait is over. Excited to be a BlueJay  #LETITFLY #ROLLJAYS  @cucoachmac

 

4:30 PM - 24 Apr 2019 from Indianapolis, IN

That was quick. Didn't they just offer him?

[HinnyHoosier]

Go back to your cave!

"I wish I had a lair..."

-Dwight Schrute


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[Brass Cannon]

20 minutes ago, Feathery said:

Statistically speaking isn’t 34% the magic number you want to be above when shooting 3’s?  I thought the goal was to be above 34% because that means you are scoring more than if you were shooting 2’s at a 50% rate. Obviously we want as many players as high above that as possible. But I always view 34% as the breaking point. 

Yep basically you shouldn’t shoot more than one a game if you can’t hit them at a 34% clip. Excluding heaves at the end of a clock  

We had several people shooting that many  maybe for a bad shooting team like us there’s gotta be some leniency on the rule  but no reason a guy shooting under 30% should ever shoot 2-3 a game  

 

[Kepner]

39 minutes ago, Crimson and Cream said:

That was quick. Didn't they just offer him?

I remember reading their name as being a school that reached out when he decommitted from Georgia St. Looks like he just finished an official visit and committed at the end of the visit